Disclosure: I own shares in one or more of the stocks mentioned. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I’ve had an interesting discussion with our stalwart reader Wildrides on my recent 88 Energy piece (88E). Cut a long story short Wildrides has made a number of comments on pieces I’ve written pointing out the obvious flaws in the businesses I’ve covered. Wildrides and I swap the odd email, so I do know his real name. He is an experienced investor and someone whose opinion I respect, but our recent exchange has left me wondering; does AIM make thieves of us all?
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Comments
JASPERTHERDOG
Nice try to make me feel guilty!
Of course I like a profit but to suggest that the profit is made by selling to ‘other mug punters’ is a bit strong.
I try to buy those companies on AIM that 1.) have revenue; 2.) have cash in the bank, and not from the constant issue of paper; 3.) have positive cash-flow and, 3.) are not punts on holes in the ground or blue-sky twattery.
I don’t always succeed, of course, as ‘sentiment’ and hope get in the way. The sentiment and hope are not, contrary to your opinion, solely based on my greed and other peoples’ credulity.
My sentiment and hope go to the company and the fervent hope that they are right and their world-changing idea is as good as it is puffed to be; that they will be wildly successful, make a shed load and not only reward me financially but give me a glow of satisfaction that I had faith in the human race’s ability to improve itself.
Buying shares in companies blown-up on BB’s and something called ‘Twitter’ (of which I have only the vaguest idea) does not seem to me to be sound investment strategy. I could be wrong, of course, and snake-oil salesmen and their acolytes could be right.
LE
Interesting piece, Ben. While you and I may have exchanged some differences on a particular stock, I wholeheartedly agree with the notion here.
Linked to this point, something I find amusing is to read some of the more notiorious Twitter ramping community talking of late about the dire volumes on AIM. These are the same individuals who have gained notoriety with PIs, further enhanced through the recent interviews with Justin the clown (as Tom calls him- won’t mention a rival site here!) talking of their story on AIM of turning a few meagre thousand into many hundreds of thousands, or even close to a million in some cases. Where has all that money come from? At a wild guess, I’d say the same mug punters that to this day still pile into anything these “characters” talk about. There is a very evident correlation between their tweets and surges in volume, and they all tend to like the same stocks at the same time too. This is no coincidence, and is a monumental transfer of wealth from the many to the few. How their followers don’t realise that the persistent seller who always seems to be there is the same person they are listening to blindly, I’ll never know. These people are also frankly open about having zero financial market qualifications or even experience, and yet they still have the blind following of a herd. It baffles me beyond words, and this is a dirty side to aim that I think is massively overlooked.
Tweeting buy while actually selling is not just the forte of the likes of chiris oil, and I think sooner or later many will wise up to what is going on and how these few have got so wealthy off the back of the many PIs that heed their “research”. They then have the nerve to wonder where all the speculative cash has gone..and why volumes have tailed off so much..
wildrides
My reply would be that some of us think that the sentiment a particular stock has garnered is because something fundamental has changed . Lets take Toms stocks and knock a few chunks out of them :-
NIPT ……. clearly Tom thinks it will win its court case and so do some others (but not many)
OPTI ……… clearly Tom thinks that a large food group will pay substantial money to use its patents on certain food products to produce , lets say , a cholesterol lowering yogurt ….. apparently Tom is not alone , many share this view and there are substantial facts that contribute to that theory possibly coming true .
On the other hand Sefton ( not one of Toms stocks) has had plently of sentiment behind its movements over the years . You , me , Oakley , the neighbors dog all know that there was never more than fantasy behind that sentiment ……… no proof , just pure hope , rumor , suspicion , nothing tangible .
Yep I went into 88E on the premise that they might hit a conventional pool on the way down to the oily shale level . This was mentioned as a possibility in the prior RNS . When nothing was hit and sentiment was not lifting the price I got out on a good day ( price wise ) However there were factual reasons for this strategy . My point is that investing in sentiment is fine in my book providing there is a factual possibility of a real favorable out come for the company. Thus you are not trying to defraud your fellow investor in those instances ……..merely to anticipate a favorable outcome for the share earlier than the rest of the herd and thus reap the early gains . Exiting early when it becomes obvious that success is becoming unlikely is just “every man for himself” self preservation in action.
Gary Newman
Ben,
Interesting piece and i agree with a lot of what you are saying.
I do think there is a big difference though when it comes to AIM stocks between having trade based on your expectations of sentiment, as opposed to actually trying to create that sentiment, which you do see a lot with groups all pushing certain shares at the same time to try and lure people in by promising all sorts and ignoring the negatives!
The latter I find very distasteful and dishonest, as basically you’re trying to con people – you could argue that many PIs are their own worst enemy by not reading and understanding RNSs, instead relying on other PIs that they don’t know from Adam to tell them that it is fantastic and the company is worth a fortune (when normally that is far from true and the negative are being ignored).
I’m possibly my own worst enemy on some of these sentiment plays as i will discuss/point out the negatives on both Twitter and LSE when i would probably make more money if i just kept my mouth shut and let them get on with pumping it sky high!
There is definitely money to be made though if you get in at the right price on a lot of this junk – I’ve taken a position in MSMN at 3.2p this week because i expect a decent bounce, not because i even like the company, but due to two II sellers clearing (or very close to being) at a level that coincided with support.
Generally though I’d much rather stick my cash in a larger company where the market mechanics are often easier to read, certainly for a trade, and all these 5-10% trades soon add up!
Sue
WHAT SHITE
You like all the other scammers who gamble on AIM get fucked up the shitter because you trawl around in the gutter of AIM picking up lumps of dogshit on your way.
Thus you end up smelling of dogshit.
And lose all your own money and that of the mug punters who read your utter crap and stupidity and follow you into these dogshit companies.
The rest of us who have a certain amount of “intelligence” invest in the MANY stocks on AIM that are not gutter trash and not penny gutter trash.
I can name 50 to 60 if I could be bothered but simpler if you go and look at what Miton are investing in and Slater and Kestrel and Spark/Gresham and this list goes on.
Companies that are all flying high and are real genuine success stories unlike the gutter trash you trawl for.
You encourage readers and followers of your shite and lead them into the crap and should be ashamed of yourself.
AIM has many companies that are well worth investing in and none of them are penny crap which is why mugs like you ignore them.
You are the type who lives in the BB world of dreams and fantasy thinking 5 million shares in a vat of dogshit is worth more than 10 thousand shares of pure gold.
Simply because you think a micro sub penny share can multibag and make you rich overnight.
YOU LEAD PEOPLE INTO THIS FAILED DREAM.
Oh yes it can happen once in a blue moon but most will lose trying to follow this type of bullshit.
AIM has made me a fortune and will continue to help me grow that fortune.
Mark Slater , Max Royde , Gervais Williams even Nigel Wray will tell you.
And before you start with more of your crap, the likes of Wray may well invest in a penny punt now and then but he will tell you it IS A PENNY PUNT and whatsmore he unlike the mugs you encourage he has very deep pockets and can well afford to be wrong for many many years until he is proved right.Your mug punter followers do not have such resources nor patience.
You ask why do “WE” invest in frauds etc , breaking news buster “WE” dont!!
only the handful of BB morons that follow fools like you.
I ask TW now to make this comment from you above his BB TWAT OF THE CENTURY” award winner
“Apart from the odd exception there is no such thing as “investing” on AIM”
UTTER CRAP.
A cursory glance at the AIM 100 list shows what an absolute pile of utter shite that comment is.
Simple Moving Avarice
“In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine.”
I think it was Chris Oil who said that – or was it Warren Buffett? I always get those two mixed up.
Here’s the thing. You are deriding AIM as a whole but nearly all your examples come from oil exploration and mining, and very low market cap companies at that. That sector is currently struggling (even GLEN (mcap £13B) is down -70% in a year). But even in its heyday the small AIM oil/mining companies were often huge binary gambles. Other sectors (travel & leisure or pharma for example) are doing better, and if you stick with AIM100 companies you can smooth out the ride even more.
But of course ‘smoothing out the ride’ is like saying ‘taking out the excitement’. A gambler in a casino does not place a chip on each number on the roulette wheel even though mathematically this is the optimum bet (because it will maintain the mean return of -2.7% but with zero variance). The gambler creates betting systems which actually increase the variance (such as the suicidal martingale) and some who trade on AIM seem to do the same thing, choosing companies which clearly have a seriously negative mean return, but trying to get on the right side of massive swings in price (high variance). But over the long run you can’t predict random events consistently, so trying to profit from swings tends to be zero-sum and you wind up with the underlying mean return (unless you have an edge such as inside information.)
My view is that these ultra-high-risk AIM companies are not making thieves of people – they are bringing out the gambler’s faulty instincts. In a casino the house always wins. So by all means get some excitement from playing the swings, but do it with companies with a positive slope to the price action over the last year to two years (and/or good fundamentals – it will amount to the same thing.)
VINES
there we were thinking you tip crapshoots cos u believe in them. turns out you were just trying to con us into thinking you believed in them
todays confession wont save you from damnation less you change your ways but we all know you’ll be pumping stocks again next week!
catempire
Fundamentals mean diddly feck all on 90% of aim… they all go up they all go down, all you gotta do is get in before it goes up and get out before it goes down… simples really… if someone isn’t capable of doing that and buys your stock off you at 5 times the price then thats knowones fault but their own, they either learn to play it or they get played.
It’s not trading… Its investing where companies out do their potential in only a few days ;-) … even warren buffet would be impressed lol
I do however think there is a considerable difference in buying a stock because you know its aa ponzi peice of shite, knowing it’ll get pumped … and … Getting on the pump waggon along with the company and selling it to others via blogs and twatter… It is certainly what a few too many do, the amount of bullshit sales and rocket ramps you read on twatter of companies that they know full well are crap is almost cringeworthy.
catempire
Sue – Calm down love you’ll give yourself a hernia.
Its true, there are good stocks on Aim… but I think a very valid point you are missing is that generally the mug punters who come into the market don’t have a large enough capital base to invest in mid cap growth companies… they are drawn to the over night millionaire success story, is there anything wrong with that? Of course not, there life, there choice.
95% of people, punters, twatters & general BB loons wouldn’t know how to understand a balance sheet if they tried, nor are a great dea of them smart enough to sit down and learn.
Todays mass investing seems to be a case of following each others shitter on twatter and hope eventually someone is rite… It is surprising how so many of the twatter favourites with their 2000 fake friends havn’t got the slightest clue about business and probably are not clever enough to ever have.
I agree with what you are saying, but i disagree that there is any problem with it… if they are to stupid to learn and require being steered by bs bloggers well, best of luck to them.
For the record I do believe the market is changing once again and those who have used this as their strategy are going to begin to struggle and maybe a revise of strategy is needed… the beauty of the market is it never stays the same for more then a second, ever evolving and changing…
when people take part in a placing on LGC just because they “Think” it’ll get a ramp, or they hold £400,000 worth of a share because “CEO has succeeded before” with £1m cash in the bank @ a £7m mcap…
Anyone putting £400,000 in a penny punt when they are not a multimillionaire should be kicked of the market for being so fucking stupid, never mind being able to steer a hurd quite possibly even more stupid then them.. if nothing else it is very comical.
Stick to what you do and don’t worry about anyone else, if their stupid and think cheap handouts last forever that is their fault…. afterall, the market is 100% completely sane, supply and demand, it is the players that are off their rockers!
JASPERTHERDOG
WOW!
Thank-you, SUE, for putting me right on this
SUE is somebody who clearly visits this site very often and when she does she obviously understands far better than I what is being promulgated. I was of the impression that ‘ShareProphets’ message was to warn people against buying the real dogs on show on AIM and trying to clean up the whole AIM market.
For the entire year I’ve been visiting here I have completely misunderstood that the object was to persuade investors to buy the shares mentioned. I must go back and re-read all the warnings on GLOBO and the China norfolks again, maybe I’ll be able to make as much money as SUE has done, as I have missed the subliminal messages that Tom and the crew have been sending out.
I think that we should, at the very least, be given a clue by, say, renaming ‘BEARCAST’, ‘BULLCAST’. Then when TW mentions such as Daniel Stewart and the like we will take the tip for what it is and load our portfolios accordingly.
turbograndad
The markets, and perhaps in particular AIM are continually spoofed by the MM’s up and down, depending on their order books, inside knowledge, first mover advantage eg RNS’s, they hold all the card tricks and formulate along with the rampers and PR bullshitters the general investing/gambling background. They are the professionals in a rigged game, and have been doing it for a long time. They are the primary market, with the primary advantage, they set the share prices, so they will set them accordingly to shift stock and maximize their profits at your expense. This can make value, momentum, and quality not as relevant as we would like, making it a spoofed market, for more prosaic reasons.
Phil
Clueless Sue
You will have bought a crap share in your time.
Want to go accuse Warren Buffet of being a scammer and a gambler because he did buy a piece of dogshit when he bought Tesco and walked himself into a fraud. Want to blame Ben Turney for Warren Buffets actions, go ahead.
So what do you make of Sam Jon Wei Sue, think maybe its a good investment. Ever heard of Sam Jon Wei, no. Jesus where the fuck have you been you never heard of Sam Job Wei. You mean you don’t trade China, fuck me I thought every successful Uber shareholder traded China .
Why don’t you go send a withering email to Slater et al and moan at them for being so lazy as to not trade China. Tell them get off their lazy perfumed arse and go and trade China because their perfumed arse is causing you to miss out. There is a private shareholder who trades China and knows all about Sam Jon Wei, so go to China and come back and tell me all about Sam Job Wei, so I can buy them when you tell me to.
I don’t offer tips, but I’ll make an exception, but it will be your decision. Go and check whether there is an investment case to go long in Juniper. You ever traded the commodity market, no you haven’t. Just as you haven’t traded China, you going to add that to your moaning to Slater et al
When you start making your own decisions instead of relying on anyone else, and stop believing that everyone else does it the same way that you do, then go and trade China, (forget Juniper, the commodity market is already ahead of you, you missed it) then come back here and tell me your a successful shareholder, till then fuck off and go back to the BB board, where you came from
J P Spaghetti
Surely there’s scope for assuaging any crises of conscience in this context by invoking the old chestnut that is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and simply agreeing to disagree about the extent to which it is indeed efficient in this respect at a particular time considering a given stock!
runway
hehe nice
gla
BIGXBETSXNEVADA
Phil
There is nothing wrong or dirty playing market demand, no matter how you play or what you you use. Considering all other human beings and life forms on this planet have been doing for thousands if not billions of years, there is no reason Britain wouldn’t be like the rest.
Britain has been good at market demand and where you found none, you send in a gunboat and created some. It made Britain great. OK the gunboat doesn’t work anymore but using market demand you are still one of the richest countries in the world. Just because you don’t seem to want to give yourselves credit for that, is no reason to think others feel the same way.
You can come to this country with nothing and become successful, you try doing that anywhere else. If you tried to do that in America you wouldn’t even get out of the airport. You have to watch your step, but whoever told you life was fair has it wrong. Africa have Leopard, we also have Bambi, our Leopard capture, kill and eat Bambi every chance they get. Fair enough for the Leopard, but it it really fair for Bambi
Ben Turney
Very glad to see this article has provoked such an interesting debate here and on Twitter. Thank you all for participating.
@Sue and @ Vines – let’s deal with you pair of idiots first. Like it or not this website’s success is largely based on the traffic it generates. The fact is people like to read about stocks such as RRR, ADSS or NEW (3 I’ve been positive about recently that I can think of). You accuse me of ramping these stocks. That is absurd. If I write the odd article on these companies that is hardly ramping them or making people buy them.
@Jasper – unfortunately there are far too few of those companies you describe on AIM.
@Le – It’s amazing how many people fall for that so obediently. I’ve obviously got a few issues with the bank robber and his acolytes, but what amuses me the most about them is that he has lost them a small fortune because he is so bloody incompetent. Yet still they believe he is a source of inside information and is going to make them rich. At what point will they learn?
@Wildrides – On 88E do you mean facts or “facts”? :-)
@SMA – I agree my bias is towards O&G, but if you think about this year’s major frauds (QPP, GBO & the China frauds) they have nothing to do with O&G. Tom, Nigel and the other writers on this site cover those brilliantly.
@Catempire – I agree, there is a great difference between spotting a liquidity pump rather than trying to create one
Ben Turney
@Phil – you’ve touched on something there that makes me feel as uneasy as I do about AIM. Our country has a fantastic tradition of entrepreneurialism. Today there remains a willingness to back tomorrow’s winners. One of the major problems with AIM is that it corrupts this desire and diverts precious working capital away from businesses that might succeed to fee paying schemes, designed solely to enrich the City and company directors
wildrides
Ben ………. by “facts” I simply meant 88E had a licence to drill , was actually drilling an exploration well and had actually stated in an RNS that it had intermediate targets on the way down to shale depth that it considered were conventional plays rather than shale plays ……….. thats all I meant by “Facts” As opposed to , for example :- Sefton , that was not drilling wells , Lied about having some oil output , Lied about the office dog eating the output calculations , Lied about the dog being at the location , Lied about the dog being in charge of office filing , lied about Dr Ali , lied about MK1 through to MK 246 steam flood reports etc etc .( unfortunately the dog died before it could prove a miss carriage of justice , presumably of constipation )
MrMoto
There was a brilliant article on here many years ago showing the metrics and numbers of AIM investing over the last 5-10 years. They were awful figures, 70% all big losers from memory.
Time to dig that out and let the figures speak for themselves, with AIM the battle is lost before it is even fought.
warun boofit
I reckon sue, that you is a man and a Johnny Cash fan ? Sue if you is right then how come the AIM market is 20% down since inception ? In my tiny mind this means on the AIM weighing scales the bucket of dogshit is heavier than the bucket of ‘intelligent’ non gutter trash shares and not by a little bit either so in conclusion I believe the AIM market to be generally a pile of dog shit with a sprinking of Cadburys Roses on top which are difficult to recognise amongst all the poop. I live in hope that one day my pile of shit will break even and I can exit the dung heap. Having said that I think my problem is getting the timing right as even with my worst dogs I had a number of opportunities to get out with a good profit, hindsight is wonderful. With respect to this website it does help avoid standing in poop, had it come along two years earlier than it did I think I would probably be better off today.
Drunken Sailor
The lure od AIM is the 10 bagger – only really happens on AIM. If you lose everything on 8 shares but catch a 10 bagger then you have still doubled your money and you only need to tell everyone about the 10 bagger and not the other 8.
No truly decent company 10 bags in a few weeks. It is only the POS ramp stocks that can do it. NEW 10 bagged and some lucky / devious people got the benefit. Shareprophets, by doing its best to alert the authorities and investors to what was going on, actually assisted in creating the situation in which a few gained and many lost very badly. That is not the fault of Shareprophets but of the regulators who should have acted, but as usual failed. The regulatory failure is what allows most 10 baggers to happen as they are generally the result of carefully orchestrated market abuse around a POS. If a stock has lost 90% of its value then it is a potential 10 bagger as it gets back to where it once was. If it has lost 99% then even better it only needs to get back to 10% of where it was to be a 10 bagger.
That is the problem AIM regulation is grappling with. Does it apply the rules it has and kill the 10 baggers and with it the lure of AIM or does it wait until there are no mug punters and therefore no liquidity left so that the few decent companies go and get a proper listing whist the rest just dies of starvation. There are some honest companies with genuine potential that will die of starvation as they won’t be able to get a proper listing. They never get a proper look in on AIM at the moment, because all the silly money goes to the Ramp POSs and they just have to pick over the bones of what is left. That is what is truly wrong, these honest companies that have potential, but need the support of the market to realise that potential just can’t get the support they need because so much gets wasted on Ramp POSs.
Gary Newman
Catempire,
Very much agree with you about the amounts that some risk on AIM junk – or worse! I can never quite take them seriously when these bulletin board posters say that they’re risking their life savings/kids school fees/holiday or wedding money etc on some piece of junk that has little chance of ever succeeding, and the beast they’ll do is get lucky that their buy in coincides with a bit of a spike and they escape with a big profit thinking that they’re the next Warren Buffet (or even Buffett himself!). Chances are they then lose all their profit and a big chunk of capital if they take the same risk again elsewhere.
The complete lack of awareness about capital protection amazes me these days, and many small PIs seem totally focussed on the profit they might make, with zero consideration to likely size of the loss should they have got it wrong!
Personally I enjoy the odd smaller punt on AIM shares for a bit of excitement in-between trading bigger companies, and over the years have got very lucky on a few – more so back in 2009/10 when it was easy to make money from them and we saw crazy rises (banked 1150% on RKH in a few months for example). But I’d never risk an amount that I couldn’t afford to just write off if it all went wrong, as without any capital you can’t make any money.
It is unfortunate though that many PIs do have an interest in gambling on AIM, and i certainly notice from my writing on here (plus posts on Twitter etc) that if i cover a big company that could generate a reasonable return and at the same time provides income via dividends, it rarely gets a comment or retweet. Yet if i write about some piece of rubbish on AIM that is a high risk punt, then that tends to generate far more comment/interest. Probably a sad indictment of the state of the AIM market at the moment that people want to gamble on doubling their money overnight on some gravy train for the BOD, than they do investing it into a company that is actually growing its asset value but likely requires a bit of patience to generate a good return, all being well.
The way things are going it would appear to be easier for these junk cos to raise money via the bucket shops to keep the lights on, than it is for the companies with a chance of success and real assets and growth (unless they can find II investors), which isn’t really what AIM is supposed to be about. Few on AIM would survive if they had to operate within the private sector that is for sure!
Phil
Ben
I’m not surprised my views make you uneasy, they do the same to me.
The Planet plays Darwin, and a key consequence is that all life forms on this Planet have to tell lies, and as just another life form we have to tell them to and there is nothing we can do about it, no matter how hard we try. So I have always been realistic and have accepted that there is this little piece of dysfunctional corruption called lying sitting inside of me, as it sits inside everyone else.
Shareholders usually use rules to cope with these markets and different shareholders use different rules. I have one rule on these markets, the rest I play as it comes. My one rule is “a lie is a sell note, there are no exceptions”
When I bought Rob Terry’s fraud of Quindell, I didn’t know is was a fraud, but the moment I saw there was something wrong with it, I didn’t hesitate I sold it. So you may think that rule is in place to protect me and my share values from the consequence of Rob Terry but you would be wrong. I am perfectly capable of protecting my share values from Rob Terry so that is my job.
I am subjected to the same temptations as everyone else so I created that rule not to protect me from the markets but to protect the markets and other shareholders from the temptations that play upon me. By having that rule with no exceptions, it is impossible for me to be tempted to use that piece of dysfunction within me to knowingly buy, hold or create a corrupt company, I only wish all shareholders did the same.
catempire
@ Ben – Most certainly mate… take the New short squeeze, I have seen various people get blamed for that fiasco, from you to Doc to MTR and yet the people who created it were the incompitent people at the helm.. was there anything wrong with catching them out and cashing the fuck in on it? absolutely not!
The market is very similar to playing poker… everyone who sits round the table is trying to win the other persons stack, people will bluff, psyc out, etc .. basically do what they can to win the oppositions money, this rule isn’t just for the investors but also the advisors, the CEO’s and any other greedy prick who may want a slice… if you sit down at a poker table with your life savings surrounded by a bunch of sharks and believe you will win, well, quite frankly you havn’t thought enough about the situation & if you walk away with nothing will anyone feel sorry for you? Of course thy wont.
If you walk on to a rugby field against the all blacks, break your bones and put your hand up and say “hey that wasn’t fair” becuase you didn’t understand the rues of the game, that is knowone’s fault but your own… and the same conduct can be applied to the market.
We can all get on our high horse and think its out of order, but it is what it is and if you wanna sit down and play think that shit through before hand… there are absolutely no problems taking someone all in on their first hand becuase they go all in on a pair of 2’s and the same can be said for the market.. if someone sticks their life savings on a whim well as far as im concerned thats the same as all in on a high card. We all learn the hard way… it doesn’t make us theives, it makes us clever enough to work how the fuck it works.
Selling a bullshit story – thats a different matter and one for each persons concience to work out for itself!
As far as im concerned, honesty is and will always be the best policy and there is a considerable difference between a trade and an investment, something i think many players seem to forget!
On a side note – ADSS ? Did you not see them riding the back of AFPO’s success ? its a p o n z i :-) and this particular pon zi burnt too many pi’s in April / may that it wont get the liquidity needed to make it do its thing… aimo etc.
@ Gary – To be fair, i actually don’t think there is anything wrong with going all in on the market, i know it goes against every rule in said historic rule book but if it ticks every box there is to tick then……. would you go all in on 4 aces knowing you could still be beaten ?! well i would hope you would.
The difference I feel is the lack of thought that goes into the amount of captial put at risk… take a junior oil company for example, there are so many bloody things that can go wrong with that it is untrue, oil price, country, cash flow, management, greed, trust, sector, politics etc… thats the difference.
Early days CTP for those who had the foresight, was a cracking buy, the research needed to see it, the boxes ticked etc… if i knew someone who had found CTP before it made its move and went all in i would shake their hand and say you bloody legend, well done, you deserve it… if i know someone going all in on a junior resource company (even if they succeed) … hmm, i don’t think you’ve thought this one through.
I’ve been all in twice, a gamble, of course, but a gamble with odds by far stacked in the favour of success and a risk i was prepaird to take and if I stumbled across a similar circumstance again i would equally go all in again… but for fuck sake, think it through, think it through again, and then give it to a clever person to think through just incase you’ve missed something.