UK 17:47 Monday, 26 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Tom Winnifrith has made no secret of his contempt for AIM (and TSX) listed POS Arian Silver (AGQ), having quite correctly called it a sell many times. But the latest RNS – a no-one-is-watching o’clock placing announcement really takes the biscuit. Yesterday the shares closed at 1.9p, having dropped 25% over the day and lo-and-behold we have an after-hours placing at just 1p.
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Comments
bob brush
Nigel
have you looked at the chart for this share over the last 4 days? I don’t think you have because you have got completely the wrong end of the stick. yes there was some very dodgy price movement but it wasn’t forward selling, it was a classic pre-placing pump. what you see as the 25% drop to 1.9p was the tail end of a pump from the previous day. the price of 1.9p was then totally stable for the entire day after about 9.30. if there had been leaked news or forward selling there is no way this price would have been stable, it would have been dropping all day but there was almost no selling at all. if a 1p placing was leaked, why was no one selling at 1.9p all day?
You have misinterpreted the headline figure here mate, let me outline what really happened.
On Monday and Tuesday morning the price was relatively stable at 1.5 on volumes of nearly 0. there was no trading.
On Tuesday at 12.45pm the pump started, an RNS went out confirming some relatively irellevant news and the rampers all got to work. the price went from 1.45 to 3.65 by 3.15pm. predictably it then started dropping as it was dumped. this drop carried on down to 1.9 in a smooth manner.
Now it just so happened that the tail end of this dump carried on into Wednesday, but that’s all it was. the tail end. this is not a case of forward selling Nigel. this is you garden variety AIM pump and dump. the company announced good news to spoof the market, then did a placing into it.
So, the FCA might need to be alerted but don’t complain about the wrong type of abuse! you wont keep a lot of credibility if you do that, and it hurts you credibility here to draw the wrong conclusions. I suggest a correction because the article is just wrong. I am not a troll I am a shareprophets ‘supporter’ so don’t take this as having an opportunistic poke at you, I am trying to help, no one gets it right every time and I assume you rushed this out in the morning. have another look at it. :)
Nigel Somerville
Bob Brush – thank you for your comments which are taken in a supportive spirit. Having read back through the piece I’m not sure it is quite as stark as you suggest, although having written it I can’t say with certainty how it reads to you.
I agree with your points about a pump and dump and did refer to this – including the peak at 3.75p. Whether there was forward-selling of placing shares is a second concern. A third concern is the magnitude to the discount. After that, there is the investment case (or otherwise!)
With regard to possible forward-selling, there is no doubt that there was selling after the RNS of Tues. Whether that was forward-selling of placing shares, profit-taking by a few lucky punters who reacted quickly to the RNS or just some taking the chance to get out is an open question. Maybe it was all three, or maybe it was just two of those possibilities.
The problem is that there are regular cases which look slam-dunk certainties for forward-selling of placings. They get reported to AIM Regulation and the FCA and nothing ever happens. Even if there really is nothing untoward, nothing happens – but in those cases surely the regulators could release a statement to say that they’ve been asked to look at it and found all to be in perfect order. At least that would lift the shroud of suspicion.
Of course, if something is untoward the regulators may get a complaint and still do nothing in public. This is not an acceptable situation.
The result is that I myself am always suspicious when I see share prices dropping ahead of a placing announcement. In the case of Arian the reaction to Tuesday’s RNS provided the perfect backdrop. If it was a pump-and-dump or some, shall we say, opportunistic trading it was unacceptable if not necessarily illegal. But if it were either I’d be worried.
Of course it cannot be proved whether there was forward-selling into the RNS of Tuesday but as things stand there is no way to get reassurance that there was not. As such it is, it seems to me, a fair question to pose. But I cannot allege that there was illegality and I’m sorry if that was the impression. It was really a rant at the regulators because whether or not there is untoward behaviour seems not to matter these days – it is just another day on the Casino.
But I still think this whole episode stinks and I feel for those who were buying at 3.75p and then saw (or perhaps due to the after-hours timing of the RNS, did not see) their shares being diluted to oblivion last night.
Was it a pump-and-dump? We don’t know but it sure doesn’t look good.
Was it forward-selling of the placing? We don’t know but it sure doesn’t look good.
Could it have been both? Again, we don’t know.
I really wish we had a system whereby a regulator could be asked to take a look and would then come back with a red or green light. That way abuses would be dealt with and be seen to be dealt with. But more to the point, if a particular transaction was clean we would also know about it. That would provide confidence for investors and just maybe AIM would see overall gains for investors as some level of trust is instilled.
Right now that trust is not there. Just look at the China Frauds – not a single public censure yet we all know there have been the most terrible things going on. Whether it is advisers deliberately looking the other way, not digging deep enough or whatever, these things have happened.
Again, I’m sorry if it reads as a straight allegation of insiders forward-selling. I think it a fair question to pose, as is the question of whether there was a pump-and-dump operation in play.
Whatever, I think the whole episode was very poor form and it is the cronies who will reap the rewards at the expense of the mug punters.
Personally, I’d be very upset if a company in which I was invested behaved in that way. It is why so much of the Casino is, for me, a total and utter bargepole.