UK 12:46 Wednesday, 7 October 2026
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Disclosure: The author has a short position in one or more of the shares mentioned. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
You have to hand it to Avanti Communications (AVN): faced with its fourth annual earnings or revenue miss on the trot it has managed yet again to paper over the ever-widening cracks in its creaking edifice.
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Comments
Eshaitan
Thanks Lucien
When their RNS was released a few weeks ago I posted that the revenues seemed to be decreasing once that spectrum “sale” was stripped out. I increased my short as well, they are haemorrhaging cash. I can’t wait until November when the q1 interims come out, try obfuscating those!
wildrides
What a complete blue sky piece of shite this is . If the fundies were not bad enough then the fact that the orbits for satellites are now so full of space junk that a few more collisions will result in near space satellite total wipe out . Like a giant game of space billiards . Could happen any time apparently ………. sleep well investors .
alcira16247
Lucien
Certainly not a stock for the widows and orphans fund, then?
Its got to be a huge red flag when a company appears to go out of its way to obscure its accounts in such a manner.
With debts approaching $550 million, huge negative cash outflows and no immediate forecasts of when profitability will be reached, its not hard to see why Avanti remains a bear favourite.
Can management deliver on its promises that the combination of strong revenue growth and largely fixed cash cost base will lead to substantial operating cash flows in the medium-term (3yrs+?) and hence profitability and pay dividends?
On past company performance the market seems sceptical!
lucian
Wildrides
Satellites crashing is probably best option for bond holders who are owed $550mn They are insured for $476mn so they would get a fair bit of their money back. Shareholders toast whatever happens.
Phil
Woe betide anyone who invests in companies that trade intangible assets but cannot create turnover.
The key metric for these capacity models is turnover. The issue is leverage, wonderful exponential increases in profits for small increases in turnover and logarithmic falls in profits on small reductions in turnover.
Avanti’s downfall is in the failure to fill up those satellites, the used capacity metric is appalling, if they cannot fill one how on earth can they fill two.This is the underlying reason why they cooked the books, if Avanti does fail and I think it will, it will be quick and it will be savage and will be included in the ever growing number of dotcom company crashes.
I am short in Avanti but I haven’t increased it, it is a BB favourite and they take the SP all over the place, as I found out the first time I shorted it and ended up with somewhat of a bloody nose, my second attempt is a more modest one.