Afren: Turkeys May Vote For Christmas, 0p On Cards‏

Comments

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   mrwhits

   26 June 2015, 04:47

   so what will happen if they are suspended and shareholders get nothing to any short positions as you will not be able to “buy” back the shares you sold short to close the position?

   Regards

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   drunken sailor

   26 June 2015, 06:10

   Was,

   Firstly congratulations on the superb way you have played this, hedging your Bonds which you bought much more cheaply than the current 45c with a short was a masterstroke – it does help if you have the money to add to it when the price doubles from where you opened.

   Secondly thank you for sharing your insights to those prepared to listen and braving the abuse from those too stupid to recognise someone who really knows what they are talking about. No doubt your article above will be seen by the turkeys as a sign of how nervous the evil bondholders are of a no vote and therefore why a no vote is required. I hope those turkeys who have lost a fortune do not default on their mortgages – their banks won’t offer to give them more money and still allow them to use the spare bedroom, and allow them to pay a tiny amount to upgrade to an en suite, the bank would repossess auction it off to cover what is owed plus fees and if that does not cover it claim on the insurance they forced the home owner to take out and pay for to cover any shortfall.

   Personally I would not call just under 88% as overwhelming support for a new man brought in to save the company, though it was the most strongly supported resolution.

   None of the AGM resolution really make all that much difference. The directors who rapidly withdrew rather than have public announcement of the strength of shareholder disgust with them would have been replaced in a more orderly manner post recap anyway and the resolutions that were roundly defeated were irrelevant anyway as there is no opportunity to issue new shares prior to recap.

   It is very easy to register a protest vote when the that protest will have no real consequences. All those opinion polls prior to the general election prove that when it comes to the crunch common sense will prevail in enough voters for a sensible outcome to be achieved.

   The fact that shareholders can’t block the sale of assets has now dawned on most:

   “If Shareholders fail to approve the sale of such assets (by way of a simple majority of Shareholders attending and voting in general meeting), holders of the Alternative New Senior Notes will be able to accelerate repayment of such notes upon such event of default and enforce their security under the Alternative New Senior Notes (as noted above) without further recourse to shareholder approval. Additionally, there would be cross-defaults to the Group’s other facilities which would allow the relevant holders and/or lenders to accelerate the repayment of such facilities at such time. Accordingly, any failure by Shareholders to approve the terms of the disposal of all or substantially all of the Group’s assets would allow holders of the Alternative New Senior Notes, as well as the Group’s other secured lenders, to enforce their security and Shareholders would be unlikely to receive any return of income or capital by the Company following such enforcement.”

   If this is not enough of a gun to the turkeys’ heads then I am sure a definitive statement regarding the need to suspend trading upon a no vote would wise up enough of the remaining turkeys, though no doubt cause others to squawk even more vociferously.

   Any sensible shareholder (a bit of an oxymoron as if you were sensible you would not still be a shareholder) should vote with their feet and sell now – the pump and only partial dump of the last few days gives them the best opportunity they have had for a while.

   The best chance for shareholders and former shareholders is to stop whining about evil bondholders and daft conspiracies and focus on suing the corrupt and incompetent directors who shafted the company in the first place – start with the former CEO and COO move onto the FD, who misrepresented the dire financial situation at the end of Q3, and also round up the NEDs who where asleep at the wheel whilst taking handsome fees for doing very little.

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   Terrys Chocolate Starfish

   26 June 2015, 06:45

   When in doubt always assume bondholders are the smart money.

   MrWhits, there will likely be a grey market if the shares get suspended.

   (More quality like Was and less dregs like Chrisoil and BMD please Tom!)

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   Tom Winnifrith

   26 June 2015, 07:01

   TCS

   You can safely assume that the market abuser Chris Oil, fired by this website, will not appear here again and that neither will has manservant Levi

   T

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   Gary Newman

   26 June 2015, 07:12

   Waseem,
   It will also be interesting to see how this all plays out with the Nigerian government – not sure how true it is but there seems to be a suggestion that the general will vote no. It complicates things that change of ownership approval will be needed, I would imagine.
   Also, in terms of the Ebok facility I believe the company has been in breach of the production covenants, so would be interesting to see whether the banks behind that facility make a move for the asset based on that.
   I think there are a few more twists to come along the way still – not in a good way though! You only have to look at the timing of the Seplat bid which conveniently meant that Afren was able to cover up the extent of its problems because it was in a bid situation at the time, and Nigerian companies are notorious anyway for making approaches that never come to anything (would be interested if anyone ‘suggested’ to them that they should make an approach).

   I’m still very suspicious of the whole thing and the way that it came at a time when Afren had pretty much just finished developing the Ebok and Okwok assets and paying for all that!

   I don’t have any position and don’t intend to have either.

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   mhin2

   26 June 2015, 14:53

   lets be turkeys and take the bond holders with us

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   Phil

   5 July 2015, 15:53

   MHIN2

   They will have covered hedge shorts. TCS is right, the bond markets are the smart money. When bonds start discounting to coupon, particularity in a long market, it’s a sell note