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Disclosure: Financial Investigative Media Limited, which is not owned by Tom Winnifrith but by a trust for his dependants, owns shares in companies mentioned in this article. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Premaitha Health (NIPT) has announced further international expansion of its customer base and updated on UK litigation timing
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Comments
Captain Mainwaring
I believe a re-rating is long overdue here, 16p is way too low IMV – still winning contracts here and lots more to come.
Has been over-sold on the litigation “risk”.. a case that Premaitha have every chance of winning.
shares321
This type of litigation is a big uncertainty for Premaitha and requires a large discount to its NAV. Illumina is a $23B dollar company who have a small army of lawyers who can use all sorts of legal technicalities with there ambiguously worded and far reaching patents to drag this out for years. If Premaitha lose the case, they will have a embargo on all sales in Europe. That will destroy the company. Despite the positive comments from Reynolds and Premaitha about the case it is very hard to predict how this case will be settled.
Tom Winnifrith
Shares 321
What do you mean by NAV? If its balance sheet NAV so do nearly all trading cos – look at MKS or GSK or BP. Or indeed almost every listed trading co.
This is not an investment company
If it is the NPV – its not at a discount on my sums or broker forecasts
t
wildrides
Sell and buy back cheap near the court case . Latest news is just another paltry attempt too stop the SP declining . Just a service contract with no values given ……….. can they even service it at a profit with all their growing overheads ? Whinny Froth has formed an emotional attachment to this share which brings increasing risk to the party.
Simple Moving Avarice
They will have to come to a deal with Illumina, otherwise Illumina can find another patent infringement around March 2016, and then another in October 2016, and so on, keeping it going indefinitely.
Illumina have hundreds of patents in their portfolio to choose from. So there will always be the spectre of litigation hanging over them with no end in sight unless they can negotiate a deal.
shares321
Hi Tom,
I meant the level of discount to balance sheet NAV. This company is not profitable and is not expected to be in 2016 or 2017 according to broker forecasts in morningstar. To fairly value this company and its potential you have to make a prediction about future profits and the level of protection afforded by their patents. If investors wait till after the court case it will be more easy to work out the value of Premaitha. They may even be profitable by that point.
Alquemie
The Illumina issue aside, I do wonder about the medium term prospects for NIPT. I know Dr Nicolaides and respect his opinion and commitment to maternal-foetal medicine but it’s a highly conservative area of medicine and there remain broad ethical barriers to the widespread acceptance of non-invasive prenatal testing along with questions over test performance. Advances in sequencing technology may render NIPT’s (and Illumina’s) proprietary techniques obsolete.
Commercial pathology labs survive largely through being able to offer a breadth of services, not being good at just one and NIPT should be looking to offer additional services around and outside of prenatal testing.