Xtract Resources - the promises just do not add up

Comments

RTN

10 January 2016, 04:46

Come on Tom. At least use your real name instead of hiding behind a pseudonym ;)
I think it’s because you’ve got little confidence in your story personally.
Tom Winnifrith

10 January 2016, 06:42

RTN

Fraid you are wrong. If I stick the knife into a PLC I always take 100% credit. Cynical is a new writer on this website

T
RTN

10 January 2016, 07:16

I’ll take your word for it Tom – just sounds very similar to you if you ask me – so if it’s really not you then apologies ;)
This chap does sound like he’s just on a bit of a whinge, having sold at the lows (be fairly nuts to be furious about it otherwise as stated in the article!), and doesn’t appear to like seeing the stock rising back nicely.
Outofthefurnace

10 January 2016, 07:22

Well don’t invest then as you state in your final sentence. You use a swear word which is pretty bad of you. Hardly professional. You completely ignore the fact we are close to finalising Manica and made significant headway to acquire that. You ignore the manica alluvials due to come on stream soon and you ignore all the copper mines in South Africa. You make sweeping statements to conveniently dismiss all those other mining projects. The timing of your article could not be more ill timed – at a sad time when 2 deaths have occurred for which XTR was actually cleared by the mining inspectorate that xtr was not at fault and also the fact you chose to release this article at a time when the xtr share price was rising. it’s true chepica has not performed as expected but to make a scene out of it right now when xtr shareholders might be on the up was a ludicrous ill timed article.
Cynical Bear

10 January 2016, 07:23

RTN – no just an old-fashioned Investor who thinks one should be able to believe what is in an RNS
Drunken Sailor

10 January 2016, 07:37

CB,

I enjoyed your articles. It is obvious you are not Tom as there were no obvious typos. I fully agree check the track records of management and be wary of those who keep changing their story. It is worth seeing if you can independently verify any of the bad luck stories, deaths and earthquakes normally make the news somewhere and can be found online. If they are just making up the 7 plagues of Egypt like Asian Citrus do then that is a slam dunk reason to sell.

I am not invested in any of the stocks you have written about and I am not interested in investing in them, but if I were then I would do exactly the sort of research you have done before piling in..
Rob

10 January 2016, 07:38

“There are countless examples of insufficient commitment by CEOs but I won’t focus on that here”
That is a downright dishonest piece of journalism. You imply that the CEO may have dirty secrets, but you are going to look at other issues. Either state what you know about the CEO or withdraw the insinuation.
Cynical Bear

10 January 2016, 07:55

@Drunken Sailor – thanks for the feedback
@Rob – I think you are misinterpreting that sentence.

My point is that many CEOs on AIM either earn too much for what they do and/or don’t buy in sifficiently themselves.

It is not intending to imply anything with regard to Jan or XTR.

This piece is solely about the question of trust and whether one can believe what a CEO says in an RNS.
wildrides

10 January 2016, 08:43

Shorting this stock would seem to me to be extremely foolhardy given the BB following it seems to have and the track record of such a following in displaying logic with their investment decisions . You are sadly mistaken if you think AIM is present to promote honesty and value . Its only purpose is to allow every shite outfit under the sun to raise money for their embryonic business and try and make a go of it . The failure rate is always going to be mega high . Its the AIM investors job to try and spot the one in ten companies that might prosper longer term and its the AIM traders job to try and ride the temporary momentum created, thus providing the necessary liquidity for such a market to work . BUYER BEWARE is the required mindset . For the best ideas to succeed then others have to fail or there is not ever going to be enough capital to go around . Quit moaning and dont buy the shite . Simples.
RTN

10 January 2016, 09:37

Drunken Sailor – The bulletin board people disparaged so often on this site have discussed all of the points in this article, at length, most of them months ago. It’s old hat, and hardly very balanced, when, largely speaking, most of the rant can be explained by a falling gold price, major earthquake, and accident the company has been deemed not to be at fault for!

The reason people are giving him not giving him credit is:
a) Because it’s old news/commentary that’s been done to death
b) It’s poorly regurgitated and focusing purely on the negatives and not remotely balanced
c) Much of the negatives that are droned on about over and over could be largely explained if not completely

I think the vast majority of the investors were not overly enthused by promotional targets around the time money was raised for new projects. This point has been done to death on the boards. I myself wasn’t overjoyed at this and have voiced that too many times to count, both at the time and whenever things like this surface. I can however see the rationale for doing it despite my displeasure (the quake being a nice reminder why) and think the company is stronger as a result.

So, Tom, when you have a go at bulletin board investors, I think you do yourself a disservice. You must surely be able to understand why people do not appreciate a big long article saying do not invest in their stock which is not in the list bit balanced and largely speaking very old hat for anyone who’s payed any attention to the stock.

Far from providing new insight it’s just an extremely lightweight summary of the situation and akin to reading the Sunday Sport version of a Financial Times article from months ago.

THAT is what riles people ;)
Tom Winnifrith

10 January 2016, 09:40

RTN

This is also classic BB denial “we have heard it all before – nothing new”. If so why get your knickers in such a twist about it?

t
RTN

10 January 2016, 10:00

Denial would be….denying it….which none of the comments really do….:p
I gave the reasons why I don’t think a lot of the article and stated where I agreed I shared some displeasure rather than denying anything!
So no twisted knickers – apart from about all my typos – which are worrying me as I’m trying to write a large report at the moment and does not bode well!
Broker

10 January 2016, 11:14

Read the report from CB. Not a bad piece, more of a copy and paste, then any in-depth analysis, that would have given some meat on the bones for investors.

Always interested in Shareprophets views, as they can give a alternative view, and that can only lead to more research, even if its on a stock one holds.

This recent report has nothing that is ‘unknown’ or a lead into further research, so it is discarded for poor contribution to this sites more sensible reports.

A CEO pumping his own company? A CEO promising X and delivering Y, A CEO raking in a large salary? well you could say that about 99% on AIM companies today. Look forward to a better report in the future, but this new reporter addition to Shareprophets performance to date is poor.

AIMHO of course.

I will be adding XTR to my portfolio tomorrow (just for clarity of my position).
Zak Mir

10 January 2016, 12:27

I called the shares up from 0.2p to 0.5p on a charting basis only – not too much shame in that?
phil

10 January 2016, 13:24

They lied, Sell. No exceptions
Elrico

10 January 2016, 13:38

Cynical Bear – For what it’s worth, I found both the articles you wrote good read, brief and to the point and not bloated with noise of no consequence. Unfortunately, the gimps of this World take any negative news, no matter the author is often met with personal attacks, often immature slurs and rarely offer a reasoned response. These type of investors, speculators rarely if ever make money in the long term. I look forward to your next article.
Eyeguy

10 January 2016, 14:00

Don’t hold xtr and will not be adding.
The article is perhaps a bit harsh considering what is happening in this sector. At the moment is there actually any mining stock making any cash? The ones that survive and ride this out are the ones likely to do well when the prices recover and sentiment returns.
But for me Kefi is king of the goldies
filthy lucre

10 January 2016, 15:56

Tom Winnifrith aka Cynical Bear
Tom Winnifrith

10 January 2016, 16:02

Filthy aka moron with a brain the size of a pea

a) no typos :)
b) Since when have I ever not written in my name & why would I start now?

Get a life you sad motherfucker

t
nahkit

10 January 2016, 21:13

8 April 2015 – Milling capacity Increased to 10,000 tonnes / month. More positive news about the progress at Chepica – great

25 June 2015 – Chepica is also on target to achieve throughput of 10,000t by September 2015 (as per pre-fundraising commitments to investors) Hmmm, you told us you had achieved this on 8 April 2015 but never mind.

Surely these are two different things?

The way I read it is that on the 8th of April they announced that the machinery in place could now handle a maximum 10,000 tonnes /month, they didn’t say that they were producing that much.

The June announcement says they should be producing the max. amount they can mill per month by September.

Don’t see any lies being told there.
Broker

11 January 2016, 00:25

Some people, including Cynical bear cannot read a RNS.

On the 8th April the RNS declared CAPACITY at Chepica had increased the milling to 10,000/t, NOT that it was doing 10,000/t a month. This is where the so called expert has it wrong, there is a difference, and if CB cannot understand what capacity and actual production means, then who are we to explain it.

Here is a extract from the April RNS, maybe someone can highlight where it says the mine was producing 10,000/t a month:

Xtract Resources Plc (AIM:XTR) has increased the monthly milling capacity at the Chepica Gold and Copper Mine (“Chepica”) in Chile from 6,000t/month to 10,000t/month through the installation and commissioning of a new ball mill.

This is CB statement:

Chepica is also on target to achieve throughput of 10,000t by September 2015 (as per pre-fundraising commitments to investors) Hmmm, you told us you had achieved this on 8 April 2015 but never mind – those profitability numbers are great – See more at: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/17827/xtract-resources-the-promises-just-do-not-add-up#cpreview

Lazy journo, or simply a industry that Cynical Bear does not understand, and is simply a copy and paste punter.
Cynical Bear

11 January 2016, 00:42

@Elrico – thanks
@Nahkit – fair point, one could interpret it that way
Drunken Sailor

11 January 2016, 02:03

Clearly an excellent article as it has provoked both thought and debate and for the most part that debate has added to understanding – that is what it is all about and what all share sites that allow ordinary investor participation should be about. Sadly most BB are just about abuse and denial. If the XTR threads are sensible then you are very lucky to have such a rare jewel – don’t allow the usual arseholes to screw it up for you. (Will it make the top 10 this week?)

The only people responsible for ones investing decisions is oneself. For me the H1 ramp not matching the H1 revenue (which I think does justify a “what the fuck”) is what would put me off, if I was interested in the first place.

If this sort of thing is repeated across other projects and in the future, then Bargepole status is justified. If it is a one off, then it is something to watch out for if you do take the plunge.
RTN

11 January 2016, 02:06

Cynical Bear – One could interpret it that way? If you need explanation as to what capacity means then I suggest you buy a dictionary, or Google it, or ask a 12 year old. All of them should be able to tell you what it means. It’s not what you appear to think.
Then again, if you’re going to write a completely unbalanced article, why not put words in the company’s mouth and then slate them for it.
I stick by my viewpoint that this article is at best an example of the very worst sort of journalism or at worst a deliberate slight on the company by a disgruntled investor.
tomr58

11 January 2016, 02:32

I thought great analysis. I like your reviews of the three companies you covered ( challenger seems to be having a bad day). I look forward to your next pieces, and also any buy views which you evolve.
bob brush

11 January 2016, 03:05

Wow, its quite remarkable the criticism here. this is exactly the sort of personal and denialist reaction to a negative review that the BB’s are famous for. All you guys criticising him are totally missing the point, deliberately misleading, whatever, it doesn’t matter. these excuses etc. are irrelevant and let me explain why.

- ‘this has all been discussed on the bb before so you should post about it’ This is moronic, obviously very few people would be willing to trawl back through months of nonsense on the bb if they were researching a company. so for anyone considering this stock now, a summary is usefull. IRRELEVANT
- ‘The author ignores all the good stuff about the company and isn’t balanced, thus he is poor journalist’ Rubbish. the article doesn’t pretend to be a company review, it is a concise analysis of one issue with the RNS that can be used to prove the company was misleading investors before a big fund raising. IRRELEVANT
- ‘This is just TW in disguise, therefore ignore him’ TW doesn’t hide his identity, he revels in it. attempting to undermine the article on this basis is IRRELEVANT
- ‘The company wasn’t lying, the figure were affected by the deaths, gold price and earthquake’ Bullshit of the highest order. the gold price wasn’t falling fast and are you seriously saying that deaths in December and an earthquake in September affected the jan,feb,march results? Are you serious? WOW, even for BB morons, that’s moronic. the RNS’s from the pre-fundraising were materially incorrect compared to the later ones. IRRELEVANT

And finally the worst excuse of all: ‘Yeah ok the company was misleading investors but its ok because everyone was doing it’. It shouldn’t require explanation as to why this excuse is the worst. morons.

*to make sure I am ‘balanced’ yes the author has misunderstood the difference between capacity and throughput. CB this isn’t a matter of interpretation, its just fact! However it wasn’t the main point the article hinged on, which was the mispreorting of cashflow and profit so the point of the article remains that any potential investors who don’t want to invest in a company where the RNS’s mislead investors with untruths should be warned.

Thank you mr bear, don’t be put off by the standard cultist ‘attack dissenters’ attitude.
wildrides

11 January 2016, 04:12

Bob the broom ,
You need to brush up chap . The point is that shorting is fecking risky and encouraging people to short borderline ( at best ) cases like this is rather lamentable given that losses are unlimited . One piece of good news could spike this POS to the stars and wipe out the unwary . The reason there are not any other sites that focus on the bear case is because of the extreme risk of bear positions especially with leverage . Bear tack tips need to be very well considered because of this because people will go and do it ! This particular tip is not in that category . It could easily go either way .
Tom Winnifrith

11 January 2016, 04:14

Wildes

But the article does not advise shorting, merely a warning not to hold. #factcheck over at the SS LGO-Titanic

t
alcira16247

11 January 2016, 04:33

CB

Welcome!

Interesting, thought provoking, insightful informative articles – with bone dry humour, love it! More please!
bob brush

11 January 2016, 06:41

Wildrides

Wonderful! I do love it when someone manages to put their entire foot in their mouth. I can lend you a brush to do your own brushing up if you want?

As TW says there was no mention of shorting or even selling (embarrassing eh?), I wouldn’t short this stock as you say, the way I read this it was advice not to buy because its too risky to buy in a company where this sort of thing goes on. as you can see from his first article (if you read that one) is that CB doesn’t like all these crap AIM companies luring in private investors. CB (and TW) is providing the foil to that behaviour by warning them. People dismiss this sort of ‘don’t buy’ advice but I regard it as hugely usefull. people doing research on a stock will find links to such an article and read it and can then investigate the RNs themselves. Share tips are not as black and white as short/buy, there is a ‘do nothing’ decision too which from a risk/value point of view is useful. this is something all the TW detractors don’t understand, but then if they did understand risk they wouldn’t be backing all these crap stocks.

I have never shorted a share in my life, never will, i read these simply to know which companies I might want to avoid. All the best
Gary Newman

11 January 2016, 06:56

Wildrides,
To be fair CB hasn’t said to short it and i do agree with you on the point you’re making with regards the risk of shorting – there are plenty of AIM cos which i don;t like and think will drop but most I wouldn’t short due to sentiment/hype on the illiquid ones meaning it could be very painful if you were short even if you were ultimately right! Was one reason last week i covered WEB as one to sell and take profit if you were lucky enough to have bought anywhere near the lows – I was pretty sure it would drop (was 2.5p then, around 2p today) but wouldn’t short something that volatile that can move up silly amounts on a few hundred quids worth of buys.
Personally i generally avoid shorting AIM cos, other than maybe the odd larger one, as often the risk/reward doesn’t make it worthwhile, even if you are in fact right about it being over-valued junk in many cases!
Peter

11 January 2016, 10:28

looks like another promise on chepica gone wrong, mine is fully closed according to media, wheres xtr rns???????? the inspectorate went to the mine last thursday

The Authority said that along with the direction of the work and transparent Government went to the mine last Thursday in order to determine with which elements of security was working.
“Product of this audit identified deficiencies with regard to safety in different areas of the mine. This is not only in the place where the accident occurred but also in the laboratory, in the accesses that have each of these sites of slaughter, and in the same pit, at the mine. As a result of having found these deficiencies, the Labour Inspectorate decided to suspend operations at all mine”, the Authority said. With respect to the duration of this suspension, Marcelo Conde said that “should last while the company solve problems that were detected.” There are some problems that are more or less easy to solve, and others not so much “. On the other hand, according to the seremi, any fines that the Directorate of labour may take the company will determine next week as part of a “comprehensive report” on the mining safety.
hxxp://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=hxxp%3A%2F%2Fwww.diarioelcentro.cl%2F%3Fq%3Dnoticia%26id%3D29839
wildrides

11 January 2016, 17:37

Cyanide Bear ,

My mistake I thought by your pen name you were a real bear and not a pretend one who has never shorted …….ever ……… oh deary me . How silly of me . Cant see how you make any money being a bear and not shorting tho ………… you must be a fully paid up member of Whining Froths “Global Shorting Conspiracy” with benefits . We call them de rampers in the trade . Did Whining Froth ever tell you his great story about his wonder tip Teathers (TEA) . My Titanic is at least still afloat . Oh and his story about FASTJET ………. the short of the year by Baby Bear which just keeps on going up ……….. oh what fun . Did you get a nice low entry into Xtract ? or was it like pulling teeth ? We had a writer on here once who had not sold a share for five years ……… only bought . Not quite as good as a bear thats never shorted but nearly ;-)
Cynical Bear

12 January 2016, 01:50

Thanks for the warm welcome Wildrides

For the record I go both long and short on different stocks depending on the opportunity just like many investors, not that it’s really any of your business.
wildrides

12 January 2016, 03:29

Cyanide Bear,
If you write on here then its everyones business and you have to declare it ……….. but for the record ……… I had you mixed up with Mr Brush . Apple ogies for that . Too many G&T,s I expect , for which there is no excuse . Saying that …… we dont know what your position in the industry is . What we do know is that you dont want it revealed . As such obviously I am sure you will be abiding to this regulatory framework :-

Insider trading is a criminal offence. A person will be guilty of insider trading if:

a) that person possesses information in relation to a company which is not generally available to the market, and if it were generally available to the market, would be likely to affect the price or value of that company’s securities (i.e. information that is “price sensitive”); and

b) that person:

(i) buys or sells securities in the company;

(ii) procures someone else to buy or sell securities in the company; or

(iii) passes on that information to a third party where that person knows, or ought reasonably to know, that the third party would be likely to deal in the securities or procure someone else to deal in the securities of the company.

Hugs & Kisses
Your bear loving WR
Cynical Bear

12 January 2016, 06:06

Wildrides – apology accepted and point taken. For the avoidance of doubt I take the regulatory side of things extremely seriously and have no problem making the declaration at the top of the article.
Jsimbo

12 January 2016, 11:39

Wildrides, I don’t know what your point is and your agenda and I don’t want to turn this into a crap BB type thread with everyone shouting at each other but since this article is an analysis of publicly available information there is no danger of any insider information so lecturing the author on it is very aggressive and rude, as was most of your other posting. It is also not required for the author to disclose his positions or share strategy in general except for this particular stock. so what if he is anonymous? You refer to people who have negative opinions of stocks as ‘known as de-rampers in the trade’. what trade? the BBs are not a trade mate and only in that mad self-delusional enclosed world does having a negative opinion make you some sort of ‘baddie’.

You question the value of negative articles for people who don’t short, like me, but It is surely obvious? if I am thinking of investing in a company, and I do some research, and that research turns up and article like this one which shows that the share is high risk, then I avoid a potential loss. this saves me money and improves my overall return on average for my portfolio. CB benefit’s because he gets paid for the article by customers of and advertisers on this website. Seriously, what’s not to understand? its really very simple mate. ease off on the G and T’s and it will become clearer.
wildrides

12 January 2016, 14:45

Simbo ………. your questions answered:-

simples ………. Whining Froth said he/she was a professional who could not reveal his real name because it would be detrimental regards his/her position . Just making sure we are on the same page regarding insider issues ……… seems as we indeed are, so all is good under the hood. You may not be aware that there are professional teams of de rampers whose job is to spread negative sentiment on BB and all other media in order for coordinated shorting to reap maximum reward . The converse is also true .
For your information from time to time inside information is revealed on this site and most others …… most usual is relaying of conversations had with insiders such as directors or management which are then re told . The thing is NOTHING should come forward from insiders that has not been in an RNS or company official release . If it does then we are part of the AIM corruption problem and not part of the solution . Using the title “Bear” comes with the tacit understanding that person is trading short or acting for shorters . A long trader writing a warning / avoidance piece would not normally style themselves “Bear” . I trust you find the above enlightening as regards your enquiry .

/

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Xtract Resources - the promises just do not add up

By Cynical Bear

10 January 2016 02:35

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