UK 22:50 Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Breaking news and expert analysis on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
If you’ve ever played poker you will know the worst thing that can happen to a bad player, who doesn’t understand the mechanics or maths of the game, is to win a reasonably large amount early in his or her playing days. Invariably such people convince themselves they have unlocked the secrets of the game and are invincible, rather than recognise the luck of the draw. Our lucky winner invariably ends up giving back his or her winnings to the table and a whole load more to boot. Bust and demoralised, such people often have trouble understanding what’s gone wrong, having made such a profitable start. They remain obstinately unaware of the importance of playing the long term odds, certain in the knowledge they must be right, even though they’ve lost all their money. Exactly the same principle applies to gamblers on AIM stocks, especially those in the resource sector.
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Comments
Titus
Ben,
excellent tactic. So to be profitable, I bet you need people to sell and try to get back in around 40p?
Ben Turney
@Titus what a boring comment. Sure if Bowleven drops to 40p I’d look at it again, but it is utterly foolish not to bank a 50% gain.
Titus
Hi Ben,
Sure, provided you want to walk away with the 50% gain and not invest in BLVN again. Otherwise, any buyback from 40p onwards look silly.
wildrides
very good advice Ben . It is just like you say it. I once witnessed a bloke put his and his wifes life savings on one share . Over £50,000 . Loads of folk tried to talk him out of it, but he was so convinced from early gains on that share that it would set him up for life . That share eventually went bust …….. but he got out prior to that event, thankfully with out a big loss apart from sleep. So scary . My motto on aim is :- when the RNS news stream stops ……SELL
And I mean real news flow not “placing hype” news flow.
Ben Turney
@Titus – if I’d said sell out with a view to buying back at 40p, I’d agree. However, that isn’t what I said.
I said I’d look at it again. If the stock continues higher from here then fair enough, but I have no problem leaving money on the table for the next player.
If it pulls back I’d gauge the market response before deciding whether or not to buy back in. As I said in my piece, I can see the logic for staying in or even buying in at this stage, but it isn’t as compelling as the logic of a banked 50%
@wildrides – your friend is very lucky. I know stories of people who have staked the lot on an AIM stock, believed all the BS of certain executives and lost the lot. There also are a few stocks I can think of where people have obviously staked far too much. This market is a ravenous beast of the unsuspecting’ live savings
Titus
Hi Ben, It is my fault to misunderstood your post. Everyone has their own trading plan and we should stick to it.
I bought in this share in March around 31p. I trade for a living and 47p high today is not a good price to sell yet (personally) and of course I am not waiting for a sp of 80p either. I take chances but I dont gamble.
Ben Turney
@Titus – apologies if I sounded arsey. I’ve stupidly allowed myself to allow some foolish Tweeters to bother me and I am in a bit of a fighting mood today.
I do take your point about closing out and it sounds like you’ve made an excellent trade on this. I’ll be honest and admit one aspect of my trading strategy I continue to wonder about is whether or not I close too early and don’t let my winners ride.
I think my mentality is slightly victim to that quote from “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” of being “fearful when I should be greedy, and being greedy when I should be fearful”.
In the case of BLVN, I think you could be proven right. As I said in my piece the market cap v. the projected value of the farm-out + the other assets, including 25% of Etinde looks like it strengthens your argument. However, the resistance at the placement price of 45p, looks like it could be significant in the coming days