It is a big results day for financial sector analysts, as a bunch of US banks will give their quarterly updates. I am sure that I will appraise these results at some level, but I am less excited about them than I used to be. Whilst we all need to have a bank account, access to certain insurance products and, at some level, a pension product, as an investor you do not need to directly own such shares. And that is especially true in the developed world. On that basis, fund managers that focus on the world’s developing and emerging economies should be in a good spot and so Ashmore Group (ASHM) should be in a good place.
For yet another year I have failed to make it to the World Economic Forum’s shindig in Davos. It is so not me anyway. I guess I could probably waffle about this and that akin to everyone you will see on the TV, radio and internet over the next few days, but there are so many better things you can be doing than spending a fortune to get a ticket. I see the Davos meeting this year is titled “cooperation in a fragmented world”, which I am sure is all about spending lots more money. Suffice to say, common-sense is a lot more boring and a hell of a lot cheaper. And that brings us back to the world of global equity markets over the rest of the 2020s and beyond, and the comments of the leading emerging markets fund manager Ashmore Group (ASHM) today.
We have talked many times in the past about the reasons why the next fifteen years in global markets are going to be different from the last fifteen years. You should never worry about change (in fact I would worry more about a lack of change in economics or in life in general). And, if I had to make a guess about the focus of the investment world in 2037, I doubt it will be all about favourite Nasdaq holdings or how high the dollar is. Simply put, investors in Ashmore Group (ASHM), “one of the world's leading Emerging Markets investment managers with a history of consistently outperforming the market”, should be feeling excited about prospects. But despite a near 7% rise in the share price today, why is their stock nearly down 40% over the last five years?
The 1980s was a great decade in many ways with the best music, best prime minister, massive new excitement about capitalism and much, much more. It was a great decade to be a teenager and learn about shares through reading the Daily Mail.
Mid-October is always when the investment world gets more busy again, with the American corporate earnings season starting this week and Europe (including the UK) next week. All good fun, especially in a month (or so) when I will rack up my 25th anniversary of being involved at some level with the City. What fun!
I have been criticised before for using the phrase ‘emerging markets’ with the observation “so what are they emerging from then?”. And there was I thinking that a bit of ESG utilisation would have made everything okay... Anyhow, I came across an interesting graphic the other day, which hopefully the internal technical genius (i.e. Darren) can upload.
I read somewhere in the last few days that the 2020s is going to be the 'decade of Asia' and you do not need an advanced degree in financial forecasting to work out why. Emerging markets investment is a common preference in the start of year strategic calls but, as I talked about here back in September, 'you buy (fund manager) Ashmore (ASHM) when emerging markets are out of favour...or you just buy emerging market assets for the very long haul'. Today's trading update from the company looks rather good…
There are only two ways to play the emerging markets: you are either in them for the longer haul or you trade them. I think a bit of both is appropriate, a sort of core and satellite approach. Ultimately there are lots of supportive big theme mega-trends (urbanisation, population, rise of a higher consumption middle class) but also lots of potential issues around dodgy governments, corruption and the natural volatility from anything that is 'emerging'…








