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Over the next seven days I shall serve up seven tips for 2013. There should be something for everyone. In assembling this magnificent seven I start with company fundamentals and price. But I also take into account my macro-economic assumptions for the next 12 months. And, I am sorry to say, that I am not terribly cheery. I do not see UK GDP growing rapidly. Credit will be hard to obtain and consumer spending will not be strong. As such there is some merit in starting with a solid defensive play and that brings me to fully listed S&U (SUS) at a share price of 915.25p.
I have always been a fan of Greggs (GRG) the UK’s largest retailer of sausage rolls, puff pastries and all the other sort of comfort food that helped me to become a diabetic. The company has always had net cash, benefitted from operational gearing and delivered solid year on year earnings increases. But in 2012 things appeared to start to go slightly awry and the share price has fallen from 550p at the start of the year to 458p. As recently as 7th November I foreasaw a bounce ( at 470p) but I have been reviewing my assumptions about UK consumer behaviour. As such I apologise for that bad call, a volte face is on the way.I would like to buy this stock as fundamentally it is a good business serving six million Britons each week. But ....
I have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment.
Like many junior miners, AIM listed Highland Gold Mining (HGM) has seen its share price decimated during 2012. The stock traded at 197p at the start of the year but now sits at 91p valuing the Russian based gold producer at just shy of £300 million. Indeed during the past few weeks as folks have worried that the great bull run in the gold price is about to end the shares have lost 20%. I do not think gold is heading lower. So is Highland a recovery buy or is the sell-off only just beginning? I sense we may be close to the bottom.
During my twelve years at t1ps.com I tipped fully listed Domino’s Pizza twice. The first time was in June 2001 at 62p – I advised selling at 693p in 2007 (a gain of 1018%). The next time I tipped the shares at 193p in July 2008. The share price is now 494p. Not a bad return for share tip given that there is a decent dividend stream on top. But now we face not only a Christmas trading statement * due out January 8th) but also full year numbers (for the 53 weeks to December 30th) which will be out on 25th February. I am a bit nervous about soft consumer spending, fearing that on the high street at least Christmas will be a washout. So what should one do with Domino’s which is today capitalised at £810 million.
AIM-listed staffing and outsourced support services company, Impellam (IPEL) is a big success from my time at t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and edited until September of this year when I departed to launch the Nifty Fifty offering. I recommended the shares on t1ps at a share price of 40p in September 2009. Today the stock trades at 315p valuing the company at £141 million after a trading update yesterday. This is still a great long term buy.
An EGM held in Toronto on December 19th has given approval for Aim and TSX listed copper mine developer EMED (EMED) to go ahead with a $50 million financing package from metals group Red Kite including a share investment at 14.8p. Shareholders have also been treated to an update on the development of the Spanish Rio Tinto project from CEO Harry Adams.
AIM-listed non-life insurance company, Gable Holdings (GAH), has been something of a star share price performer recently – the shares having commenced 2012 trading at 22.125p and now at a year high of 39p. I first recommended these shares on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and edited until this September when I left to start the Nifty Fifty, at 18.5p in July 2006 – so this has been something of a slow burner which is now sparking into life as a red hot penny share. This is particularly gratifying as I gave an updated view on the company last month, with the shares then at 31.5p, concluding that “the shares would not be particularly expensive at double current levels and believe there materially more gains to come for shareholders here. Still a buy at up to 37p in my view with a target of 60p”. The following reviews a new business announcement from the company today and the outlook from here...
Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) has today published a pretty disastrous statement on results from its Scotia well. The shares have plunged to 37.5p. I am sorry for those who have lost money but I warned folks to sell this at 67.5p on 19th July and again at 69.5p on 17th September. I also warned folks to bail out of fellow Falklands Play Borders & Southern (BOR) at 32.5p on August 27th. Its shares are now 16.875p. Those siren calls were greeted with hoots of Bulletin Board derision, I am not expecting any apologies or praise today. Perhaps the BB loons will not take note of the new situation today
It has today been announced that the reverse takeover of long-term disappointment, IT managed services provider, Nexus Management (NXS) has been completed and that the enlarged company has been readmitted to AIM as Enables IT Group (EIT). I need no reminding of what an appalling tip Nexus was for me. During my 12 year stint at t1ps.com MY average gain per tip was 42.7%. Nexus pulled down that average badly. So do we stick with the new group?
On 21st November AM and TSX listed gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) announced a material upgrade to its resource estimate for the Don Nicolas project in Argentina. The Measured and Indicated Resources have been increased by 23% to 468,000 ounces of gold. The economic effect of this is to increase the life of the mine estimate, something assisted by a 14% increased in the inferred resource estimate, to 165,000 ounces of gold. This has prompted broker Fox Davies to set a target price for the shares (56p today) of 116p.I do not entirely disagree with its analysis and here is why.
I recommended shares in fully-listed Anglesey Mining (AYM) on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and edited until leaving this September to set up the Nifty Fifty. That share tip was at 11.75p in October 2009. They subsequently raced ahead and I am kicking myself for, particularly in 2011, not banking a very significant profit. Today the shares trade down at just over 7p as the company’s current key value driver, Canada-listed Labrador Iron Mines in which Anglesey holds 19.73% of the shares, has been heavily impacted by very significant late Summer falls in the price of iron ore.
Fully listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) has today provided a market update on its various woes and at two levels it does not sound good at all. And it is not just me saying this, it seems that some brokers agree. To hoots of Bulletin Board derision I warned folks repeatedly ( when the shares were much higher than today’s 60.2p) that Centamin was a sell.
AIM-listed, South Africa-focussed precious metals miner Pan African Resources (PAF) is a big winner from my days at t1ps.com – the website I departed in September after twelve years. I recommended the shares there at 2.6875p in November 2005 and they currently trade at 20p a gain of 644%. The following reviews an announcement the company has made today about a c£50 million right issue and whether there remains more share price upside to come…
AIM listed travel leisure and property group Minoan (MIN) has not been one of my better share tips from my days at t1ps but news out this week points the way to it being, potentially, a great recovery play for 2013. At 8.375p the company is now valued at £12.6 million. That does look far too low for me and this is why.
AIM listed SnackTime (SNAK) is a terribly disappointing investment recommendation from my twelve years running t1ps.com – I tipped the shares at 145p in May 2009 and it has not been a red hot penny share. The stock is now 17.5p – I apologise. Although my average gain on that site was 42.7% there were some bad tips and this was one of them. The seller and operator of hot drink and snack vending machines across the UK yesterday announced results for the six months ended 30th September and the following reviews these and where to go from here…
Regulatory approval for EMED Mining (EMED): Great news we have been waiting so long for this news. But sadly this is not the final Spanish permits needed to get the giant Rio Tinto copper mine underway but news from Slovakia. Meanwhile broker Fox Davies reckons that the shares could treble from 10.625p to 32p. I think it is correct. But to Slovakia first.
Ortac Resources (OTC), the AIM listed developer of a gold mine in the Slovak Republic is today hosting an analysts jolly and has announced as much via RNS. Is it worth the trip? Is there value there?
My July 2006 recommendation on t1ps.com (the site I founded in 2000 and edited until this September) of shares in specialist IT recruitment group, InterQuest (ITQ) is not one which has covered me in glory. Having tipped the shares at 67.5p, they traded above 80p until economic conditions darkened in the second quarter of 2008. A low of 30.5p was hit in February 2009 and the shares again traded at sub 35p in August of this year. Having recovered a bit, to a current 49p, the company has served up a trading statement today so do you buy sell or hold?
I think that my views on fully listed Egyptian Gold miner Centamin (CEY) are well known. For me the great risk is a political one – I trust the Islamofascist Muslim Brotherhood rulers of Egypt less than I’d trust an 1970s Radio 1 DJ to do a spot of babysitting. But Fox Davies has another concern: the fuel subsidy.
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