UK 03:20 Wednesday, 23 September 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: Financial Investigative Media Limited, which is not owned by Tom Winnifrith but by a trust for his dependants, owns shares in companies mentioned in this article. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
How can I think straight when Corrie live is on tonight? Anyhow, I continue my debate with Paul Scott on Boohoo.com (BOO). He thinks I'm wrong HERE but I suggest a few points he may wish to consider. Then Lucian Miers flags up the curse of Welsh folks called Williams involved with PLCs - David at Avanti Communications (AVN), Jim and Tony at Arian Silver (AGQ) but is David at Tungsten (TUNG) a sheep shagger? And what about Chris Oil? We need to know. I discuss Arian in its own merits plus Europa Oil & Gas (EOG), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN) and in detail Premaitha (NIPT).
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Comments
Czech Mate (aka Janos)
Paul has done a lot of shorting of Asos and for all I know is still short it. Buying Boohoo with an Asos short on the side has a very different risk profile compared to buying it outright – people should be thinking about his arguments in the light of his aggregate portolio positioning.
Patent Bob
Premaitha… Just for information. I am no expert on such matters or interpretation of the following.
https://www.illumina.com/company/news-center/press-releases/press-release-details.html?newsid=2025749
“The patents asserted are European Patent (UK) 0 994 963 B2 and European Patent (UK) 1 981 995 B1, which are exclusively licensed to Illumina from Sequenom, Inc. and The Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University, respectively. Stanford is joined in the suit as a necessary party because it is the registered owner of the European Patent (UK) 1 981 995 B1.”
A B1 designation indicates that these are ‘granted’ patents and in force.
http://ipfrontline.com/2015/05/premaitha-files-robust-defence-with-uks-high-court-in-response-to-alleged-infringement-of-nipt-patents/
“Premaitha Health announces that it has filed a robust defence and counterclaim in the High Court of Justice, Chancery Division, Patents Court in the United Kingdom in connection with the patent infringement suit filed on 16 March 2015 by Illumina, Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiary Verinata Health Inc. The patents in question are European Patent (UK) 0 994 963 B2 and European Patent (UK) 1 981 995 B1.”
The company of interest here is Verinata Health Inc.
It would appear the Premaitha patent application, note it is an application.. it has not been granted, is this one,
http://ep.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?DB=ep.espacenet.com&II=0&ND=3&adjacent=true&locale=en_EP&FT=D&date=20150708&CC=EP&NR=2890813A1&KC=A1
Original Document,
http://ep.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/originalDocument?CC=EP&NR=2890813A1&KC=A1&FT=D&ND=3&date=20150708&DB=ep.espacenet.com&locale=en_EP
Copy, You may/will have to go via a captcha from the previous link
http://worldwide.espacenet.com/espacenetDocument.pdf?DOC=deb45b02a950f7b0671fda914b05c07c3800b85f2fd6&flavour=trueFull&response=209484&FT=E&CC=EP&NR=2890813&KC=A1
The search report begins on Page 36), Page 1) of the search report is..
http://i.imgur.com/liK4vX7.png
All 31 claims have been rejected, X, as a result of prior art in Application GB 2 485 635 A filed by Verinata Health Inc US. Other documents are referenced as reasons to reject the claims
From the European Register,
https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP13759286&tab=main
Patent family,
https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP13759286&lng=en&tab=family
All referenced as being A A* documents which is indicative of them being at the application stage meaning they have not moved forward to grant.
Documents,
https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP13759286&lng=en&tab=doclist
17.03.2015 Copy of the international preliminary report on patentability
https://register.epo.org/application?documentId=EXAW2BAH0205FI4&appnumber=EP13759286&showPdfPage=all
Which once again makes use of the Verinata Health Inc US application and other literature to disallow all claims on the basis that they are not novel and lack an inventive step.
Not my intention to cast doubt but the additional information may be of use.
MrMoto
Fancy some vastly overpriced stocks and the odd fraud?
George will make it happen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34322446
Patent Bob
https://twitter.com/TomWinnifrith/status/646323783066910724
“Sensible comment on Premaitha (#NIPT) after company chats today. stance BUY HERE”
8 minutes 37 into your Bearcast you start talking about Premaitha and mention having a chat with two Company bods..
Whilst, as previously mentioned, I am not qualified my ‘take’ is that Illumina are attacking on the basis of Verinata prior art, presumably taken through to grant and based on an assumption that Premaitha IONA is based upon the claims as filed in the aforementioned patent applications having been rejected by use of Verinata prior art.
Premaitha have said they have filed a ‘robust challenge’… However this has not resulted in the case against them being dismissed. Bear in mind they are apparently stuffed on 31 our of 31 claims by Verinata prior art. They can either respond to the examiners report with modified claims based on the original description/drawings/abstract without adding additional material.
Or..
Returning to,
https://register.epo.org/application?number=EP13759286&lng=en&tab=doclist
https://register.epo.org/application?showPdfPage=1&documentId=EXA5UD7I8222FI4&appnumber=EP13759286
Perhaps file a new divisional application possibly claiming priority from certain aspects of the original[s] that may, or may not protect their IONA product from the present attack by Illumina.
As far as I am aware applications and divisional applications are ‘protected’ in as much as the materials filed are not published, made ‘public’ for one year from the date of filing and as such the ‘new’ application will not be available outside of of a ‘robust challenge’, assuming that is the nature of the challenge, to the relevant courts and is unlikely to be released to Illumina.
Of course the above is my usual GuessBlither..
https://twitter.com/TomWinnifrith/status/646323783066910724
“Sensible comment on Premaitha (#NIPT) after company chats today. stance BUY HERE”
8 minutes 37 into your Bearcast you start talking about Premaitha and mention having a chat with two Company bods..
Perhaps your Company contacts might be able to clarify… And yes, whilst you might dump your ton of bricks upon me, I am suggesting you, whilst not being made an insider, might know more than you should do.
Paul Scott
Hi Tom,
You makes some valid points today.
Broker forecasts – I completely agree that one should never take them at face value, and just assume the company will meet forecasts. However, you can & should stress-check broker forecasts. So in the case of BOO for example, I’ve got hold of the Peel Hunt & Investec forecasts, checked all the workings, and made sure I am happy with them, and that the outlook comments from the company confirm that they are on track to meet broker expectations.
Peel Hunt in particular have already indicated in a recent note that they are looking to INCREASE their forecasts for H2 this year. So the backdrop is positive. It’s only when I’ve thoroughly tested broker forecasts, that I would rely on them, as in this case.
Also remember that BOO warned on profits in Jan 2015, therefore you tend to find brokers are cautious after a profit warning, as the company won’t want to miss forecasts a second time.
Anyway, let’s see what the company says about the outlook with its interim results next week (due out 29 Sept). But by my calculations, both the 2/16 and 2/17 broker estimates are realistic, and achievable, so it’s fine to value the company on these forecasts, given that the company is demonstrating strong organic growth.
Free Cashflow – I agree that mature businesses need to show strong free cashflow. However, this is not a mature buisness, it is a rapidly growing business, so being able to self-fund all its own capex, and still have free cashflow left over, is very impressive actually. Organic growth at the top line is fantastic, something like 25%+, at good margins. Therefore the stock SHOULD be on a racy PER. But the amazing thing is, that it’s NOT on a racy PER, looking at fairly conservative broker forecasts. So I reiterate the point that you’re totally wrong here about valuation – bizarrely you’re picked the only good value internet retail stock to short, and ignored the ones that are vastly more expensively rated!
Over-rated competition – I accept your point on this, and totally agree with you. Just because OCDO and Asos are over-priced, doesn’t mean BOO is cheap in comparison, if it’s still over-priced. Thing is though, it’s not only cheap in comparison, it’s also cheap on a standalone basis – on PEG, or fwd PER bases. I don’t really understand your blindspot on this, but hopefully the fog will clear when you see the interims & the strong growth that should be announced.
Don’t forget the 4.8p per share of net cash – it’s material to the valuation, as that’s almost a sixth of the market cap.
I think we are getting to the tail end of the negative sentiment towards this stock following the profit warning in Jan 2015 – where no doubt about it, the company greatly damaged its reputation. There’s nothing I hate more than a newly listed company warning on profit in its first year – it’s really bad, and should never happen. However, that negative sentiment is easing away now, and hopefully solid numbers next week should reassure the market that it’s a proper growth company again, and not a basket case.
I accept that it takes time for the market to forgive after a profit warning, often it needs about a year for the shares to get back on track.
I’m enjoying the vigorous bull:bear debate on this, but so far you’ve really not undermined the bull case even slightly. There are no red flags in the accounts, and really the only issue we disagree on is valuation, which is a matter of opinion ultimately, and that you think the gross margins will erode, which I think is probably not the case, or not enough to make much difference to profit anyway. Also, you think more competition will erode BOO’s profits, whereas I think BOO has a strong enough lead, to enable it to out-spend new entrants on marketing, hence stay ahead.
Also, the other interesting point that you’ve not touched on, is BOO’s ability to expand in other countries, which makes it an altogether much more exciting story. Sales in France, USA, and Australia are already looking promising.
wildrides
Ha ………..very good ………I enjoyed the cast ! Yes, my analysis is poor compared to yours and your fellow writers . Thats why I read your site so avidly and Scotties too . Although I like yours best, because it make me laugh out loud most days . Like most short term traders , I am too lazy to do the in depth detail stuff your so good at . A quick read of the RNS releases at 7AM and intuitive gut feeling combined , then in I go where angels fear to tread . This may result in a quick exit later in the day when you and Scottie have pulled the RNS apart in detail , but thats life , and with trading short term you have to be in it to win it !
Patent Bob :- errr ……… run that past me again would you ? Are Prem gonna win the case or Illumina ? in two sentences if possible ,because I am thick and life is too short ……… but very nice work fella !
Re Boo :- my confidence here is based solely on the new transactional app and the compulsive ditzy shopping habits of young women so ably demonstrated by my own daughter and her cohort .
Patent Bob
Reply @ 20:56 Fri 25th 2015
@wildrides “Are Prem gonna win the case or Illumina” No Idea…
May not be related to Patents but Tom may know more,
Tom Winnifrith @TomWinnifrith 46 mins
https://twitter.com/TomWinnifrith/status/647488298194182144
@Van_Vagabond @ShareThis good chat with CEO of #NIPT today, Im not selling @TomWinnifrith
If it was about patents then I have no idea how UK Patent Courts or Premathia might deal with disclosure or at what level it might be permitted or desirable in order to reassure shareholders.