UK 19:03 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Sirius Minerals (SXX), the ambitious company seeking to exploit the world’s largest and highest-grade deposit of the high-nutrient agricultural fertiliser Polyhalite, has withdrawn one of its planning applications for the project, in the North York Moors National Park, for ‘re-tweaking’ and re-submission. But managing director Chris Fraser is still pushing ahead with off-take deals to help fund the £1 billion-plus York Potash project and the company, which hopes to be in production by 2018 if all now goes well, insists it could have the green light by May and then be on its way from a quote on AIM with a £182 million stockmarket value to membership of the FTSE 100 share index of the most heavily-capitalised companies in Britain.
Already a member? Sign in
• All premium articles
• Tom Winnifrith’s Bearcast
• Access to all the entire nearly 13 year archive
• ShareProphets Daily Newsletter
Cancel any time
This area of the ShareProphets.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ShareProphets.com. ShareProphets.com does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ShareProphets.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ShareProphets.com and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.
Comments
DUCK AND DIVE
Extraordinary piece of old-news puffery which should accurately have been headlined:
“Decision day delayed for Sirius Minerals”.
I’m a shareholder but I don’t like fairy tales.
Stephen Peel
If they produce 13 million tonnes a year and sell that for $150 per tonne then revenue would be $2 billion a year. This is the size that they estimate for the whole market. That means a price war and a drop in margins. It would therefore be relevant to know the production costs of the other producers as whoever has the lowest costs would have the upper hand. You would also need to know the location of the biggest consumers and producers because transport costs would be a factor. In short, I don’t think they will be able to achieve revenues of $2 billion annually. Or even $1 billion. Maybe $250 million with a gross profit of $150 million, call it £100 million. Then they have to service their “high debt element” and pay taxes and the like. Maybe they can make £40 million a year net profit starting 3 or 4 year’s from now. Given that target, they look pretty fully valued to me.