UK 18:32 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
In today's podcast I look at the Portugal Coup and what it means for the EU and the Euro. Then onto profits warnings and where I see equities going and finally a note on Mark Carney, UK base rates and UK house prices.
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Comments
Richard Battley
Tom I totally agree with your comments on property having worked in the industry in one form or another for the last twenty seven years and as you say we haven’t seen any distressed selling since the supposed great recession.
I was selling houses in Guildford during the real housing crash of 89/92 when prices dropped 35%
without allowing for inflation..!!!! We would receive 1/2 repossession a week being one of twenty agents in the town you can imagine the numbers. The whole market has been artifialy held up by Zerp
Help to sell, and the buy to let ponzi scheme distorting the market for owner occupiers. Property should be bought as a home not an Equity and as an equity people should except corrections
when the fundamental’s do not stack up..!!!! The government have interfered in the housing market and protected people from there speculating.
Free markets clear maul investments they do not pump bubbles straight back up without the fundamentals having been corrected. Mark Carny and George Osborne have created the most dysfunctional , distorted housing market in history..!!!! I agree with your view on an interest rise to two percent would cause distress which is ridiculous. In the early nineties we went from 8% to 15% then
back to 8% imagine what would’ve happened if interest rates had doubled in 2008 and then came back down to 5%.??!!. Instead we are still at emergency base rate seven years on having reinflating housing stocks bond art classic cars it all remines me of 1987 I feel they might be able to carry this on for another year but surely one day the free market has to rule again.
You cannot solve a debt crisis by throwing more debt at it, at the expense of the savers to bail out borrows
that is not capitalism..!! If we had allowed people and businesses too fail we would have a proper recovery, now at the end of the business cycle we are out of animation for the next crisis/recession all being part of a depression that we had been in since 08. All QE and zerp have done is enlarge the previous
bubbles and destroy the fundamentals, you have to wonder what a mad Financial system we have when bad news is good news for stock markets to go up because the low interest rates and possible further stimulus will carry on. Like a drug addict eventually you have to come off your drug of choice get cleaned up and enter the real world..!! But until the pushers (central banks/ politicians ) Realise the damage they have caused a by kicking the can even further down the road they will not be able to paper over the cracks next time.
Daniel Victor
Okay,good luck Tom – but admit it…..you badly underestimated Slaven Bilic.
Tom Winnifrith
DV
Re Bilic – yes I certainly did and am very happy to be proved wrong – COYI!
t
andrew
Agree with the analysis, not so sure about the timescale.
If int rates rise, mortgages rise (or housing costs rise), disposable income falls,
The first thing people will start to do is rack up unsecured debt
The second thing is stop spending money (my observation of younger people puts it this way round)
The last thing is to get rid of the house.
If rates rise early 2016, I think early ’18 before houses start to fall in price not least as many mortgages are 1-5y fixed rate deals.
The other thing is, what does happen in the markets when lots of people effectively have a pay cut of 10% or so?