UK 06:41 Sunday, 25 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Evil Knievil sent me a snotty email on Watchstone (WTG) of which he is long. I think he is a bit in denial. And so to are some of our readers as they respond to perfectly good articles appearing here today by our new author Cynical Bear, notably on Xtract Resources (XTR) and Challenger Acquisitions (CHAL). All this is discussed in today's podcast.
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Comments
RTN
Obviously I muddled up this line: “The reason people are giving him not giving him credit is:”
and should have read:
“The reason people are not giving him credit is:”
Drunken Sailor
What I quite liked about CB was that he was clear about the scope of his article, what he was going to look at and what he was not looking at and why and then stuck to that to cover the scope he had set. He did 3 different sorts of analysis on 3 different companies. Everyone should do their own research and that means doing the hard yards across all the forms of analysis.
Generally I have a quick look at the chart with 50 and 200 day SMAs – none of the incomprehensible guff Zak comes out with. That is enough to see the main trends and get a picture of whether I am looking at a potential recovery play or I am looking to buy into an ongoing success story. Then it is executive directors CVs. Then the hard slog through the last 2 year’s full annual reports – the RNS does not always give you everything. I always look at related party transactions, which are either the last or second to last note. Then it is the last 12 months RNSs. Then onto the company website to see how much they are spending on PR and what sort of PR – loads of Proactive Investor articles and the like are a definite turn off. Then it is a look at the BBs to get a flavour for what sort of lunacy is going on there and occasionally picking up on some useful things for the next stage, which is a lot of googling to see how much independent verification I can find for what has been said – the local newspapers often print what the local employees are saying or what real customers are saying and are untainted by PR. To write all that up would take a 40 page dossier and anyone who expects that is going to be mightily disappointed.
Of course it is far easier to pile in on some tip or other and then just denounce anybody negative as a shorter or deramper who is just trying to get in at a better price, but where is the fun in that?
Gary Newman
Drunken Sailor,
Often people will criticise an author here for leaving something out – but like you say it just isn’t possible to cover everything in one article of 500-600 words! With some companies there might be one single aspect that i could probably bang on about for that sort of word count!
I found the CB pieces interesting and varied even if i didn’t agree with everything he said – it would be very boring if we all agreed all of the time anyway!
phil
Before anyone can influence me to believe Watchstone has a future, It is on the understanding that to have a future it needs to do something, has anyone got a clue what that might be ?
turbograndad
Prefer informed cynicism, as opposed deluded ramp fraud any day. Do things in haste or not researched, repent at leisure, particularly is this game.
Cynical Bear
@TomW – Thanks for posting my articles today, even if I may not have been prepared for the response!
@Drunken Sailor – Exactly. Research is complex and takes time and, as a couple of people have pointed out to me already, it was tough to make the limited points I wanted to make in a short and snappy piece as it was
@Gary – Totally agree .The market is all about opposing opinions which is why I was drawn to Shareprophets in the first place as it is possible to get a variety of different opinions from the various writers – me and you on CHAL for example
wildrides
Forgot to say “happy 15th Birthday Oakley” A fine achievement by any standard . Especially considering each leg has to do the work of 1.3 legs . The joints must be good Oakley old chap . Its all in the genes . Go and have a celebratory shite on the carpet just by the front door fella …….you deserve it .
wildrides
Drunks me ole fruit bat ,
Impressive research fella ….. no really . I find the trouble with going that deep is that I just find reasons not to buy ANYTHING ! because every company has some shite in the midden .
Take Whining Froth for example ……….. all those finely honed fraud detecting skills and books written on Red Flags and he still goes and recommends a piece of shite like Teathers (TEA) which is so bad it gets suspended and locks in loads of unsuspecting punters . Clearly he just ignores his own advice or gets bored carrying out the 49 flag checks . Bit of a red flag those Drummond brothers hey what . At least my Titanic is still afloat . We all have it in us to be a genius or a numb skull on the same day at the same time ……… scary aint it .
filthy lucre
There are a lot of ‘I just don’t knows’ in this piece Tom.
TW Note. EK knows sweet FA about this and could not explain what even 1 of the WTG businesses do. You are talking cock again. And also misquoting me you dumb motherfuckerSimon knows this industry, Helphire, Accident Exchange etc.
If you had any sense you would listen to him.
In any case, your analysis is very different from you position fairly recently, when you said that
WTG would be wiped out by fines from FCA, and claims from Your Legal Friend and Slater and Gordon. I wonder what your position will be next week.
phil
I hate cats.
Came home from work one day to my worst nightmare, a kitten. my daughter’s kitten,and daughter’s play guilt trip.
Please Daddy, can we keep her. No, no chance. Pleeese, You feed it, you water it, if you don’t it starves. If it craps on the carpet it’s out and if it craps upstairs it’s dead. So started a war with a cat called Pippa.
In that time she killed the pet rabbit Buggle, the Budqie sweetpea, the no name Hamster ( Hamster called no name), the Bantam Betty Wiggles, ripped Akela Bull Terrier to sheds, dumped n number of small birds on the mat. and other birds including Philomena’s white fantail pigeons, Bill’s racing Pigeons, a Magpie, A carrion Crow, Jackdaw, a Kestrel, a Juvenile Sparrow Hawk and a Jay. Rats, mice, grey squirrels, rabbits, Goldfish, Koi carp, Toads, Frogs. 2 lawyers letters for killing the neighbors fish, and 5 kittens.
One day she limped in, she had been run over, and she was in a bad way. Fractured skull, broken jaw, ear ripped clean off, multiple fractured front leg, broken pelvis, broken ribs, punctured left lung. She also lost some toes of her 27 toes. She was in agony, she was in no state to be driven 20 miles to the Vet, so I though I had best shoot her. So I took her into the garage to shoot her, looked at her, she looked at me, and I thought no, best I call the Vet.
11 months later, and £9,400 poorer, we got her back. No teeth, one eye, one ear, totally deaf, dribbled everywhere, a really crooked walk, no thyroid function, slow heart beat, poor kidney function and a lifetime drug dependent.
When the time finally came, I quietly took her to the Vet, and quietly we let her go. I buried her way down, here in the Grim North, in the back of beyond, next to the dogs, and I was heartbroken as I said goodbye to a strange kind of friend, one I never thought I would have and one that lasted 22 years and 2 months.
I still hate cats, just not that one.
Drunken Sailor
Wildes,
I have a portfolio of 10 shares. 4 are boring Blue Chip dividend payers, 3 are fully listed mid caps (one on ASX) and 3 are on AIM, one a dividend payer (a bit disappointing) one a recovery stock (recovered as expected but recovery seems to have stalled so may well sell soon) and one a micro cap resource play (doing abysmally for macro reasons, but I trust management who have a 28% stake and put more of their money in each time and are owed the last 2 years salary). I focus my research effort on AIM, which is where I largely put what I get in dividends. I have a few stashed away, so I am considering whether I top up an existing holding, into which I have already done the hard yards and therefore know what signs to look for, or get a new one. Thus if I don’t buy anything it is not a problem, I could top up one of my mid caps, my ASX play is actually doing ok now thanks to the weakness of the Aussie Dollar and is cheap because of that too, though also underwater still following a bad patch and me buying when Aussie Dollar was at its strongest. The only Oil I own is BP and I will not even look at an oiler to buy until there are very clear signs that the oil price has turned. I might be tempted by a decent Gold play, I just don’t know, What I do know is that there is no rush to make a decision. In the meantime I am experimenting with a fantasy short portfolio as I am considering getting back on that particular horse having fallen off painfully about 5 years ago. I am trying to work out if I can do some short term shorting without doing all the hard yard research. Tom calls the dogs and frauds very well and he certainly identifies lots of good targets, but the opening and closing of leveraged short positions is all about right timing and that does not come from fundamental analysis and Zac’s charting is pretty hopeless in this regard too, so still experimenting with fantasy money.
I have learned all this through many years of getting sucked into dogs instead of shorting the life out of them as, with the benefit of hindsight, I should have, rather than getting vocal on BBs and with regulators trying to get them run properly or the directors booted out. I absolutely will not ever buy another shitty little AIM investing company, which is what TEA is, thus I have never even bothered to research it. However AIM do seem to be taking the investing policy rule much more seriously now and a fair few have fallen foul, including Jim Mellon’s 3 Legs Resources (should he rename it Oakley?) Some will sort themselves out in the 6 months allowed, some won’t. I would not bet against Mellon or Drummond being amongst those that do sort it out and come back, but they are still likely to be not much more than shitty little AIM investment companies when they do come back.
Nicotine Nelly
Tom, Is it in order to tamper with RNSs months after they have been released? I refer to Xtract’s RNS of 15-10-15 which stated
“Xtract Resources Plc (AIM: XTR), the gold and copper mining and development Company with projects in South America and South Africa, announces that, further to the notification by the Company on 10th September 2015, Auroch Minerals NL (‘Auroch’) today held a general meeting at which Auroch’s shareholders approved the disposal of 100% of the Manica gold project (“Manica”) to Xtract (the “Transaction”).Completion of the Transaction remains subject to the Company obtaining the necessary approvals under the Mozambique Mining Act and other applicable laws relating to the change of control of Auroch Minerals subsidiary and communicating such change of control to the Mozambican mining authorities (“Completion”). If the completion conditions are not fulfilled on or before 31 December 2015, the Acquisition agreement automatically terminates.”The final sentence relating to the deadline of 31-12-15 has now disappeared given that the necessary approvals under the MMA have yet to be granted.
PS Belated birthday greetings to the morbidly obese Oakley (get him onto a diet of Optibiotix yogurt and the weight will fall off) and advanced b greetings to you. Keep up the good work.
alcira16247
Tom
Happy Birthday!
Thoroughly agree with your analysis of Watchstone Group……. its a train wreck waiting to happen, given the present lamentable record of the “new” CEO and management decisions that hardly inspires confidence for the future.
Seems these boys Indro Mukerjee (CEO), Mark Williams (FID) , are following in the footprints of the esteemed Founder…… buying further crap lossmaking companies to add to the Terry stable of loss making crap companies, thus making a whole Group of crap loss making companies!
I wouldn’t give much credence to its launching of Hubio……….“Himex, QETS and QSI companies will be brought together to form Hubio, a new brand combining our B2B, insurance focused, technology businesses.” ……. “ This technology portfolio ranges from consumer apps, through to OBD and box based telematics to award winning claims software”……..able to turn the tide, either, if given that the AA’s choice to enter into partnership with an Australian company, is followed by other ‘targeted’ customers.
However, one thing appears certain, the Group is on course to make another horrendous loss!
Drunken Sailor
Nicotine,
Can you prove the original wording was published as you say it was. AIM regulation should be very interested if you can. This sort of thing is a slam dunk reason to bargepole the company.
Cynical Bear
@NicotineNelly – that date is still stated in the original 29 June announcement and it hasn’t been stated anywhere that it has changed so assume Jan will update the market soon on that point
Drunken Sailor
I have found a posted version of that RNS on the LSE asylum and the extra sentence is NOT there. Nicotine you have either made a mistake in your post or you are being a very very naughty boy – nobody has tampered with that RNS and suggesting that they have would constitute market abuse and if it were to do damage defamation.
I suggest it would be a good idea to remove the post.
An update is however overdue from the company, as CB says – not a good sign! AIM rule 11 refers I believe.
Nicotine Nelly
I copied the original RNS into my XTR file when it was issued – hardly proof I know, but it’s not the sort of thing I’d make up.
Nicotine Nelly
Thank you for that CB. At least it proves I was not dreaming although the wording of the relevant part of the 29 June announcement is not exactly the same as the sentence which I believe has mysteriously disappeared from the 15 October RNS vis…
“If the completion conditions are not fulfilled on or before 31 December 2015, the Acquisition agreement automatically terminates with no further obligations on either party other than the repayment of the unsecured loan.”
Drunken Sailor
Nicotine, the post I found on LSE was a cut and paste with Jan’s comments below so it is not that the poster cut off too soon. There is no way anyone could have doctored the post. It was a bitch to find as they crap on so much on the asylum but see for yourself:
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=XTR&thread=3C372189-A6D1-4E95-939E-216E174763D7
Nicotine Nelly
Drunken, the LSE website was where I copied the original RNS from on the day it came out. Isn’t it possible to edit a RNS weeks/months afterwards? I know it seems improbable, but that’s all I’m asking.
PS The 15 Oct RNS as it now stands is also on Xtract’s own website and everywhere else one looks. Anyway, enough is enough.
Duck and Dive
@Oakley – many happy returns from Pixie:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7aqwo6yxz59jkou/Cat-chinshin.jpg?dl=0
@Phil – thanks for that wonderful story. I cried.
Drunken Sailor
Nicotine, No it is not possible to edit them, they are a formal record, a separate correction RNS would have to be issued. I do know of a case where the company changed an RNS after the Nomad had approved it, but before publication – it is the PR company that actually publishes them. The fact that this particular company had changed the RNS without the knowledge of the Nomad came to light when it had to be reissued as a correction and the Nomad used the version he had approved to add the extra info needed (cashflow statement in the interims published a few months before which an eagle eyed person (not me that time) spotted was missing and reported to AIM Reg) unaware that there were other differences. Rather than report this scandalous state of affairs and resigning on the spot, the Nomad reissued another correction using the as published original version as the baseline to add the missing info to. The company that did that has since been booted off of AIM because that Nomad did eventually resign, but only after a whole series of other company induced gaffes, which I believe earned the Nomad a £90k fine, but there is no confirmation of that because AIM regulation did not name the firm fined.
Have a chat with the PR people and see if they can explain it. Tampering with an official record would be very serious and I am not sure how it would be possible, so there must be a logical explanation. I am sure you are not lying but equally there is no way they could have tampered with what was published and cut and pasted by a poster to the BB later that day, weeks afterwards.
I note from AOU’s announcement on 24 Nov that that is when they applied to Mozambique for the transfer of the rights. Nothing happens very fast in Bongo Bongo land, so a condition of 31 Dec would be a nightmare to achieve and outside either company’s control. Maybe as part of the sale agreement they waived that clause, it got included in an early RNS by mistake and as the market had not opened maybe they were allowed to swap it for a corrected version without issuing a complete correction and you picked it up first thing.
Nicotine Nelly
Belated thanks for that very lucid explanation Drunken, your final sentence has got to be the answer. Glad you believe I’m not lying. Looking forward to Tom’s interview with Mr Nelson.
Aw t’best for 2016 & beyond. – Nicotine