The latest update from Avacta (AVCT) on its AVA 6000 product should serve as a reminder that this is going absolutely nowhere and, on that basis, just how ludicrously overpriced the stock is.
Nearly three years after Gabriel Grego revealed that Cassava Sciences. (NASDAQ:SAVA) which claimed to have a cure for Alzheimer's. was a worthless fraud the shares fell 90% in a day as their phase three trials proved a failure. At Sharestock in September I described Cassava as like Avacta (AVCT) on steroids and that both would likely share the same fate.
A company the size of Avacta (AVCT) should not need grubby paid for research. It should have institutional research for institutional investors. But Avacta’s share price is driven by Joe Retail and Joe Retail is getting very bored.
If Avacta (AVCT) really believed that AVA 6000 would make it out of phase 2 trials it would be betting the ranch on it. But the last reported data was so bad that you can understand why it is not. So what to do? Move the goalposts that is what.
It seems that I am no longer Emmanuel Goldstein for the Avacta (AVCT) shareholder community. I am gutted. That title now belongs to Paul Cuddon a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank who has had the audacity to question AVA 6000 and to suggest that the shares are a sell. He is now being accused by the cultists of spreading “misinformation.”
Is it silly old TW who has warned folks time and time again about Avacta (AVCT) and who again stands vindicated after today's bombshell news with the shares now languishing at 60p. Am I a moron and has anyone spotted the woodwork I have been hiding in? Or is a man who cannot read what i write behind a paywall but who comments on it anyway and who has lost vast sums ignoring my warnings the moron? What do you think. There are just so many total a'holes on twitter are there not?
Analyst Paul Cudden does not mince his words. Social media defenders of Avacta (AVCT), always a thick bunch of conspiracy theorists, claim he is only bearish as Avacta used to employ his Mrs but fired her. Whether that is the case or not, Deustche would not allow research to go out based purely on a grudge and the loons cannot argue with the FACTS. Well they can but that is why they are loons.
The barrage of, often defamatory, abuse and trolling I am getting from shareholders in Avacta (AVCT), furious about articles and podcasts they cannot read or hear as they are behind a paywall but which they insist are all false anyway, is not letting up. It is always a good sign for bears when a shareholder list contains so many certifiable nutters. Yesterday’s nutter of the day was @oinkers46558699 who posts:
Having seen its shares slide to c40p, Avacta (AVCT) bulls were cheering last week as the stock topped 80p. Brown envelope man said it was certain to race higher and the bulls cheered. “burn shorters burn” they cried. Today the shares are 66p and falling so what has changed other than the share price?
Avacta (AVCT) did not need to give a detailed trading update at its AGM and it is to its credit that it has. However, the news is truly uninspiring and there is an explicit warning that the begging bowl will need to be passed around, yet again, in 2025.
Just over three weeks ago I made a duff call on Avacta (AVCT) at 51.25p. I believed then, as I believe now, that at some point these shares will collapse as I explained HERE but I argued that shorts should be closed. Well, that was a poor shout as the shares have already lost 16%. So are they worth shorting now? Over to Liverpool’s greatest numbers man since Ken Dodd who has done well shorting this in the past. He says…
For a long time Avacta (LSE:AVCT) has been a stalwart of my stocks to short portfolio. The valuation of a company whose lead product AVA 6000 is still in phase 1 trials was bonkers. Worse still there was a clear need to raise cash, a looming black hole. It was a nil brainer.
Let’s be clear, after the recent £31 million fund raise, with no imminent cash crisis, Avacta (AVCT) is no longer a compelling short at 53p. We perma bears have won, drunk our ouzo and moved on, to the sound of gnashing teeth among impoverished bulletin board poltroons. But when it next starts to run out of cash its shares will collapse. And its valuation, £187 million plus another £40 million when all death spirals are converted looks very chunky indeed for a company whose lead product is not yet in phase 2 trials. Today there is more “news” but it means nothing at all and strikes me as a desperate attempt to keep the shares above the 50p placing price.
The shares closed Wednesday 28th down yet again at 74.4p and then, after hours, came the bombshell I warned folks about repeatedly but which Bulletin Board gerbils were in denial about: a placing at just 50p. Expect the sound of timber collapsing and gerbils squealing first thing. As the most hated of the Avacta (AVCT) bears, I shall enjoy a sober celebration at Sheriff of AIM Towers. Schadenfreude is the order of the day.
I am NOT saying that Avacta (AVCT) or its agents are sounding out about a fund raise just yet although they may be and the recent share price action suggests that something is afoot. But, as I warned most recently HERE, Avacta will have to raise this year and if it is smart it will not leave it to the wire. Events at Faron Pharma (FARN) in recent days suggest that investor appetite for stocks in this sector is not quite what it once was….
I started writing about biotech and emerging pharma stocks more than 30 years ago when I was at the Investors Chronicle. The army of PI cheerleaders for Avacta (AVCT) probably have not heard of British Biotech, a £2 billion blow up, of ML Labs a half a billion blow up. Almost thirty years ago I exposed both companies for the overvalued crocks they were and also for the way that they duped investors with misleading releases.
Hello Share Tweakers. Today’s article illustrates a Stock Market stratagem. But it’s dead risky and I don't recommend it. However, it’s a speculative ploy that’s sometimes clicked for me over many years. So it’s only fair to tell you about it, while ironically warning you off.
