The working year starts a proper and I am in a good mood which is bad news for the low life on the AIM Casino. On the agenda today: Enegi Oil, LGO Oil, Iofina, Mosman Oil & Gas, oil stocks, Chris Oil & his share tips, Naibu, Jiasen, Camkids and China Chaintek ( the China Norfolks), Quindell, and - in some detail - Tern.
Christmas is over. On my weekly visit to supermarkets on Saturday both Morrisons (MRW) and Aldi were noticeably less busy. Morrisons in particular- about four weeks ago there were around double the number of shoppers in store. Huddersfield’s ‘nightlife’ was quieter on Saturday too, significantly. Some clubs didn’t even open.
So we start the year with the oil price still at the front of our minds and falling and I have to say I'm not sure what stops it going quite a lot lower and $40 seems to be the next low point possibly. Now I don't want to spoil what we are writing in the next VSA Quarterly as I know you are all looking forward to reading it - such an important release - haa haaa, well we put a lot of effort into to it so I'm not giving it all away just yet but do look at this chart of the oil price since 1861 in real terms and tell me if you think oil might go lower and stay low.
This is the closest I am going to get to tipping a mining stock in a hurry – Fox Marble (FOX) might own mines but it is essentially a building materials stock. This should be a boring and dull business. To date it as not been.
After its interim update the other day Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) has to be my top share tip of the year for 2015.
In the light of my two articles regarding Tern’s (TERN) RNSs of 15 and 17 Sept 2014 HERE and HERE which pointed to incorrect information regarding share issues, conversion of debt and the acquisition of Cryptosoft it is clear that Tern and its hapless Nomad WH Ireland will have had to cobble together a response tomorrow if they are to pretend that they give a fart about AIM Rules . Ever helpful, ShareProphets can bring that RNS to you today…
To lose one director in December is unfortunate but to lose two looks like carelessness but that is what Volex (VLX) managed, parting company with its FD after just 18 months in the job and with a well-respected NED – with immediate effect - on New Year’s eve. The truth is that this is just not a very good company - my pal Paul Scott put it more succinctly the other day in an enthusiastic daily Stockopedia report. At 70.5p, capitalised at £64 million it is a slam dunk sell.
I am glad to see that Chris Bailey is calling gold and gold stocks as a buy in his 2015 macro themes out today. As a gold bug that is music to my ears. I am still a believer! As is Jeb Handwerger. the editor of GoldStockTrades.com who was interviewed this week by my colleagues at Palisade Capital. Jeb explains clearly why this bombed out sector will rebound in 2015 but also why you have to be selective and how to be selective.
Anyone owning a Chinese based AIM stock is certifiably bonkers. That is especially the case if it is based in Fujian Province, a small part of the PRC which has specialised in listing frauds on AIM, the Frankfurt Exchange, the TSX and NASDAQ. The Fujian four on AIM are: Camkids (CAMK), Naibu (NBU), China Chaintek (CTEK) and Jiasen International (JSI) and for all four my ultimate target price is 0p. But I feature Jiasen today at 42.5p as a sell of the year.
This year I changed my title on LinkedIn to ‘Share Investor’. There was no hiding anymore (even though I had it listed already). This is what I defined myself as. And even if you’re doing another full time job too, I believe it will help you. As a share investor your job is to make the best possible return you can from shares. I personally see my job as a share investor to make as much money as I properly can to invest in more shares as well.
George Papandreou is back in the game in Greece. This is big news and in this podcast I suggest a small bet on Greek equities on bonds might be in order as a result. Do elections matter for equity investors? I discuss both Greece and also the UK election in May.
TW has already been on the blower to say that events have overtaken us on Theme 2 but we shall see. There are 14 other themes that are certainly in the game.
Following the investor excitement surrounding UK onshore plays in 2014, followed by the damp squib at Horse Hill and then a plunging oil price, my first 2015 tip of the year is a fully funded low cost play - . Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG) at a 5.75p offer.
On Friday I highlighted a number of inconsistencies in two RNS released by Tern plc (TERN)regarding the acquisition of Cryptosoft and issues of shares which you can read HERE. It gets worse.
As I explained in my Christmas Day 10 macro themes for 2015 I generally cautious on UK equities – hence my decision to run with 5 buys and 5 sells in my NY selection (three more to come by Sunday night). As such my seventh tip is one you may deem cautious but I see 35% capital upside in it plus dividends and very limited downside. I refer to Stanley Gibbons (SGI), a buy at a 290p offer and at up to 300p with a target of 400p.
Having initially requisitioned an EGM to ‘bring about much-needed change’ at EMED Mining (EMED), it has been announced that multinational commodities group Trafigura in conjunction with other cornerstone investors in EMED, Orion Mine Finance and Xiangguang International, has now conditionally agreed a $24 million, and up to $30 million, bridging finance facility with the company in conjunction with Ronnie Beevor, Isaac Querub Caro, Ashwath Mehra and Bob Francis all agreeing to resign from the board, with a new Chairman (Roger Davey) and CEO (Alberto Lavandeira) appointed.
Mark Howitt has today penned an article slating writers who write about shares they do not own. He is a young man, naïve of the ways of the world and – with respect – an amateur talking out of his arse and here is why.
Right this a more ‘personal’ article than most but it’s something that’s been on my mind for a while. I really don’t understand why some share writers will constantly praise a share... and then not own it. Literally on some sites some writers will write probably hundreds of articles often being in favour of a share, praising it and saying how it is good value, lauding its competitive advantages... and then not own the share. It just makes me wonder.
2014 was a disappointing year for Standard and Chartered (STAN) the long established, deep rooted South East Asian and African banking group. The conditions for commercial and profitable recovery did not materialize in the first half to 30 June 2014 and there were several episodes of downgrading of expectations by the management which had self-evidently not been reflected in previous market consensus profit estimates.
Following complaints from shamed share ramper Roger Lawson, ADVFN has insisted on a raft of new editorial controls on OneFreeShareTip.com. I did not re-start my life five years ago to be told what I could or could not write. I said no and ADVFN boss Clem Chambers has just said that the website will be shut down. So...our hand is forced ... Welcome to fivefreesharetips.com - we hope you join NOW HERE.
As seen here, Telit's (TCM) distributers are a, um, diverse lot, including a distributer in Vietnam that appears to be a scooter courier firm. Which is nice, and thank you for sponsoring this week's Bulletin Board Moron search.
The failure of the LSE to insist that hapless Nomad FinnCap forces Telit (TCM) to bring in a firm like KPMG to conduct a full forensic review will hurt it even more when this company goes tits up as I noted in a letter to Stock Exchange boss Donald Brydon earlier today HERE. Two sources tell me that the FBI may have bad news for the Boston fraudster Oozi Cats and his Mrs as I explain in this podcast. But the meat of the podcast is explaining why Telit will go tits up and why that could be within six weeks. Enjoy.
You may remember that at the last AGM of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) its chairman,, Donald Brydon CBE, 'fessed up to being a ShareProphets reader and as we chatted afterwards he came over as a thoroughly decent man. But he has, yet again, been failed by his minions in their handling of the biggest AIM fraud of the year, so far, Telit (TCM). Lowly gofers such as the head of AIM Regulation, the fake Sheriff Mr Marcus Stuttad, have allowed Telit to avoid any independent scrutiny of its accounts & business practices despite clear evidence of fraud. That has to change and maybe Brydon will push for that. I have sent him a letter.
If you read the bent, freebie is our middle name, personal financie columnists in the deadwood press, fund manager Neil Woodford walks on water. I disagree and have noted before, that, maybe, after three dismal years, others are starting to see the light. But, with assistance from a leading broker, how about we have a real look at the Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) but also at the sort of dogs Neil ifalls in love with.
VSA is house broker to Obtala (OBT) so is not impartial. Neither am I as we own a small number of shares following a Dragon's Den pitch as the 2017 UK Investor Show. But the price target suggests real upside and VSA's research team is well regarded and since we happily published an uber-negative piece from Evil Banksta the other day, this offers some balance. VSA has tweaked its forecasts
You may remember that ShareProphets poster Drunken Sailor and I were co-defendants in a libel case a couple of years ago ( which we won). Mr sailor is not a drunk and he is a great sleuth when he wants to be. My pressing concerns about uber ramped Bushveld Minerals (BMN) are its balance sheet, but DS has unearthed another major issue which, for some reason, Bushveld has not covered in an RNS. Perhaps it might do so now? Drunken's post merits a wider audience:
Like Richard Poulden, CEO of PCG Entertainment (PCGE), I have a bit of time for Brian Kinane at Riverfort. As someone who believes in transparency and clear communication, my view is that Brian is trying to bring some of that to the world of small cap funding, particularly where the dreaded phrase “ death spiral” is concerned and there’s a few points here to be applauded. It still doesn’t prevent the obvious question being aimed at Mr Poulden though – WHY RAISE MORE FUNDS NOW?
Some folks think that handing out share options to senior staff is a cost free exercise and b) benefits all shareholders as it incentivizes the board and also aligns their interests with those of stockholders. Bollocks on all counts.
Following the postponement of a significant contract announced at the end of last month, SRT Marine Systems (SRT) has now announced an “AIS Aids to Navigation Contract”, including that “the order is for the world's biggest single deployment of AIS AtoN”. The world's biggest hey, sounds impressive!…
Having reached more than 75p in May, shares in information management technology and services company Idox (IDOX) declined below 60p early last month before recovering above 65p - then declining towards 60p again. The company is now “pleased to announce that it has acquired… Halarose, a supplier of electoral back office software and services to UK local authorities, for £5.0 million, comprising £3.5 million in cash and £1.5 million in shares” (at 61.5p)…
Hello Share Grafters. The congestion in most of our airports will give you the heads-up that air travel is booming. It will continue to do so, especially as more people from developing countries become middle class. But you may still be wary of big airlines.
After a stack of RNSs earlier this year, it has all gone quiet at AIM-listed Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) since the announcement of the termination of the Bracknor death-spiral. How’s the cash position?
Drilling services company Capital Drilling (CAPD) has announced results for the first half of 2017, including that an initial uplift in activity has broadened with an improving outlook in industrial metals and capital markets activities support. Why then are the shares further lower, below 40p, having been above 60p earlier this year?...
From the FCA's spreadsheet of short positions required to be disclosed to it, the following shows the shorted AIM shares with positions from 2016 and thus far in 2017 (by net short position %) - and if this position has increased (red), reduced (green) or remained unchanged (black) since last week...
Previously writing on System1 Group (SYS1), then named BrainJuicer Group, as the shares slid below 700p I concluded there still, despite self-admitted “limited revenue visibility”, a clear lack of a Benjamin Graham ‘margin of safety’ (”for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck” e.g. an earnings miss or negative change in stock market sentiment) and I thus continued to avoid. The shares have though recently been above 800p… until a “Trading Update” announcement today…
In the piss poor results for the six months to 30 June 2017, Telit (TCM) highlighted that it had purchased GainSpan and provided the following rather limited commentary on its contribution to the interim results:
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