Busy Thursday…but I had to spend a bit of time looking again at Trainline

It is always busy right in the middle of the global quarterly corporate earnings season, but it is good fun too. As I noted earlier this year, Next (NXT) is a very sensible company that continues to move forward so much better than many of its peers. However, life is far from easy for it and, if I am going to add the stock to my pension fund, I still need to see a sub sixty quid share price. Elsewhere, Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) may ramble on about “net new business of £1.6 billion in the period, up 14% on Q3 FY22”, but the shares are still down year-to-date.

Trainline (#TRN) – FY swing to adj. EPS 7.7p, still down on pre-pandemic year

Trainline (#TRN) – argues “record net ticket sales” but just talks of that and adjusted EBITDA, how’s that bottom line?!

Trainline (#TRN) – H1 £12.2m profit, net debt of £70m

Trainline (#TRN) – H1 revenue up to £165m. Er, what about the bottom-line?

Trainline get excitement ahead of a webinar for investors and analysts

I noted a couple of months ago on Trainline (TRN) that the stock was a “distinct Avoid for me…in a year’s time it might announce a full year 2023 profit but it would not surprise me if the share is once again c. two quid and not the current c. three quid share price by then”. Why then are Trainline shares up over 15% today?

Trainline (#TRN) – emphasises revenue increase, but what about the bottom-line?

Trainline (#TRN) – appointment of interim CFO, argues “continues to make good financial and operational progress”. Hmmm

Despite today’s rising share price, my view is keep avoiding shares in Trainline

It is no surprise to see Mondi (MNDI) shares up over 6% today after its positive trading update out after the close yesterday. I am a bit of a fan of both Mondi and its rough peer DS Smith (SMDS) as mentioned about both of them back in March, but a FTSE 350 name I’ve not been a fan of is Trainline (TRN). So why has its full year numbers today pushed the shares up by nearly 5%?

Trainline (#TRN) – FY still a loss, argues expects strong growth but also International “investment”

Trainline (#TRN) – FY adj. EBITDA towards £40m, no mention of bottom-line or balance sheet, wonder why?!

Continued comedy at Trainline

I used to use Trainline (TRN) a bit in the two or three years before the world of COVID-19 emerged, probably more from a convenience perspective than potentially saving loads of money when booking a train journey. Like many people though, I have been on way less than 5% of the train journeys I historically would have been on during the last 20 months. Maybe it might be less than 10% of the 2019 journey norm next year, but suffice to say Trainline should not be getting too excited.

Trainline (#TRN) – H1 still a loss, argues trading now recovering

Trainline (#TRN) – Q2 net ticket sales recovered to 71% of pre-pandemic period, net debt £169m

Trainline (#TRN) – emphasises ticket sales recovery trajectory, confidence in prospects. Hmmm

Trainline (#TRN) – FY pre-tax loss £107m on revenue -74%, £260m “liquidity headroom”

Trainline (#TRN) – FY revenue -74%, c.£260m liquidity headroom

Trainline (#TRN) – £150m convertible bonds offering, including to “provide additional liquidity”

SHOCKER: Trainline just how much contempt does it have for its customers and how much profit does it make from very dodgy partners?

Thanks to Covid, Trainline (TRN) is pretty screwed and will stay so for a good while. Indeed with leading law firms and others today announcing that 50% of staff days post any lockdown would be at home, the amount of business travel post lockdown is going to crater. The face to face business meeting is like the horse drawn taxi or funny BBC comedies using words like frog, things of the past. Even in pre Covid times, Trainline generated sod all cash. But how did it make that cash?

Trainline, now the CFO is dumping shares and he’s right, the valuation is nutso

There was a telling exchange in a Downing Street press Conference this week between Jonathan Van Tam and the deputy PM Boris Johnson. The real PM, Princess Nut Nuts, was elsewhere plotting the Long march to a full green revolution. Van Tam suggested that Covid restrictions such as face nappy wearing and social distancing might need to stay in place, essentially, forever. The deputy PM said that he was not so sure about that and it might be good to get back to normal at some point. Cue frosty glances.