UK 11:26 Sunday, 4 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Oh gosh this is complicated. Perhaps I am just a bit stupid and a Bulletin Board Moron can assist with answers to the questions about Quindell’s (QPP) relationship with Himex because it is all jolly complicated. Let’s start in July 2013 when Quindell bought a 19% stake in Himex for £1.8 million in cash and 64.8 million shares. Easy...
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Comments
wildrides
err………pass.
Tom W
Wildes
The questions were not for you. Like me you are too thick to be able to answer
They were for Bulletin Board Morons like KB or Filthy who might care to take time off from playing the man, to actually answer since they are so clever that they own Quindell
Best wishes
Tom
Tom W
Flthy
But I am not. As it happens I have reported Mr Drumroll to ADVFN for copywrite breach. Why the fuck would I hand out copy from this site on BBs?
Switch your tiny little brain on for a second
T
wildrides
Cheers ,
I think the QPP morons should read Matt Earls piece on “Pig and Pork” featured in latest news on SP front page top right . Sounds remarkably similar to a certain software company they may themselves know ! and similar to Vin Murria talking about companies selling stuff to each other by arrangement and then capitalising it to inflate profits . ( see vid from a few days ago )
Peter
Tom W
funny enough my last post was ‘lost’… Anyway, here my question again: you keep on repeating your ‘generous’ price target of 20p without letting us know what exactly the assumptions for that target are. You wrote in the past that Terry is not giving answers to your simple questions… Well, it is time to let us know about your calculation.
Tom W
Peter
My assumption is that with TIG in the end the cash will run out. As such there will be vast writedowns of goodwill for acqusitions which were massively overpaid for (Himex) and also of accruals. So balance sheet backing will disappear.
At that point new management will persuade those IIs who have been dum enough to back this that to avoid a write off there should be rescur refinancing at 1p ( old money) or 15p new money. And that will be the bottom for the shares.
But it may be that I am being too generous and 20p is too high a target price.
t
Mr Sheen
Tom
I don’t know much about you – beyond the fact that your contributions seem to provoke strong emotions, for and against.
Your coverage of Quindell however seems to be bordering on the obsessive. How about some considered analysis – less is more!
Companies that exist in the form of groups are often complex in their internal trading and financial arrangements and hence difficult to interpret with any certainty from outside. However, it would seem to me that the pace of acquisition has slowed substantially, many of these companies are now becoming fully integrated into Quindell – correct me if I am wrong but Himex is now fully owned.
Over time, Quindell will become a more transparent entity and people will be able to judge whether it operates a sustainable business model.
In the meantime, Quindell seems to be trying to do the right things in corporate governance terms as it makes the transition from small to medium sized business – invariably tricky!
Until then, the fanatical comment on both side of the debate adds little. How about moving on and using your undoubted experience elsewhere.
BTW for the avoidance of doubt, I have a small holding in Quindell, bought at a low price – Naturally I hope to do well from this investment but if things turn out badly will walk away without emotion.
Peter
Tom W
Thanks! But balance sheet backing is not really important for this investment case since they don’t carry a lot of debt on the balance sheet. GW write down is not nice but not essential since It is a non cash item.
I agree that the cash cycle is the the crucial bit for this investment case. But here it’s in the hands of the company to write new business or not. They seem to understand that since they have recently be more selective.
I don’t understand your statement regarding a rescue financing to avoid write downs?? Again possible write downs have no effect on cash and since there are not many creditors on board this risk seems to be avoidable.
Tom W
P.
The mammoth goodwill writedowns not a cash issue but will mean red ink all over P&L.
If that is combined with company smply running out of cash and so having to gain extra funding to get a (revised) business plan through to cash generation such a refinancing would be at a trivial price.
Qindell does have some debt BTW. As at 30/6 cash was £84m ( how much was client cash & reg cap) and debt was £60m
t
Tom W
Mr S
I write about what interests me most – I have that freedom. So right now that is life in a Greek hovel ( most of my articles) & QPP.
I merely ask questions. If Quindell answered them it would shut me, the FT, Questor etc up.
It does not. Time will tell
For the avoidance of doubt, during the past week I have written around 70 articles for various websites of which 8 were on QPP. The most common keywords in my pieces have been Greece, The Greek Hovel, rats and snakes. Not exactly obsessive
Best wishes
T
Bally
Tom, Ai Claims have no history of write downs in their 10yr history, what makes you think they will start now?
They collected £270m cash in 2013 and in H1 ’14 collected £220m. Thats good no?!
Debtor days also reducing from 6.5months 2013 to 4.6months this year.
mjnandrew
Tom … Qpp have paid well over the odds for the current revenues/tech himex has. However, RT must think it.s worth it if his telematics masterplan works out. I reckon this is his last throw of the dice …if telematics, for whatever reason, doesnt ramp up substantially the whole business will be worth not alot. How much RT can play with goodwill valuations and amounts offset v p/l account is anyones’ business. He.ll sail as close to the wind accounting wise as he always does/has. If / when this goes tips-up, it.ll be a violent ending. What other shenanigans can be pulled off whilst waiting for the telematics white knight to save them? I.d be worried.
Peter
Let’s stay with the facts:
1. No matter how “red” the P&L might get (if your expected write downs ever happen), there will have NO effect on cash!
2. As you might know the way this business works is such that QPP has to outlay cash for every new case they take on board. If they have not enough cash left, they will have to stop to take on new cases. That doesn’t mean that already existing cases will not deliver cash in the mean time, ie. crucial are the assumptions about the individual cases and the time each case might take to feed into cash.
3. As Bally mentioned debtor days improved to 4,6. Nothing to add here.
Sorry to say, but your target price calculation looks rather simplified to me. A target price 20p might be nice headline for an investment letter, but your calculation doesn’t really add any substance to this discussion. I read the Cannacord report and although I think some assumptions in there are flawed, it’s way more realistic than what you present here.
Tom W
Peter
I see no-one has yet answered the Himex questions.
I shall turn to that Canaccord note and issues of cash tomorrow. The article is written & will go out in AM
Best wishes
Tom
wildrides
It does not matter how much cash is coming in to the business if its also going out faster than its coming in .The business will run out of cash .
Think of a bath been filled with the plug out . the water is cash …. ged it .
Fleece a moron a day , it helps you work rest and play .
Peter
Tom W
You are not expecting answers to your questions when you call the readers of this blog ‘Bulletin Board Morons’, right?
Anyway… I will not call you an investment letter moron for the time being…
I guess you have presented the above questions to QPP and they have not answered!? For the same reason you were not allowed to take part in the AGM?
If you believe the books are cooked you should approach the regulator and the auditor.
Re question 1: could the reason be an activation of an option agreement which was in place between Himex and Quindell?
Tom W
Filthy
You said I was short. I have never been short.
Yes I said sell QPP all the way down to 7.41 and then it bounced sharply to 44p.
It will see 7.41p ( 101p) again and lower
T
Tom W
Peter
Readers of this financial website and most BB users are not morons. Just a few are. I think I have made that clear.
QPP refuse to answer questions from myself, the FT, Questor etc.
Fine – perhaps shareholders who have more to lose than we do might ask the same questions?
If the option was activated in Dec it should have been announced. The Options according to Annual Report were activated on 4th Feb although only announced 18 Feb.
Try again :)
T
Peter
My understanding is that the option has not to be activated to count as exposure if such an agreement is in place.
@wildrides: cash outflow is coming down quickly because they have done all necessary acquisitions. As I mentioned before, outflows from now on are for customer acquisitions. These kind of money outflow can be stopped in a day. So the bath could be re-filled very quickly if the plug is back in place.
@mjnandrew: I see a bigger risk in the NIHL assumptions than in the telematics business. Telematics is not an important part for the business within the next years
Tom W
Peter
Aha – so was the option not in place in July when the deal was done? So why not an associate then?
Or are you saying QPP arranged a mammoth option deal in Dec but did not issue an RNS and then exercise the option 5 weeks later?
Please explain. Try again:)
Re your point to Wildes. So which part of QPP’s businesses will be generating cash n Q3. We now Himex/Ingenie/PT will not and PLC costs are steep so which units will be cashflow +ve?
t
Peter
I’ve not said that QPP has arranged a mammoth option deal in December, but we know that there was an option agreement in place, right?!
The agreement to get a majority stake in the company must have in place before the announcement in February, right? Or are you saying that they arranged the option agreement in January 2014?
Your questions points into the wrong direction. For the shareholder it is not material when they had Himex as an associate on their books. The important question would be if the prospects of this company are worth the price they paid.
By the way: I don’t have to ‘try’ anything. You were asking a question… but I have the impression that you are actually not looking for answers!?
Regarding my comment to wilderides (who obviously has to do some homework on QPP – a fellow ‘analyst’?): I’ve not said that QPP will have positive cash generation in Q3! Have I? Where?
To my understanding QPP has sufficient cash for Q3! They had GBP 84 mill end of Q2! Correct me if I’m wrong.
Tom W
Peter
So in short you cannot explian why December. As to the other 2 questions you cannot answer either. I think they are incredibly relevant in ascertaining how QPP reported the 2013 numbers it did.
As for cashflow, okay I repeat, QPP says that it will be operationally neutral in Q3. Humour me and ignore QLS. Which other operations will generate cash in Q3 in order to cover PLC costs, losses at Himex etc?
QPP had cash of £84m but debt of £60m and a tax bill of £25m due by Sept 30. If QPP burns cash in Q3 & I was its banker I think I’d be getting a tad scared wouldn’t you?
T
Peter
Tom W
Remember, I was trying to help you answer some questions I find irrelevant for this investment case. In regards to your statement regarding the Q3 results I (which seems to important for you): QPP has so far delivered on guidance, so the odds are on their side…
What I forgot to mention….I’m planning to build up a position in QPP in the upcoming weeks and hope that some weakness will persist (which might be the case when new accusations from GCR and yourself make the so called ‘Bulletin Board Morons (BBM)’ panic).
I think this a great opportunity to benefit from a first mover advantage in a dramatically changed regulatory environment. Having said that this company definitely has weaknesses regarding transparency and has been aggressive in projecting and accounting revenues in the past.
What makes me very positive is that there are still some ILM’s (Investment Letter Morons) out there who are constantly producing so called ‘research comments’ instead of trying to understand the business model. A statement like the one from wildrides shows that he is not close to familiar with the model of the company, nor has he read/understood the latest Canaccord report or the company presentations.
PS: Your statements – Tom – are far from objective and remind me of the old saying: ‘For a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail’
wildrides
exactly my point re cash ……………you cant put the plug back in ( input fixed costs and variable costs ) . So the business will run out of cash in my opinion . That is because I dont believe they can get the work in and paid for ( unless they sell on unpaid invoices for a discount which will just accelerate the inevitable future cash shortage )
As an aside, I have had three firms ring me up asking about starting an industrial deafness claim in ten days . So there appears to be a bit of energy expended getting through the sales leads as fast as possible . I am not deaf, so I can only assume being of a certain age is enough to generate interest from these vultures . Not had so many calls since the PPP debacle .
Dirk Diggler
Hey Tom
Came across your goodself for the first time last week. I know very little about you but i’m guessing you’ve lost a lot of money in the past.
Money that hurt you.. lost by companies who let you down.
You now appear to be somewhat pathological. I can only see tough times ahead for you in your life if you don’t let go…….if you don’t let go of all the hurt, bitterness and resentment broiling over from within your soul.
When you put out so much negativity into the universe you only succeed in guaranteeing ongoing negativity in your life.
Tom its time…..it’s time to let it out……just let it out….let it out!….let go of all that hurt!…….FORGIVE FORGIVE FORGIVE! ! For If you don’t it will consume you no doubt!
You stand at a pivotal moment in your life….Which direction will you go?………
Choose wisely
D
Tom W
Dirk
Thanks for the assessment of my state of mind.
What you see here is 1/3 of me. Behind the paywall I write buy tips. Occassionally I do here too.
On www.TomWinnifrith.com I write about life in a fairly upbeat manner.
But AIM is riven with wrong so I spend 1/3 of my time as a questionner here, 1/3 looking for buying opps and 1/3 writing about life.
I am not sure I have ever been so well balanced.
Best wishes
T
Tom W
Filthy.
Indeed shorters across the world are now attracted to AIM. Its failure to implement securities laws ( ie folks lying via RNS) has made it a haven for crony capitalists and fraudsters, a Cesspit of its own making. Hece those who profit from exposing fraud and over-promotion swarm like flies to the AIM Cesspit.
AIM is a Cesspit becuase it is stacked with fraudsters and over promoters and its Nomad based regulatory machine is a joke around the world. That is why even (I think) 5 years ago the head of Nasdaq described it as a casino. He is right.
T
Tom W
Filthy
Time to up the medication again.
Nowhere have I said that all 1200 companies on AIM are bent. I write buy tips on AIM stocks FFS.
I specifically go after what i a relatvely small number of companies. But perhaps you think I should just pretend the whole garden smells of roses.
There are however several hundred AM stocks that are not investment grade material and that Id like to see delist as they will just lose shareholders monet as a crony capitalism transfer of welath from the many to the few.
You object to that?
T
wildrides
Tom,
I think you have a stalker in
Lilthy Fucre.
could this be the window starer ?
zeronegative
Hi,
Surely this companies business model is simple to understand.
1. Spend lots of monies to generate revenues + paper profits.
2. Hope to get the debtors to repay but it looks like they don’t get the full amount back.
3. Appears that for every £1 they spend they get say 80% back
4. All cash received from debtors is used to generate more revenue and paper profits and cash in the bank is used to top up the constant shortfall. Company announces its received hundreds of millions of cash but doesn’t breakdown the details about which debtors have paid and which year its from.
5. Hence low cash flows and cash balances dropping at a staggering rate just to keep the revenues increasing.