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EPIC code: WPCT

Woodford Patient Capital Trust: The Big Short (Chapter 5): Conclusion – the perfect short?

By Cynical Bear | Monday 25 December 2017

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I’m going to draw together my analysis on Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) in one piece now so that if you’ve actually been enjoying Christmas rather than reading Shareprophets, you can start here and work backwards. I will also add a few words of caution that I picked up from the book “The Big Short” itself.

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Market News

PPP
Pennpetro Energy (#PPP) – “taking advice to ensure it is staying within its solvency parameters” and to “address and investigate actions of previous directors”
 20 December 2024, 07:59
TIR
Tiger Royalties & Investments (#TIR) – arrival of chancer Jonathan Bixby with proposed strategy change and £3m fundraise at 0.1p per share
 20 December 2024, 07:59
SNG
Synairgen (#SNG) – conditionally raises £18m at 2p per share and seeking to raise up to £19m total
 20 December 2024, 07:57
CEL
Celadon Pharmaceuticals (#CEL) – reckons now sufficient funds to February, extending to March on an outstanding £0.25m of credit actually being received
 20 December 2024, 07:53
GEX
Georgina Energy (#GEX) – “Operational Update”, some attempted ramptastic even though arguing some “challenges from severe weather”
 20 December 2024, 07:53
SOM
Somero (#SOM) – CEO Jack Cooney to retire and Chairman Larry Horsch to “step down”, confident of FY results “in line with market expectations”
 20 December 2024, 07:45
HEAD
Headlam (#HEAD) – sells properties for, ex-VAT, £53.9m, noting material premiums to book value and market valuation
 20 December 2024, 07:40
AAU
Ariana Resources (#AAU) – proposed Australia dual-listing delayed to H1 next year as “continues to work through the remaining requirements”
 20 December 2024, 07:34
NMT
Neometals (#NMT) – “sustainable process technology developer” proposed AIM cancellation as “concluded… is not delivering sufficient value for shareholders”
 20 December 2024, 07:30
AMCO
Amcomri (#AMCO) – ‘buy, improve, build’ UK-focused engineering services and industrial manufacturing group raises £12m at 55p per share joining the AIM casino
 20 December 2024, 07:27

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Amcomri (#AMCO) – ‘buy, improve, build’ UK-focused engineering services and industrial manufacturing group raises £12m at 55p per share joining the AIM casino

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SRP

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BIOM

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CRTA

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Friday »

AURR

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AAU

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CDGP

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PMP

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KOS

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SENX

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VRS

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BOO

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ELEG

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PMP

Portmeirion (#PMP) – profit warning due to supply delays and continued destocking and challenging market conditions

 

RSG

Resolute Mining (#RSG) – board changes as CEO Terry Holohan takes “leave of absence”, company “continues to engage with the Government of Mali” re. new Protocol

 

CDGP

Chapel Down (#CDGP) – appointment of James Pennefather as CEO and resignations of CFO Rob Smith and NED Stewart Gilliland, current trading “strong”

 

IPX

Impax Asset Management (#IPX) – notice of termination of mandate on c.£5.2bn AUM at end-Nov Sustainable & Responsible Equity Fund

 

WHI

W.H. Ireland (#WHI) – H1 another loss, emphasises cost reductions as now looks to return Wealth Management business to break-even

Thursday »

Bearcast

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TAND

Tan Delta Systems – trading warning, and not its first despite only listing on AIM in August last year!

 

SBTX

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AURR

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AVCT

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SBTX

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STEM

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TM1

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VRS

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AURR

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PMG

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SQZ

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RWS

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DWHT

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CURY

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STEM

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VANL

Van Elle (#VANL) – H1 update, argues continues to expect FY in line with market consensus but “second half weighted”

 

CARR

Carr's (#CARR) – FY adj. EPS 2.6p, DPS maintained, emphasises “refreshed Agriculture strategy”

 

NWF

#NWF – H1 operating growth “in line with board expectations”, FY expectations unchanged

Wednesday »

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Yellow Cake – interims, a growth potential and value Buy

 

RM

RM plc – argues “ahead of market expectations”, but how much of an achievement here is that?

 

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STG

Strip Tinning – argues “delighted to announce” contracted nominations increase, but how ‘delightful’ really?…

 

ORCP

Oracle Power: for all of the Lenigas ramping look where we are now!

 

CRTA

Cirata: this really does not wash, yet another red flag!

 

AFRN

Aferian – “Trading Update”, now why may it be “immediate effect” new broker appointment?

 

TM1

BREAKING: Technology Minerals – the FRC investigation, for useless old TW yet another GOTCHA!

 

Gold

Video: Gold – The Monetary Hitching Post of the Universe, buy platinum and palladium too!

 

OPTI

BREAKING: Amazing Morepen video, the truth about Skins share sales, FYB with Optibiotix

 

GKP

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (#GKP) – 'Operational & Corporate Update', “continues to engage with government stakeholders” re. a restart of crude exports

 

AFRN

Aferian (#AFRN) – argues “progress” including $2.4m net debt reduction but it still $12.5m, appointment of Zeus Capital as Nomad and broker

 

PROC

ProCook (#PROC) – H1 increased loss, argues “outperforming a subdued market”

 

BOOM

Audioboom (#BOOM) – “ahead of current market expectations”, but again emphasising “adjusted EBITDA”

 

RM

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OPT

Optima Health (#OPT) – H1 adjusted earnings fall, argues “a strong pipeline”

 

BILN

Billington (#BILN) – expects 2024 “ahead of current market expectations” after “continued strong delivery in the second half”

 

CHRT

Cohort (#CHRT) – H1 adj. EPS up to 20p, DPS to 5.25p, “continued strong order intake has driven a record closing order book”

 

FAN

Volution (#FAN) – four months revenue slightly up, “adjusted operating margin has again improved”

 

BATS

British American Tobacco (#BATS) – H2 acceleration in line with expectations, “on track” to deliver FY guidance

Tuesday »

DGI

DG Innovate – “pleased to announce” placing, but how ‘pleasing’ is it really?…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: is that a margin call I see Ms Binkowska?

 

MEX

Tortilla Mexican Grill – emphasises “gained further momentum in the UK”, BUT…

 

GGP

Greatland Gold – acquisition and first gold pour completion, Buy

 

ORCP

Four Critical signs that Oracle Power is lining up a deeply discounted bucket shop placing

 

Bear

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DNM

Dianomi – after in May arguing “well placed to drive scale and profitability”, what about its near year-end “Trading Statement”?…

 

Crime-Scene

VINDICATION (sort of): The FRC slams Crowe and its CEO over the Akazoo fraud but it lets Deloitte off the hook: this is a fail for the watchdog

 

EPP

Evil Banksta on a very odd loan drawdown by EnergyPathways : just adds to the stink

 

APTA

Aptamer – share options and directors shares purchases announcements, attempted ramptastic?…

 

AHT

Ashtead (#AHT) – H1 adj. EPS -5% to $2.136, DPS $0.36, “proposed move to a US primary listing”

 

MEX

Tortilla Mexican Grill (#MEX) – emphasises gained momentum in UK, but overall FY trading “in line with management expectations”

 

WINE

Naked Wines (#WINE) – H1 loss, argues “currently experiencing solid trading during the peak season period”

 

MOON

Moonpig (#MOON) – H1 adj. EPS up to 6.1p, DPS 1p, trading “in line with our expectations”

 

SOLI

Solid State (#SOLI) – H1 adj. EPS down to 17.5p, DPS to 0.83p, emphasises “improvement in order books since the period end”

 

PRV

Porvair (#PRV) – expects FY adj. EPS “marginally ahead of market expectations”

 

CNA

Centrica (#CNA) – expects FY “broadly in line with analyst consensus”, extends share buyback programme by £300m

 

BEG

Begbies Traynor (#BEG) – H1 adj. EPS up to 5.1p, DPS to 1.4p, states “supportive market conditions and good activity levels”

 

FGP

FirstGroup (#FGP) – agreement to acquire London bus operator RATP London for £90m Enterprise Value

 

GAW

Games Workshop (#GAW) – agreement with Amazon for films and tv series and associated merchandising, though films and tv “production processes… may take a number of years”

Monday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: I wish I knew what Luke Johnson was selling today, here are my two sell tips for Tim

 

PAT

VSA Initiates on Panthera at 7.5p, BUY target 40p

 

TRYB

Tribe Technology – “RC Drilling System Update” attempted ramptastic ahead of bailout fundraising attempt ahoy?

 

Bitcoin

Video: The Debt Doom Loop and the New Era of $4K Gold, $100 Silver, & 200K Bitcoin

 

VRS

Has nobody explained to Versarien owning gerbils what an RNS reach is? Nonsense deal announced

 

WSBN

Wishbone Gold places again – what on earth is the point? Do the maths...

 

CRTA

Cirata: now it really is taking the piss

 

CHLL

Chill Brands statement: does it have no idea at all about its cash position?

 

SPEC

Inspecs – after as recently as September “confident in meeting market expectations”, now “improvement in Q4 sales not having been as strong as anticipated”. Uh oh!…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Hydrogen Utopia demolished and exposed via publicly available documents, where has the five hundred grand gone?

 

CHLL

Chill Brands (#CHLL) – “Company Update”, with FCA “has lodged a request for the continuation of the suspension of its shares”

 

VRS

Versarien (#VRS) – “Distribution Agreement for Graphene Biosensors”, RNS Reach attempted ramptastic

 

TRYB

Tribe Technology (#TRYB) – “has carried out several product demonstrations & presentations of the Sample System”, attempted ramptastic

 

VAL

ValiRx (#VAL) – conditional £1.3m placing and a up to £0.25m “broker offer” at 0.65p per share with warrants

 

W7L

Warpaint London (#W7L) – £1m ‘retail offer’ at 510p per share “very significantly oversubscribed”

 

ANG

Angling Direct (#ANG) – “intends to increase capital investment” and to also commence “up to £4.0m” share buyback programme

 

TAVI

Tavistock Investments (#TAVI) – H1 swing to loss, notes restructured and increased DPS to 0.09p

 

SNX

Synectics (#SNX) – “momentum in the second half of the year across all of its market verticals”, now expects FY “materially ahead of market expectations”

 

BBSN

Brave Bison (#BBSN) – trading “in-line with expectations”, agreement to acquire Engage Digital Partners

 

SPEC

Inspecs (#SPEC) – slower European markets recovery and some larger customers orders deferral trading warning

Sunday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Be careful what you wish for

 

GPM

Golden Prospect – Subscription Rights Failure, Or A Golden Opportunity?

 

Sinking_Ship

AIM Sewer Market Statistics for November 2024 - Yet another disaster and there are even more departures in the pipeline

 

ECOB

Eco Buildings Group proves modular housing business plan is working: STRONG BUY

 

Professor

Visual Aid: Share of Illegal Immigrants Across 9 Developed Countries

 

Gold

The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Suffers Stock And Bitcoin Gains

 

Professor

Sunday Long Reads: World’s Greatest Coffee, Great Abandonment, End of the World, Six Hours of Martial Law, Denying Insurance with AI

 

Quiz

The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #270

 

Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending Dec 7

 

Welsh_Flag

Photo Article: Storm Darragh claims a victim at the Welsh Hovel but every cloud has a silver lining, Tom Winnifrith

 

Welsh_Flag

Photo Article from the Welsh Hovel: Gloriously happy fat cats, Tom Winnifrith

Saturday »

AVCT

Cassava, A warning to Avacta Sharehoders 

 

CEL

Celadon, if this is true the company will blow up

 

Father Christmas

Amid storm Darragh, amazing levels of organisation for Christmas, Tom Winnifrith

Friday »

ALU

Alumasc Group – a growth Buy

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: dash for trash

 

NWOR

National World – “minded to recommend” improved proposal price, but will an offer now be made on those terms?

 

QUIZ

Quiz plc – after poor performance and tight cash position results, what now from a “Trading and Cash Position Update”?…

 

MODE

BREAKING: Jonathan “son of Spotty “ Rowland and Peterhouse when were you going to tell us about the strike off action?

 

BAR

Brand Architekts – recommended offer means c45% (and possibly much more) gains, bank the profits?

 

SBTX

SkinBioTherapeutics – why it should revise its segmental analysis

 

TRAK

TrakM8: Apologies I was too generous

 

ECP

EXPOSE of Eight Capital – repayment of 1AF2 Limited debt, kicking the can down the road amid smoke and mirrors and lying by Supply's Alessandro Zamboni

 

SBTX

SkinBioTherapeutics – full-year results, products potential despite the detraction of its CEO means still a Buy

 

Pig

It’s the fees that count for law firms, morality takes the back seat

 

DLG

Direct Line Insurance (#DLG) – “preliminary agreement” of 275p per share cash and shares offer from Aviva (#AV.)

 

NWOR

National World (#NWOR) – “would be minded to recommend” a 23p per share possible offer proposal

 

FRAS

Frasers (#FRAS) – “intends to launch a voluntary offer for all of the shares in XXL”

 

SDX

#SDX Energy – proposed AIM cancellation

 

CEL

Celadon Pharmaceuticals (#CEL) – “received the balance of £150,000” due from a subscription, that won’t keep the lights on for long though!

 

QUIZ

#QUIZ – sales fall and trading is “behind management expectations”, “existing bank facilities could be fully utilised in the first quarter of 2025”

 

MSI

MS International (#MSI) – H1 EPS +11% to 39.8p, DPS up to 5p, emphasises “encouraged” with progress

 

LIKE

Likewise (#LIKE) – “increasing sales revenue and gross margin… on track to achieve current market expectations”

 

JHD

James Halstead (#JHD) – trading “on track to meet our expectations of continued progress”, “remain positive about the market”

 

BKG

Berkeley Group (#BKG) – H1 EPS -6% to 186.8p, DPS 33p, “on track to deliver profit guidance”

Thursday »

GGP

Greatland Gold – a transformational acquisition Buy

 

APTA

Aptamer – “Technical Update” following soon after AGM update, attempted ramptastic?

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: You have to be sensitive when talking of the recently departed but here goes anyway

 

HEAD

Headlam – argues ‘transformation plan’ “significant early progress”, BUT…

 

Bear

Video: The Vengeful Return of the Pendulum – Geopolitical Shifts, buy gold be very careful elsewhere

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Mr Market the manic depressive, Kefi and TrakM8, the latter is a zero, it is surely insolvent

 

EBQ

Ebiquity – “a stronger H2 than H1… is proving to be the case”, BUT…

 

SBTX

Cavendish on Skinbiotherapeutics: God save us from Ashman as his M&A hunger is not sated

 

AMRQ

Amaroq – now that is what I call a placing: Buy at up to 90p and the shares to double from there

 

ARB

Argo Blockchain End Game: the bond markets tell you that the shares are worth 0p, big moves in the past few days

 

Fake_News

The Daily Mail laps up Ukrainian lies yet again: the North Korean girl fighters, Tom Winnifrith

 

VOD

Vodafone (#VOD) – CMA approves merger with Three in the UK

 

BAR

Brand Architekts (#BAR) – recommended offer of 48p per share with shares alternative from Warpaint London (#W7L)

 

CARD

#CARD Factory – acquisition of Garven for $25m to enter the US, trading “in line with our expectations”

 

FRAS

Frasers (#FRAS) – H1 adj. EPS -5% to 51p, warns as “both ahead of and after the recent Budget, consumer confidence has weakened”

 

WOSG

Watches of Switzerland (#WOSG) – H1 adj. EPS -16% to 18.1p, argues guidance unchanged including “underpinned by sequential trading improvement”

 

EBQ

Ebiquity (#EBQ) – expects 2024 revenue “low single-digit decline”, “below previous expectations”

 

AJB

AJ Bell (#AJB) – FY EPS +23% to 20.34p, DPS +16% to 12.5p, “confident in the outlook”

 

FUTR

Future (#FUTR) – FY adj. EPS -12% to 123.9p, DPS maintained at 3.4p, notes “return to revenue growth in H2”

 

HEAD

Headlam (#HEAD) – argues transformation plan “significant early progress”, but five months to end-November revenue -7.3%

 

BBY

Balfour Beatty (#BBY) – “2024 revenue expected to be c.2% ahead of prior year”, “on track to deliver earnings growth”

Wednesday »

FAB

Fusion Antibodies – “Approval of Grant Funding Application”, shares soar but how justifiably so?…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Am I a really mean, grumpy, old bastard totally out of touch with 2024? You and my siblings can judge

 

OPTI

OptiBiotix Health – poorly-produced “Launch of Dr Morepen” announcement but the potential compelling, Strong Buy

 

IXI

IXICO – full-year results, how much is recent fundraising to ‘accelerate technology platform growth and global commercial reach’?

 

EPP

Letter to Liam Murray re Energypathways: a yes or no answer will suffice

 

KEFI

Convicted Felon says Kefi, at 0.522p, worth 8.68p by 2028

 

KAV

Almost 4 years of Ben Turney at Kavango: the jury is coming in and I call him out for bullshit

 

ZPHR

Zephyr Energy: more bad news Reverend Weight, doing the maths

 

BIOM

Biome Technologies – after a trading warning last month, now a further “Trading Update and Board Change”. Uh oh!…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Amaroq the AIM placing of the year, shares can still double or more from here

 

BMN

Bushveld Minerals (#BMN) – in “Business Rescue proceedings”, now Chairman Michael Kirkwood and CEO Craig Coltman “have resigned… with immediate effect”

 

ARB

Argo Blockchain (#ARB) – “November Operational Update”, bottom-line financial information dare not speak its name (natch!)

 

IQE

#IQE – completes sale of Pennsylvania site, to receive “$2.5m immediately and a further $3.0m before the end of the year”

 

ENET

Ethernity Networks (#ENET) – placing raises just £130,028 at 0.133p per share

 

AMRQ

Amaroq Minerals (#AMRQ) – completes placing for £27.5m at 86p per share

 

ECOB

Eco Buildings (#ECOB) – “€1m in revenues now achieved as of 2 December… ahead of schedule”

 

PMI

Premier Miton (#PMI) – FY adj. EPS down to 6.3p, DPS maintained at 6p, notes “more difficult period for active managers”

 

MEGP

ME Group (#MEGP) – “continued growth in H2… in line with the board's expectations”

 

ZIG

Zigup (#ZIG) – H1 adj. EPS down to 28.1p, DPS +6% to 8.8p, notes “lower disposal and Claims and Services profits”

 

TET

Treatt (#TET) – FY adj. EPS +7% to 24.5p, DPS +5% to 8.41p, argues “poised to accelerate growth”

Tuesday »

MIND

Mind Gym – interims including “the business has returned to profitability”. Er, no it hasn’t!

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: who do you want as this year's Christmas carol villain?

 

VNET

Vianet – argues interims “in line with management expectations”, but that actually meaning very demanding second half requirements!

 

SYS

SysGroup – interims arguing “further strengthening our financial stability”. Er, what about the profit (lack of) warning then?

 

CRTA

Cirata – surely a trading statement warranted?

 

SOS

Collapsing retail sales and collapsing business confidence: who does Rachel from Customer services blame? Maggie knew who!

 

WPHO

Windar Photonics – having three weeks ago stated “a strong balance sheet”, now a discounted placing including to “strengthen the company's balance sheet”!

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: a short email from 'arry Adams and a long chat with Steve O'Hara

 

SYME

BREAKING Supply@Me Capital: another rat jumps from the sinking ship

 

Tom

Tom Winnifrith: will you join me at what really will be the final Sharestock?

 

Tom

Excruciating embarrassment at the Service station, but I will continue to stand up for Israel, Tom Winnifrith

 

KEFI

#KEFI Gold & Copper – confirms £10.6m capital raise at 0.55p per share

 

OPTI

OptiBiotix Health (#OPTI) – upcoming launch of “multiple” products under Dr Morepen's newly-developed LightLife brand in India

 

MARS

Marston's (#MARS) – FY adj. EPS up to 5.2p, current year first 6 weeks LFL sales +3.9%

 

OTB

On the Beach (#OTB) – FY adj. EPS up to 14.1p, DPS 3p, confident in delivering growth outlook

 

SSPG

SSP (#SSPG) – FY adj. EPS up to 10p, DPS to 3.5p, “focus now is on driving greater value from a strengthened base”

 

WIZZ

#WIZZ Air – November booked passengers +1.7% YoY, load factor +3.1ppts to 91.5%

 

GNC

Greencore (#GNC) – FY adj. EPS up to 12.7p, DPS reintroduced at 2p, “encouraged by the business's underlying momentum”

 

MIND

#MIND Gym – H1 still even adj. loss, FY outlook “unchanged, with actions taken to eliminate further costs”

 

GHH

Gooch & Housego (#GHH) – FY adj. EPS down to 25.5p though DPS edged up to 13.2p, argues profit growth confidence this year

 

DSCV

discoverIE (#DSCV) – H1 adj. EPS -4% to 18.4p, DPS +4% to 3.90p, currently “orders run rate ahead of sales and ahead of the second quarter”

Monday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith bonus bearcast: Kefi placing, was I lied to and should we bail or buy via Primary Bid?

 

TPT

Topps Tiles – what of its response to “disastrous acquisition”, “failure to adapt to an evolving retail landscape” and other ‘Comment’?…

 

Clown

A failed and disgraced fund manager explains his art of stockpicking

 

CNR

Condor Gold – one possible offeror announces it doesn’t intend to make a firm offer, but another announces proposed terms…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: a day of total shame for the FCA and glory for Jim Mellon

 

EPP

Evil Banksta: a SECOND critical question for EnergyPathways

 

RTOP

GOTCHA! RegTech Open Project to delist, next stop administration?

 

GBP

Global Petroleum: the twitter ramping of CEO Omar Ahmad, does Nomad SPARK not give a FF?

 

GAMA

Gamma Communications move to Main Market, a hammer blow for the AIM sewer

 

ARB

BREAKING EXPOSE: Argo Blockchain rejects more money at higher price for stinking subscription that still leaves it insolvent

 

Clown

Andrew Monk and the myth of the impoverished bankster caption contest

 

GAMA

Gamma Communications (#GAMA) – initiated workstreams to move from AIM to Main Market

 

MTL

Metals Exploration (#MTL) – “in advanced-stage discussions” with Condor Gold (#CNR) re. a possible offer for Condor

 

CNR

Condor Gold (#CNR) – Calibre Mining “does not intend to make an offer for Condor”

 

ARB

Argo Blockchain (#ARB) – £4.2m subscription at 5.5p per share

 

BOO

boohoo (#BOO) – repayment of £50m of £97m term loan following recent placing

 

TAVI

Tavistock Investments (#TAVI) – receipt of £22m of disposal proceeds, emphasises “repositioning” asset management business

 

MTC

Mothercare (#MTC) – H1 swing to even adj. loss, notes impacted by Middle Eastern markets

 

KBT

K3 Business Technology (#KBT) – agreement to sell NexSys business for £36m, anticipates returning “a substantial proportion” to shareholders during H1 2025

 

SUP

Supreme (#SUP) – acquisition from administration of trade and selected assets of Typhoo Tea for £10.2m

 

FAN

Volution (#FAN) – completes acquisition of Fantech Group in Australasia

Sunday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Now Steve O'Hara really will hate me, is his son worth £100k? And Jim Mellon gets a bid for Condor, don't get carried away

 

VCP

Victoria - The roll up unravels

 

Gold

The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Sees Less Volatility And Trump Threatens BRICS

 

JMAT

Johnson Matthey shares have been very weak but it could turn things around following the restructuring of the business

 

Professor

Sunday Long Reads: Bad Apples, Extreme Travellers, Spanish Water, Rampaging Mobs, DB Cooper

 

Professor

Visual Aid: The UK’s Major Trade Partners in One Chart

 

Quiz

The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #269

 

Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending Nov 30

 

Photo article from the Welsh hovel: cat at work, Tom Winnifrith

Saturday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: when did it become acceptable to tell lies?

 

IRON

Mr. Karma always gets you in the end, Giles Clarke walks the plank at Ironveld after 15 years of massive value destruction

 

Gold

Video: The Gold Miners are Due For a Bubble

 

OPTI

Has Optibiotix sold Skinbiotherapeutics shares? Steve O’Hara declines to deny

 

EPP

EnergyPathways: when you know who you are up against you know it’s a disaster waiting to happen

 

FHP

Doing the Fandango Holdings: joke interims is the FCA totally asleep at the wheel?

 

Price-Vs-Value

ShareProphets readers tips for 2024 prize competition – about to enter final month update

 

Father Christmas

I’m in the wrong business: the price of Christmas trees is insane! Tom Winnifrith

Friday »

CMO

CMO Group – Friday intra-day “Q4 2024 Trading Update and Outlook” announcement. Uh oh…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: on the nature of fraud however small

 

AFN

ADVFN: is a desperate Clem Chambers selling?

 

EPP

Evil Banksta flags up a great twitter thread on EnergyPathways: now a compelling short

 

GoldfishShark

Video: We need a stockmarket crash for miners to perform

 

Labour

When is it okay to be a convicted fraudster and cover it up?

 

VLG

Venture Life Group – growth value: BUY

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith bonus bearcast: what should Father Christmas bring Gary Newman and Lucian Miers this Christmas?

 

AMRQ

Amaroq Minerals – completes its first gold pour at Nalunaq, developing “cash flow generation” BUY with a target of up to 180p

 

RGT

GOTCHA: Lying Charlatans at Argent Pharma flip flop on delisting, shares collapse, TW 100% vindicated yet again

 

TIFS

TI Fluid Systems (#TIFS) – recommended 200p per share offer

 

RGT

Argent Biopharma (#RGT) – GOTCHA!, “intention to delist from the London Stock Exchange”

 

BMN

Bushveld Minerals (#BMN) – not received amount due from Vanchem, the Business Rescue Practitioners “in discussions… including taking legal advice”

 

IES

Invinity Energy Systems (#IES) – appointment of Adam Howard as CFO, good luck chap!

 

MCB

McBride (#MCB) – banking facilities refinancing noting improved terms and conditions and extended maturity

 

RSG

Resolute Mining (#RSG) – second settlement payment under ‘Protocol’, “discussions with the Government of Mali are ongoing to clarify points of the protocol”

 

PEEL

#PEEL Hunt – H1 return to profit, though notes “sentiment in the UK has dipped following the Budget and increased concerns around global trade”

 

APTA

Aptamer (#APTA) – “AGM Statement”, attempted ramptastic with no bottom-line or cash specifics

 

CFYN

Caffyns (#CFYN) – H1 adj. EPS up to 12.2p, DPS maintained at 5p, notes supply concerns due to Government-mandated zero-emission cars targets

 

NTBR

Northern Bear (#NTBR) – H1 EPS up to 8.4p, considers “potential in the second half to trade ahead of strong prior year results and market expectations”

Thursday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Bit political, bit political..I'd rather eat my own toes

 

SCHO

Scholium and AIM: another one set to bite the dust

 

DOCS

Dr. Martens – interims emphasise “in line with expectations… delivering on our strategic objectives”, but how creditable really is that?…

 

HEMO

Hemogenyx: When folks invoke and celebrate my mother’s suicide you know they have lost the argument

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Optibiotix, Skins, what a journalist is meant to do, transparency, Lemming and Gary Newman

 

ELEG

Another AIM disaster: Electric Guitar, the Fat Lady has now started singing

 

AAU

Ariana Resources – further increased Dokwe project prospectivity, BUY

 

HEMO

Hemogenyx owning moron JohnR thinks Tom Winnifrith is a “scumbag” and "disgrace"battlng for team leukemia

 

SBRY

J Sainsbury – further share buyback tranche follows interims, BUY!

 

Buffett

Warren Buffett’s advice on how to leave an estate of staggering wealth without ruining your children

 

LGRS

Loungers (#LGRS) – recommended 310p per share offer with unlisted share alternative

 

SCHO

Scholium (#SCHO) – proposed AIM cancellation, argues its discount to NAV share price has “significantly hampered” growth ability

 

AMRQ

Amaroq Minerals (#AMRQ) – its first gold pour at Nalunaq mine, currently continuing to optimise processing plant and aiming to conduct weekly gold pour

 

THG

#THG – Ingenuity business demerger circular

 

OCDO

Ocado (#OCDO) – from its Erith fulfilment centre Morrisons to “gradually cease deliveries”, to build volumes from both Ocado’s Dordon centre and “in-store fulfilment solution”

 

DOCS

Dr. Martens (#DOCS) – H1 swing to even adj. loss and increased net bank debt but still a dividend!, 0.85p per share

 

ENSI

EnSilica (#ENSI) – AGM update, “expects… to continue to trade in line with consensus market expectations for the financial year to 30 May”

 

MACF

Macfarlane (#MACF) – revenue -4% YoY, “continued challenging market conditions resulting in weaker volumes and lower pricing impacting most sectors”

 

LTHM

James Latham (#LTHM) – H1 EPS down to 50.5p, DPS up to 7.95p, expected signs of market improvement so far “has not materialised”

 

GFRD

Galliford Try (#GFRD) – trading momentum “continued into the new financial year… in line with the board's expectations”

Wednesday »

AML

Aston Martin Lagonda – argues “successful” share and private debt placings mean “now well positioned for growth”. Er, a few points…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the three serpents in the Helium bubble garden of Jerry Keen

 

KETL

Strix – “Trading Update” = Profit Warning (natch!) and has there really been “significant progress” on the balance sheet?…

 

HEMO

Hemogenyx is a short – target 0p

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: greatly cheered by NOT speaking to 'arry Adams or Steve O'Hara

 

RST

Restore plc – ten months trading update, still a recovery Buy

 

BWAP

EXPOSE: BWA Group - a group that doesn’t consolidate its subsidiaries, why accounting policies can materially impact reported results

 

TUNE

Focusrite – full-year results argue “growth when market conditions improve”, but when’s even that likely to be?

 

HEX

BREAKING: Is Helix Exploration boss David Minchin a brazen liar or a reckless fool?

 

ELEG

While my Electric Guitar gently weeps: suspension shocker, Fat Lady on Standby, PKF disgraced!

 

JET

Just Eat Takeaway.com (#JET) – “intention to delist from London Stock Exchange”

 

AML

Aston Martin Lagonda (#AML) – £111m equity raise at 100p per share including via PrimaryBid and £100m additional senior secured notes issuance

 

MAB

Mitchells & Butlers (#MAB) – FY adj. EPS up to 26.4p, “strong start to FY 2025, like-for-like sales of 4.0% in the first seven weeks”

 

KETL

Strix (#KETL) – trading warning, “now expects to report adjusted profit before tax for FY24 in the range of £18m to £19m (on a constant currency basis)”

 

TUNE

Focusrite (#TUNE) – FY adj. EPS down to 18p, DPS maintained at 6.6p, notes continuing macro pressures

 

PETS

#PETS At Home – H1 adj. EPS up to 8.4p, DPS to 4.7p, though FY warning as longer than anticipated subdued pet retail market growth

 

ATG

Auction Technology (#ATG) – FY adj. EPS down to $0.386, argues current trading “positive momentum”

 

EZJ

easyJet (#EZJ) – FY adj. EPS up to 61.3p, DPS to 12.1p, argues “positive” outlook

 

MOTR

Motorpoint (#MOTR) – H1 return to profit, though revenue decrease with “more affordable vehicle mix and price deflation”

 

JD

JD Sports Fashion (#JD.) – completes €520m acquisition of Groupe Courir following European Commission conditional clearance and satisfaction of all other conditions

Tuesday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith bearcast: egg on boat race time but for once not mine!

 

TPT

Topps Tiles – full-year results emphasise “confidence in the medium term outlook”, so what about the current outlook?…

 

SFR

Severfield – from “market conditions are showing signs of improvement” to a ‘market conditions’ profit warning in less than four months, and worse!…

 

Beggar

BREAKING: Peel Hunt warns of £2 billion AIM IHT own goal by Rachel from Customer Services

 

Clown

Does Valuation matter? Ask a failed fund manager

 

SOS

Sosandar – Half Year Results, Big Helping Of Hartley's As More Jam Tomorrow Promised

 

Tumbleweed

MPs and Lords say that the FCA is “incompetent” and “defective” – Pots and Kettles

 

INX

i-nexus Global – proposed AIM cancellation, yet another roll-call of shame on the self-described “world's most successful growth market”!

 

ECR

ECR, the timing is unfortunate

 

Bearcast

Golden Tuesday Bonus Bearcast: News from Amaroq and Ariana

 

INX

i-nexus Global (#INX) – proposed AIM cancellation

 

AAU

Ariana Resources (#AAU) – Dokwe project exploration work delivering several resource growth opportunities

 

VCP

Victoria (#VCP) – H1 swing to even adj. loss, net debt £658.2m

 

SOS

Sosandar (#SOS) – H1 another loss on lower revenue, argues recent “evidence of the performance that we anticipated as customers become accustomed to paying full price”

 

AO

AO World (#AO.) – H1 EPS up to 1.94p, FY adj. PBT guidance “upgraded to between £39m and £44m”

 

IGR

IG Design (#IGR) – H1 adj. EPS down to $0.112, expects H2 profit driven by “business simplification, efficiency and cost-saving initiatives”

 

HFD

Halfords (#HFD) – H1 adj. EPS and DPS maintained at 7.6p and 3p respectively, “H2 is also impacted by short-term costs”

 

VP

Vp (#VP.) – H1 adj. EPS down to 39p, DPS maintained at 11.5p, “headwinds and challenging conditions continue to impact General Construction and Housebuilding”

 

BRCK

Brickability (#BRCK) – H1 adj. EPS down to 5.03p, DPS up to 1.12p, “profitability is expected to be first half weighted due to phasing of project work in the Contracting division”

 

CPG

Compass (#CPG) – FY adj. EPS up to $1.195, DPS to $0.598, current year expects “organic revenue growth above 7.5% and ongoing margin progression”

Monday »

DSW

DSW Capital – interims, will deal volumes be “returning to normal levels” in its Q4?

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: one month to Christmas

 

ECR

Doc Holliday pumping and dumping at ECR: there is a case for the defence

 

KGF

Kingfisher – Q3 update emphasises “full year profit guidance range tightened”…but that’s not in a good way!

 

LFT

Letter to FRC: please investigate Zak Mir, Lift Global Ventures and Lee Lederberg of Edwards Veeder

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith bonus bearcast: just a few more thoughts on Microstrategy vs Golden Prospect Precious Metals

 

DIA

Dialight – interims argue “confident that further progress will be made in the second half”, but sufficient for the balance sheet position?…

 

HEMO

Tim Kempster warns those foolish enough to own Hemogenyx

 

CEL

EXPOSE: Has Graham Bond of RSM been a very naughty boy with his Celadon homework?

 

Bitcoin

MicroStrategy - A possible Bitcoin short

 

GOOD

#GOOD Energy – Takeover Panel extension to 23rd December “to allow further time for Esyasoft to progress its due diligence”

 

ECR

#ECR Minerals – £0.95m subscription at 0.33p per share

 

SFT

Software Circle (#SFT) – “up to” £16.7m new loan facilities, to repay £6.7m of outstanding bonds

 

RTO

Rentokil Initial (#RTO) – CFO Stuart Ingall-Tombs retiring, Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson to succeed

 

DSW

#DSW Capital – Deputy CEO Shru Morris to succeed James Dow as CEO on 1st April

 

DSW

#DSW Capital – H1 small profit, “deal volumes in November and December are likely to be subdued, as many transactions were brought forward ahead of the Budget”

 

DIA

Dialight (#DIA) – H1 another even adj. pre-tax loss, notes macroeconomic ‘caution’

 

KGF

Kingfisher (#KGF) – Q3 LFL sales -1.1% YoY, “expect adjusted PBT of c.£510m to £540m (previously c.£510m to £550m)”

 

BMK

Benchmark (#BMK) – agreement to sell genetics business for £230m and up to further £30m

 

AAL

Anglo American (#AAL) – agreement to sell steelmaking coal mines in Australia for US$2.775bn and up to total US$3.775bn

Sunday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: does Optibiotix need an FD and time to short bitcoin?

 

GPM

Golden Prospect – Late In Year 2024 Tipfest Update As Subscription Deadline Looms

 

Professor

Visual Aid: Top Performing Cryptocurrencies in 2024

 

Gold

The View From The Montana Log-Cabin As Gold Attempts To Stage A Comeback

 

Quiz

The ShareProphets Sunday Pub Quiz #268

 

Professor

Sunday Long Reads: London Fish Markets, Junk Food Fights Back, Should India Only Speak Hindi?, Don Simpson, Painting Protests

 

Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending Nov 23

 

Atomic

Tom Winnifrith podcast: British missiles hitting Russia, not in my name

Saturday »

NWOR

National World – saga continues as possible offerer Media Concierge warns it on “false and misleading statements”!

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: have you heard of Alastair Bath?

 

SBTX

SkinBioTherapeutics – “finalisation of commercial agreement with Croda” to further spark the shares, Buy

Friday »

NWOR

National World – considers possible offer proposal has “potential merits”, BUT…

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Hemogenyx you guys are taking the piss!

 

Clown

A failed fund manager offers his great thoughts on Jaguar and its relaunch

 

NTOG

Nostra Terra is a great example of why the AIM market is dying and has been for some time

 

Bear

Video: The Darkening Skies Over Wall Street – Ominous Signals for Investors

 

SYME

Letter to the FCA demanding suspension of the trading in the shares of the technically insolvent Supply@ME Capital fraud

 

COA

Coats Group – “continued momentum with double-digit sales growth”, but still looks to offer value

 

WEB

Webis: Jim Mellon takes it private, in reality shareholders’ equity already worthless

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Now Lemming Junior says switch from Optibiotix to Skinbiotherapeutics

 

APH

Alliance Pharma – a recovery Buy?

 

LFT

BREAKING: Lift Global Ventures – deep dive into 30 June 2024 numbers, its off to the FRC I go!

 

NWOR

National World (#NWOR) – Media Concierge urges it “to engage constructively” re. a 21p per share possible offer proposal

 

WEB

Webis (#WEB) – proposed AIM cancellation, to “reduce costs and protect shareholder value”

 

LTG

Learning Technologies (#LTG) – Takeover Panel extension to 6th December as discussions with General Atlantic “are advanced but remain ongoing”

 

TIFS

TI Fluid Systems (#TIFS) – Takeover Panel extension to 29th November for ABC Technologies “to finalise financing and other arrangements”

 

TAVI

Tavistock Investments (#TAVI) – subsidiary businesses disposal completion conditions satisfied and agreement to acquire asset management business Alpha Beta Partners

 

LPA

#LPA – weaker H2 YoY due to delayed orders, FY adj. “breakeven… in line with previous guidance”

 

RTC

#RTC Group – “continue to drive growth” and “remain confident in our ability to capture further value”

 

GAW

Games Workshop (#GAW) – “trading since the last update on 18 September 2024 is ahead of expectations”

 

DFS

#DFS Furniture – “order intake remaining in growth over the first 20 weeks” and continuing cost reductions, Marie Wall to join as Interim CFO

 

MBH

Michelmersh Brick (#MBH) – trading “benefiting from the quality of the order book”, “in line with market expectations”

Thursday »

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: starting my hard conversation with Steve O' Hara

 

TFW

FW Thorpe – expects results “marginally ahead of last year”, but is such trading sufficient for the valuation?

 

ECOB

Eco Buildings Group – letter of Intent for potential significant new contract, risk/reward Strong Buy

 

AAU

Ariana Resources – “Zenit Portfolio Operations Update”, the “portfolio” to expand?

 

JD

JD Sports Fashion – emphasises “well positioned for peak season”… but even with that only expects ‘lower end of guidance range’!

 

Clown

#Gowokegobroke: Jaguar and its new advert

 

Bearcast

Tom Winnifrith bonus bearcast: Which accounts from Zak Mir are a tissue of lies?

 

SDY

Speedy Hire – interims, “the board anticipates the group meeting its full year expectations”. Really?…

 

CEL

Celadon Pharmaceuticals: FFS just come clean, when’s the massively discounted placing?

 

SYME

BREAKING: Supply@Me Capital – Alessandro Zamboni in default on yet another 7 figure financing commitment

 

Chocolate-Teapot

FCA consultation on extending time firms have to respond to non-discretionary commission motor finance complaints

 

FRAS

Frasers (#FRAS) – open letter including noting its further requisition to seek to remove Executive Chairman Mahmud Kamani as director of boohoo (#BOO)

 

RSG

Resolute Mining (#RSG) – CEO Terence Holohan and the two other employees released in Mali and have departed the country

 

CHRT

Cohort (#CHRT) – agreement to acquire naval satellite communications business EM Solutions for c.£75m enterprise value, £40m placing and up to £1m “retail offer”

 

LIO

Liontrust (#LIO) – H1 adj. EPS down to 30.3p, DPS maintained at 22p, notes market challenges but argues moving into a more positive environment

 

CMCX

CMC Markets (#CMCX) – H1 EPS swing to 12.8p, DPS up to 3.1p, “confident in delivering on guidance”

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