UK 22:33 Wednesday, 23 September 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
After Fevertree’s (FEVR) recent profits warning, Lucian Miers says that he has closed his short. Not that he expects the shares to surge higher just that he sees greater opportunities out there for the teddies. I am not so sure.
Lucian Miers and I both warned that this would happen as, I think, did the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. Chris Bailey is a non-drinker and disagreed. Never trust a non-drinker, as my pal Evil Knievil (not a non-drinker) would say. On 19 May Fevertree (FEVR) told us to expect flat FY EBITDA of £63 million to £66 million. Today, less than two months later…..
Lucian Miers wrote here a couple of weeks ago about Fevertree (FEVR) where he remains short. There may be some people laughing at him as the fizzy drinks group fairly promptly served up a trading statement suggesting that it was on track to meet forecasts. But that is looking in the rear-view mirror. What is important is what happens going forward.
Fevertree (FEVR) has issued a trading update, which seems to read well, but the shares are down and will fall further. Let me explain.
Until late 2019 shorting shares in Fevertree (FEVR) was an extremely unsuccessful strategy. Its has been a great British success story: a powerful global brand that in twenty years has conquered all before it with superb marketing of a great product.
It is good to see UK markets opening again this morning. No doubt a few people are worried about higher Bank of England interest rates this week, but frankly I would worry more if it did not raise interest rates (as that would tell you it feared the likelihood of a recession too). Meantime, elsewhere I note that there is an upcoming change at FeverTree (FEVR)...
I noted back in September last year that “I am still avoiding FeverTree (FEVR)” and since then the stock has fallen from above a 23 quid share price to just under 16 quid. So what should I now be thinking about the company still obsessed by the potential from the “long-mixed drink category from retailers, spirits brands and consumers, especially given the increasing focus on premium segments"?
In March I observed that “I'm still not buying the stock - or drinking the product - of Fevertree (FEVR)” HERE. The one line view is that nothing has changed and (interestingly given the general market movements over the last few months) the share price is about the same level as it was about six months ago. Whilst the latter sounds dull - especially as the dividend yield is still under 1% - it has not been a disaster given the volatility in some other share prices. The challenge for Fever-Tree however remains its c. x40 EV:EBIT multiple for the full year, around double the level of underlying operating earnings growth. As always, it depends on what you pay for forward growth potential.
I think I have tried a Fever-tree (FEVR) product once but I do not have the right drink preference to be a natural big fan. Anyhow, I did not decide to chase the stock when I last wrote it up in April last year here which actually turned out to be a duff call, as it seems many investors seemed comfortable in paying a higher and higher multiple. Well, funnily enough, I have never really found a forward 40 plus earnings multiple as an easy purchase.
