Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 12 February

Comments

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   wildrides

   12 February 2015, 08:56

   Roll up , Roll up …………..read the latest ……….. Northcote Energy has production costs of only $20 per barrel at its conventional oil play …. Shoats Creek Louisiana . See the RNS today 3.04 P.M ……….. God bless America ……… pile in ……. never mind the north sea or the sheeplands . YES $20 dollar a barrel ………… $20 dollars a barrel …….got it yet .

   I declare an interest ( currently underwater at about 90 metres , breathing mixed gases to avoid oxy narcosis ) ( actually I feel a bit narked so gas must be low )

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   drunken sailor

   12 February 2015, 11:40

   Tom,

   I have seen misguided comments which say TXO shareholders should blame their death spiral funders Bergen for what has happened to TXO. That would be like blaming a shark for eating a wounded fish that swims willingly into its mouth.

   Taking Death Spiral funding is a double red flag. The company has to be desperate to do it in the first place – red flag 1. Red Flag 2 Death spiral funding pretty well guarantees approx 90% reduction in SP in 12 Months.

   TXO has not said it has enough cash to see it through to profitability, as it does not.

   AIM rule 10 Says:

   “An AIM company must take reasonable care to ensure that any information it notifies is not misleading, false or deceptive and does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information.”

   What TXO said was:

   Tim Baldwin, Chairman and CEO [2 of your 49 (50) red flags] of TXO, commented [not in the main body of the RNS, but a CEO comment]:

   “The subscription, along with the financing announced on 21(st) January 2015, ensures that the working capital requirements of the Company are met.”

   What is the key bit of information that is omitted?

   FOR HOW LONG! It does not say through to profitability or for next 12 months or even until the end of their current reporting year (30 Sep 15), it says nothing and deliberately so, thereby enabling people, your good self included, to make the erroneous assumption that it is through to profitability, for the next 12 months, until the end of the company’s FY or whatever assumption you want. It is therefore a deliberate breach of AIM rule 10 – wow I am sure AIM regulation will do as much about that deliberate rule breach as they have done about all the other deliberate rule breaches they have had reported to them.

   The reality is the £100k (TXO burns £600k per year on admin costs and has major debts to repay in Oct 15) would get them maybe to end April, following paying a new Nomad and Broker their up front retainer (if they can find one mad enough to take them on) and their auditors, who will raise the matter of going concern in their report (if they ever produce it).

   In the unlikely event that they do manage to make it to AGM, then there will be resolutions to do another capital reorg to lower the nominal yet again, probably by a factor of 10 (it was by a factor of 4 last year) but could be more and resolutions to allow them to issue a phenomenal number of new shares, possibly up to 90% of enlarged share capital.

   Today’s share price marked a milestone of 99% loss from the highs achieved under current management just over 3 years ago. The next milestone, which undoubtedly will be met, if the shares do not suspend first, comes at 0.02p and that is 99% loss on the placing price when current management “rescued the company”.

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   2+2=4

   12 February 2015, 16:45

   Drunken Sailor – heroic post: deserves a prime position in the AIM graveyard and many other places

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   2+2=4

   12 February 2015, 16:47

   Don’t know anything about TXO but it’s a great post

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   drunken sailor

   13 February 2015, 11:07

   2+2=4

   TXO is a scabby AIM investment company that has issued shares like confetti in order to keep the board in fees and related party transactions (where TXO pays the directors’ other companies for consultancy from the director). It is in its final death throws.

   A really funny BBM post today which is on a par with the best of the QPP BBM posts was that the CEO was actually a genius because he forced the Nomad to resign in order to force their death spiral funders (Bergen) to convert the rest of their shares and dump them only diluting shareholders by yet another 25% and crashing the share price by yet another 50% in the process.

   Bergen’s final batch of shares (about 9% of the company) are only admitted to trading on Thurs and TXO will most probably be suspended after close on Friday so Bergen have clearly done some deal to forward sell / short into the conversions.

   I fully expect the next 99% down milestone to be achieved next week, but the ramping has started on how the shares are going to fly once Bergen are out and there are complete Muppets out there that believe it!

   Proof if any where needed that there is a plentiful supply of totally naive PIs out there in BB land and QPP and Worthington have not monopolised them, thereby leaving the door open for the next scabby AIM investment company to come along and feed directors’ and advisors’ pockets by issuing confetti to a hungry mob of people who really should not be trusted with a piggy bank.

   Great move by this government to allow AIM shares in ISAs that is really helping poor AIM directors save for their future whilst leaving the masses destitute and reliant on the state in later life because they have blown all their life savings by gambling on the AIM Casino. It is unfair on casinos to call this end of AIM a casino as no self respecting Casino would rip off its mug punters as badly as this.