Why worry about France 10 year 4.92% today, having a better day ( avoided a downgrade) at the same time the basket case seems to be UK 10 year 5.35% and that is before the budget.German 10 year 3.37%.Everything seems to be a worry. Is it the nights drawing in and the rainy/stormy weather?The heating going on after a glorious summer, adds to costs!It starts to feel like cash is king and dividend paying stocks is the place to be.Though the government might increase the tax companies pay on dividends, decreasing the value of dividends paid to shareholders, a socialist government would claim it only effects the rich.Stocks and Shares ISAs in the UK stands at approximately £531.2 billion if dividends are £25 billion a year a 10% increase on dividends before they reach your ISA would raise £2.5 billion.I would not put anything past these socialist bastards.
"The big banks / financial system are healthy now"With $40T from the Fed balance sheet and similarly frightening amounts elsewhere in the Western economies all dependent on "the confidence of strangers" I'd say that is quite the assumption.With talk of a potential bail out for France, the ECB is damned if it does, or doesn't. A big domino to topple.
Was there not there an article from Tom suggesting that if the market tanks that gold would also follow ( albeit less so and for a shorter period ). Based on that advice, and looking at charts, surely the best advice is to be in cash, certainly in the short term, earning a good interest payment. There is a distinct possibility that interest rates are exactly where they should be ( normal levels ) and will be for a while ( if not higher ). It was an anomaly having them where they were after the gfc. The big banks / financial system are healthy now, that's the big difference. I'll be watching Berkshire Hathaway and decide what to do when they start to reduce their cash reserves in a meaningful way.
Nigel you should offer your services to American Media channels. You can appear on these channels and be completely wrong and no one ever asks you when you are interviewed on the next occasion why you were wrong.The prominent gold expert and financial author who projected gold reaching $10,000 per ounce around the end of 2026 or mid-2027 is Jim Rickards (author of Currency Wars).First it was dec 2026 now he has shifted it to mid 2027 .( We shall see )
So people warned of a hurricane / cyclone / typhoon through 5 channels are significantly LESS likely to take action than those warned through 4???Sorry, I'm calling cobblers on that.There are clear anomalies around statistical significance calling that whole chart into question.
Excellent analysis as always. We have the Budget this week and the only thing that I can see to help keep this show on the road is a massive cut in Stamp Duty to kick start and propel the housing market forwards. Prices shouldn’t go any higher because interest rates are relatively high but greater transaction increases would mean lots more work and money sloshing about. Estate Agents, removers, cleaners, home DIY projects, extensions, carpets, garden designers - the list of winners goes on and on - and all because of transaction growth. I know it’s tricky but scraping Employees NIC and adding it to income tax would bring in loads of money!
