UK 06:02 Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
BHP Billiton (BLT) certainly hasn’t had much luck recently, with an environmental disaster adding to its low commodity price woes.
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Comments
BobbyChariot
Hi Gary
Unfortunately for BHP there is no bottom unless major players in the industry go bust. This disaster in Brazil is mega in scale and there will be serious consequences (and rightly so, a whole village got wiped out) over and above the paltry $5.2 billion already set aside. Dividend cuts are a given unfortunately and an experienced investor like yourself knows what happens when a company cuts it div – the income funds sell out thus further weighing on the price.
I wouldn’t touch this at all until there is clear evidence that the commodities cycle has turned and the outlook becomes clearer with regard to fines and divvy’s.
Gary Newman
Bobbychariot,
I think a fair bit of that is already priced in, although would expect a further drop on any announcement about the dividend, even though it will be expected.
I think it looks in much better shape than a lot of miners at the moment and can see value from these levels – especially if scaling in and looking to hold long term, given the cyclical nature of commodities.
Very hard to guess the bottom, but in the past have done okay getting in anywhere near the bottom (banks back in 2009 are another example of a sector on its knees, but anyone buying even well above the bottom would have made a decent profit). Same for miners back in 2008/09.
For anyone with a short term view they’d be better off trading the swings, or just leaving it alone completely until sentiment in the sector turns. I would be very surprised if the share price in the next 5 years wasn’t significantly higher than it is now, at some point in that period.
wildrides
Just goes to show no share is safe ……….. the dam debarcle just came flying out of no where . A lesson there for the opponents of spreading risk over a healthy number of shares ( the “all in brigade” ) I thought about selling all my resources share dogs and putting the lot in BHP about a year ago . Glad I resisted now as one or two have recovered well . BHP fall is not far off AIM standards ….. quite remarkable. Thing is from here it will only one bag at most , where as AIMERS will multi bag if they can get through too the upturn without going under ( its a jungle out there)
Gary Newman
Wildrides,
Definitely the case and have to wonder how many have been hit investing large amounts in giants such as BLT, RIO, Rolls Royce, Tesco etc. The dam just exacerbated the problems for this one, but i do think a lot of that is priced in to a large extent – much like BP a few years back once the extent of the problem and likely fines was known.
To be honest if I could ‘bag’ on a FTSE100 share, even if it took 5 years to do so, I’d be pretty happy – I’d also feel a lot safer buying this now (even if it was to dip lower) and holding, than i would sticking money in AIM miners, certainly any serious amount anyway.