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EIA How Great Are Those Forecasts

By Steve Brown

13 January 2016 01:22

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Friends, Oilmen, Economists, I come not to bury Sieminski but to praise him. In case you don't know (I confess I didn't) Adam Sieminski is the Administrator of the US Energy Information Administration, or the EIA. He, or more likely someone in his organisation, publishes a monthly forecast of oil production for the USA. It is called the Short Term Energy Outlook and in this post I am going to take a look at some of those forecasts over the past few years to see how Adam and his team have done.

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Comments

turbograndad

12 January 2016, 14:52

Here Here, the fix is in.
handybrownone

13 January 2016, 02:07

The sort of research and graphic that paints a story, along with the overlay of yesterday on production and rig count. Well done
alcira16247

13 January 2016, 05:42

Steve

Our American friends may be headed towards further trouble as now the worlds largest Oil producer seeks to de-dollarize.

The Russian move to price in Roubles its huge oil exports to world markets, with the introduction of the new Russian oil benchmark contracts to begin trading on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. This would not only break the monopoly of Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate contracts ( which the Russians see as methods used by major Wall Street banks to manipulate and control world oil prices) but accelerate the demise of the ‘PetroDollar’ and further weaken the status of the US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency.

Added that China also plan to launch their own oil benchmark contracts denominated in Chinese Yuan and traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.

These moves are all part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling many of Americas foreign critics economies away from reliance of ‘earning’ US dollars as not only oil but many other dollar traded commodities end.

The economic consequences for the US could be severe as the need for nations to buy dollars through Federal Treasury Bonds dries up, severely effecting the ability of the US to continue financing its horrendous and increasing deficits ………. if so…….. wonder how President Trump would react? God help us!