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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am drawn to a certain Bulletin Board thread for AIM listed Totally (TLY) where after one recent announcement one poster published 52 separate negative pieces. What sort of moron spends his days like that? A Bulletin Board Moron of course. Now there is a comment on Shareprophets after our most recent piece HERE. Let me address it.
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Comments
wildrides
Ive been under water and above water ….. underwater and above water , just like a bobbing cork , on this one since buying . Patience is required here I feel and I believe it will be repaid .
Reassuring update Tom . I shall stick .
Steve
Tom,
One of the initial articles on shareprophets made me have a look at Totally and I took a holding as I think there is some interesting potential. The contract wins have been very promising as it shows there is demand for the services.
However I also think that at this stage you may be over-egging the pudding. Revenue in 2013 was £0.88million, however £0.74million of that was in the first half of 2013 and virtually all came from the 12month project that delivered SDM programme to NHS England (which is now being supported under the contract announced this week I believe).
So coming into this year run rate revenue is less than £300k per year. The additional new contracts seem to be somewhere around the £400k per year mark, although not all are for 12 months and they started only towards the end of this current reporting period.
I don’t expect first half results to be spectacular – I doubt revenue will much exceed £300k. What we don’t know are underlying costs. Full year 2013 admin expenses were £0.9million and we know these have been cut, however in recent weeks Totally have recruited health coaches and more recently a new (seemingly high profile) medical director. Cost of sales was £0.7million but I think most of this was related to the H1 product delivery.
I think Riverway also had a point about the size of the contracts – the newsflow has been promising but they are relatively small in size and I believe they mostly remain pilot contracts.
At £2.2million market cap this offers significant upside if it can keep winning and retaining contracts – particularly if it can get some better sized ones. However I’m not sure its quite as fair along the line in financials terms as you believe.
riverway
Tom,
Everyone respects well -argued opinion and I suppose you get laughs by hurling insults. Am I a moron – of course I don’t think so.
The Bids Director- does it matter if he was headhunted or not? Not really. The real issue is that he has not been replaced. Why? Are we not bothering with bid submission? How are we going to get the larger contracts? Long-term relationships with the NHS are just one part of winning major contracts; an excellent bid forms most of the rest.
The high-renewal rate. Of the contracts and pilots, only one has been renewed this year. That was High Weald, and according to the RNS, the revenue for that contract was ‘not expected to be significant’.
South Derbyshire was ‘extended for evaluation’. It has not yet been renewed for services.
We are still to hear about Leicester and we will see how the expansion affects the price. Last year’s expansion showed a price reduction in price per patient from approximately £1000 per patient to around £350per patient.
Let’s hope you are right about the upside. To get to a share price of 1.5p, the market cap needs to increase by more than £2m. That suggests a contract value of around £500k.