The FTSE 100 closed down on two consecutive days, it would appear the bear trend has resumed. Oil is still trading near the highs, the S&P 500 is still trading near the highs, it seems the FTSE is going down alone. It could be something to do with the referendum or it could simply be that the UK index is leading the way as it has often done during the bear market. In this case I expect the S&P to follow the FTSE lower.
After last Friday strong rally, the FTSE closed down yesterday. It seems the rally is running out of steam. Same thing in the S&P 500, I was expecting a rally near 2070, but the highest level yesterday was 2055 and the index closed down.
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Last week I said that the FTSE 100 was leading the way down after peaking at 6,237. Very often after a long rally, we see the FTSE 100 underperform the S&P 500. Such a behaviour is associated with a market that is losing strength.
Yesterday my sentiment indicator turned bearish. I know the FTSE 100 is in bullish mood this morning but this was expected. Don’t forget that the FTSE was up 10% in 11 days at the recent high. Such a move has stimulated the bulls, they think the bull market has resumed. Well they will be disappointed, the move up currently underway is a dead cat bounce.
The stock market sell off came amid concerns that the stock market slide itself together with the slowdown in China will cause more capital outflows. Faced with a falling stock market and growing pessimism about the economy, investors are moving money out of China and into countries with better returns.
The FTSE 100 is down 6% in the first two weeks of January, the trend has turned down after a decent bounce during the fourth quarter of 2015. The S&P 500 has turned down too and in China, it is simply a matter of time before China's stockmarket makes a new low.
Despite the recent sell off my BTI (sentiment indicator) is still rising (bullish divergence), an indication that the FTSE will rally. But the rally must start now otherwise there is a risk the BTI will turn down. Sentiment is affected by stock market declines, if the market falls and the decline lasts too long people turn bearish.
The FTSE 100 opened higher this morning boosted by a strong rally on Wall Street. As I said recently, the S&P 500 is a wild index, it can rally for days or weeks to the point where investors will feel safe then it will sell off. The rally was driven by technology, energy and healthcare stocks. Better than expected manufacturing PMIs in Europe, UK and US also helped stocks rally.
Once again the BTI, a sentiment indicator, changed direction as the stock market is unable to close up or down for two consecutive days. Sentiment is bearish but the timing indicators are oversold and the wave count is nearly complete. Overall it’s bullish.
The market is rallying as investors bet US interest rates won’t go up tonight. They could be disappointed in the event of a hike, the market would decline sharply. People have bought the rumour which is "no hike", this is why the stock market is rallying. It could also be due to short covering as some people don’t want to be short ahead of the announcement.
