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Articles by Lucian Miers

What happens when Open AI fails? Three shorts I've taken out

The recent frenzy in the media regarding the existential threat to humanity posed by AI has been painful to witness. The BBC, sloppy and credulous, has given a massive amount of airtime to half-witted politicians and self-styled experts talking half-baked nonsense about the unsubstantiated torrent of rubbish spewing out of Silicon Valley. The real threat posed by the AI bubble is, of course, the damage to the world economy that is likely to ensue when it bursts. I say when not if because it seems increasingly clear that the business model of the so-called frontier labs, which are essentially Open AI and Anthropic, has a close to zero chance of achieving anything like the level of return demanded by the insane amounts of capital misallocated to the space.

Patriotism: The Last refuge of a Scoundrel

For some reason great quotes are invariably attributed to the great American satirist and writer Mark Twain but it is undoubtedly our own great brummie Dr. Samuel Johnson who came up with the quip that patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel. That the creepy boss of Open AI Sam Altman and his only slightly less creepy rival Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei are scoundrels of the first order is no longer open to question.

It's Not Too Late to Buy Japan

Earlier this month the US Treasury Department publicly joined the Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market to support the yen which had breached 160 against the dollar and was trading at 40 year lows. It is extremely unusual for Washington to intervene in the forex markets and despite claiming it was simply an act of friendship and solidarity the reasons were pragmatic. 

The MicroStrategy Ponzi “Strategy” Finally Unravelling

Back in the day (around Covid madness time) when Bitcoin was a thing a few flaky and failing software companies came up with a cunning plan. The leader of the pack was the colourful Micro Strategy (US: MSTR) boss Michael Saylor who had narrowly escaped gaol in the dot com bubble for various accounting shenanigans and was a proven tax evader 

Have we Reached Peak AI?

Until May this year NASDAQ required companies to have at least 10% of their outstanding shares in public hands and to wait until the next annual review date before inclusion in its indices. New “fast entry” rules have now been introduced mainly to allow the SpaceX, Open AI and Anthropic IPOs, the three largest in history, to become constituents of the NASDAQ 100 index after 15 trading days and with sub 10% floats.

Serve Robotics heading for the new zero

 Despite a plethora of pundits and experts confidently predicting what will happen in the next weeks and months it is important to realise that none of us have a clue and distinguishing between what we don’t know and what it is reasonable to infer is crucial for making investment decisions. 

WeWork déjà vu offers 2 mega shorts

Lost in the mists of time in the year of 2 BC (Before Covid) some readers may remember the cautionary tale of WeWork. Run by a charismatic, pot-smoking, creep named Adam Neuman this office rental business dressed up as a “technology-driven lifestyle brand” reached a private equity valuation of $47 billion in 2019, after a $2 billion investment from Softbank’s Masayoshi Son, to tide it over to what was going to be the IPO of the decade.

It is not too late to buy gold!

Donald Trump’s somewhat boorish insistence that the US should own, rather than merely rent Greenland looked like it could be the catalyst for the market correction that many have predicted for 2026. That seems to have been bodged but now he threatens his NATO allies with a tariff war over Iran.

This AI play is on the Slide with More to Come

I suggested in early November that if big daddy Nvidia’s shares failed to rally on what were surely going to be stellar Q3 results due on the 19th of that month, it could well signal the peak of AI euphoria. Well, the shares popped 5% in after-hours trading but gave all that and a bit more back the following day and I sense that a few bears are finally coming out of hibernation in this sector and, while few are yet going to work on Nvidia specifically or questioning the huge potential of AI in general, one name is cropping up a fair bit.

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TOM
TOM7 Oct 2026
got the pricing from AI, v much doubt there are any high class UYLs operating in Wrexham
EXPOSE: Avacta Placing – the truth behind Project Hawkeye
COLINS2
COLINS27 Oct 2026
You seem to know an awful lot about the pricing of Ukrainian young ladies.......The subject comes up more and more these days, is it 'book early' and avoid the Xmas rush?
EXPOSE: Avacta Placing – the truth behind Project Hawkeye
KUSSSB
KUSSSB7 Oct 2026
Held since 91p, added @ 109. Very positive cast Tom, gold prospects, story changes weekly, you cannot ramp that.A good win for Evil, enjoy dinner with wife!
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 1: Amaroq day
PHIL5566
PHIL55666 Oct 2026
As 19,451potential terrorist invade this country, it is OK that is down 40% on last year.The police turn up and escort them to their 3 star hotels with 3 meals a day some pocket money and lawyers and doctors and dentists.I have not looked but imagine their is not a Jew amongst them.Probably very few christians.Though more Muslims to vote Green and Labour and join protests.The police can do nothing but turn a blind eye to the grooming and rape gangs and protests.If you are white and you throw a plastic bottle at the police you can expect 2 years within days of the incident.Such is the UK, the political elite are building.
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 2: It’s October 7 tomorrow and Britain sickens me again & why there is no Kenmare read across
PHIL5566
PHIL55666 Oct 2026
My 2000 AMRQ is not enough to compensate for my 2,000,000 KEFI. Though I am glad I bought some AMRQ.I like dividends, so look forward to even a small payment in the near future.
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 1: Amaroq day
TOM
TOM6 Oct 2026
My answer is that it is not necessary to consider hypothetical questions merely to know a little history. But folks on the left rarely know history other than the history of colonialism and white oppression learned in Black History Month.The Roman Empire did not borrow money, for a while it engaged in fiscal prudence spending what it could raise via taxes both on its own lands and on those that it colonised.But the demand for panes et circuses grew, the ancient equivalent of the welfare state and the BBC and worse still the costs of supporting a bloated military grew and eventually Rome engaged in MMT, it printed money or rather cut and cut the amount of silver in each coin. It worked for a while but then as folks realised that more coins chasing the same amount of hard assets caused inflation. And that caused societal breakdown as inflation always does as the gap between those with hard assets and wage power and those without grew. As always happens that leads to civil war and or societal breakdown ( see Weimar, 1600s England, etc).Inflation encouraged speculation rather than investment and distorted any idea of making a return on capital via hard work and so the economy floundered. Economic weakness and societal breakdown destroyed the Roman EmpireThat Lucian is why MMT is not just a duff theory but it is something that is proven not to work.
Win a bottle of champagne from Lucian Miers MMT contest
JAMES1N1
JAMES1N16 Oct 2026
I cannot see how TerpenTech can “pay” this time. Last occasion, if i understand right, it was by issuing shares, but given the percentage that Eden now hold, i cannot see this wheeze working this time round…
EXPOSE: Eden Biosolutions – revisiting the dodgy TerpeneTech transaction as new accounts out, this is as kosher as a pork pie
EASYASOT3
EASYASOT36 Oct 2026
And you were doing so well with the QBT name! Referred to them as Quantum Data at around 10:35Maybe a question for this Sunday Quiz: How many times did Tom get QBT's name wrong this week? lol
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 2: It’s October 7 tomorrow and Britain sickens me again & why there is no Kenmare read across

Complete Coverage

That Was the Week that Was 7 Days of ShareProphets

Tuesday »

Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 2: It's October 7 tomorrow and Britain sickens me again & why there is no Kenmare read across
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 hours ago
SNX
Synectics – “confident in the group’s growth opportunity” but wasn’t it also confident before?, And…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 16 hours ago
KEN
Kendrick: surely statement needed on the placing that is underway?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 18 hours ago
TEP
Telecom Plus – trading update emphasises “encouraging progress”, but how ‘encouraging’ really?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 18 hours ago
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast No 1: Amaroq day
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 hours ago
MVI
Marwyn Value Investors – interims, “a number of different routes to further value creation” BUY
  • By Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore
  • 20 hours ago
MPAL
MedPal AI – sales are vanity , cash is fact and so is a lack of it
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 hours ago
CLBS
Celebrus Technologies – I having previously questioned its contractual conversion from a “strong” pipeline, what about now a “Half Year Trading Update”?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 21 hours ago
EDEN
EXPOSE: Eden Biosolutions – revisiting the dodgy TerpeneTech transaction as new accounts out, this is as kosher as a pork pie
  • By Tom Winnifrith, the Sheriff of AIM
  • 23 hours ago
AVCT
EXPOSE: Avacta Placing – the truth behind Project Hawkeye
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 24 hours ago

Monday »

HERC
Hercules – “New Water Sector Contract Wins” announcement, ramptastic?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 2 days ago
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: a challenge for Bexley YC's 57 year old chairman, the Quantum scandal and Amaroq for the FTSE 250 this week?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 2 days ago
QTX
Quartix Technologies – “pleased to report a continuing strong financial performance”, how “strong” relative to the valuation?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 2 days ago
Beggar
What's the benefits bill where you live? Fascinating new tool from the TPA
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 2 days ago
VSVS
We tipped the shares then came the bid
  • By Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore
  • 2 days ago
QBT
EXPOSE: Has Quantum Blockchain misled investors about the Italian House? Part 2
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 2 days ago
ENSI
EnSilica – full-year results emphasise “moved into profitability”, but still cash-burning…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 2 days ago
QBT
EXPOSE: Has Quantum Blockchain lied to investors about the Italian House?
  • By Tom Winnifrith, the Sheriff of AIM
  • 2 days ago
PBX
Is it always a bad sign when you switch auditors to PKF Littlejohn?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 2 days ago
Clown
Win a bottle of champagne from Lucian Miers MMT contest
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 2 days ago

Sunday »

Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: As YOUR hard earned cash is being used to punt on an AI ramp, I look at the whacky accounts of FN Advisory
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 3 days ago
AAU
Ariana Resources – Dokwe project Feasibility Programme update follows interims, Buy
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 3 days ago
Gold
The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Falls Again In Face Of Bond Rout
  • By Nigel Somerville
  • 3 days ago
Quiz
The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #366
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 3 days ago
Blackboard
Visual Aid: Who Controls the Critical Minerals Powering AI?
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 3 days ago
URU
URU Metals – Last Minute Results And A Bucket-Shop Special Smash’n’Grab Placing
  • By Nigel Somerville
  • 3 days ago
Reading
Sunday Long Reads: Britain back in EU?, Lazy Hitler, Electrician Wannabee, I, Claudius, AI v the Pope
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 3 days ago
Top-10
Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending October 3
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 3 days ago

Saturday »

Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: £1.2m of questions as the Reabold bid for Union Jack fails
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 3 days ago
V3TC
Vaultz Capital – third time lucky? Not on your nelly - more red flags than May Day in Moscow
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 4 days ago
Atomic
Video: The Uranium Blow-Off Top, AI Hyper-Scalers & ‘Huge Value’ in The Miners
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 4 days ago
BMS
Braemar – half-year trading update, an “increased volatility”-benefitting Buy
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 4 days ago
Price-Vs-Value
ShareProphets readers tips for 2026 prize competition – (just after) end-September update
  • By Steve Moore
  • 4 days ago

Friday »

Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast from my sick bed
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 5 days ago
KMK
Kromek – “expansion to its revolving credit facility”, but I thought it was profitability “slightly ahead of expectations”?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 5 days ago
EAAS
eEnergy – “pleased to announce” fundraising. Er, really?!…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 5 days ago
Gold
Video: Why These Critical Metals Will Explode Higher, ‘Uncharted Territory’ For Gold
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 5 days ago
PDL
Petra Diamonds misleads as it finally fesses to the HMRC winding up petition
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 5 days ago
RM
RM plc – sale of Technical Teaching Solutions business, still a sum-of-the-parts Buy
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 5 days ago
VLRM
EXPOSE: Valereum interim accounts demonstrate grotesque non compliances with IFRS 9
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 5 days ago
AMRQ
Amaroq – “pleased” with further Nanoq drilling programme and metallurgical test work, here’s why…
  • By Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore
  • 5 days ago
QBT
Quantum Blockchain Technologies deeper dive accounting nerdery, nothing adds up, wholesale IFRS breaches
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 5 days ago
Bear
The Easy Money Fairy Tale Is About To End Violently says the world's second most foul mouthed financial podcaster
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 5 days ago

Thursday »

Boom
Fagash vs Chris Gilbert death match Round 2 at Sharestock 2027: early bird priced tickets on sale now
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith bearcast: a new share trade
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago
ECP
EXPOSE: £24m cap Eight Capital Partners declared profit but a looming liquidity challenge
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago
TPT
Topps Tiles – “expects adjusted profit before tax for the full year to be in line with current market expectations”, not the initial expectations though!…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 6 days ago
QBT
Quantum Blockchain Interims: how is this AIM posterboy company not classified as bust?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago
Beggar
To be fair to Andy Burnham and chancellor Healey as the 30 year bond tops 6%
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago
LST
Light Science Technologies – after just in August “confidence in a strong second half has strengthened”, why are the shares now slumping on a “Trading Update”?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 6 days ago
ECOB
Eco Buildings – interims, a progress in Albania and elsewhere STRONG BUY, this could multibag by Christmas
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 6 days ago
VLRM
Valereum Interims Part 1: A fess up on past untruths, the auditor calls out cock & it looks to be bust!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago
Bully
Paul Mathieson back where he started – my mother’s suicide, this time he ropes in my late father as well
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 6 days ago

Wednesday »

WPHO
Windar Photonics – interims, how strong a base now “to restructure and grow the business”?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 7 days ago
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith bearcast: from Avacta's crazy valuation to a £1 billion joke, Mr Turd and a potential 25 bagger
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago
KEN
Kendrick interims: do the maths, its got no money at all! Bailout placing ahoy! £24 million Timber!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago
TAND
Tan Delta Systems – interims argue “a strategic market position with a compelling offer”. Really?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 7 days ago
TLW
Tullow $393 million tax blow – could that sink the ship?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago
Bear
Video: Food Shortages, Inflationary Spiral & Why Gold Miners Will Benefit ‘Tremendously’
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago
SALT
If Microsalt hits breakeven in 2027 as it promises I am a banana & so is Evil Banksta
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago
FUTR
Future plc – argues trading “in line”, but why after previously “accelerating” its share buyback is it now to “pause” it then?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 7 days ago
BMV
BREAKING: Sath Ganesarajah of Bluebird breaks the rules yet again
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago
AGI
EXPOSE: Potentially AI – significant loss in last interims before RTO and breaches of IFRS accounting standards
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 7 days ago