Premaitha Company chat - those 2 sets of forecasts and more: buy

Comments

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   wildrides

   14 February 2016, 06:39

   Sell it and buy back nearer to the court case when the price has dropped . Ooooh I had a terrible sense of da ja vous then ……. uncanny .

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   Alquemie

   14 February 2016, 11:26

   Hmmmm……nothing wrong with enthusiasm but don’t underestimate the complexity of the patent challenge (even allowing for the generally more benign nature of UK and European judgements) nor the rate of adoption by the NHS or other public healthcare systems. The cost-benefit of non-invasive prenatal testing has not been established and, in common with other screening procedures, defining value is not a simple process. As I’ve commented before, NIPT needs to either diversify or hope for early acquisition.

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   Simple Moving Avarice

   14 February 2016, 11:27

   So we’ve got Sequenom, Illumina(Verinata), Roche(Ariosa), Natera and Premaitha all offering NIPT tests for the same set of problems.

   Illumina and Sequenom have pooled their patents for NIPT and they are going after the rest. Ariosa were acquired by Roche and Premaitha’s best outcome would be to be acquired by a big global health-care company too. They currently have one product and no patent protection.

   But they need to get a move on because a team of scientists have already shown that given the mother and father’s DNA and the same blood sample as everyone else they can determine the inherited complement of the fetal genome. At which point it is game over for tests which just look for a handful of specific disorders. This method finds everything there is to know and it going to be snapped up by one of the biggest players and used to clobber the rest.

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   handybrownone

   15 February 2016, 01:27

   SMA – nice link but the genetic diseases that NIPT test are trisomes. This is where the sperm and ova each donate a set of chromosomes each and then there is a process of merging, mixing and separation called meiosis. It really is a wonder of nature and is why we are all unique. Trisomes is where an extra chromosome is accidentally formed. It is not determined as far as I am aware by the genes of the parents. Therefore, sequencing the parents will not help. The general comments you say I cant fault though plus others that a bit of diversity is needed – what is the next product? Also do not underestimate the complete inability of the NHS to implement any new technology even if it benefits patients and even if it saves money – I point to Deltex as an example – monitoring of blood gases during surgery has been shown to benefit patients by an economic study and Deltex had the best one and only CE marked product. Even central NHS HQ said implement – almost zero response. So Deltex went to the USA – Premaitha should do the same – oh but look they can’t.. Anyway I hold some – I’m an optimist.

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   shares321

   15 February 2016, 03:53

   It is worth pointing out that currently testing for Down syndrome involves amniocentesis (taking amniotic fluid from inside womb). This carries a 1% chance of miscarriage and around a 1:1000 risk of serious infection. So I think NIPT testing will become the gold standard and completely replace amniocentesis testing fairly soon in developed countries. It could also be included in IVF implant screening further expanding the market. Premaitha have a good chance of taking a large market share in Europe as they are leading the adoption of the test. Premaitha’s not only test for trisomy 21 (Down’s syndrome), but also for trisomy18 (Edwards’s syndrome) and trisomy 13 (Patau’s syndrome). In the future, they also plan to make their trisome testing for cancer cytogenetics.

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   Simple Moving Avarice

   15 February 2016, 05:06

   handybrownone – good point and perhaps I diluted my point with the link. All the companies offering NIPT tests seem to offer trisonomy tests on chromosomes 13, 18, 21, triploidy and identify sex. Clearly this is a huge market but also a crowded and competitive one. Every company needs to keep improving their offering in order to get an edge. So those best placed to snap up new methods and patents as they arise will ultimately dominate the rest.

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   Sachin Melwani

   17 February 2016, 14:00

   I don’t think some of the key points of this article have been understood from some of the comments:
   1) Substantial Contracts are expected by BOD within 6 months on the NHS which could result in a revised broker rating
   2) Premaitha expect to be cash positive in 1 years time and within two years of trading and potentially by March ’17 if sales forecast changes with greater NHS uptake
   These points should mean significant changes to the current sp before the October reading on the 1st Patent challenge which whatever outcome would likely be challenged.

   What the article and the BOD have not explained to potential shareholders, is (a) Why publish the Hardman report twice (28-Jan-16 & 15-Dec-15) only to then distance themselves from the financial projections?, (b) Why was there a rush to update Hardman before the Leeds Hospitals NHS Trust and Visional Medical contract wins and St George Capacity Upgrade so they could be included in their forecasts, © What the nature of the Thermo Fisher’s support will be following their loan agreement?, and (d) What will be the new oncology and liquid biopsy products to be announced as the above doesn’t forecast their sales?