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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


AMI

African Minerals – Why Evil Knievil is correct to be short

I have been goaded into looking into African Minerals (AMI) by Bulletin Board Morons laughing at Evil for being short given that the stock shot up by 47% yesterday. Evil went short at 20.5p the stock is now 25p (valuing African at c£85 million) and falling and I agree with him that the target is near as matters c0p. Here’s why.

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Comments

  1. Disgracefully poor piece of ‘research’, designed to get his friend out of jail free. No mention of the mine’s 60 year life, the 2nd largest mine in Africa; already a low cost producer and technical improvements being implemented to reduce costs by $10 a ton; the high quality iron ore that will be produced next year; the main cash requirement not until Feb next year; the positive proforma profit figures on the website. No, just assertions about the founder’s old drug conviction.

  2. Foreskin

    So are you saying mine is generating cash at this iron price? If so why did it need $284m earmarked for phase 2 brought forward to subsidise phase 1?

    Are you saying PLC has cash? Why did company admit otherwise in last RNS?

    Get your facts right pal

    Tom

  3. SHORT sale today: made GBX 45,000 in 2 hours.
    Thanks Tom !

  4. tom

    although much of what you say may have some fact, arguing that fat boy made the right call is clearly wrong. his timing was clearly out. most people have been shorting this stock and have ended their position around 18/20p. evil opens his position when everybody else is looking for the exit. opening a short when the market moves 47% north is not a great move, and i’m surprised you attempt to defend your buddy!

    in respect to the share price, yes this company is a pile of shite, but a value of 0p is insane. the mine value alone gives a market value of at least 35/40p.

    this is clearly a volatile share, and i think the longs a shorts while battle for a while yet. but, if the price does make 0p in the next 6months, i will give you 10pounds to a charity of your choice. how about if the share makes 40p, you offer the same in return? good luck!

  5. Whole company stinks. FT alphaville has a good section on it including £25m of fuel which went ‘missing’ and significant undisclosed related party transactions. Like GKP big convertible outstanding which only the Chinese might refinance but what are the chances of them cutting shareholders a piece of the action?

  6. Nice to derogate contributors. Do you always try to win your arguments by insult? I didn’t mention cash generation but since you raised it, yes the project companies are generating cash based on annual sales of 18Mt with cash costs of $34-36/t. De-sliming facilities to reduce moisture content and thereby increase product value will shortly to come on stream increasing margins by up to $10 /t This has cost money where margins are tight at current ore prices. However, profit has been made in first half as per proforma a/cs on website, shortly to be released as first half accounts. Get your facts right; mine are as published.

  7. Foreskin

    The rules here are simple. You insulted me. And thus I reserve the right to insult you back.

    Talking of simple…derogate means to deviate from. As in “Foreskin derogated from the correct use of the English languaage when posting on ShareProphets”

    Lets see what the PLC balance sheet is when next published. The company admitted in a recent RNS ( 15 Aug) that the PLC had a short term funding need & also that the op unit had a working capital operating shortfall. So I am merely repeating what AMI has said, I suggest to you as such that my facts are correct but that you have derogated from the truth in your assertions

    Best wishes

    Tom

  8. Hey Twat, seeing as we’re descending to your level.

    Your command of the language is about as good as your analysis. Derogate, verb (used with object),
    3. to disparage or belittle. (ref http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/derogate).

    Thing is you don’t know why AMI said it wanted cash whereas I do because I talked to IR. It’s also saying that they can break even if prices go to $70 by end of 2014. They’re confident of raising the cash to meet bond payments, but want a cash cushion and capital of c $300 million to put in place the Hematite Concentrator.

    But if prices recover, as several commentators think they will, every $10 over that will generate them $200m. $100/t is a reasonable target and $600m would be quite handsome. This is before they start mining the higher grade ore in 2015.

    We can trade insults ‘til the cows come home but let’s leave it to the results and updates. BTW on the other AMI thread you had another go at my credentials, inferring that EK earns money to speak. I retired early but used to sell my services as a psychologist and MBA for £1200 a day to help govt and companies do stuff and achieve things. And your credentials are – let’s see, how about indifferent writer and mediocre tipster?

  9. Foreskin

    You keep talking to the IR. I will read the RNS’s. cary on with the abuse andcarry on buying. Ask Moni shareholders how that worked out for them?

    So you used to be in therapy and had delusions that you were the shrink? I gather that is a common occurence. Better go back to the shrink.

    Me a failure. Sure. We all perceive ourselves in different ways and I accept that I have failed in ,many things & succeeded in others. You no doubt tell your shrink that you succeed in everything, another delusion.

    Maybe medication next time?

    T

  10. Lol – ok you get some respect for posting that. But no, I am not in therapy. I used to counsel married couples and agoraphobics but that was a long time before I was a Big 6 consultant. And yes I’ve had my share of failure too. I’d advise EK to close his short.

  11. AMI – 10p and suspended……..to me that’s 0p

  12. Wolf

    Yup we are chalking that up as a clean kill already

    t

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