UK 18:39 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Yesterday I pointed out how David Lenigas and others were ramping Horse Hill like mad to get rescue placings away for companies such as Solo which are at death's door. The ramp continues today with new flow data. But in a private email to clients a leading broker explains just why the Leni-maths does not stack up at all.
Already a member? Sign in
• All premium articles
• Tom Winnifrith’s Bearcast
• Access to all the entire nearly 13 year archive
• ShareProphets Daily Newsletter
Cancel any time
This area of the ShareProphets.com site is for independent financial commentary. These blogs are provided by independent authors via a common carrier platform and do not represent the opinions of ShareProphets.com. ShareProphets.com does not monitor, approve, endorse or exert editorial control over these articles and does not therefore accept responsibility for or make any warranties in connection with or recommend that you or any third party rely on such information. The information available at ShareProphets.com is for your general information and use and is not intended to address your particular requirements. In particular, the information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by ShareProphets.com and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions.
Comments
dave
i thought ukog owned 30% of HH..
Tom Winnifrith
It owns 30% of HHDev which owns 65% of asset so 20% of field
Josh
Tom
I and other readers i assume wonder why you have not got a position in UKOG.
If you are sure of what you think why haven’t you or those around you shorted as it has gone up 60% since you said sell it.
I am not knocking you . I know you like things to make sense so must understand.
Tom Winnifrith
Josh
You are a cowardly wanker for not using your real name and presumptious in assuming you speak for other readers. I suspect you dont and are just a sniping shot for brains UKOG investor.
You want us to hold postions in every stock we follow on the basis of what we say? For starters that is impossible as many of the bear calls are unshortable – we are just warning folks to get out and b) we write about hundreds of stocks.
We are journalists so are paid – earn a living – writing. What is so hard for a fucktard like you to understand about that?
T
PS and we are paid by a publication that despite the best attempts of David Lenigas and folks like you who suck his cock on a daily basis, is solvent & profitable.
PPS If you dont like my language, the tone of my response, fuck off and stop reading this site – see if I care
wildrides
Surely it depends how many wells they drill in the field as to the overall BOPD . The share price has dropped alot already anyways and explorers always discount the future a fair bit . The Chairman aint gonna want to frighten the shite out of the locals by saying a tanker will arrive every two minutes . Tenuous at best .
Naah ………. UKOG are over egging and your swinging low punchs and looking all the more sour grapes for it .
Scores on the Doors :-
Whinni 2 …… 2 UKOG etc.
Scotty
If a leading broker wrote that piece he should be fired IMO. I think most people with half a brain (ok maybe that does not apply to the LSE massive as I am assuming the half brain would be used) would know its a poor valuation methodology :)
Josh
Tom
was there any need for all that rubbish.
If you had just said this share is unshortable that would make sense.
The truth is i had never heard of David lenigas until i started reading your comments.
It is possible hes a mate of yours.
J
ps You do own some shares none have done as well as this check last weeks posts.
J
Tom Winnifrith
Josh
You deranged poltroon – I can say what I want and after 48 hours without a cigarette I am not minded to hold back. Your PS makes no sense at all. Yes the company does own some shares in some companies ( I think about 6 or 7 stocks in the portfolio) but we never go short and we clearly can own hundreds. Have any of out shares done as well as UKOG which is still way off its highs from the last HH ramp. Yes. Opti for starters.
Scotty
As an ex oil analyst I see no harm in the method used. What method would you use? Pie in the sky * whatever?
josh
Tom.
Of course you can say whatever you like we live in the best country in the world .
But in doing so we can concluded you are not all there.
That being the kindest conclusion.
J
Tom Winnifrith
Josh
Yes I can post what I want and do so in my own name.
You being a cowardly little tosser insult me without using your own name.
I publish your comments anyway as I believe in free speech.
Once again you use the royal we. For whom else do you speak you patronising dickhead?
T
Andy
Tom, if as is suspected the whole Weald basin is contiguous with the IOW and Wytch Farm there is a possibility that a major part of the south of England could be oil bearing at various levels. I get your issues with DL, and some of the hypes of the past, but you have to say this one looks as though there could be some serious volumes of oil to be had. Your maths above assumes one producing well, I put it to you that there will be multiple producing wells and that if the volumes indicated by Nutech and Schlumberger are anything near correct then this could be big. Early drilling in the North Sea gave marginal results, the rest as we know is history. It might be an idea to keep the powder dry whilst this one unfolds. ??
Tom Winnifrith
Andy
Extrapolation or Leni-Maths is a dangerous thing, the SP already discounts vast amounts of extrapolation, the Leni-multiplier
T
Russ O'Callaghan
Andy, Josh, I’m not the greatest admirer of Tom’s language; it might just be jealousy on my part since it’s way more colourful than my own on the written page, and that’s hard for me to take! But, the strong reservations that he has about this venture are real and calculable.
I’ve no doubt that this area is oil-bearing. No doubt at all, but we have to remember that this is the UK; England to be more accurate. The SOUTH-EAST of England to be bang on the money. Just look at the reception that fracking has got even though it’s largely in areas plagued by under-employment and without a large proportion of the super-rich living on top of the proposed well-heads. If you buy into Horse Hill right now then the expression “long-term investment” is likely to mean “lifetime investment”. Wherever a proposed well-head site is identified there will be nimby opposition on a scale that is beyond a fracker’s nightmare.
As far as I know there are no billionaires living in the North Sea at the moment and even that isn’t being seriously considered for new exploration at the moment. The latest off-shore drillings are way out WEST of Shetland.
I’m leaning towards Tom’s take on this: that the money to be made out of this venture is not in the future sale of oil but in the future sale of shares, ie. a piece of the action.
There must be loads more ventures out there that will not tie your cash up for anything like the timescale that Horse Hill will.
Short-term rise and then out? OK, possibly. Long-term tie-in? No way.
Drunken Sailor
Russ,
Spot on! The vision of turning the whole stockbroker belt into another Ghawar is absurd. The reason why the middle east has produced so much oil is not just because there is a lot there, but also because most of it is worthless dessert on the surface.
As Tom has said in numerous bearcasts there will be a few nodding donkeys dotted around in places that do not offend the eye too much. Ultimately they will generate cash to pay PLC costs etc and maybe a little bit left over for shareholders, but in the meantime the capital expenditure and cash burn on operating and admin cost will continue, as will the placings. It is great if you can hold off on a placing until there is news to help ramp the shares, but ultimately the constant confetti issue will dilute current shareholders to such a massive extent as to make them virtually worthless. Trading the ramps is the way to make money, but as time goes on the effects of each ramp will get less and less due to the number of shares already in issue and more and more people wising up.
Drunken Sailor
A few interesting, but largely irrelevant figures.
At current flow rate of 456 BOPD the “Gatwick Gusher” is flowing oil at about 50 Litres a minute; a standard petrol pump puts petrol in your car at 38 Litres per minute.
At current oil prices the gross revenue, before transportation costs, attributable to UKOG is about £2,100 per day or £780k per year. UKOG Annual Admin costs (based on annualising last interims) approx. £1m. UKOG current Market cap £45M.
These figures are largely irrelevant as it is the future that matters not current. However the future needs to deliver a hell of a lot more than current to justify the current market cap.
Josh
Tom.
we agree on free speech but you seem so childish with the tosser remarks.
Next thing you will have readers believe you have never had a wank .
You might fell better if you have another.
J
Tom Winnifrith
Josh
You illiterate tool – what point are you trying to make? You posting abuse of me here does not prove that you believe in free speech – it just shows that you are a tool.
Me publishing your abuse shows I really do believe in free speech .
T
REDBARON
Andy has provided a very salient point. A field of this size would require many wells. The broker’s figures are based on a very simplistic model for just one well but following in the same vein, use a (very) conservative model of 10 wells then do the maths. I have 30 years oilfield experience so feel qualified to comment.
josh
Tom
You say you are a journalist and i am posting abuse to you try reading your post to me , you are not doing yourself any good .
You must be trying to look stupid .
J
THE CORNISHMAN
Josh
You don’t have to be long or short of a share before you can express an opinion on a company’s prospects.
If you don’t happen to agree with someone make you can make your case and then see what happens over time.
judith w
Well well well Mr,whinyfroth you seem mighty jealous of Mr.Lenigas.
Is that because he owns his own home and is richer than you could ever be?
Maybe if Rivington would have been more successful then you could have shared a glass with him?
Dont let your envy eat you up.
I know that you wont post this as you always censor my superior views.
phil
Shareholders have got into the Horsehill development far too early, and made it just to easy for the companies in it to get their hands on your money.
There is not a single shred of evidence that any company in the Horsehill can create a contributory valued balance sheet that will bring a single penny of contributory profits for the benefits of shareholders for the long term.
In the meantime the key players in the companies involved have made themselves a lot of money, The PR flunkies, Advisors, Nomads, Brokers , in fact anyone involved other than shareholders have made themselves a fortune. and a significant number of shareholders are already under water and busy playing catchup.
It maybe that Horsehill does have an investment case but shareholders need to make the companies involved work a lot harder to get your money, and above all establish a more focused dialogue with hard proved metrics and facts rather then just the gobshite coming from lenigas.
In the case of the moron dickhead josh, he is irrelevant, lenigas will get the monies out of his pockets soon enough
judith w
see.
censored again
Andy
Regarding the wells being positioned in the South of England in the commuter belt.. Wytch farm is just a stones through from Sandbanks which is regarded to have the highest land value in the whole of the UK including London, they have been happily extracting oil from their for 30 years without even a mention from the nimbi’s or the public at large. Interestingly the oil from Wytch Farm is piped to Fawley some 40 miles away for refining so at some point the pipeline must have been installed again without any objections.