Don't Rely on History – Move Back to the Future.

Comments

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   nigel somerville

   7 January 2015, 02:21

   Not to mention Zak Mir’s recommendation that Tern (AIM: TERN) would hit 25p. (snigger) :-)

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   David Russell

   7 January 2015, 06:16

   I’m also not a fan of chartists, and think they make it up as they go along. My mate paid £2500 to learn charting and when you ask him about anything he says things like it could go up but then again it could go down. My charts telling me that next week we will see some movement in the share price but at present I cannot say which way it will go but it will move. The funny thing is people pay good money to learn and the only money my mate earned charting was introducing some people he works with to the £2500 course. I think some people would be better off reading the tea leaves or tarot cards. Saying that if It works for you why change it and I think Tesco will drop a lot more and that as nothing to do with a chart.:)

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   CHARTMAN

   7 January 2015, 08:05

   I use charts for best entry and selling opportunities – at which I’ve found they’ve (mostly, on average) provided me with excellent results. (Most recently Audioboom :)

   (By the way, no £2.5k paid-for lessons in charting for me – I’m 100% self taught higgeldy piggety from books bought cheaply).

   When fundamentals let you down and cost you serious money, eventually you too, will tell Luke Skywalker & co., to fk off with his feel-the-force and come over to the dark side :)

   Note: Charts used for buying and selling entry points (sometimes temporary selling points in volatile stocks), not analysis of companies. Analyse the company first – then use charts to choose your buying entry point.
   - Or if already a holder, it can guide on when to sell out at best-ish sp if/when you want out.

   I think Tesco is a poor example to make your point. Charts are the only thing that told you to get out of Tesco for the past 5 years. (I was in and out of Tesco years ago, before I took an interest in TA). So there has been no real true ‘suddeness’ to Tesco’s decline -just go look at the long term trend charts for Tesco’s SP – which is why I’m surprised that Buffett had to admit he’d fouled-up over Tesco. Really? I think it was more a case of his inertia – because the sp has been telling you it’s been doing nothing – for years!

   Keeping an eye on Tesco though and I will play it in due course, when appropriate.

   Simple MA charts would be too slow in day to day trading, granted – but MACD would have saved you every time you felt it was safe to return to Tesco. There have been a few rallies on the way down. Again MACD is faster responding than MA charts if you fancied your chances in the up-rallies on the way down….

   Tesco, as I post is blue and up on a small rally today (2.8% up so far) on the day – yet my charts warned of another screaming sell against Tesco as of close last night. So you might see 180’s+ right now, but my charts say expect 180’s to evaporate – imminently.

   Then again, they’re just charts :)

   Incidentally for any M&S punters out there, they gave a screaming sell at the same time as they did for Tesco last night. Those sells are not sell and never return but an indicator of a period of decline in the sp. – not a permanent decline. Well sometimes it does. but for day to day shares in the hurley burley of things, it’s usually only rallies in either direction for a few weeks/month or so.

   They also gave a screaming buy last night on the current rally that Quindell is currently enjoying. Make of that what you will.

   Being Quindell it probably be short lived though.

   Oh well.

   Use what works for your personality. I use a bit of everything – TA charts, fundamentals – the lot – use one to back test the other. I’d say charts give me 75% – 85% accuracy. The remainder being sheer luck.

   It’s enough to give an edge – to make me smile when I look at my (mostly) blue portfolio.

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   J P Spaghetti

   7 January 2015, 08:36

   It does make me chuckle when I hear of or read about statisticians applying quite well known if esoteric techniques to predict share price movements. I’m not one myself but so-called principal components analysis is an old stalwart used to reveal the real driving factors behind a generally noisy data set (independent components analysis seems to currently be en vogue). They’ll speak of extracting macroeconomic cycles, the price/wage inflationary spiral, etc. All heavy stuff. But then I consider, in particular, the cesspit that is AIM and think “if only they knew”!

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   wildrides

   7 January 2015, 16:15

   Witch craft and Jiggery pokery that fecking charting . I am prepared to admit it works a bit on FTSE stocks, but on AIM its pants . Thing is ………….. its mainly a self fulfilling condition . British Bulls chart says buy …………….all the morons buy ……… price goes up . Someone at British Bulls must make alot of money buying before the chart is published .

   The only thing that makes chart following profitable is charters ………. twats ………. if you have enough twats gathered at one point in the market they become experts ( which as we all know are just “ retired drips under pressure “ ) that act like a herd because the all believe the same nonsense . Its the David Ike cult of the investing industry . Just like scientology and Tom cruise ……… completely fecking nuts.
   I just love it when an RNS comes out and trashs the charters party .