Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast - My friend you are in sheer denial on Gulf Keystone, your shares are worthless

Comments

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   Daniel Victor

   31 January 2016, 11:49

   No quarrel with the investment calls here – but Gulf Keystone did find a lot of oil.Aren’t you being a little hard on their management here,Tom ? Is it their fault that the oil price plummeted and the Kurds didn’t pay up on time ?

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   Tom Winnifrith

   31 January 2016, 11:58

   Dan

   a) sure it found oil but has it made a return ion it even in good times? Reserves/sales are vanity, cashflow reality
   b) Nope Todd Kozel was a greedy overpaid ramper

   t

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   Phil

   1 February 2016, 01:05

   Anyone who thinks the KRG are some sort of benign reaching out for true freedom need to pop down their local chemist and order a dose of reality.

   Zero Hedge have offered up articles regarding the circumstance of oil in this region and for those wise enough to read them, there is clear evidence that KRG are themselves responsible for those delayed payments,

   As far as bondholders working in support of shareholders, while you are at the chemist get a double dose. It seems to me a good case to pick up those heavily discounted bonds, short against them and get a slice of the Shaikan bloc on the cheap.

   I’ll have a odds on bet bondholders in Avanti wished AVN had a Shaikan somewhere in the balance sheet

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   wildrides

   1 February 2016, 02:30

   First thing comrade Whinney Froth is …….. we are not in a bear market . The market is only 15% down on 7000 level.
   Secondly …….. It is the oil price that caused LGO to have difficulty . If it had stayed at $110 we would not be discussing it at all .
   Thirdly ……… Oil shares will spike when the shorters get windy ………. if you are not in it you cant win it .
   Forth ………. LGO has good directors in post Del Boy era . One did 27 years with BP and was responsible for BP drilling world wide. If oil price recovers so will LGO ……… if it dont then it wont ……..same for all . Shell is shedding 10,000 jobs ………. I wonder why that is ?

   I am not in denial ………. just backing the underdog to recover because you are unfairly picking on it as part of your DL vendetta . You may as well pick on TRIN , next door neighbor to LGO , because that fell from 25p to 2p over the same time frame .

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   Steve Sutton

   1 February 2016, 03:28

   Guess the KRG must be finding money behind the sofa for bullets and tanks from now on!

   Another small, but significant, stepping stone towards GKP survival. As I implied Gulf Keystone and other IOC’s operating in Kurdistan are of strategic importance to the country, they will not be allowed to go bust.

   http://mnr.krg.org/index.php/en/press-releases/535-international-oil-companies-to-receive-fiscal-entitlements-pursuant-to-their-production-sharing-contract

   Today’s statement from the MNR may entice a major to bid or it could assist GKP to secure a joint venture partner with deep pockets for the Shaikan field..

   I wonder what the real short position in GKP really is, at some point this will have to unwind and when it does!

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   Phil

   1 February 2016, 03:28

   Wildrides

   The Director with 27 years experience working for BP being responsible for worldwide drilling. would that include drilling in the Gulf of Mexico by any chance. I’m just wondering why he isn’t working in a well perked, well pensioned job in BP anymore, now spending his time down with the proles on the lower tables.

   I worked as a freelancer for BP in my time including a 2 year contract in Suva, Fiji. Miles of white empty sandy beaches, warm waters, the girls are gorgeous, the place is cheap. Putting a fly in front of Bonefish in knee deep clear salt flats, Snapper from the mangrove and Sailfish off reef in deep waters. So where was the boss?, he was with me out beyond the reef, fishing for Sailfish, it was his boat.

   It was paradise and the best paid holiday I ever had, There will be a reason that director isn’t working for BP anymore, because nobody ever walks away from that

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   wirplit

   1 February 2016, 04:28

   My point is simple. You gave a very negative view on REM when they were right down and then they went back up not very far its true, but not out either as you seemed to indicate. So judgement is better to have held. I didn’t. So as for GKP I have a few but they are so far down what is point of selling now? The situation is not clear to you or to anyone as so many unusual and unknowable factors are in play. Its in no ones interest to bankrupt them at present or not that I can see anyway… as the signal would be dire for Kurdistan whose own prospects are highly uncertain so unless impossible to save… or a stitch up is engineered that could weather the plunge in sentiment that would follow maybe a better punt to hold on. Most of the money is already lost anyway.

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   Jimbo

   1 February 2016, 05:31

   Wilds,

   Oil isn’t going to spike dramatically any time soon. Reason? It’s all about the US Dollar Mate, all about the USD and a $9 trillion carry trade unwind, and oil is 100% caught up in this. I take no credit for spotting this, but am happy to have had access to the following presentation in December 2014 when it was behind a subscription paywall:

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK_cc_1UNT0

   Incidentally, he forecast $20 – $30 oil on its way at the time. I only mention this because I recall a recent comment from you stating nobody did. You were 100% wrong. Nobody is clairvoyant, but this bloke absolutely nailed it!

   Cheers.

   Jimbo

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   wildrides

   1 February 2016, 08:29

   Jimbo ……….. I said oil shares would spike ( not oil price ) . I think oil price will steadily recover and at some point shorters of oil stocks will cave when they realise supply and demand really are truly coming back into balance / under supply opposite the demand at the time .

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    Wayne

    1 February 2016, 11:54

    Hey Tom, you’re a pretty sharp guy, what do you put today’s 18% rise down to?