UK 18:35 Friday, 23 October 2026
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Black-Swan

Black Swan New Year Letter 2015

So as 2015 dawns we can gaze upon the familiar wreckage that is the new norm for the Euro. The blood coming through the Greek bandages, which we were assured were merely little bits of residual bleeding, are now exposed to be the full-on broken limbs some of us said were always there. How much has been spent on Greece? Does any body know? €45 bill to start in 2010, two months later €130bil, €130bil in 2011, the default of 2012 for €206bil and another €130bil needed at the end of 2012…is this the same money: does anybody care?

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Comments


  1. handybrownone

    Dear Richard

    A very nice piece and some interesting points. Buy Russia and buy gold in summary? Some other trends – China no longer is the cheap factory of the world – offshoring moving into Indonesia for low end stuff, Vietnam etc. high tech moving out of china back to the USA – IP getting knicked and now US competitive for skilled labour lots of nice tax incentives and cheap energy. China to move up the value chain? Not sure I’ve not yet bought a Chinese car or anything invented in china. Its a state run centralized economy – where will the enterprise and innovation come from for future growth? Recently China stated that they wish to double the number of patents filed in 5 years -but all the patents I read from China are rubbish and a waste of paper – they are just people fulfilling a target by filing some patents and wasting money. Also they said they wanted to invent some drugs in China and sell them to the west – new drugs – they bought the old Pfizer Sandwchih clinical dept about 6 years ago – no heard a thing – nothing…India has invented and brought to the USA market its first new pharamceutical – that is impressive.

    Russia – massive shrinking population – third world health no manufacturing base – just oil, gas and vodka.

    There are so many conflagrating factors. 100bn investment BRIC fund does not impress me it could all be pissed up against the wall in a China real estate bubble tomorrow.

    Also BTW – perhaps get on with Wishbone rather than writing on SP? The last placing price was 1.5 and today it reached 0.45 and all time low. Even in AIM that is not a good record.


  2. J P Spaghetti

    “Putin is still there with domestic approval ratings over 80%” Really?! Like the Morrison quote, by the way.

    “Out here on the perimeter there are no stars”


  3. Richard Poulden

    Handy,

    You also make some good points. However 1) do not underestimate Russian technology: they put the first man in space and stayed there when the USA did not. 2) I have seen excellent healthcare technology from Russia in some cases way ahead of the West. Check out the research by Konstantin Korotkov at the University of St Petersburg.

    Chinese inventiveness? They are coming from a low base but right now Great Wall are taking the market for 4×4 pick ups and low end 4×4 vehicles the way Toyota took out Land Rover before they realised it. Also, examine the defence technology: Mach 10 DF-21D missile shore to ship for example.

    Lastly let me comment on Wishbone. We are severely limited in what we can say in London and are not allowed to comment on projects or acquisitions on which we are working. I can only point you to the fact that I underwrote £500/- of funding last year and clearly would not have done that if I did not believe in our strategy.

Complete Coverage

That Was the Week that Was 7 Days of ShareProphets

Friday »

Greek Tear
NEW: Win an off peak week at the Greek Hovel and help me out contest
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 16:20
DEBS
Boohoo – emphasises “first time the group has delivered positive profit before tax since August 2021”, but has it really though?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 23 October 2026, 16:20
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Am I shitting bricks abut the FCA and market abuse, a law suit or my portfolio? er...No!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 16:17
RBN
Robinson plc – another “Trading Update” = another profit warning (natch!)
  • By Steve Moore
  • 23 October 2026, 15:07
PRD
Video: Crazy old coot knows why shares in his company tanked, nothing to do with a massively discounted placing of course!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 12:41
DGQ
Delta Gold – that share buying spoofing is really not going well at all, as EK could have told you
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 12:07
GEX
Letter to the FCA – suspend Georgina Energy shares now and launch a full enquiry
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 11:34
GBG
GB Group – half-year trading statement, now a value Buy?
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 23 October 2026, 11:16
CRTA
Letter to Stifel Europe, Nomad to Cirata – do you still have faith in Stephen Kelly? Nobody else does!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 10:35
GEX
EXPLOSIVE GOTCHA!: Georgina Energy has misled market 100% about its drilling permits ahead of 2 fundraises
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 09:55
VLRM
Valereum and the California $32 billon mining claim fraud Part 3, more red flags
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 23 October 2026, 09:35

Thursday »

IKA
Ilika – “Launches ORKA Brand for Marine Applications”, ramptastic?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 22 October 2026, 16:05
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: helping Wishbone gerbils with maths on its cash crisis & the AQSE paradox
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 14:27
Crime-Scene
A Message from Paul Mathieson
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 14:14
FAB
Fusion Antibodies – a “delighted to have secured” contract win, attempted ramptastic?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 22 October 2026, 13:19
VLRM
Chat GPT analyses the Valereum LIES ( 2026 only)
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 12:39
JR-Ewing
Video: ‘Ragingly Tight’ Diesel Markets, Skyrocketing Inflation & The Escalating Iran War
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 12:30
VLRM
BREAKING: Valereum – this is FRAUD Part 2 on the California Bezzle
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 12:21
WSBN
A letter to London’s worst Nomad – re Wishbone gold and the planned rescue placing, is it 10p or lower?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 11:27
ATG
Auction Technology – trading “slightly ahead of current market expectations”, but what’s already discounted in the share price?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 22 October 2026, 10:58
VLRM
BREAKING: Valereum – this is FRAUD Part 1 on the California Bezzle
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 22 October 2026, 10:27

Wednesday »

GELN
Gelion – full-year results, how “strong” ‘a platform to support the group’s next phase’?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 21 October 2026, 16:09
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Evil Banksta gets a Mobico financial kicking, thank heavens for Andrew Monk and his bodged placing
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 21 October 2026, 15:07
VINO
Virgin Wines UK – a full-year swing from more than £1m profit to more than £1m loss… so an argued “another excellent year of progress” (natch!)
  • By Steve Moore
  • 21 October 2026, 14:16
EDGE
BREAKING: Falconedge – statement needed, shares collapsing! Told y'all!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 21 October 2026, 12:24
PBX
ProBiotix Health – Q3 update, a dealing with the “global uncertainty” Buy
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 21 October 2026, 11:17
DOM
Domino’s Pizza – Q3 update, is the emphasised “continued positive trading momentum” ‘tasty’ enough for the valuation?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 21 October 2026, 10:58
WSBN
BREAKING: Wishbone – looking to raise up to £2m at as low as 10p – City source
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 21 October 2026, 10:50
Fake_News
Camilla Tominey at the Telegraph claims BREAKING scoop on Liam Byrne MP -the shameless hussy is TWO YEARS too late!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 21 October 2026, 10:30
KEN
Colin Bird tell me I am wrong: Kendrick Resources has no cash left at all
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 21 October 2026, 09:34
ECOB
Photo : Eco Buildings, perhaps this explains the share spike?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 21 October 2026, 08:25

Tuesday »

TRI
Trifast – “confident in delivering further margin improvement”, but what about in overall profitability?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 20 October 2026, 16:29
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Probiotix and Invinity
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 16:23
G4M
Gear4music – I having last month noted caution on half-year performance, what about now a “Half Year Trading Update”?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 20 October 2026, 14:27
ECOB
Eco Buildings – no I do not have a scooby
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 13:58
TRUE
Truetide – SMTM ( or lack of it)
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 12:47
IES
After Invinity crashes, the truth about its botched placing & who is next: A Vindicated Evil Banksta spells it out
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 12:04
TIN
Cornish Metals: £135 million fund raise at just 60p, am I being suspicious?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 11:23
GEN
Genuit – I having written in May ‘a profit warning ahoy here?’, what about now a nine months trading update?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 20 October 2026, 10:46
BSFA
BSF Enterprise and the patent spoof: an expert writes
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 09:44
Collapsing-Reactor
BREAKING: Alessandro Zamboni’s Nuburu censured by NYSE American SE for late publication of material events, the trap door of delisting gets nearer
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 20 October 2026, 09:20

Monday »

VLX
Volex – “profit expected to be towards the upper end of current market expectations”, but how’s the outlook?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 19 October 2026, 16:19
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: 2 sets of red faces & a zero by Thursday?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 15:44
GELN
Gelion – “Strong Independent U.S. Validation of Gelion's NES”, timely ramptastic?
  • By Steve Moore
  • 19 October 2026, 13:34
DGQ
Artificial Intelligence is not as clever as bear raider Evil Knievil, a self styled natural genius, – Delta Gold
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 12:56
MNTL
Technology Minerals fesses to Recyclus Winding Up Order from HMRC but there’s a bigger issue
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 12:27
IES
GOTCHA Monkey you smug bastard: Invinity bailout at just 10p
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 11:07
BMV
THIS SMELLS: Bluebird Mining and a spoof share buyback, has Sath passed the BVI solvency test?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 10:39
MIND
Mind Gym – “the drive to advance cash receipts in the business model continues to prove successful”. Er, does it?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 19 October 2026, 10:38
Crash
The great impending stockmarket crash of 2026/27 - a podcast with Lucian Miers Part 2
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 08:16
Boom
When Cult Wines goes tits up here’s my prediction, just look at Trustpilot!
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 19 October 2026, 08:15

Sunday »

Crash
The great impending stockmarket crash of 2026/27 - a podcast with Lucian Miers Part 1
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 18 October 2026, 16:54
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the stockmarket crash of 2026 and Syrian questions
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 18 October 2026, 14:21
AET
Afentra shares have plenty of upside potential whilst oil prices remain high - buy
  • By Gary Newman
  • 18 October 2026, 10:28
Gold
The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Is Marooned And I Take A Brief Look At Golden Prospect’s Prospects
  • By Nigel Somerville
  • 18 October 2026, 09:18
Quiz
The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #368
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 18 October 2026, 08:15
Blackboard
Visual Aid: The World’s Most and Least Taxed Countries
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 18 October 2026, 08:15
Reading
Sunday Long Reads: Missing Sheep, Perishing Eels, Karl Bushby’s Walk, Failed Romance, Buying a Filipino Bride
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 18 October 2026, 08:14
Top-10
Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending October 17
  • By Darren Atwater
  • 18 October 2026, 08:13

Saturday »

Bobby-Moore
And the champagne from Lucian will go to……
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 17 October 2026, 14:51
FVA
An “ahead of expectations” and further growth potential Buy
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 17 October 2026, 12:09
Newsboy
How low can one fall after working at Technology Minerals: a chance to hook up with the Playboy bird via the Aussie sinner?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 17 October 2026, 11:58
MEX
Tortilla Mexican Grill – discounted placing, states including “to accelerate value creation plan” but how much so really?…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 17 October 2026, 08:00

Friday »

PR1
Pri0rity Intelligence – this statement cannot be true, is the FCA talking about you?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 15:49
Roulette
Pathos Communications – shares ‘only’ just over 23% down since December 2025 listing… so “Best Newcomer at the AIM Awards” (natch!)…
  • By Steve Moore
  • 16 October 2026, 15:30
Bearcast
Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Why Amaroq will tell me to Foxtrot Oscar
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 15:22
Clown_Funeral
The FCA admits that it is utterly useless: Evil Banksta is left almost speechless as am I
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 13:59
Bear
Video: Fuel Rationing, ‘Hard To Go Wrong’ With Gold Miners & Platinum To Outperform
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 12:24
BMV
Bluebird Mining: Disgraced CEO Sath’s Skylake vehicle dumping shares what can it mean?
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 11:46
Confetti
Nuburu finally buys Tekne but reveals more massive dilution of its shareholders ( quelle surprise!)
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 11:06
AMRQ
Letter to Eldur Olaffson – time to sack Charles Archer and cleanse the Amaroq stable
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 10:54
THX
Thor Explorations – “Q3 2026 Operating Update”, a further cashed-up Buy
  • By HotStockRockets
  • 16 October 2026, 09:02
Collapsing-Reactor
The Morning after the AIM awards dinner – more bad data from the Casino emerges
  • By Tom Winnifrith
  • 16 October 2026, 08:58