Tom Winnifrith bonus Bearcast: David Lenigas your soul will burn in hell (mental health smears) & LGO RNS unspun

Comments

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   Duck and Dive

   24 February 2016, 07:26

   Passionate stuff. But have you noticed how often the LGO share price rises on your doom and gloom LGO bearcasts? It’s uncanny. As I write, it’s up 46.5% at 0.315p. Shirley, the reverse should be true? Anyway, helpful as your analysis usually is, it seems to sail right over the head of the average LGO BBM.

   That said, I think you may have (inadvertently) incorporated a bit of double accounting into your financial prognosis. I believe that the trade payables have increased by around $4m because they are no longer being paid out of cash which had previously been drawn down from the BNPP loan for this purpose. BNPP is now keeping this cash – so the debt to them reduces by $4m.

   Even so, the outlook for LGO is bleak, even if they can somehow raise $20m in new money.

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   Tom Winnifrith

   24 February 2016, 07:37

   D&D

   Was .295 when recording .3 now. Maybe folks like Wildes instinctively buy when Im recording :) As I noted in podcast shares have collapsed while on my bear watch. There are ramp up days along the way but even wildes accepts what the LT trend has been ( and will continue to be)

   t

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   VINES

   24 February 2016, 07:47

   by the reaction david hit the sweet spot with that comment

   this round goes to dave

   TW Note: Vines, i shall also be praying for you as your soul will also be burning in hell. Lenigas is fully aware that I have no mental health issues but he is fully aware of my mother;s problems and like Yusuf Kajee, his buddy, throws mud in that vein. It does not alter what i write but it should make folk - clearly not you - question the ethical void which Lenigas operates in.

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   phil

   24 February 2016, 07:55

   Is the AIM market really so starved of success that they see value in this RNS..
   A company that has never made any money, raises more finance and you end up with a company that still doesn’t make money

   Unless any shareholder traded Oil prior to circa 1974, they have never traded Oil outside of the petrodollar, but the petrodollar is finally dying, and Oil prices will not be go back anytime soon.

   For Oil producers the petrodollar rig as been a true gift, for the rest of us, it has been toxic. God save my mate Vladimir

   Lenigas, he is a nasty fucker

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   wildrides

   24 February 2016, 07:58

   More heavy bias from Thomas in Whining Froth mode today :-
   I note you are no longer crowing that the share is going to zero but instead it will go to 0.18p – 0.20 p . A place already visited once I remind you . Most Aim IPO collapse in SP after listing . Sensible people will have waited for this , bought in at circa 0.5p and ridden it up to 6p making an awful lot of money . That comrade is shares , they go up and down and 2007 is a long time ago . As for the output , Spain is old and at the end of the decline curve where decay is minimal . Trinni is young and decline is , as expected for the region in year one , ………high . That is normal . The point is that the company survives and can ,depending on the recovery of oil price , improve its lot again . It is in a position where it once was some years ago and people do invest in recovery plays because that is where the big money is made ( ie the 0.5p to 6p recoveries ) .
   Not sure about the Whinni Maths this time , may be right and may be wrong depending on how you read the RNS :-
   I took it that Creditors = 6.5 mill less 1.5 paid in shares = 5 mill to pay

   Loans = 10 mill draw down of which 4 mill retained by bank leaving 6 mill to repay . Total creditors thus 11 mill . Which would leave some for drilling if they get a fresh 20 mill and that would then make more sense as a statement ( ie the RNS ) I could be wrong , I could be right .

   Do try to calm down old boy …….. you will have a heart attack . My dad committed suicide when I was in my twenties so I can share some small perspective ……….. people will say cruel things from time to time because they dont walk in your shoes . Comes with the territory . Let it wash over you like water off a Ducks back .

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   Drunken Sailor

   24 February 2016, 10:18

   Wildes you were right! my projections were way off the mark – production in Q4 was less than even my worse case estimates.

   “The debt to BNPP remains, as previously announced, in default and on demand”

   They can’t pay the froggies what they owe in March. The froggies will wait to see if there really are Yanks stupid enough to actually sign the term sheet for $20m. If not they will pull the plug before production declines to complete joke figure (already not much more than a standard petrol pump), if there are then the mega dilution happens exactly as predicted.

   I can’t be arsed to do any Q1 production predictions at the moment, but when I can I clearly need to assume far higher decline rates from Trinidad (world class assets my arse and be a bit more generous to Spain which has declined from “September average production of 186 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”).” but nowhere near as much as I expected once they had pulled all maintenance Capex

   Your much vaunted 6% decline Q on Q between Q2 and Q3 (Jul, Aug and Sep not Jun Jul Aug) to 896 now looks a bit sick does it not. Especially as all those new wells drilled in Q3 have provided a full quarter’s contribution not just part quarter, as taken into account in my analysis.

   So what was the Q on Q decline rate for the whole company between Q3 and Q4? I can’t find it anywhere in the RNS. It is a good job I know how to do % so 896 in Q3 down to 658 in Q4 with most of that decline being Trinidad is 26.56% in just one Quarter! Tom’s dodgy analysis that came up with an underlying annual decline rate of about 80% for Trinidad, that we both criticised, looks to be pretty damn close to the mark.

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   cooperman

   24 February 2016, 14:42

   Tom, your problem is, you tell the truth , people ( shareholders in lgo) don’t want to hear this, please stop

   They want to hear that their 6 p share value will return and they don’t have to admit they have been duped by their messiah

   When in reality their money has gone , never to return !

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   wildrides

   25 February 2016, 02:21

   Drunk ……….. I see your pissed again . Pull your head out of Whinni’s arse and you might notice a few things :-
   The LGO share price went up yesterday by more than the % average annual return of Whinni’s Nifty Fifty Club . Why take a year to do what you can do in a day . You godda be in it to win it . Even if its just for a day .
   Fact is none of your or Whinni,s doomsday statements of zero pence came true . Your both in denial and very bad losers . Very Bad .
   Spain output went up in Jan ( by a few BOPD ) not down . Trinni output went down as expected with no spending on workovers and no new wells . Standard for the region . The method out there being to drill lots of very cheap wells on land and keep drilling . Obviously oil price has to keep on recovering for this model to work ongoing . Its the oil price stupid ………… KISS …….. again .
   The statement you make about whether or not LGO can make the March payment is unknown at this time depending on many factors . You dont know and I dont know who might be prepared to help out , if needed, with a portion of that payment . Its a known unknown .
   I am happy making money in the meanwhile I shall pick a few losers - ignoring the take profits & cut loss advice and also ignoring a stack of winners as I am determined to give a totally misleading picture since I am still bitter about how at 0.3p, LGO is 95% down even today. So here goes with my misleading list

   Teathers ,
   Stanley Gibbons
   Obtala
   Atalaya
   Fox
   Mirada
   Moil
   Oh dear - can I be more misleading? .

9. ---

   wildrides

   25 February 2016, 02:44

   Dear readers,

   please note the comment above has been edited and altered by the editor and is not what I sent in .

   Dear Readers Indeed it has, it was edited in the interests of accuracy & to show what a humourless prick Wildes has become TW

10. ---

    wildrides

    25 February 2016, 02:51

    Dear readers

    This has been added to my comment above by the Editor :-

    “I shall pick a few losers – ignoring the take profits & cut loss advice and also ignoring a stack of winners as I am determined to give a totally misleading picture since I am still bitter about how at 0.3p, LGO is 95% down even today. So here goes with my misleading list

    Teathers ,
    Stanley Gibbons
    Obtala
    Atalaya
    Fox
    Mirada
    Moil
    Oh dear – can I be more misleading? .

    TW Note: Indeed I have edited Wildes post in the interests of accuracy, he can thank me later

11. ---

    wildrides

    25 February 2016, 03:24

    Well you should have stated in the actual post that you altered that you had infact done so and it was not entirely my comments , and that would be your right as the editor and absolutely fine . It is your site and your absolute right ………………….. but to alter it and represent it as my statements without saying so within the post was wrong . Ban me if you wish , edit my posts with an explanation in the post if you wish , but kindly dont misrepresent me by printing stuff I did not write under my comment name with no explanation for readers . I am happy to be judged on my own stupidity without your “helpful” additions altering my meanings . Your still my hero on fraud busting what ever you decide to do and nothing will change that ;-)

    Hugs & Kisses
    WR

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    Duck and Dive

    25 February 2016, 03:59

    Apparently, Dodgy Dave liked the RNS so much he bought another 20m shares and the BBMs are lapping it up (+18% so far). Obviously this means he has no knowledge of any imminent good news.

    A CLN might have been more helpful to LGO though.

13. ---

    wildrides

    25 February 2016, 05:02

    Duck ……… yep an interest free loan from Del Boy Lemongas to LGO raised against his 100ft vessel as security would be a decent gesture from the large one to LGO .

    WR
    ( Not on twitter or facebook or other BB , only here folks , I think , unless you know different ? and Uncle Thomas allowing …. naturally ……. because he is Editor )

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    Drunken Sailor

    25 February 2016, 05:09

    Wildes,

    I have been saying for ages March / April is the crunch time for LGO unless they can get an existing shareholder shafting package away.

    How can you say none of it came true when we are not even in Mar / April – do not misrepresent me.

    My predictions were wrong on the high side. Given the misleading info put out by the company do you blame me for that?

    Short term movement of share prices prove nothing about what is going to happen to a company. Indeed it was Lenigas ramping that created it and not the info in the RNS, which if interpreted properly is a complete disaster and effectively says “we do a deal with the yanks in the next couple of months (no guarantee we can) or it is tits up time” – Ie exactly what I have been saying. Even at the current completely mad shareprice Malcolm (breaking strain of a wet lettuce leaf) Stacy is still 60% down on what he would have sold at, had you not talked him out of it with all your clap trap. Malcolm’s fault. It is his money and his decision.

    If TW has backed some shares that are losers then it his wife’s trust money and his decision. I have backed enough dogs in my time and hopefully learned the lessons from doing so.

    I do agree that editing a post without making it clear in someway that it has been edited is very naughty. If a company or a broker did that then TW would quite rightly be on their case. I did catch one company out who edited their interims after they had been approved by the Nomad – chocolate teapots at AIM Reg and FCA did sweet FA about it as usual. I also caught Lenigas out putting false figures in REM annual accounts – corrected within days, but nothing done about it.

15. ---

    wildrides

    25 February 2016, 07:03

    Drunk …………… your in Denial and so is Whinni Froth . Meanwhile the share just goes up . The share game is about making money and nowt else . Your both just bad losers . Whining Froth is the worst loser I have ever known . He thinks its fine to kick shite out of his vendetta companies day after day but when I kick shite out of his SP tips in retaliation he does not like it . But its his site and he can be as AC/DC as he likes since he is editor . Malcolm is his own man and I cant recall Malcolm being told by me to do anything . I just express my opinion . LGO have gone from 0.22 to buy upto 0.36 to sell in the last few days …………… thats 63% increase . I deeply apologise to anyone who has inadvertently made some money because of anything I have said . Please unburden yourself and send it to me by post and Karma will be restored .

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    Drunken Sailor

    25 February 2016, 08:06

    Wildes,

    We all know Lenigas can ramp a stock and that is all this rise is. Some get lucky because they bought before the ramp, as long as they sell and take profits they make money, those who buy on the ramp invariably end up losing money. That is not investing, it is not even doing some analysis to work out when the catalysts might be for a short term shareprice move and backing it with money. It is about pure luck being in at the right time when Lenigas ramps.

    The production figures are dire the financing news is not much better still not confirmed and no idea what the terms will be. The froggies still have the company by the balls and are just waiting to see if the Yanks really are stupid enough to transfer their bank accounts into the froggies bank account. 60% up but Malcom is still 60% down on the point at which he had finally made up his mind to sell – he should have sold and then published his article. Remember this:

    wildrides 21 September 2015, 08:58 Malcoooooooooooooooooooooooom! O yea of little faith …………. LGO will come back to you when oil price improves ………… and alot faster than Shell B or BP will . They will one bag and LGO will three bag . Averaging down when oil price improvement starts is surely a better plan ? – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/15142/kiss-me-goodbye-hardy-and-let-me-go-lgo#sthash.jJPK0FzV.dpuf

    Malcolm Stacey 21 September 2015, 10:53 Thanks, gang. Wilders I hope so. I took your advice on going into LGO, and your tips are very often brill – in the end. So I’ve changed my mind and have now decided to hang on for a recovery in oil price, too. BG is my biggest holding, Philo. I expect it to rise to £13 from the present tenner when the merger gets nearer. And yes I was hold RSA when the bad news came. More on that from me tomorrow. Spaggers – Yep, Dragon Oil has saved me an oily hell. Still up on oil shares this year. – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/15142/kiss-me-goodbye-hardy-and-let-me-go-lgo#sthash.jJPK0FzV.dpuf

    n Sailor 21 September 2015, 15:34 Malcolm, You have the breaking strain of a wet lettuce leaf! You had made up your mind to sell – about 3 months too late, but better late than never. Then you let yourself get talked out of it really easily. One day, maybe 3 years down the line, LGO might get back to where it is today. In the meantime there is nothing but pain ahead for shareholders. Tom’s analysis is spot on. The best asset LGO had was the ramptastic Lenigas who could be relied on to raise money early when things looked dodgy. Without big Dave at the helm the shareprice will drift lower and lower until the inevitable mega diluting placing is needed desperately and it will be done at maybe a third of the price today. With all that dilution the chances of getting back to where it is today are slim. I see no short term reason why the oil price is going to rise significantly and more and more distressed companies are going to be chasing after fewer and fewer investors prepared to put new money in. Learn the lessons from AFREN! don’t just hold in hope, take your losses and put the money into something sensible. If LGO is still around in 2 years then maybe it will be worth bottom fishing. – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/15142/kiss-me-goodbye-hardy-and-let-me-go-lgo#sthash.jJPK0FzV.dpuf

    Malcolm Stacey 21 September 2015, 17:23 You’re right there, Drunkers. If I had any sense at all I would follow my own advice. But too often I let my pride rule my head. It’s always very hard for me to sell at a loss, or to resist advice from fellow traders whom I respect – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/15142/kiss-me-goodbye-hardy-and-let-me-go-lgo#sthash.jJPK0FzV.dpuf

    wildrides 21 September 2015, 18:09 Drunk ………. your way out there ……… LGO drilled 7 wells this summer …….. the sales output of which was not included in the interims just issued . They have another 45 permitted up ready to drill when they want . There is no hurry up . Just a panic started by SP. The very reason oil price will rise is for the very same reason LGO are cutting output . Its Barely economic at current prices . The price will be rising by Xmas . Trinity for example ( next door to LGO ) , is drilling zero wells this year and instead going into low cost, managed decline . This is happening world wide . There will be a tipping point and it wont be two years away – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/15142/kiss-me-goodbye-hardy-and-let-me-go-lgo#sthash.jJPK0FzV.dpuf