UK 23:37 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am sitting here with my father in Shipston. We have just had a long argument about the deaths of Cranmer, Latimer & Ridley. Naturally we both insisted we had the facts right. I am now 1p better off as I was right. My father has gone to the White Bear early in protest. Back to the podcast, I start with US base rates and why the UK will follow and what that means (house price crash, bad for certain equities). Then it is the AIM disgrace of the day Concha (CHA), onto Afriag (AFRI), Inspirit (INSP), Ultimate Sports (USG), Fastjet (FJET), and the shocker of a July IPO Adgorithms (ADGO). It is another day of shame for AIM.
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Comments
Woody44
Tom, a few weeks ago you were saying that “death spiral” agreements were as good, if not better, than some discounted placings. Considering the discount and the types of investors Inspirit Energy would have to go to, don’t you think this is one of those occasions? After all, if Insipirit can get its act together, the shares might(!) go up and the conversions won’t be as dilutive as a forward-sold bucket-shop placing and heavy com to the broker. Continued forward-sold bucket-shop placing after forward-sold bucket-shop placing seems to me a far worse “death spiral” than a floating convertible.
wildrides
Morning Whining Froth …….. interesting cast . I am some what surprised at your reaction to the Inspirit RNS . It read to me like the most positive RNS from them in many a while . Blue sky tech is never easy to develop and all the delays dont surprise me at all . Obviously they have had some testing failures in early prototypes that requires new engineering solutions to be developed and retested ( ie gearbox ) Now they have a final prototype that has withstood lengthy in house durability testing they are at the end of the engineering development process . I looked at the SP after reading this news and was dumb struck at the market reaction ie zero reaction . I expected to be confronted with a big spike and no chance of taking a position for a while until the news had “worn off” Now the appliance goes of for regulatory gas equipment testing at an independent testing lab for certification next month and should be complete end of FEB 16 . That is amazing progress for such complex piece of blue sky kit . If only Lemongas had not raised market expectation with such unachievable times scale targets so early . I think I will snaffle an opening position and wait to see what transpires .
DUCK AND DIVE
Fastjet do have issues but they are in expansion mode and to do that, they have to invest in order to accumulate. Having just launched a new airline in Zimbabwe and with Fastjet Zambia and Fastjet Kenya now licensed and due to launch in the new year, the outlook is rosier – especially as each new airline helps to defray central costs.
The load factor is down on their Tanzanian airline, largely due to turbulence from the Tanzanian elections which are now over – but also due to the addition of an extra Airbus 319 in that fleet which will take time to optimise.
The African currencies have fallen against the dollar – but that’s A Good Thing while Fastjet continues to be a net investor of dollars in their hubs. And meanwhile, the price of their biggest overhead – fuel – continues to fall. Crude is now 40% cheaper than it was a year ago when Fastjet recorded its maiden (possibly only) monthly operating profit. And the West African scourge – Ebola – is virtually eradicated, no new cases having been reported for a month.
The company had around $70m cash in June and that will have been supplemented by approx 400,000 fare-paying passengers since then. They have no debt and they can, should they need to, borrow against a recently purchased Airbus 319, so I wouldn’t be concerned about them running out of cash for a long time.
As forewarned, they will certainly report a hefty loss for 2015 but they continue to forecast profitability in 2016 and the pieces are slowly coming together.
I rate it a stonking buy at today’s price – but I would since I did the same when the SP was double; and I have been adding at this level.
As for Lenigas, Fastjet has long ago formally severed ties with him and his ‘empire’ – and I would assume that he is no longer even a shareholder, given that Lonrho divested years ago.
wildrides
Good comment Duck me ole fruit bat ( Ok ……….. duck then ) . I have taken a right beating in Fast Jet so I hope you are right . In fact its my worst loss since LLoyds Bank way back. Thats the trouble with Whining Froth ………….. he bares these personal grudges and attaches them to the shares they were managing at the time . When they leave and move on and the years pass by he still cant see past his old views on that share . I was expecting the oil price to have helped them by now and so I hope for better things soon . No doubt Whining will be kicking shit out of it daily now its their Global Shorting Conspiracy short of the year . I note they had a new born bear covering it, with after birth and half the placenta still attached, who seemed like he was under researched and a bit wishy washy to be honest . It would be great for Africa if they could pull it off …………. which is why I invested ………… now its losing me loot I call it my charity share instead ! If in doubt go into denial mode ……….. there is always a bag of crisps at the end of the journey if it goes badly . Mines barby beef flavour please . If it gets back to profit for me , I will keep my stake and give the profit to some worthy charity cause . Hopefully that should tempt Karma back to the share !
Stuart Kaplan
“…confetti blizzard death spiral…” CLASSIC Bearcast! Keep it up Tom!
Nigel Martin
Tom, congratulations on the Oxford Martyrs.
Have you read page 9 of today’s FT? You might enjoy it. Online, it is at https://next.ft.com/content/cf7f48b4-9f41-11e5-8613-08e211ea5317.
Happy Christmas.
DUCK AND DIVE
@WR – good luck to us then! The FJET SP is down primarily because a couple of large IIs bailed out. Albeit 6 of the other 7 IIs took advantage to increase their holding (at 60-65p), there is still an overhang looking for a good home by my reckoning.
Notwithstanding the alleged shorting conspiracy, only 0.65% of the equity is declared as a net short and that figure has been unchanged since the spring fundraising. I assume it to be a hedge by one of the investors. Market cap is now probably below NAV with lots of potential upside coming soon – and the new interline agreement with Emirates having only just kicked in.
I would obviously prefer to be in profit but I can wait.
Phil
I see that Tsipras is sitting on the European top table, what a pity Greece isn’t in the room with him.
The sands of time are once again shifting, and the clock is ticking for Britain. There are now n-1 days before OKI, the day that Britain finally loses it’s voice.
The European Union have Britain between a rock and a hard place, you can’t cope in and you can’t cope out. I would kick that referendum into the long grass if I were you, the gift that gets you out is always the gift that keeps you in.
Don’t vote your out, trade your way out, there will be no need for OKI, and Britain will keep her voice. But you will never trade all the time you invest in shite companies like these. Be rid of them once and for all, but you will never be rid of them all the time feckless stupid shareholders buy them and keep them in play by trading them.They offer so much yet deliver so little, just like the stupid shyster Lenigas and the European Union.