In a long podcast I explain why the climate has changed so making it a year for the bears and then explain the common thread and individual reasons for my top ten shorts for Christmas 2022.  The terrible ten are Supply@ME Capital (SYME), Tern (TERN), Avacta (AVCT), Versarien (VRS), Chill Brands (FRAUD), Amigo (AMGO),Cineworld (CINE), Argo Blockchain (ARB), Verditek (VDTK) and Wildcat Petroleum (WCAT) 

The supply chain crisis triggered by governmental responses to COVID 19 has led to a massive focus on supply chains and efficient financing of those supply chains.  The acquisition of Taulia by SAP a $920 billion dollar market capitalisation business and the launch of Eliant Inventory Solutions backed by Apollo (a private equity giant) partnered with BNP Paribas and GEP a major supply chain specialist show that the financial sector is now actively mobilising to take advantage of these opportunities.

As I revealed in my previous article concerning Ms Lingerie on Expenses, Julie Meyer’s latest car crash investment Drive Software Solutions Limited is on the verge of going under. This will, I predict, see her facing yet another regulator on her case, adding to her woes with the IRS, HMRC and the FCA with its ongoing criminal investigation.

This is the third financial bubble of my professional career, and I would say the most dangerous because it covers many different asset classes, especially equities and bonds, and for the first time in history it is global.

Here are five long reads that have nothing to do with shares. Put the kettle on, find a comfy chair. You have the time, don’t you? 
 

It has been another busy week and – despite the fact it is half term holiday time for some – it will be another  hectic seven days for a bunch of corporate news, macroeconomic matters and geopolitical discussions.  If you want a quiet life in the investment world then wait for Christmas.  One stock that reported over the last week but which I have not had an opportunity yet to comment on is PZ Cusson (PZC) which ‘builds brands to serve consumers better with Hygiene, Baby and Beauty at our core’ in brands such as Carex, St. Tropez, Cussons Baby, Sanctuary Spa, Morning Fresh (depending on which part of the world you live in). 

Grab a cup of tea, sit back, and test your knowledge against the other ShareProphets members. Write your score in the comments, there are no prizes, and most important of all – no Googling! TW Note I apologise profusely to those like me idetifying as Irish for the two awful gaffes in Question 1. I suggest we all start calling Darren an American.

Gold closed the week at $1859 – well up on last week’s $1808 and the highest since November when it briefly went to $1867. Before that, the last high point was at the end of May last year at $1908, and then the all-time high at $2063 in August 2020. My view is that all of these marks could get taken out in pretty short order: inflation still rages and there is a potential catastrophe looming in Ukraine.

These are the most-read articles and most listened-to Bearcasts of the week. The most-read article non-Tom article is once again by me, the ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #127. The most-read non-Tom, non-Darren article is Investors should not worry like this, Can the home of “Crystal Methodist” really be so sanctimonious about a sex scandal? by Chris Bailey at number 10 or number 17 excluding bearcasts.

I comment on a kind post one of you made on the LSE Asylum. In today’s Poirot on Channel 10 he had tired of fighting crime in the City and retired to tend his garden. I know how he feels. I discuss events in Ukraine, inflation and how it those who dismiss the damage it causes, Comrade Stacey, are wrong. Then I look at a BB portfolio of death, something for tomorrow’s bearcast. Two stocks which were both in it are Omega (ODX) and Tern (TERN). After last week’s collapse Omega may now be out – though I certainly would not buy. I discuss the common trait of how both mislead investors. I discuss how all folks should own some oil, a point I have made before, naming the 2 oil stocks I own.

Oh dear. Oh dear. Drive Software was, according to Julie “Lingerie on Expenses” Meyer MBE, going to be “Tesla meets Fitbit”. In a series of exposes on this website we have shown that it is closer to Enron meets a chap waiting in the soup line for the down and outs. But things have got worse.  Oh dear. Oh dear. The crash landing in tits up alley surely looms.

As I explained in the free to access podcast yesterday, shareholders in Omega Diagnostics (ODX) should be blaming the company and its advisers FinnCap and Paul “Queenie” McManus of Walbrook PR for their losses. I have written to the Oxymorons at AIM Regulation asking for an investigation into CEO Jag Grewal, CFO Chris Lea, Geoff Nash and Alice Lane at FinnCap and into Queenie himself.

How do you keep an AIM-listed Tern plc (TERN) shareholder in suspense? Why, of course, issue a Portfolio Update with no numbers attached! And that is what we had yesterday morning, from a company desperate to get a big bucket-shop funding round away as it faces a hefty bill to stand its corner at Wyld, which has a round of warrants due to expire at the start of April and not enough cash to pay for full conversion. But perhaps the biggest Red Flag of all was the excuses offered with regard to principal investee Device Authority.

Predator Oil and Gas (PRD) is a rather very questionable company I have not commented on for some time. Last time was in July last year. I commented on the exec director share dumping and a late reported related party asset deal. 5 days later Ron Pilbeam departed the board with the assistance of Tom Winnifrith and the FCA. Tom celebrated with Ouzo for breakfast and me with Chianti and fava beans for tea. Guess what – I see history about to repeat on one interesting aspect.

On Tuesday shares in sub-Standard-Listed Cloudbreak Discovery (CDL) were languishing at around 1.8p – a whopping 30% loss on the IPO price last June. But then they started to rise and rise…….and rise some more, closing yesterday at 3.85p in the middle. They had more than doubled in the spae of just four days. So what was the earth-shattering news? A massive gold discovery? A takeover? Er, no……

It’s been a while since I commented on PetroTal Corp (PTAL) – a Peruvian based oiler. My views on this investment case turned negative back in late 2019, and I came in for some slagging on social media for even suggesting it was not the best investment since sliced bread. My last substantive comment was in June 2020, after the company placed to manage the working capital position, as I suggested was required. A cornerstone Institutional Investor is now engaging with PI’s and other II’s to see the best outcome for shareholders. I find this very interesting on several levels.

Hello Share Treaters. All those doomsters who predict a crash in share prices need to consider this week’s big news. The UK economy grew by 7.5% in 2021. That’s the best performance of all the G7 nations. The Footsie fell on the announcement, but that’s just how illogical the stock market is. I expect it to bounce back next week. Covid is still with us and yet we beat growth records. When the pandemic has ceased to be a threat  I would expect GDP to surge even more. But not all shares will shine. 

Osirium Technologies (OSI), describing itself as “a leading vendor of cloud-based cybersecurity software, is pleased to announce that it has conditionally raised £1 million before expenses”… Sounds ok for it, especially as I previously concluded in November that, with forecast losses and the balance sheet position, avoid / sell. What’s the detail though?…

A year ago shares in Chill Brands (CHLL)  the fraud then known as Zoetic (ZOE) were 76p as I published a 60 red flags dossier. Here is how one moron responded – natch by abusing me. The shares are now 9p. I guess this tweet has not aged terribly well. Meet Stocks Gazer. He is a moron.

I mention briefly events at Omega Diagnostics (ODX) but that is covered largely in a seperate bearcast HERE. Then it is onto the new big covid test short Avacta (AVCT) and why our own esteemed PL is talking cock. I cover Anglesey Mining (AYM) and what its news today really means. Then a long look at Osirum (OSI). Obviously it is a worthless POS but what does its deeply discounted placing today mean for YOUR portfolio?