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Latest Views & News

OPTI
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BREAKING: Optibiotix, O’Hara resurfaces!

Well this is good news. More in hope that expectation I texted him asking when the launch in India of the Dr Morepen jv was due. This is the deal that is planned to deliver GP of £5-6 million a year to Optibiotix (OPTI) within five years.
SCE
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Surface Transforms – “Directorate Change”, why ANOTHER share price slump?…

There’s a “Directorate Change”-titled announcement today from automotive brake discs manufacturer Surface Transforms (SCE) and the shares are currently 28% lower at 0.18p. So what’s the news?
GEX
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Georgina Energy: Lyin’ Yet again

How do you know if someone from Georgina Energy (GEX) is lying yet again? By seeing if his lips are moving!
Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 1: GroupThink, Donald Trump and Kefi

What shakes the certainty of hard analysis? I discuss with reference to the US Election, the result of which was called brilliantly by yours truly, and Kefi Gold & Copper (KEFI) where I am also sure that the shares will fly as I discuss today's news from Tulu Kapi. 
AMRQ
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Amaroq Minerals – 2024 exploration update, this winning 73p offer price tip still a Buy

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ) has emphasised “Successful Completion of 2024 Exploration Field Season” having completed exploration across nine licences with 8,601 metres of core drilling and noting key advancements across its gold and strategic mineral projects and these also highlighting opportunities ahead from its substantial land package across Southern Greenland. What about this from our 73p offer price tip?
ITX
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Itaconix – “pleased to provide” trading update, but how ‘pleasing’ is it really?…

Describing itself as “a leading innovator in plant-based specialty polymers used to decarbonise everyday consumer products”, Itaconix (ITX) has issued a “trading update” emphasising that “revenues are tracking towards the upper end of its previous revenue guidance ($6.0 to $6.5 million) and gross profit margins for the full year are expected to be in line with previous guidance (at circa. 36%)” as well as that its major investments “are starting to pay off with the types of customers and revenues that we want to reach profitability and become a large, highly-attractive specialty ingredients company”. So what of a current share price response up to 145p?
Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Define imminent

I start with the election and what it means short and medium term for gold, shares and the dollar. I outline three scenarios for each. Then it is Probiotix (PBX), Amaroq (AMRQ), Predator (PRD) and wider corporate issues on veracity and finally Argo Blockchain (ARB)
AFRN
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Aferian – emphasises trading improvement and “well-positioned”, but how much so really?…

Albeit having slumped from as recently as earlier this year above 12p, shares in B2B video streaming technology company Aferian (AFRN) have currently approximately doubled to around 6.5p today on the back of a “trading statement” including that consumer demand for video streaming experience improvements has helped expected second half of its year revenue to approximately 20% higher than in the first half and, together with cost reduction actions taken, that second half adjusted EBITDA is expected to be “approximately $2 million”. How good is this news?
ENSI
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EnSilica – full-year results argue “from both a financial and operational perspective… remains well positioned”. Er, does it?!…

With its results scheduled for today, I recently suggested why EnSilica (ENSI) may be ‘pleased to announce’ a new debt facility. Describing itself as “a leading chip maker of mixed signal Application Specific Integrated Circuits”, the company today headlines the announcement of the results for its year ended 31st May 2024 with “Ongoing contract momentum underpins significant demand for EnSilica's services. New contracts signed with a lifetime expected value of $65m post year end”. So why currently an approaching 7% lower share price response to back below 50p?

VCP
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Victoria now just 93p, target remains 0p: a 20 red flag check list

Shares in Victoria (VCP) were almost £12 less than four years ago. They are now just 93p, a market cap of £106 million. As a perma bear I stand vindicated but I should say that my target price remains 0p, this is still a stonking short. The list of red flags is very long and worth remembering as a read across to other stocks
EPP
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Gary Newman warns placing ahoy at Energypathways

In an attempt to treat a severe case of #TrumpDerangementSyndrome Gary Newman has fled civilization and is now camped out by a lake in Hungary in search of fish. But he has managed to go online to warn me of what he thinks is a spooftastic share price action at energy transition company EnergyPathways (EPP).
Bearcast
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Tom Winnifrith bonus bearcast: serial deceit and lying at Predator as it places

I start with a short vignette about Dixville Notch in New Hampshire. It is just so nerdishly quirky. Then this podcast is about Predator Oil and Gas (PRD). Gotcha! As predicted, a placing yesterday afternoon but also a bucket full of more lying. In a properly regulated market Predator would not exist.
EMR
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Empresaria – states a disposal as part of “previously announced plan”, but how useful?

International staffing group Empresaria (EMR) has announced a disposal as part of its “announced plan to exit four of our smaller operations in markets or sub-sectors where we do not plan to invest”. What about this from a current 26.5p share price?
TST
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Touchstar – trading update, value realisation potential?...

Mobile data computing and managed services company Touchstar (TST) has issued a trading update including that it expects the second half of 2024 “to be strongly cash generative” but also that a significant order has now been delayed for rollout in 2025. What about this from a just below 100p share price, £8 million market capitalisation?
Gold

Video with Rick Rule: The Inevitability of the Gold Price Rise

Now semi retired, legendary investor Rick Rule believes the gold price rise is only just getting started.
PRD
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Predator; when is the discounted bailout placing? Target from 6.25p, 3p within months

Predator Oil & Gas (PRD) continues to serve up ramptastic news. Its boss, the low grade knucklehead penny share spiv Paul Griffiths continues to do paid for interviews insisting that the cash position is fine just as he claimed with interims on 25 September. But the late lamented Peanut the Squirrel, could do the maths….
ENSI
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EnSilica – “pleased to announce” a new debt facility now, I wonder why…

Describing itself as “a leading chip maker of mixed signal Application Specific Integrated Circuits”, EnSilica (ENSI) has issued a “New Debt Facility”-titled announcement commencing that it “is pleased to announce that it has secured a new debt facility to refinance its existing external loan facilities, providing total funding of up to £9 million and extending out to November 2029”. That sounds ‘pleasing’, but what about the details?
PBX
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ProBiotix Health – wins at requisitioned General Meeting, now time for reconciliation

ProBiotix Health (AQSE:PBX) announced on Friday, as was clear when OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) was restricted from voting, that requisitioned General Meeting resolutions to remove directors were voted against and that, whilst rights with respect to allegations made are reserved, it believes a line should now be drawn under this “regrettable incident” and efforts re-focused on the continued growth of ProBiotix under the leadership of Steen Andersen. We agree.
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That Was the Week that Was

 

HEMO

Hemogenyx is a short – target 0p

 

ECR

ECR, the timing is unfortunate

 

APH

Alliance Pharma – a recovery Buy?

 

PICH

Pitch Pit – this stinks

 

GEX

Georgina Energy: Lyin’ Yet again

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