Disclosure: The author has a short position in one or more of the shares mentioned. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Those following me on Twitter (through @WShak1) will have noted that I closed all of my shorts on Quindell at around 71p a few weeks ago. The trade proved to be a very profitable but, given my negative view of Quindell, it may have seemed strange that I closed at all. I hope I was clear on my reasons why, which were based primarily on the notion that I expected another "rampathon" by promoters that would allow me to re-open my short from higher levels. Aside from any argument over its merits as an investment, Quindell has proven itself to be extremely volatile and there is money to be made if one is confident enough to trade around the huge swings.
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Comments
alcira16247
Waseem
Many thanks for your analysis on Quindell. A very informative and interesting read.
I for one can find no valid argument to counter your conclusions.
All the best for a profitable trade.
wildrides
Blimey ………….. your balls must be so big that you have to walk sideways . I think its worth 0p as a business model , but the power of thousands of deluded morons to move the price somewhere else completely is a scary thing to behold …….. good luck .
Daniel Victor
Nice piece – thanks,Waseem !
DUCK AND DIVE
Waseem, thank you for another beautifully written, balanced and illuminating contribution.
I have never been, and will never be, either long or short Swindell, albeit I’m convinced it’s a POS, but your articles are nonetheless compulsory reading for me.
turbograndad
Waseem,
All that you say above I would concur with, I am not a seasoned shorter as yet, just watching from the sidelines, but you make well founded and thought through observations on how the game is played, particularly with QPP shenanigens.
Will watch with interest, good luck.
Diabel
…..you reassure yourself that since RT sold in the 40s your short is inevitably well founded. I suggest you reread your article about revenge being a dish best served cold. RT perhaps sold to encourage people like you exactly as you have speculated. So your reassurance is really built on quicksand and the bizarre thing is you can even see it. So how can we be expected to take you seriously?
Separately you don’t know whether RT repurchased – with other family members – at possibly 25p. And that strategy seems to be working. All your current shorts are losing money.
Please Tom this guy don’t know how to write. He would be prepared to lose money if he is wrong. Really! Is there a choice?
Filthy Lucre
Waseem I think that you have misjudged Quindell. This is a well written article (nice
to see that here) But I think you are wrong for all the positive points you make yourself.
You have weighed up the risks and benefits well, but have come down on the wrong side.
Have a look at the history of Redde?
You should have kept your short closed.
Sweet Karolina
Waseem,
I think the spike that you increased your short on may have been due to BBMs ramping an article on telematics in general and assuming the QPP telematics offering is bound to win a massive share of the market. From what I can see there are loads of telematics solutions already out there and there is nothing special about QPP’s. The failure of the RAC deal has marginalised them in UK and I am far from convinced that the Canadian market will have a particular soft spot for them either. What I am sure of is it ain’t going to be generating any cash for them in the near future.
I wish I had the nerve to short this dog which really needs to be put out of its misery, but there are just too many BBMs around, like Filthy Lucre, who will buy in on BS ramps regarding telematics / S & G and who knows what else – maybe a national newspaper will do an article on what a cash cow scaffolding is and they will all be ramping based on QPP’s scaffolding company – if it actually trades and is not just another fraudulent shelf company purchased of a mate for £Ms
AK47
Thanks for the analysis Waseem. Appreciate it and your informative tweets.
David Atherton
The BB people don’t affect the share price at all. In the main they are underwater and not buying or selling, or if they are their volume is too small to affect the price. I think the price is mainly being moved by 1-5 days swing trades.