I owe a lot of my success in investing to Steve Nicandros, CEO of Frontera Resources (FRR), having spoken to him in great detail about his company and investing a lot of money in it as a result.
The voting at yesterday's AGM from Afren (AFR) was interesting, to say the least. Whilst there was only a tiny proportion of shareholders who took part, there was a rather curious result. The majority of the resolutions got overwhelming support, not least the re-election of Alan Linn, who is the new head of the company.
It has been some time since I wrote about Afren (AFR) but, suffice to say, anyone who chose to ignore the warnings about what would happen in a restructuring will now be sitting on very severe losses. From memory, I first called Afren out as a short at 7p, and then added heavily to that position as retail buyers drove the price up to as much as 14p. On Friday, the firm announced that the predicted dilution was on its way as a vast amount of shares would be issued to bond holders in exchange for a very modest reduction in debt:
For someone who has been completely wrong about the possibility of a significant cash offer being made for Quindell (QPP), I should be thankful that I haven't lost more money on my last short trade, which I entered into at an average of about 115p. I have previously made a considerable amount shorting Quindell, but it would appear to be more down to luck than judgement, considering the levels at which I shorted successfully from.
Where do I start with Afren and its announcement of Friday? Let's leave the horrors of the operational update aside and just concentrate on the finances of the restructuring.
Those following me on Twitter (through @WShak1) will have noted that I closed all of my shorts on Quindell at around 71p a few weeks ago. The trade proved to be a very profitable but, given my negative view of Quindell, it may have seemed strange that I closed at all. I hope I was clear on my reasons why, which were based primarily on the notion that I expected another "rampathon" by promoters that would allow me to re-open my short from higher levels. Aside from any argument over its merits as an investment, Quindell has proven itself to be extremely volatile and there is money to be made if one is confident enough to trade around the huge swings.
I've previously said that Petropavlovsk (POG) is a good example of what is likely to happen at Afren (AFR) – see HERE but what does that mean for the share price?
Afren (AFR) has defaulted as expected, and huge dilution is on its way for shareholders. I'm sorry for all genuine, non-abusive shareholders who are going to lose money in the company . I've been there, and anyone who has been in the market for a long time and claims differently is a liar. The Board of Directors are now duty bound to seek maximum recovery values for its creditors. Bonds currently trade at about 45c.
I have bought another significant chunk of Afren debt this morning at 39.5c, flat (no accrued interest paid). It seems as though the bond market is not as delighted as the retail buyers of Afren shares over the upcoming restructuring of the Company and have dropped in price.
I wrote yesterday that I doubted that Seplat would offer a deal that would prove acceptable to Afren's board and so it has proven. They have been told to sling their hook and off they go, having proved themselves to be time wasters.
