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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the death of Brian Conlon of First Derivatives

Published 30 July 2019, 15:20

I doubt I shall be invited to the funeral given the stuff I have written about First Derivatives (FDP). I have been vindicated on that matter but the early death of Conlon is a shame and my thoughts are with his family. None the less I discuss what happens next as the chief plate spinner goes to another place.

Five slam-dunk sells for 2019 – March edition, as Walcom struggles on (just)

Published 24 March 2019, 03:29

Last month one of the five had its denouement as AIM-listed Haydale (HAYD) had an emergency bailout  - as long predicted by me -  at only 2p. That left just four. My suspicion was that AIM-listed member of the Filthy Forty, Walcom (WALG) would be next with its head under the guillotine and the news there was only marginally better as death has been postponed to June.

August performance update: start of 2019 shorted AIM shares

Published 4 September 2019, 09:27

Early this year we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2019. How's the performance at the end of August? (those in bold remain from 2018)...

2019 performance update: start of year shorted AIM shares

Published 2 January 2020, 16:52

Early in 2019 we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2019. How did they perform? (those in bold remain from 2018)...

Tom Winifrith Bearcast - Distracted by an illegitimate great grandmother as Robbie Burns offers to kill me

Published 8 October 2018, 11:24

The somewhat obscure headline references are explained in the podcast suffice to say Mr Burns is a top guy and no Darren Winters as implied yesterday. At a company level I look at Accesso Technology (ASCO), Diurnal Group (DNL), First Derivatives (FDP), SalvarX (SALV), Sosandar (SOS) and Akers Bioscionces (AKR) and a most extraordinary statement from it today.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: If First Derivatives only wants questions about how big its CEO's cock is I have a nasty surprise for it

Published 18 January 2019, 09:07

In today's podcast I have some bad news for Bath Spa as the Mrs prepares to head to the Grim North relating to what happened after I gave this talk. I also have bad news for First Derivatives (FDP) as it prepares for a "Capital markets Day" session of mutual masturbation with the dumb sell side analysts and even dimmer fund managers who have stuffed other folks cash into this stock. I cover Totally (TLY), Wishbone (WSBN), Ariana (AAU), Quadrise Fuels (QFI) and Richoux (RIC) 

First Derivatives – top broker Berenberg slashes target price by more than 50%

Published 7 January 2019, 05:09

Oops a daisy. It looks as if some folks in the City have finally been reading our exposes on First Derivatives (FDP) and are finally waking up to the issues of cash generation, or rather lack of it. Top broker Berenberg was a major bull but has slashed its target price, as you can see in the full note below, from £43 to just £21.  Welcome to the party fellows but you are still way too generous – fair value is well under £10 a share.

D day Looms for First Derivatives - keep selling

Published 28 October 2018, 14:04

It could be that the current market turbulence is no more than an entry point for easily the most successful investment strategy of the last ten years: BTFD (Buy the Fucking dips) but I sense that this time we might be about to discover who has been swimming without trunks.

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: A German Deal for Purplebricks - the land of milk & Hun-ny?

Published 15 October 2018, 13:45

First things first - we have almost raised the £2,500 needed for the Woodlarks Christmas grotto. I am sure you can spare a fiver to get us over the line HERE. Secondly, I am in London tomorrow and on the warpath and hope to see many of you HERE.  I was distracted today doing a radio interview with my friend and hero the great Kelvin McKenzie of "gotcha!" fame. That covered Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) and fraud and I continue with that theme. I also look at Superdry (SDRY), First Derivatives (FDP), Frontera (FRR) and Purplebricks (PURP). 

January performance update: start of 2019 shorted AIM shares

Published 7 February 2019, 07:41

Early this year we showed the Shorted AIM shares at the start of 2019. After the first month of the year, here's the monthly update on performance (those in bold remain from 2018)...

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 26: A two and a half hour bear special with Lucian Miers and David Scott

Published 11 June 2021, 16:44

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, sparky interviews with two great bears and some thoughts from myself. First up is the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers followed by David Scott of Andrews Gwynne. Stocks to short and buy, asset allocation, macro-economics, it is all covered You can access the show HERE 

5 Slam-dunk sells for 2019 – the final reckoning

Published 5 January 2020, 15:20

My slam-dunk sells for 2019 came home ahead, but only 8% down on their starting prices. Of the five, Haydale (HAYD) was an early success as the rescue bailout I had long predicted it needed finally arrived…..and smashed the shares from 31.5p at the start of the year to a couple of pence.

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 17: Well over 2 hours with a professional comedian and a bloke who runs an AIM listed company. Boom Boom.

Published 6 February 2021, 17:28

It is such a good joke I think I make it about 5 times in what follows. And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with  Harry Adams of Kefi Gold & Copper (KEFI), where i am a loyal shareholder expecting the shares to double or more by mid year, and also Dominic Frisby. The singer, songwriter, comedian, gold guru, bitcoin expert and libertarian is on great form especially on the bitcoin/gold issue and tips the only AIM stock he owns and explains why. You will laugh and learn with him. You can access the show HERE

Five slam-dunk sells for 2019 – early July edition

Published 7 July 2019, 13:02

With the Neil Woodford debacle I’ve taken my eye off the ball here – many apologies. So here is an update on my five AIM sells for 2019, the first since the end of March.

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 20: 2 hours of gold, flashbacks to 2001, value investing and Kerim Sener

Published 3 March 2021, 09:53

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with  Kerim Sener of Ariana Resources (AAU), where I am a loyal shareholder, and then with the sorcerer’s apprentice Steve Moore on the markets and on what he owns. You can access the show HERE 

Tom Winnifrith Shareshow No 6: 2 hours 17 mins of Richard Poulden on the collapse of the west and of empires, Kerim Sener of Ariana and me on Supply@ME capital and 6 more shorts

Published 27 July 2020, 09:16

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new, I hope, weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch some sparky interviews with Richard Poulden on the collapse of empires but also of the West at every level.  Also covered is the death of oil and how we should save our finances against such a backdrop and with Kerim Sener of Ariana (AAU). I also explain why Supply@ME Capital (SYME) is a crooked zero and I review the six short ideas from the previous five shows, one of which is already a zero. You can access the show HERE

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 24: Almost two and a half hours of Steve O'Hara, oil guru & IT failure Peter Brailey and myself

Published 30 April 2021, 17:22

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Optibiotix (OPTI) boss Steve O’Hara and oil guru Peter Brailey.  There is also me. I am a big investor in Optibiotix but explain why I am angry but not selling and challenge Peter on how to play oil plus he and I discuss the most overvalued stock on the Standard List, a total joke capitalised at almost £100 million, worth c£1 million.You can access the show HERE 

Tom Winnifrith Shareshow No 3: Well over 2 hours of Peter Brailey on oil, gas and oil stocks, Skinbiotherapeutics CEO and myself on why Intu and Amigo will both be zeros

Published 21 June 2020, 17:37

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new, I hope, weekly show. This costs 99p per episode to access and you can either listen or watch very sparky interviews with our in house oil guru Peter Brailey not holding back with a new explicit warning on gas, Stuart Ashman of Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) who was so impressive I have just bought more shares and myself on how gravity cannot be defied forever with reference to zeros in waiting, Amigo (AMGO) and Intu (INTU).  You can access the show HERE

Five slam-dunk shares to sell for 2019

Published 1 January 2019, 02:43

Following on from my five to sell for 2018, which resulted in a gain of 38% as a bear, 2019 seems to offer more pickings. After all, the markets are very wobbly and we have the chaos of Brexit to look forward to. So here are my five to dump now for 2019.

5 Slam-dunk sells for 2019 – December update

Published 16 December 2019, 08:28

We are almost at year-end and my collection of sells from the start of the year looks fairly set for its second deletion. But how are the others doing, given that at the last count my notional portfolio of sells was down 13% (ie to sell had been the correct call)?...

 

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