UK 19:05 Friday, 23 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Red warning flags have been billowing over 88 Energy (88E) ever since it changed its name from Tangiers Petroleum (TPET). Tangiers was an unmitigated disaster for shareholders, but it seems that a simple name and ticker symbol change is all that is needed to induce an acute case of market amnesia. Having bet the farm and lost in Morocco, it is incredible that managing director David Wall survived. A little over a year later and he is now running one of the most heavily promoted oil exploration campaigns on AIM. People never learn, but this morning’s announcement from Tangiers, sorry I mean 88 Energy, fired a warning shot across the bow of anyone planning to hold this stock as a buy and hold.
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Comments
wildrides
Your right ……..its a big risk , and I am out now for that reason . My initial interest was in the conventional plays on the way down to the shale beds . Now there are non ………. exit stage left . The point you hinted at in the piece ………… There will be a horse hill type spurt at TD ( which I may play on RNS day ) and they WILL find something, do a placing and then announce three months later that its the wrong type of oily water shale or watery shale oil .
Take care out there folks .
P/s Niece piece Ben .
P/s2 OPEC wont break US output at all ( which is running dead level ) They will just bankrupt loan heavy producers and transfer the assets to producers with no debt to service. People underestimate the size of the US 50 state ouput that is now massive and came “out of the sun” from nowhere a couple of years ago . OPEC is gonna get spanked sooner or later ……… be it two years or ten years down the track .
Striebs
Ben ,
The rehabilitation of Mr Wall has been amazing both here and in Australia . A real zero to hero story for the time being .
Well done for flagging it up .
The somewhat more conservative Otto Energy guys also have an option to farm in to adjacent acreage in stages .
The drilling up North never seems that easy and where there is permafrost measures have to be taken to protect it like it is on the endangered species list .
The Saudi Oil minister denied that any particular producer was the target of their campaign to flood the world with cheap oil .
Whilst the effects of over investment caused due to letting oil prices stay too high for too long became quickly visible in the U.S. , it is not clear what effect over investment has had elsewhere .
Steve
I’m currently holding here, mainly because I see there is a chance of a Horse Hill style ramperoony and the chance to make a quick buck but clearly it is high and I don’t intend on being a long term holder other than possibly some free ride if it happens. However I do feel the above is a bit harsh and I think the people involved and the prospect are far better than UKOG. Geology looks good, infrastructure looks good and importantly Alaska is only state that can export crude.
To be fair to Dave Wall he only joined Tangiers in April 2014 when the wheels in motion for Morocco were already well in motion and realistically far too late to change course.
The path for development has been laid out – the rebate means that $30-40millions worth of first drill and seismics can be be funded with around $10million commitment upfront from 88e, which they should have, with the rest funded by the BoA facility and then the hope is the results of both allow further development to be funded by farmout although of course further fund-raising is likely at some point.
Eyeguy
Well Mr Turney. IMO a shoddy piece of journalism if I ever saw one. I hold 88e but have derisked and made good money so far. But you are missing the point. The odds of finding commercial oil isn’t dependent on what they didn’t find in Morocco. Surely you should know that. That’s science for 8 year olds. The placing was done as we know, otherwise an aim tiddler like 88e would not have the funds for it.
The prive of oil now also isn’t important. Why? Because next stage will be a farm in, like Otto have done next door at great bear. And that’s whether the oil is commercial or not.
Come on Ben. You can do better than that.
Steve Brown
Ben, The North Slope of Alaska is a very oily place, I remember doing petrophysical analysis of the Ugnu and West Sak formations overlying the Kuparuk field and the oil in place was well into the billions. I even helped my boss analyse the logs on the ill-fated Mukluk well, which did actually flow 300 bbls/day from a little radioactive sand we had spotted.
That oil all came from somewhere, so I am quite sure they will find a high oil content in the shale and there will be all sorts of promise, but the long run problem is that the Slope is a bloody expensive place to operate. A lot more expensive than the Lower 48.
If the shale oil producers in Texas are losing money, then anyone trying that game in Alaska is done for. Long term this might well get produced but not until the oil price is in three figures again.
Eyeguy
Think we are jumping the gun regarding oil prices. The facts are on the north slope, that there are companies willing to pay higher fees to farm in based on the results. And that’s what is going to increase the sp if/when 88e can sell their acreage at a premium to what was paid. That’s what great a bear have done next door, and presumably that’s what 88e wish to do too.
Ben Turney
@wildrides – you and Winnifrith are as bad as each other. Rant and rave when others play the AIM sentiment game but when it comes to putting cash into POSs like this, LGO Energy or whatever that garbage Tom bought the other day “because it was at a 50% discount” then it is all OK…. “Bought this because of conventional potential on way down” my backside!
Re. OPEC, we’ll see
@Striebs – I’m not flagging up his rehabilitation. This has all the hallmarks of just another run of the mill Aussie paper pushing operation
@Steve – Yes Wall joined in April 2014, but he also handled the role appallingly with scant regard for existing shareholders. Be warned, he will dilute you in a heartbeat.
As for holding for a Horse Hill ramp, I can’t argue with that logic other than to say I don’t plan to buy because I cannot believe people will be that stupid to believe it. Perhaps that is my mistake.
@Eyeguy – When exactly did you make good money on this stock? Looking at the share price chart only placement participants have done that. Also are you seriously suggest there will be a farm in irrespective of whether the oil is commercial or not?!!!
@Steve – thank you. Interesting comment. Confirms my gut reaction. I am sure they will find oil, but strongly doubt it will be commercial. Perhaps in time, but in the interim shareholders will have lots of dilution to look forward to.
Eyeguy
Ben:
Yep. I bought quite a few in the 0.5’a and offloaded in the 0.7’s but I digress.
I think you are contradicted yourself with the reply to me, and Steve afterwards. If they find a lot of oil they IMO will likely get a farm in partner. Just to clarify the term commercial. Current costs to produce on the north slope will likely be more than the current oil price. So yes, in this regard you could say that any find is not “commercial”
But if they find “commercial quantities” as is their target, they will still likely be either a takeover target or at least get a farm in partner like Otto have done with great bear.
IE a strategic partner is taking a position and paying acreage at a premium so when prices pick up they will be in a good position.
Otherwise , why have Otto farmed in to great bear?
wildrides
Ben …………… that was the plan………. if you dont believe me then ? ie 88E sold it as mutiple plays and news potential . I bought in intending to bail just before TD for the chance they might hit stronger conventional oil shows on the way down and that would lift sentiment and the sp before the inevitable 3 month wait for shale lab tests blah blah .
Hugs & Kisses
WR
Eyeguy
Wild rides:
The RNS released was the weekly drilling report and that’s it. It comes pretty much on the hour on the same day of the week.
There is still a conventional play at stake.
I don’t see any bad news so far apart from the slightly delay- but now caught up.
If there is a conventional play will hear this week IMO.
Ben Turney
Come on Wildrides – we both know full well even if 88E found conventional (commercial!) oil in its secondary targets the chances of that ever delivering a fundamental return for shareholders would have been next to zero. People would have bought the stock, believing the hype, you would have sold at a nice profit.
Your plan to sell before TD is exactly the same as my ADSS plan to sell by November 30th. Like it or not you are gambling on the sentiment game, exactly the same as I am
I’m not condemning this. If you can make money out of this then fair play, but let’s drop the pretence.
In terms of this one I am reconsidering my position on it. Read around it a bit more today and if the company does deliver a large resource find, people will buy it and a >£20million market cap is quite feasible, no matter whether or not there is the slightest chance of a single barrel of oil ever being produced commercially.
@Eyeguy – The Great Bear comparison is all part of the promotional pump. Not sure how long you’ve been following this, but I strong recommend you read the TPET RNSs and the TPET coverage on this site, not least after that legendary “report” the company released the RNS about about 18 months ago.
Sure, searching for oil in Morocco has no bearing on searching for oil in Alaska. However a stock promotion of oil exploration in Morocco has a direct relationship with a stock promotion of oil exploration in Alaska (run by the same people!)
Beware “serial entrepreneurs” in this sector, especially the Aussies!
Eyeguy
Ben-
Your previous post highlights the points I am making. Some of the well read “experts” expect a large discovery but decide not to buy the stock as it won’t be “commercial”
For me that is incredibly naive. As are the comments about Tpet before. This will be a results game. Nothing more. Mathematically they have a strong chance of hitting something. The geology also works in 88’s favour. IE the conventional prize which is secondary anyway would be hit first. If they hit great- string re rate. If they don’t then that’s not what they are aiming for anyway.
The Tpet history at this point is largely irrelevant IMO. It’s purely a results game on the first drill, and again to stress that apart from having a say in the location of the drill site, the management has no influence on the likelihood of hitting oil. Yes, moving forward over the months and years strong management will be key. But not now.
I expect oil to be hit. I expect the sp to rise. I expect to make money. I am not predicting at this stage the likelihood of 88e selling any oil. But to stress again, look at the Otto website (not 88’s)
They’ve paid a premium on the acreage to great bear. If 88 hit oil the sp will go up IMO. If they sell a stake to farm in, it will likely bring cash in and make the sp go up.
I’m not sure how the oil price now is particularly relevant to anything – especially at this mcap. They have the funding already for what is needed for now.
wildrides
Ben ……….. I am baffled as to what point you are making? …………. I am a trader ………. not a long investor . But……….there has to be a fundamental driver behind the sentiment before I will trade . MTV goes up on occasion but I would never trade it . I was interested on the likely effect of hitting an oil res on the way down to where the shale is . I was not interested in the shale play . The shale play at TD gave me a safe exit . I dont want money tied up for thee months waiting for a lab report to prove a lie about the quality of the oily shale ……… ta very much ….. end off .
Ben Turney
Wildrides – the point is simple. There is no such thing as a fundamental driver in any of these stocks, only the pretence of fundamental drivers. You buy these stocks hoping that someone else will buy into the “blue sky” potential at a premium to what you paid for it.
Even if 88E had found commercial conventional oil, so what? The chance of that ever translating into a fundamental return for shareholders (e.g. dividend, takeover, buyback, whatever) is next to zero.
Who cares whether or not LGO is producing 900 barrels a day? It might as well produce 9,000 for all the likelihood there is of shareholders ever seeing a return on that, beyond being able to shift their worthless paper onto some other unsuspecting gullible fools.
I am making these points because you’ve commented on a number of my pieces recently saying “what shite this is, what shite that is”.
The thing is, I agree with you. They are all shite. ADSS, RRR, 88E, LGO, the lot of them
However, what you’ve just described as your rationale for buying into 88E is exactly the same rationale I applied to ADSS (or might have applied to RRR if I believed others would believe Andrew Bell).
This game has nothing to do with fundamental drivers. It is all about other people believing in what they perceive to be fundamental drivers.
The sad fact is this market makes fences of us all.
@Eyeguy, Whatever... if 88E finds oil the SP will go up.
Eyeguy
Wildrides-
I can’t understand why you have sold your 88e. The RNS released was a weekly report and that’s it. There is still a conventional play – in play as it were.
Full results will be 3 months, but I’m sure you know as well as I do that any sniff of conventional or unconventional could see you double your money.
Your justification for selling out IMO isn’t correct. You should have waited until next week to make that decision IMO.
Gary Newman
Wildrides,
I also generally won’t touch anything where i don’t like the fundamentals, even for a trade – but at times I do think I’m missing out as often you can see what is going to get pushed hard on a load of hype! Then again I’m not a fan of the tiny, illiquid AIM ones anyway a lot of the time!
I’m still holding my shares here as like others would expect a Horse Hill style of interest if they do strike it big and the chance for a good rise on a flow of news, but it really is only punt money. It is the first exploration drill that I’ve risked money in for some time as usually the rewards just aren’t worth the risk (RMP etc being good examples).
These I also generally do much better trading the swings on larger FTSE oil and mining companies – both up and down – than I do chasing rainbows on AIM anyway. In the most part AIM for me is for a bit of excitement risking amounts where I can bank a nice profit if i get it right, but am not going to lose fortunes when it goes wrong (which on AIM these days increasingly seems to be the case!).
I can’t believe the amounts that some are prepared to risk on these AIM minnows – and for every one that makes a fortune there will be scores of others who lost all their savings by going ‘all-in’!
Ben Turney
Gary, you make an excellent point there. Some of things I’ve seen this summer, with how much people are prepared to risk on a single stock is quite incredible
Eyeguy
I think it’s hard on aim in general to put any realistic value on these companies that don’t make any cash. Bar 88e, don’t get involved any more with the ones that likely won’t make any cash.
As you say Ben, you are betting on what other people are likely going to do and that is obviously what carries most risk.
The only aim stock in happy to chuck money into currently is premier African minerals based on how much cash they should make with their RHA mine (when prices pick up) and also their share of circum minerals amongst other things.
Gary Newman
Ben,
It makes me cringe when people say that they are ‘all in’ on some AIM minnow which is entirely based on hype – often the mining or oil ones where the company is years from getting anything out of the ground, if ever in many cases! Too many cling onto in-the-ground valuations without assessing the likelihood (not to mention viability) of anything ever being produced.
You could argue that applies to 88E – hence the main reason why I am in (and suspect this applies to many others) is for anticipated news flow. I’m under no illusions as to production – even if they did have a big find and secured some sort of JV or farm in.
I think a lot of the risks people take comes down to something I’ve mentioned before – the fact that they aren’t handing over that money physically. If they handed £20k of their life savings over in £50 notes rather than just clicking a button on the computer, it might make them think more about what that money means to them. I’m pretty sure most of them wouldn’t stick it on ‘red’ at a casino, but in many chances they’d have a better chance by doing so (they’d just lose the lot more quickly and less painfully if they got it wrong!).
Ben Turney
@Eyeguy – Come on, you can’t be serious. If you’ve picked this as a company that might make dividend payments or other fundamental returns to investors I think you’ve made a bit of a mistake. Honestly you need to go back and read the TPET RNSs and the coverage on this site:
http://www.shareprophets.com/EPIC?epic=tpet
Especially this little episode http://www.shareprophets.com/views/5575/exposed-professional-ramping-services-ref-tangiers-petroleum
@Gary – I had dinner an AIM investor the other night and we made exactly that point. There is something about buying these stocks through an online brokerage account which seems to make people switch off their brains about how much they are actually spending.
In terms of your play on this one, anticipating news flow, fair enough. That is exactly the same as my ADSS trade. Where we disagree is on how the market might react. Got to admit though I am wondering whether there will be the appetite out there for another Horse Hill style mania. Logically I cannot believe there will be, but when does logic ever apply to this market?
Eyeguy
Ben.
Thanks for your reply and the links.
My intention certainly is not holding this longterm and as I said, bar 88e I am buying up stocks either which are cash generative or likely will be cash generative. 88e is the exception to this rule for now, as I think there is a high chance short term of this share making me good money. I’ve already derisked in the mid 0.7’s so I’m happy.
My biggest holding which I’m adding to is premier African minerals so the majority of my recent trading profits have gone in there.
In the resource sector there are bargains out there, and the ones that are already producing now which can tick over at low prices will be the ones to benefit most when prices pick up.
Obviously the above doesn’t apply to 88e but as I said, I hold this as an exception.