UK 00:41 Tuesday, 6 October 2026
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Ben has produced yet another truly awful piece on Gulf Keystone GKP) today, Flip Flop is a stale long and wrong bull, I have called it spot on as a sell from 180p down to today’s 25.75p. But his offering today “facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt” is not based on fact and makes assertions that are ludicrous.
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Comments
Paul Curtis
GKP has a world class oil field. Value in this market is clearly diminished by oil price and politics. GKP are talking to potential buyers now and a corporate deal could be imminent. My view is that an outright bid unlikely and a partial sale will disappoint markets. However GKP story is all about surviving until oil price bounces.
Hence I expect partial sale and this will allow GKP to increase production to 70K bopd. When oil bounces the Kurds will be able to pay back costs and GKP will receive a much better price for oil produced. The political situation should also improve as revenues rise and salaries paid. It’s a virtuous circle but GKP living on the edge until this (or partial sale) occurs
The bonds can then be refinanced or company sold at a valuation that reflects its 1 bn barrel plus potential.
Phil
Whether the KRG pay or not can hardly be called an investment case, would I trust it. Hell no, I spent part of my upbringing living with the Shia, and circa 15% of my own companies turnover comes from the Middle East. Don’t tell me the Kurds are different, because they aint.
No payment, no oil should be the mantra here. You do not buy Rolex watches in Port Said, Carpets from a trader working the Mazagan and you don’t issue a continuous credit line to anyone, never mind anyone in the Middle east
Will GKP finally make it. doesn’t look like it. The next failed payment and the SP will tank.
Paul Curtis
Agreed. No KRG payment this month and Tom will be even more unbearably smug!
They have to pay or last two months credibility goes up in smoke. Appears no significant pipeline disruptions so should happen but fall in oil price a concern
Drunken Sailor
Tom,
You are being a bit unfair on Flip Flop his article continues:
“For Gulf’s shareholders the risks are clear. This has the potential to be another Afren if anything serious goes wrong.
So much depends on the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) maintaining its regular payments. To be honest, the company probably needs the Kurds to increase those payments, but if there are any further delays Gulf has very little in reserve to act as a buffer.
It is now 17 November and we haven’t heard whether or not the KRG has issued another monthly payment. It should have done by now, so it is little wonder that Gulf’s share price closed down at 25.75p last night. My risky punt of last week grows ever riskier.”
What is not clear is his own position. This disclosure says he does not hold but the last sentence indicates he does.
What both your articles expose is how poor the broker note he quotes is. Ben declined to name and shame, perhaps you will not be so coy about it.
chris
At present Saudi Arabia is downing oil prices – however there is an OPEC meeting beginning later this week where that regime will be present. If Arabia shows any hint of supporting production cuts it could be an excuse for punters to up oil junior prices. I have therefore opened a working spread bet short on GKP at 0.22 to allow for this meeting to be out of the way