UK 10:41 Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
There were a bevy of cracking entries in the Motive TV (MTV) in Administration Caption Contest from yesterday and you can see them all HERE. But unlike investing on AIM where everyone's a loser in our contest there is an actual winner. In fact two joint winners. We asked for your captions for the photo below. And the winners are:
Already a member? Sign in
• All premium articles
• Tom Winnifrith’s Bearcast
• Access to all the entire nearly 13 year archive
• ShareProphets Daily Newsletter
Cancel any time
This area of the ShareProphets.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ShareProphets.com. ShareProphets.com does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ShareProphets.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ShareProphets.com and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.
Comments
Duck and Dive
Five paras for a caption? These are essays, not captions, and are therefore ineligible. Get a grip.
Drunken Sailor
There is no definitive answer to the problem so I can’t be totally wrong this time, so here goes.
As no ordinary BBM can buy more shares in any of those companies, they would have to be “sophisticated investors” or High Net Worth Individuals. So that cuts down the pool of Worthington shareholders quite a lot.
So called Sophisticated Investors and HNWIs can be just as stupid as BBMs, there must have been some caught when Worthington suspended. However they are more likely to have learned at least something from that mistake than the morons who still think WRN is going to come back on a market somewhere and be worth £20 a share.
A lot depends on which bag was chosen. No SI / HNWI, no matter how stupid, would try to buy shares in MTV in administration, thus if we accept the original hypothesis that ordinary BBMs can’t buy, the answer for Bag A is 0% but this is 0/0 and could therefore be anything..
Bag B there are some SI / HNWI who are short of DAN and do want to buy shares nice a cheaply to close their short rather than having to wait until they go into administration and the shares are officially declared worthless. But the chances of them being WRN shareholders are very very slim, so ignore that group. However there is the group who got caught out by WRN who have not learned their lesson that might buy into the DAN success story, now it is saving so much through not being listed. I hypothesise that they would be equally stupid as other totally stupid SI / HNWI who had not been caught by WRN (possibly more by luck than judgement) so that would imply a 50/50 split, but it does depend on what proportion of the stupid SI / HNWI population got caught by WRN I am going to guess that there are twice as many stupid SI/HNWIs that think they are clever because they did not get caught by WRN so I am going for a 33% probability.
The same argument could apply to bag C ie equally stupid but a smaller proportion of the overall population of stupid SI / HNWIs – it must be a reasonably big population as RT did manage to con a load of them into buying at £10 not so long ago. However to join the Ponzi now is quite big bucks and if you are trapped in WRN, that might be more off putting to that section of the stupid SI / HNWI population, so I am going for only 25%.
Andrew Monk can keep his bloody marbles.
Simple Moving Avarice
D&D: it’s a parody of their most recent pair of RNS announcements.
I’m trying to solve Tom’s new problem but I think I need a delta-hedge on SER and NEW to account for the entropy of the probability distribution of bag bankruptcy coefficient.