UK 03:29 Friday, 9 October 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Very, very occasionally applying some of the techniques applied by the ‘teenage scribbler’ analysts in the formal and overpaid analyst sector can be useful. Today’s numbers from Lloyds Bank (LLOY) is a good example. As I write the shares have dumped today because today’s Q1 trading update contained some profit numbers that did not meet hopes. Actually to be more precise some complex buying back of bonds has complicated the reported numbers. The ‘teenage scribblers’ have called it a ‘miss’ and down the shares go. However - as is the way with analysts – those same scribblers after a bit of reflection will crank out their formal number crunching and conclude the stock is ‘cheap’. In short the voting machine is cautious whilst the weighing machine gets more optimistic.
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Comments
Marvin
I really don’t get the share price of Lloyds. I’ve piled the majority of my stack into it and even if the sp doesn’t rocket, I’m happy to pick up the dividends.
Bring on the bursting of the car finance bubble and the housing crash. I’m still confident.
Famous last words maybe.
wildrides
Marvin ………. your bonkers
Lloyds is a train crash waiting to happen . Their sole purpose for existence is to think up new and inventive ways to fleece their customers and collect regulatory fines of massive proportions . They have an ingrained habit of incessant , incompetent and naive sales patter and clumsy interventions into customers private banking business that drives customers mad and eventually away . Good luck …….. you will need it ……in spades .
Weasel
Am I missing something on the ‘back of an envelope’ calculation? Surely when you turn Underlying Return On Equity in to a “useable” ratio it should be 1.138 not 1.38? Other wise you are effectively multiplying by 38% rather than 13.8%?
Am I being dim?
Marvin
“Their sole purpose for existence is to think up new and inventive ways to fleece their customers and collect regulatory fines of massive proportions”
It’s a bank Wilds. That’s what they are supposed to do. And bank fines are now just seen as a tax. Built in to the SP.
They have much less exposure anything outside the UK these days which I see as a positive and I don’t see big corrections at the high end of the housing market or in personal loans seriously denting the SP especially at the current level.
Chris Bailey
@Weasel – in order to make the article mildly readable I didn’t break into the full monty quant analysis but essentially 10% RoE is consistent with a teenage scribbler x1 book value. So 13% = x1.3 etc. Good observation though: appreciate you reading the article in such depth.