UK 00:43 Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
On the surface it seems like good news once again - as has been the case since September 2015 - the KRG has agreed to hand over $15 million ( $12 million net) to Gulf Keystone (GKP) in fact today's RNS is a disaster.
Already a member? Sign in
• All premium articles
• Tom Winnifrith’s Bearcast
• Access to all the entire nearly 13 year archive
• ShareProphets Daily Newsletter
Cancel any time
This area of the ShareProphets.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ShareProphets.com. ShareProphets.com does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ShareProphets.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ShareProphets.com and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.
Comments
Drunken Sailor
Couple of typos:
$275 million repayable on 18 October 2014
Paul might start dreaming that oil proces go up
Paul Curtis
Tom
Once again you misquote me. Please try to be fair.
GKP burning about $7m per month. $12m covers bond interest. Last update re cash balances stated $58m.
The previous payments included a significant contribution from KRG to back costs. This is why I have repeatedly told you KRG looking after GKP.
Today’s RNS is patently net good news. It indicates that KRG still looking after GKP. There is no point making a one off special payment. Logic dictates that KRG are prepared to see GKP safely thro the critical April interest hurdle. This buys GKP until October to avoid a hard default.
You keep misrepresenting me as a bull of the equity. The equity is very high risk and a hard default this April could have triggered a restructuring which would have be fairly disasterous for equity. Remember that no one can risk administration so any deal should be consensual. Hence equity won’t go to zero.
The $5.8m gross was disappointing and the discount for heavy oil more painful than I was expecting. However this was based on $31 oil and margins improve as oil rises. OPEX is under $5 per barrel. There is a pipeline spur under construction which will eliminate expensive trucking costs, improving margins/netbacks.
GKP very much on the critical list. They need oil price to bounce and M&A market to improve in time to resolve bond redemptions next year. I wouldn’t touch equity. However Shaikan is a great asset and probably has more potential than any rival asset in Kurdistan, for all types of oil. What value can GKP achieve in a rising market? Phase 2, raising production to 100K bopd, is mapped out. Just needs the funding ie M&A partner. Shaikan could be over 1bn barrels.
So it’s possible equity has significant value in the future but high risk.
Tom Winnifrith
Paul
You really are on the methadone. GKP itself says op costs just over 8m pcm. So 12m gives you less than 24m every half year which is NOT ENOUGH to cover $26.5m of interest.
The number i stated was cash after last interest payment explicitly. Your $58m is last cash – cash always builds up between interest payments.
When you are off the drugs come back and get your facts right
T
Paul Curtis
Tom
I know that GKP are comfortable at $12m per month. You know why I know.
Hence costs must be sub $8m
Remember costs are still coming down under Ferrier.
I was chatting to someone yesterday who has done very detailed analysis and he reckoned currently nearer $6m.
We shall see….
Tom Winnifrith
Paul
Arguing with you is pointless as you are just in 100% denial. Ferrier told Upstream costs were >$8m pcm. But you know someone who knows better than the CEO. Whatever…
You are just making things up or you are on drugs, there can be no other explanation
t