Previously writing on “leading UK focused retailer and manufacturer of PVCu replacement windows and doors for the homeowner market” Safestyle UK (SFE), in March with the shares heading back towards 23.5p I questioned how confident on profitability now and concluded continue to avoid. Today an update from the company commences that it “expects to report H1 revenue of £74.0m, a decline of 5.4% on H1 2022, which is in line with our forecasts”… so what of a current more than 40% further lower share price response to around 10p?

Back in April, I talked about “jobs, revenues and Robert Walters plc's (RWC) dull update”. Since then the company’s shares have fallen even lower, but all of this decline is due to an over 10% fall this morning. Greetings to another dull update!

Hello Share Fans. Sometimes laziness pays off. Having extolled the opportunities of investing in British banks, I was waiting a respectable period before I began piling into Barclays (BARC). But when I could have done so (and not broken strict Shareprophets writer's rules) I couldn't be bothered.

Hello Share Fanatics. This time last week I said I was changing from a bear to a bull. Not a moment too soon, either. Yesterday. the Footsie reached an all-time intra-day high of 7,906. More of that to come, I fancy. Here’s why.

Hello Share Speakers. Yes, I know the Footsie has been on a small roll so far this year. But I’m still reluctant to go back into shares. Though this week I did buy Lloyds Group         (LLOY) because I’m not the only one who thinks banks have been forgotten by investors who should have realised that rising interest rates benefit the big four.

        Hello Share Monkeys. This old punter is still staying in cash. The outlook for shares in general is still worrying. But I will be looking at buying green shares in the early part of 2023. I know Uncle Tom and others will scoff. But the imperative to find more alternative forms of alternative energy is growing fast and will accelerate from here.

Did you see today’s UK house price index update from Halifax? Whilst I am sure some people will focus on an average house price of £292,598 following an annual change of 8.3%, the game is obviously changing. After all, whilst house prices, apparently, over the last quarter are up 0.4%, the last month has seen a 0.4% fall. Are you surprised? Of course not! And, as Lloyds Bank (LLOY) banged on about at its last set of quarterly numbers the other week, the average house price is going to fall somewhat more over the next year.

I have never admitted this publicly before, but when I was 18 and setting up a university bank account I wanted one at Lloyds Bank (LLOY). However, it never worked out and I ended up with one of its competitors (absolutely nothing to do with the extra ten quid offered as a “joining bonus”). And, funnily enough, I have never owned Lloyds Bank plc shares either during my investment life, as there was always something potentially better or more interesting or something else. Nevertheless, I listened to the group’s conference call earlier today for a bit of light corporate earnings season excitement. What did I make of the “fast evolving and uncertain environment”, where apparently “the group is performing well”?

It is always interesting times in the world’s financial markets, but sometimes it is more interesting than average. And as for sectors and stocks, Barratt Developments (BDEV) is one of the more fascinating names in the FTSE 100 at the moment given the obsession with the housing sector and the company’s over 50% share price fall year-to-date. And it is probably a good thing that I do not own the stock myself as it is down a further 5% this morning after publishing a trading update.

Gold closed the week at $1661 per oz – up from last week’s $1645, but still below the apparently all-important $1675 mark. It is all a bit depressing, but with incoming cash from the latest AIM-listed Ariana (AAU) dividend of 0.175p per share due tomorrow, the Gold price in Sterling terms within £100 of its all-time high and equity markets in another bear-run, its not so bad.

Describing itself as a “technology and services business aiming to revolutionise home moving and ownership”, Smoove (SMV) has announced “strong growth… demonstrates the depth of the group's relationships with its introducers and its ability to capture market growth in the remortgage segment” and that it “anticipates that the recently announced changes to stamp duty thresholds will help more people get on the property ladder which should in turn positively impact the group”. So what of a current share price response to below 44p, down 9%?

Hello Share Crackers. This old punter would never live in a modern house. Where’s the atmosphere, the romance, the character? However the majority of the populace don’t agree with me. They much prefer clinical, easier-to-maintain, gaffs in the modern style. And I think the demand for new homes will become even stronger, which brings me to a company that likes to build affordable homes.

Every month the Global Fund Management Survey (FMS) is published.  A bit like any survey, you have got to be a touch cautious, as if something is already consensus, it is hard to keep on being smart (unless something is fundamentally brilliant or terrible).  As for the survey this month, even if you compare the FMS cautious levels towards a weaker economy, thoughts are akin to how they were in October 1998, December 2000, August 2006, July 2008 and March 2020.  As for recession fear hopes, we are not far off the fear levels seen from FMS levels seen in March 2009 or April 2020. 

Hello Share Twirlers. It may come as a surprise that I pay a financial advisor. But I believe in Jim Slater’s Zulu Principal. This suggested we should only invest in the small area we know well. Apparently, a family member of the great analyst knew a lot about Zulus. I'm not an expert on bonds and other instruments, so I only trust to my own guidance on British shares. Now this week my adviser gave me some very sound guidance.

Hello Share Thrashers. Some analysts are worried about the building game in these dangerous times. But my humble view is that companies in this sector shouldn't really suffer. The overriding factor is that supply continues to lag behind demand. The homes shortage is becoming more acute. And that means prices can rise even when inflation and lack of progress in GDP continues to worsen.

Gold closed the week at $1713 – down from last week’s $1739. However, in Sterling terms it closed at £1488 – up from last week’s £1481, reflecting the weakness of the pound and a reminder of the usefulness of Gold as an insurance policy. The Fed (and the Bank of England under the useless Andrew Bailey) are still talking tough in the face of sinking economies, in the face of rampant inflation. To my mind, they are either bluffing or are heading for massive self-inflicted recessions. In either case, holding Gold is a great insurance.

There is an old fable amongst musicologists described in two questions: a) what is it that we try to learn from the great masters and b) why do we fail. The answers are a) how to get out of a hole and b) because they don’t get into one in the first place. This week the economic masters of our time got into a hole – Jackson’s Hole – and are wondering how to get out. The problem is that the economy is itself in a hole – squillions of unpayable debt and acre upon acre of magic money trees – and there is no way out. The solution, of course, would have been not to sink into such debt, financed by printing money, in the first place – but they dare not admit it.

It is nearly a Bank Holiday weekend, so typically you would have very quiet markets (with only a few dodgy small caps slipping out very late and very shabby numbers). However, even for boring larger cap ex-institutional investors such as myself, there is plenty happening. Admittedly, I am fed up hearing about the world’s media talking about higher gas and electricity prices as if they barely knew that Ofgem existed. Here is my top tip for macro and micro economy watchers: just because something has not gone up for ten years, does not mean it cannot go up. It is just like people borrowing money at super-low interest rates for a decade or more and then complaining when the yield (finally) goes up. And talking about interest rates, I guess I will be keeping half an eye on the views of the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later today.

Gold finished the week at a sickly $1748, down from last week’s more hopeful $1804. Gold stocks have again gone into reverse and the Fed is talking about hiking rates further. It is all grim for Gold bulls…..or is it?

Hello Share Takers. My favourite insurance company has posted some good numbers for the first six months and looks set to have a good year. Its operating profit improved by 8% to a cool £1.2 billion. Cash generation jumped by 22% and the Legal & General (LGEN) five year growth target is performing as it should despite all the headwinds of a shaky current economy.

I am trying to remember if I ever owned Taylor Wimpey (TW.) shares as an institutional fund manager a decade plus ago. I don’t think I ever did as - aside from owning my own house - the property market intellectually has never really been a big thing for me. As for Taylor Wimpey shares this year, I observed just over six months ago that “if you are a total return investor for FY22 – it is not that terrible” but I was not going to buy the share myself. And even if you generously factor in the current c. 7% annual dividend yield, the stock is still down c. 14% over the last six months. Apparently though - as per today’s first half numbers - “full year Group operating profit (is) now expected to be around the top end of the current market consensus range". How exciting…or not?

Previously writing on engineering and technical recruitment group RTC (RTC), in March with the shares down to below 30p I concluded the financials including cash burn and near term difficulties meant I certainly continued to avoid. So what now with “pleased to announce” results for the first half of 2022 and the shares at 21.5p?

Gold ended the week at $1743 – a nasty drop from the $1813 clocked up last week, and according to ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com, down through support at $1780 and $1750. So is it time to give up my hermit existence and return to normal life? Not a chance!

Hello Share Moochers. There’s a perception these days that housebuilders will soon see retreating share prices because of rising interest rates, the soaring cost of living, high energy costs and so on. But my optimistic view of the bricks and mortar trade is not shaken. And that’s because supply continues to lag behind demand. And the first-half numbers from Vistry (VTY) seem to support my view.

Gold finished the week at $1827 – down a little from $1840 a week ago as the divergence from the general stock market continues. Of course, I view stock market strength as…..ahem……transitory, to coin a phrase, so if Gold is diverging that is good news for Gold Bulls. If only this final roll-over would hurry up!

Hello Share Mashers. My favourite housebuilder Berkeley Group (BKG) has released some chirpy full-year figures. The group’s house sales were well up on last time, though selling prices and costs ate into earnings. Never mind, profit before tax still rose 6.4% to £551.5 million. And as long as profits keep on rising, despite all the headwinds blowing around these days, share kickers like us should be happy.

Gold finished this week at $1840 – down from last week’s $1872, but a good recovery from the drop to test $1810 in the wake of the Fed’s rush of blood in raising interest rates this week by 0.75%, accompanied by the suggestion that we could be in for the same again at the next meeting. The Fed wants us all to know that it is taking inflation very seriously. Very seriously indeed.

I describe Thursday morning for me and Jaya, including a stop-in with my parents-in-law.  This is relevant, as I discuss what my mother-in-law was watching on TV. I look at the house price bubble, the Bank of England, and interest rates. Then, I touch on THG (THG); ASOS (ASC); Sosandar (SOS); Zephyr Energy (ZPHR) - get your wallet out, Cliff; Wildcat Petroleum (WCAT); Kinovo (KINO); and Boohoo (BOO). I also discuss the notion that MusicMagpie (MMAG) has a list of "spiffing institutional inveestors", and that this will save the company. It won't.

Hello Share Masters. We can’t live without water. Or sewage. Which means big water suppliers should keep our investment safe whatever the effects of inflation and the higher cost of living. Pennon Group (PNN) has been doing ok recently. Its latest figures show underlying revenue rose 22.9% to £792.3 million for the full year. The operating profit, the more important number, came in at £237.2 million.

It continues to be interesting times for all financial market investors. You may have seen that the UK’s April GDP numbers were down, driven by reductions in the services, manufacturing and construction areas i.e. a bit of almost everything. All good fun then! Still, I read that general economic progress was apparently “partially offset by growth in car sales, which recovered from a significantly weaker than usual March”. How exciting (and how might that continue over the rest of this year?). And I bet you cannot guess what the Bank of England might do - for the fifth time in about six months - on Thursday.

Hello Share Pickers. I am glad that Uncle Tom kept you informed of my holiday antics and events at the Punter's Return. I am now back in the saddle myself. If, like me, you think the Jubilee celebrations are a waste of dosh, let’s turn our attention to a less trivial matter - interest rates and inflation. At present the Bank of England rate is 1%, the highest it’s been for 13 years. But nobody thinks the rate will stay there. 

Hello Share Placers. Now that folks seem to take Covid in their stride, with few bothering to wear masks any more, you might think the best sectors in which to buy shares stay unchanged. But that’s not the case. Some companies face better prospects post pandemic and some risk a bleaker outlook.

The reference is to the fact that there is only 1 candidate in the local elections where I live and he is a king sized dickhead. From that I move onto interest rates and why they should have been increased by more than 0.25%. Of course we should not be in this inflationary mess anyway. Then it is onto  Vast Resources (VAST), Trainline (TRN), Seraphime (BUMP),Parsley Box (MEAL) and musicMagpie (MMAG). I will try to complete my long promised share purchases tomorrow and to discuss them then.Thank you to all who have donated to Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks.  We are now at 15% of target but still 97% of Bearcast listeners have yet to chip in. Come on, just a fiver or a tenner: please do donate now HERE. PS The reference to Kirstie Allsop and a podcast is about this one HERE. 

That was quite a week – having started in risk-on mode, all the major indices were slapped down on Friday, US treasuries fell away yet again and gold and silver slumped as the week drew to a close. Gold ended the week at $1,932, down from $1,974 a week ago, having bounced off resistance at $2,000. Meanwhile the Dow closed down 2.8% on Friday, alongside a 2.6% drop on the Nasdaq and a 1.4% fall from the FTSE100. The 10-year US Treasuries closed the week on a yield of 2.9% whilst 2-year hit 2.67%. The reason for the end-of-week squall was the Fed.

Hello Share Toters. This old punter is downsizing. That means selling stuff on eBay. That was very profitable in the lockdowns as ordering by mail boomed. Now far fewer folks are buying my tasty gear. Latest figures on online buying bear me out. According to the Office of National Statistics, retail sales fell by an unexpected 1.4% in March. And February's sales figures were also revised down. Most of this decline being due to online selling.

I suggested two weeks ago that the yield curve was going to invert by the end of April. I was wrong – it has already happened. This, I suggest, has implications for the yellow metal, which closed this week back down at $1926 – down from last week’s $1959, but still nicely above $1900 and indeed the last quarter saw a record high finish.

I was amused to see that “Scottish Widows pulls million investors out of tobacco” as I noted yesterday that “I’ve never smoked, but I do still believe that shares in Imperial Brands (IMB) are cheap”. It is fine not to buy a particular sector but where do you stop? After all you can also not buy alcohol, military and commodity shares (and more) on a similar rationale. From my perspective, I am happy to see both Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco (BATS) shares up this morning as I write. Meanwhile I also observe that NatWest Group (NWG) shares are up today despite the government announcing a further share sale…

Gold ended the week at $1922 – down from last week’s $1991 as the assault on the record high petered out. The Fed raised interest rates, the Bank of England hiked rates again, the Ukraine war continued with more horrific attacks and inflation was still there rearing its ugly head.

The big news this week was, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is horrendous, and once again my thoughts are with those in the firing line. The market’s initial response was to mark up Gold and oil/gas, and sell everything else. But then a recovery set in – although I am not convinced it will last.

Hello Share collectors. Lloyds Bank (LLOY) took a hit yesterday even by the standards of a sad day when war broke out in Europe. The shares had been moving up, albeit very slowly, for some time before full year results came out yesterday. They weren’t so bad, it’s just that the City seemed to have expected something rather better.

Analyst Mark O’Byrne is puzzled by gold’s lack of reaction to current global risks.  He says that the metals should have moved higher in response to inflation. Supposedly, they are anticipating rate hikes but a large move seems unlikely as that would crash the markets. Inflation is not transitory and we’re just seeing the start of it. He expects weakness in the short term for gold as Fed takes some sort of action. Then he says that within a short period afterward, we will see gold break to the upside.

Gold ended the week at $1808 – so still around the $1800 mark. It has been here for what seems to have been an eternity. Yet at the same time, whilst the yellow metal has held firm, gold stocks have been selling off and silver has slipped back to $22.50, having been as high as $24.50 only a couple of weeks ago.

As predicted on this fine website, AIM-listed Purplebricks Group (PURP)’s interims to October 2021 are suitably disastrous. But since the company isn’t bust (yet) the market has reacted with relief and the shares are marginally up on the day, at 20.3p – though a long way shy of the 50-60p they were at only last autumn, and a country mile off the £5 at peak Neil Woodford-ramp back in 2017. The opening preamble tries to polish the turd, but a peek at the formal accounts shows that it lost £20.2 million in just six months. During a housing boom where anything standing sold within hours and average prices roofed it as mortgages were almost free to a good home. Yikes – just how bad might it have been in a slump?!

I completely agree that Barclays (BARC) is not an exciting company and I consequently have probably written about it too many times on this website. Anyhow the good news is that this is likely to be the last time I will write about it. It is time for me to sell my Barclays shares.

Hello, Share Plungers. You know how you get a feeling that a share is going to start a bull run? The value of such a premonition often depends on how long you’ve been pursuing our golden game. As someone who began shifting shares in King Solomon’s reign, perhaps my view, based on a lifetime of subconscious financial considerations, is worth a bit more than most. Or perhaps not. In any event I have a nagging feeling that the big high street banks will start to pile on share value. And I rate Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) higher than the other four.

Yes Piers Linney is back. I fill in a few gaps for Mail readers including red flags from the latest venture of disgraced Piers, Moblox Limited.  Then it is onto macro predictions on oil, gold, interest rates, inflation, house prices, tax, equity markets and bitcoin. Happy New Year.

Gold finished for Christmas at just about $1810, up $11 on the week as Gold enjoyed a very minor Santa rally. The view from the Montana log-cabin is that this recovery of $1800 is fragile in the short term, but I expect a much stronger 2022 as the grinding correction fizzles out and the US heads into mid-term elections at the end of the year.

Well that was a strange week! Having plunged as low as $1765 earlier this month from a high point of $1872 mid-November, Gold has been trying to put in a recovery but there have been some strange reactions.

Gold had a steady week last week, closing at $1783 per oz, down a shade from $1792 the previous week. As bond yields have moved higher as the market anticipates the Fed’s taper and rising interest rates, it seems to me that Gold is trying to climb the “wall of worry” but as yet hasn’t had the impetus to clear the hurdle. We will have to wait a little longer.

I see there is more comedy occurring in the energy sector as yet another company – the wonderfully named Zog Energy – collapsed. I have never heard of it but given I recall ‘Zog’ as a 2010 children’s picture book about a young accident-prone dragon which I think both my daughters at some time read, you have to smile at the choice of its name. Yet another energy company which needs to fully understand that not being sensibly hedged means you can be materially exposed to any price volatility. Meanwhile as Ofgem put it following a collective four million household problem “under our safety net we’ll make sure your energy supplies continue…You can rely on your energy supply as normal”. Far smarter if Ofgem also tells all customers that simply trying to find the cheapest short-term company is not smart. Still, you cannot regulate everything otherwise we would not also have shares that exhibit either too much fear or (more recently) too much greed judging by their crazy multiples. At the moment I am trying to work out which side housebuilding stocks are in.

Gold may have sold off at the end of last week, but seems to me to be sitting pretty at $1845 – down $21 on the previous week but still nicely above former resistance at around $1835. But there is perhaps a rather more troubling line to cross at around $1900 or thereabouts, which might take a few goes to crack.

ShareProphets published the latest thoughts of favourite technical analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne regarding Gold on Friday. It was described as a bleak warning for folkslike me but I beg to differ – and I certainly won’t be buying meme stocks instead!

Hello, Share Creepers. This old punter rather likes all the high street banks at the moment. But Lloyds (LLOY) may be the best of the bunch if you’re looking for a rising share price. The stock reached a year high a week ago. But that was still only about 50p compared to £3 or so back in the day.

I start with letters I have or will be writing to two regulators. One is about a thief and a liar in Dublin and I explain why the Central Bank really should act but possibly will not.  The other is about a company on the Standard List exposed HERE today and I urge the FCA to take immediate action. Then I discuss the inevitability of higher interest rates. How will you cope?

Fully-listed Christmas share tip of mine, Golden Prospect (GPM) released its interim results to June this morning. The bottom-line news was that Golden Prospect lost 16% in NAV terms over the period – not exactly a healthy performance. But as long commented on these web-pages, Gold and Gold stocks have been in a correction since the beginning of August 2020 and I have commented before that Golden Prospect is likely to over-perform in both directions so when times are good they are really good for shareholders, but when Gold goes through stickier times Golden Prospect is likely to underperform. And so it has been: Golden Prospect’s NAV dropped 16% whilst GDXJ (the “junior” gold-miners ETF) dropped 14.7% and the yellow metal itself only fell by 6.4%.

Hello, Share Starers. Banks are responsible for some of my biggest losses over the years. I still have holdings in most of the big British ones and, as I expect something of a resurgence, I will continue to hold them. Why am I optimistic?

Another week goes by and Gold is testing the nerves: having bounced between $1750 and $1830 or thereabouts over the past three months, this week the direction of travel has been lower and the price closed the week at $1751. Worse still, we have seen a series of lower highs.

I had hoped that Gold might push through resistance at $1830-50 last week, but it did not – and the price slipped more-or-less all week to close at $1787 per oz, down from $1828 a week ago. The apparent resistance tells me that there is some way to go before there is enough market strength to push on higher to $1900 and beyond.

Another week and more positive progress in the price of Gold. Last week it closed at $1817 per oz, now it is up to $1828 and spent the back end of last week having a pop at $1830 overhead resistance.  This is all very positive in my book, and Silver had a strong week too moving up to $24.73 having put in a low point of $23.00 last month. So is the Gold Bull-market about to reappear?

The last time I moved was about fifteen years ago and I bought that without a mortgage in any case. In other words, I am of no interest for mortgage names and housebuilders. Nevertheless, even I have become a bit more interested in the sector over the last eighteen months as noted most recently a couple of months ago. One name I have commented on a few times is Barratt Developments (BDEV), which has published full year numbers this morning.

Gold ended the week at $1817, up from $1781 last week. The big news was the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell’s speech to the virtual Jackson Hole shindig and whilst there had been some talk of a spot of hawkishness and an imminent taper on the masses of magic money being spewed out by the Fed, what we actually got was that the Fed’s view was that it could be appropriate to trim in this year. Which, of course, means it also could not be! The result was that Gold headed north and gold stocks followed suit.

Having traded between around $1800 and $1830 for the past month, on Friday Gold finally gave way and dropped to $1763. Gold Stocks duly followed. So what lies ahead? Further declines, a jolly good  bounce or just flat-lining?

Gold closed this week at $1812 – up a notch from last week’s $1808. That’s a fourth weekly gain in a row, which is good, but given that the price peaked at over $1830 it’s a bit of a disappointment. The surge was in reaction to yet another set of US inflation data well above expectations, but the response was short-lived.

Hello, Share Lovers. It’s been a while since I’ve reviewed Vistry Group (VTY), the house builder born of a link between Bovis Homes and Linden Homes. On the back of a covid-caused housing boom, it is doing rather well. The first half of Vistry’s financial year saw ‘significantly’ better sales than it expected. And it has high hopes for the rest of the 12 month period. But the shares hardly moved on the news, so there could be some room for us to make hay.

Hello, Share Trackers. When a company turns in nearly 7% better profits than last time, while Covid’s with us, then you’ve cause to respect the chances of the share rising. Full year revenues for my favourite house builder, Berkeley Group (BKG) improved by nearly 15% to £2.2 billion, while operating profits climbed to £502.3 million.

Gold finished the week at $1782, having finished last week at $1764 – a modest improvement, but still a long way off $1900 which it was trying to clear before the Fed dropped the bombshell that it saw two rate rises…not this year, not next year, but in 2023!

Crash! Having had a fair old go at clearing $1900 Gold went into reverse this week to close at $1764 – down a whopping $114 from last week. Apparently Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, has suddenly become a hawk……having told us he would ignore inflation data for the rest of this year, that unemployment is his biggest concern and that he wasn’t even thinking about thinking about tapering QE (which, we are told, would come before raising rates), now we are told to expect maybe two rate hikes in 2023. And that was enough to send precious metals into a tail-spin.

AIM-listed online ladies fashionwear purveyor Sosandar (SOS) has announced the placing I have long predicted, and a Primary Bid offering alongside. The fundraising, announced at 5pm yesterday – after hours, natch, was planned to raise £5.24 million at 20p per share and this morning it was announced that the placing and Primary Bid offer had closed, having been oversubscribed. My stance for the past few months has been wake me up after the next placing. So am I now a buyer?

Last week I noted that the calamitous latest US jobs data had helped the yellow metal over the $1800 mark and Gold reached $1831 as the magnitude of the miss sank in. Jordan Roy-Byrne, of TheDailyGold.com had been predicting a rise to between $1825-1850 before hitting overhead resistance and this week saw inflation data pushing ever higher which was taken as a cue to sell off.

Hello, Share Plumpers. Shares in housebuilders are bowling ahead. One of those at the forefront of the advance is Barratt Developments (BDEV). It completed nearly 4,500 homes in the first quarter of this year. That’s up by nearly a third on this time last year. And 5.7% better than before the pandemic first struck. Plus, the group has been able to boost its cash pile to £1 billion.

Hello, Share Soldiers. Last week, we considered why the Footsie wasn’t scorching ahead like its counterparts in American and other countries. This despite the whiz-bang vaccination programme here and the gradual return to normality. Well, after a hesitant start this week, the stock market has at last begun to recover. The new momentum was helped along by a prediction from the Bank of England that the economy will surge by a whopping 7.25% this year. That’s the biggest leap for 70 years.

Back in early February HERE I wrote ‘Barratt Developments really, really loves Help to Buy’ but had to admit that the share was going to go up a bit more. Since then the stock (BDEV) has moved a quid or so and now has a 775p stock price. So happy days for holders but, given the share price in early 2020 was only a little over 800p, is there anything left for shareholders to chase?

Gold and gold shares continued the recent northward run this past week but hit the buffers as the yellow metal attempted to get over $1800 per oz to close the week at $1777 per oz – back where it started the week. Likewise, Silver ended up almost back where it started too, but did manage to post a very modest gain to close a faction over $26 per oz.

It has been a long winter for gold, as an extended correction set in last August. But after a few weeks of going nowhere it seems as though Gold has finally exited the corrective phase and is finally on the up once again. But will it last, or are we headed for more drops?

Gold businessman Keith Weiner argues that there is no way to extinguish debt in our current system, so the total debt grows, and due to interest, it tends to grow exponentially. He says that in the past, the Fed loosened regulations and lowered rates, but it’s like they are now pushing on a string. 

Last week I noted that Gold was going nowhere fast. This week it moved fast, and quite a bit, but ended up more-or-less back where it started. This week’s action might offer some hope to gold-bulls like me, but I fancy there remains a way to go before one can be certain the selling of the past 8 months is finally over.

Back in August the Gold price peaked at $2063 and it has been more-or-less downhill ever since. On Friday the Gold price closed at $1700 – a 17.6% drop in around seven months. So is the Gold bull story all over? My answer is definitely no. But as a Gold Bull, I would say that, wouldn’t I!

Gold and silver have been extremely weak in recent weeks and investors, certainly retail, seem to be moving away from these metals, but I would question whether that is the right decision to make at this time.

It was all looking so rosy. The correction from $2063 which started last August seemed to have played out, a low had been put in at $1776 and recovery was well on the way as the yellow metal rose and rose again to over $1950. And then we hit a bump in the road and we’re back down to around $1830. Even ShareProphets’ favourite technical analyst was taken aback by the drop: I hate to say it, but it looks as though Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com has finally got something wrong!

When I last commented on Gold I noted that it seemed to have smashed through overhead resistance at $1900-1925 but cautioned that it may turn tail again in the short term. My view was – and remains – that it will head sharply higher over the next year to eighteen months but we must await the return of the Gold Bull. Well, it seems that it has indeed turned tail – we will be waiting a little longer for the bull to reappear.

There are, once again, bubbles everywhere. US markets are at all-time highs and Japan is at a thirty-year high, according to David Scott. Government bonds (as opposed to their yields) aren’t far off all-time highs and – importantly – the returns are minimal if not negative. Traditionally, that would be a warning sign that all is not well – normally when one is high the other is low. But these are no normal times.

Gold has been rebounding. At the close of November the correction had taken it all the way down to $1760 and it had fallen from almost $1880 in the course of just eight trading sessions. Now it is back at $1880 and it looks as though the bottom of the correction has been put in. So what now?

Hello, Share Scrapers. There was a time when it didn’t really matter much about Blighty’s economy when it came to the value of our biggest shares. If the Dow went up, so did the Footsie. And vice versa. It’s only in recent years that this correlation hasn’t been as strong. But just lately, the strength of a record-breaking Dow, despite the virus, seems to have galvanised shares over here. Now if that’s true, then our shares are going to rise nicely next year. I think most of expected that already, but its nice to have a few American views to back things up. 

The gamesmanship is in full play between the UK and its former EU partners. Reading the runes, it looks as though no-deal is the front runner, but you never know what may happen at half a second to midnight so I’ll wait for the fat lady to warble her final aria before giving up hope that common sense might, in the end, prevail. But if the talks fail to see a deal signed sealed and delivered, my sense is that this will prove a great reason for keeping gold-exposure high.

Hello, Share Seekers. There’s no wonder that home builders are doing well even in lockdown periods. It’s still permitted that potential buyers can walk around show homes and buy if they want to. Also, building work is going ahead as normal. While estate agents report that house prices are not only maintained but in some areas rising fast. Take Taylor Wimpey (TW.) for instance…

The correction in Gold and gold stocks continues and I am waiting patiently, relaxed as I am with my feet up as I sit on the veranda of my Montana log-cabin. It seems that the US election is taking centre-stage: I am not sure why, as both sides are promising the long-awaited fiscal stimulus, although Biden appears to offer more. But the outcome (or lack of one) will not make Covid-19 go away. The economic damage will therefore continue.

Hello, Share Grafters. A trading report just in from Barratt Developments (BDEV) helps to bear out what I’ve been saying about house builders and the virus – that it currently makes little difference to them. In the last three and a half months, the company put the last brick into 4,032 homes. That’s 780 up on the same period of 2019. The sales rate was better, too…

One day gold is up, the next it is down – but the overall picture is one of not going anywhere. Gold was threatening to start to rebuild a head of steam and then Donald Trump announced that fiscal stimulus talks were to be suspended until after the US elections….and gold retreated again. I’m not sure why – both sides are promising to load the country up with more debt and a new package is a certainty once the election is over…

I have no crystal ball, so shares in Malcolm Burne’s Golden Prospect (GPM) could fall further before going up again, but I am convinced that it is now an outright buy.

And so Buzz Lightyear “QE to Infinity and beyond” of the US Federal Reserve spoke at the virtual Jackson Hole economic summit for the great and the good of Central Banking. Reading between the lines, we can expect higher inflation but interest rates will stay low on the other side of the pond. That, of course, means that US Treasuries are set to lose investors’ money as inflation eats into the capital invested. As we all know, if the US sneezes the rest of us catch a cold, so expect the same thing this side of the pond. That was the news, but there seems to be a point that has been missed.

There is an old joke in musical circles in the form of two questions and their answers: what is it we try to learn from the great masters (in composition) and why do we not learn it? The answers are how to get out of a hole, and because the great masters don’t get into one in the first place. And that brings me to Jackson Hole – aptly titled for head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell – where this year’s conference amongst the great and the good of Central Banking is being held virtually this year.

Economist David Rosenberg says that flattened yield curves are promoting liquidity issues, credit supply has been contracting, and the velocity of money is also declining. So, he argues, if money velocity stabilizes, we’re going to get a lot more inflation, and perhaps that is what gold is trying to signal.

Hello, Share Searchers. Though I support most house builders in these difficult days, I’ve not covered Vistry Group (VTY) before. It’s fairly new, being formed in January following the acquisition by Bovis Homes from Galliford Try (GFRD) of Linden Homes, and I happen to think it’s got a good chance of growing its share price...

Yes you did read that ciorrectly, interest rates at MINUS 4%. 

Hello, Share Shiners. There are those, like Uncle Tom, who disagree with my bullish stand on home builders. But I continue to support some of them and one of my top picks in the sector is Taylor Wimpey (TW.). It’s now getting back into swing, beginning by taking back all its staff on furlough...

The technical analyst community is frothing a little over this chart as it offers a pretty strong bull signal for gold enthusiasts. The thing causing the excitement is an inverted head and shoulders, suggestig upside ahead, on the chart of Gold Futures. Note the break of that line at $1680 this past week: I gather the upside target is around $1880 per ounce.....IF ths follows the textbook. That's a big "if", though.

Hello, Share Sappers. Few of us will be interested in buying shares at the moment, whether I think they’re in a great company or not. So allow me to impart some encouragement in these difficult days. And that is: dividends are still being paid...

Hello Share Gatherers. Persimmon (PSN), the builder, made profit before tax of £1.04 billion in its last full year. However, that marked a reduction on last time of 4.5%. But one reason for that performance is that fewer homes were sold. And that’s probably not surprising, as the big home builder plans to concentrate more on quality from now on...

Hello, Share Swappers. You may recall that I generally support the chances of housebuilders continuing their resurgence as reasonable investments. And I rather think that companies which make swathes of new houses in the middle price range are the way forward...

Hello, Share Twisters. With three offspring who may buy their own homes in the next few years, I keenly appreciate the current shortage of houses. This gap between supply and demand will benefit all builders. But probably more so those companies whose homes are at the more reasonable end of the market. Earlier this month Barratt Developments (BDEV) reported encouraging figures...

Hello Share Spooners. I’m making a lot of dosh these days. Not through trading shares, but in selling a load of what my wife describes as’ tat’ on eBay. It’s amazing how much little sales mount up. However, it’s currently hard work supplementing my income by trading shares.TW Note is not the Welsh word for what you sell tuch? (not sure on spelling)

Hello Share Chewers. As its the non-trading weekend, let’s take the opportunity of searching the pros and cons of investing in companies with high dividends. As poor interest rates continue to rule, does it not make more sense to buy shares for the yield than to hold loads of cash in the building society?

AIM-listed Turkish gold miner Ariana Resources (AAU) has had a raft of good news lately – the biggest seems to me to be the resurgent strength of the yellow metal: last seen its price was through the apparently all-important $1350 per oz level, although only time will tell whether that proves a sustainable move or another false dawn in a long line of false dawns. We have also had full year results for 2018 and drilling results from Kizilcukur all amounting to a rise in the share price to 2.1p. Having finished my own top-slicing, I can now proudly say strong hold as we look forward to a string of developments.

Hello, Share Swipers. Home builders have performed well for me over recent years. Not because they are necessarily blisteringly good firms, but boosted by the government’s help to buy schemes which have put a lot of dosh their way. However, this family’s investment in Galliford Try (GFRD) has not done well of late...

“A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.” – Ron Paul…

Hello Share Plungers. Should you fancy, as I do, that house prices will not be affected much more by Brexit, however the negotiations progress, then it might be worthing taking a peek at Barratt Developments (BDEV). Do we really believe that foreigners will stop scoffing our bricks and mortar just because its becomes slighter harder for Europeans to enter the country?

The column below is by Trey Reik, a Senior Portfolio Manager, Sprott Asset Management. It covers the US economy and US house prices. Buy a) all asset classes are global, they are linked so if US house prices crash there will be a slump in the UK too and b) exactly the same factors are at play here as in the land of the free. Read and consider...

Hello, Share diggers. There are niggles that house builders will be hobbled by Brexit. I can't see it myself. We need housing and homes are still in short supply. The Government has not said it will ease back on its generous incentives for builders when we leave the EU, so if the usual rules of supply and demand apply - and they’re always pretty powerful - then firms which build should, well, build their share prices while unemployment is low and interest rates are still modest...

Hello, Share Tweakers. As someone who regularly sets himself up as an Aunt Sally for Tom’s entertaining bearcasts, I hesitate to commend a home builder to you. But I really think Barratt Developments (BDEV) is worthy of your support. And I base that view on its latest trading report.

From military exercises to trade wars, the fury is intensifying. At the same time, global liquidity is compressing while rates are rising. Growing uncertainty, contracting liquidity & rising cost of capital will continue to place non-US assets (and in particular EMs) in the crosshairs.

More and more of us, I suspect, are beginning to follow the sage advice of my noble colleague Nigel Somerville in recognising the blossoming importance of juicier dividends. Though the capital assets of our babies are mostly rising in the long-running bull market, a lot of us rely on dividends for our daily bread.

Hello Share Swingers. Barclays (BARC) has been a miserable share to hold. What progress there has been in recent years has been slow. And set-backs along the way have made things worse. I sold mine about two years ago and, as it's turned out, the money raised has been put to much more profitable use. The latest results do not raise my hopes much higher.

Hello Share Snatchers. Back in the fifties when dads were obeyed, pater urged me to be an estate agent. I'd rather be a reporter and I summoned enough courage to defy him. And jolly good too, as these days estate agents may be becoming a rarer species.

Hello, Share Sorters. One of the big British oilers whose share price I expect to see escalate, once the penny of rising oil prices finally drops, is Tullow (TLW).

A month ago, I wrote a piece about housebuilders generally and Crest Nicholson (CRST) specifically, which concluded with the observation: "Lower prices and lower margins...that's the way forward for housebuilders. Sell 'em all". Today's formal half year numbers from Crest fully reiterate this clear theme...

Hello, Share Smashers. With the price of homes retreating, you might be tempted to stay away from house builders. But one company I think might continue to do well is Berkeley Group (BKG). I’ve covered this sprightly builder a few times over the last year or so and the trend has always been up. Other builders have struggled, but not this one.

Hello Share Ticklers. It’s been some time that I’ve suggested you look again at a British bank. But that doesn’t mean my general enthusiasm for the sector has gone away. In fact, it’s grown stronger - for two reasons.

A few things seem to be happening all at the same time which, for a bear, look as though markets may be set to reward those of a more negative persuasion. This week saw the Dow sliding below 24,000 again, gold spurted higher to just under $1350, Donald Trump looks set to cause a trade war, the EU and Russia’s Vladimir Putin are at loggerheads and at home it seems bumper pay increases for the public sector, which we can’t afford, are the order of the day. All this against a backdrop of threats to raise interest rates.

There are many ways of assessing the value of the stock market. The Shiller PE (price relative to the past decade’s worth of real, average earnings) and Tobin’s Q (the value of companies’ outstanding stock and debt relative to their replacement cost) are possibly the two best. That doesn’t mean those metrics are accurate crash indicators, or that one can use them profitably as trading signals. Expensive stocks can stay expensive or get more expensive, and cheap stocks can stay cheap or get cheaper for inconveniently and expensively long periods of time. But those metrics do have a good record of forecasting future long-term (one decade or more) returns.

Hello, Share Snackers. The building sector is an interesting one. And previously I've sounded optimism for building firms. After which, we've seen some big increases in share prices.

Hello, Share Swiggers. As this stunning website’s most bullish trader, I must be expected to give a rosy forecast for the progress of shares in 2018. And though I began last year by saying the stocks surge would probably last only 12 months, I now extend that perky period until the last quarter of this year. Here are my reasons for believing that the Footsie will end 2018 around 9,000.

In the later stages of Unbridled Exuberance, nothing infuriates an investor more than the sight of other people making more money than them. Now ten years on from the Great Financial Crash things are just as extraordinary now and nearly a decade on we remain evermore firmly in the crisis that over financialisation has created. The main sign of this is interest rates.

Back in mid-September I told you to take your trading profits on Next (NXT) at around fifty quid a share. Today's update highlights again that currently the only way to play even UK retail names with good market shares, decent balance sheets and a propensity to chuck out dividends and undertake share buybacks is with a trader's hat on.

I note some of the comments made about the demise of Monarch Airlines and add my critique. What really struck me is how the 2000 staff will each get just one week's pay. How will they cope? I was today given some data on UK consumer debt and savings levels which is jaw dropping and terrifying. It gets worse. The interest rates we pay on our debts are already starting to rise. Again how will the consumer cope? And what does this all mean for your portfolios and your personal finances?   

Hello Share Scorchers. There are still quite a few of our regular readers who can only glean the first paragraph of each article. Just to save less than £1.50 a week. Don’t they realise they would retrieve thousands of pounds just by following our warnings about dodgy cpmpanies they might otherwise stay with till the very end? I can’t understand human nature, and never will.

It is my son's first birthday today - how time flies! I start with a look at inflation. It is back! And the greed of the lazy public sector workers (demonstrated clearly HERE) will fuel it which means interest rate rises ahoy. I suggest this has clear implications you should not ignore. Then I take a detailed look at IQE (IQE),its last results,investor perceptions and explain why I believe that the shares at 131p are a very poor risk reward play for the bulls like Comrade Stacey.

Hello, Share Tanglers. The idea of living on a Barratt housing estate used to fill me with dread, but a lot of folk seem to like its houses nowadays, so I humbly suggest you look at the shares.

If you look at the FTSE-350 names reporting today there is something of a thematic bias with names like Barratt Developments (BDEV) and Berkeley Group (BKG) updating investors with their latest.

Hello, Share Twisters. Two months ago I commended the big builder Persimmon (PSN) to your attention. The share price then was about 2220p. As I write, it’s 2636p. But there is further to rise, I fancy.

Markets are starting to adjust to the idea that interest rates are going up and they are now questioning exactly what this means. This generally means less risk-taking, which means lower asset prices. We are at a point where small shifts in absolute terms have an outsize relative impact. If interest rates rise from 5% to 5.25%, that’s not a big move. But if they rise from 0.25% to 0.5%, they’ve doubled. 

Hello Share Stackers. Though it sounds like a hero from Ancient Greece, Persimmon (PSN) is a popular British house builder. And it’s doing better than many of its competitors.

All investors wish that they had a crystal ball to predict when a recession is coming in the US. But there’s one thing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff that has predicted imminent recessions...

Hello Share Planters. Here I am again, risking a commendation to look at the shares of one of the major British banks. This time Lloyds (LLOY) seems to me a worthwhile proposition. I am heavily over-exposed to this lot, so I personally hope so.

Hello Share Toddlers. My weekend piece suggesting we don’t sell our shares too soon received a critical response from Uncle Tom. It’s a return to the familiar battle between me in the blue corner and the sage of Bristol in the red one.

A prolonged period of low interest rates will tempt banks to take greater risks and sound the death knell for final salary pensions, the International Monetary Fund has warned. A new study from the IMF said a continuation of the cheap borrowing environment seen since the global financial crisis a decade ago would pose a “significant challenge” to financial institutions and force them to make fundamental changes to their business models. Although interest rates have recently started to rise in the US, the IMF said Japan’s experience suggested an imminent and permanent end to the current low interest rate environment could not be guaranteed.

To observers of financial markets it must seem odd that they often behave exactly the opposite to what is expected. Explaining it is also a strange thing too.

Hello Share Toppers. Allow me to take a tiny break from recommending stocks which could soar to another figure which is on the increase. And that’s inflation, which has risen for the fourth month in a row. How will this trend affect our shares?

The US government has worked tirelessly to manipulate statistics to falsely reflect an overall recovery. The stock market is much easier to manipulate than the fundamentals, so, the fundamentals must be misrepresented.  While some numbers slipping  through issues of true supply and demand continue, the vast majority of the populace has little clue that the collapse of 2008 never actually stopped, it was just shifted into a state of slow motion which is peaking again.

Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.

I note with interest the today’s macro-outlook comments by Malcolm and Tom, each taking different sides of the debate. While I agree with Tom’s analysis, I reckon that Malcolm’s conclusions might turn out be right!

Negative interest rates? Mortgages for the unemployed? Theresa May and Hillary Clinton reckoning they can solve the economic mess with "new Government policies". It is a mad, mad world. And sooner or later we will face a day of reckoning for the economy, for shares and for property prices that will be brutal in a way you cannot imagine as I explain in today's podcast

The head of the world’s largest asset manager has warned that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union will trigger a recession. Larry Fink, chairman and chief executive of BlackRock, said UK gross domestic product (GDP) will face a “short-term” recession despite the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

New River Retail (NRR) has issued a strong first quarter trading update which shows continued operation progress at this growing REIT. Even better, Brexit-related share price weakness looks to have created a potential buying opportunity for watchers of the shares.

Crossing the radar this morning is a Brexit-related trading update from Empiric Student Property (ESP). This is a new-ish REIT which has been listed for only two years. It has been a fairly steady performer so far, although the share price swung wildly around the referendum news.

Begbies Traynor (BEG) is a fine example of a counter-cyclical stock. As the UK’s leading independent insolvency practitioners, they see a great deal of business when other firms are failing. It has been an unexciting value stock for the past several years, but this morning’s acquisition news shows there is still plenty of potential here.

NewRiver Retail (NRR), the AIM-listed real estate investment trust focused on the retail sector, has announced its annual results this morning. It marks the latest chapter in a stock which is likely to land in mainstream ETFs and funds later in the year.

It is now Eighty years ago, February 4, 1936, that one of the most influential books of the last one hundred years was published, British economist, John Maynard Keynes’s The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was born what has become known as Keynesian Economics. Within less than a decade after its appearance, the ideas conquered the economics profession and become a guidebook for government economic policy then and to the current day.

Warning: This podcast contains a lot of bad language and images of a sexual nature. As far as I understand it, Sweden is known for the fact that 95% of its population enjoy thrashing the naked buttocks of other folk's partners at the weekend. But it is not this that concerns me but its insane Central bank which has cut interest rates again ... to minus 0.5%. I reflect on this madness and the insanity of Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve and then on the gold price. I look at a few gold stocks racing ahead wrongly ( Condor (CNR), Goldplat (GDP) and Patagonia Gold (PGD)) and at others I might buy. I comment on the insane dead cat bounce at Motive TV (MTV) and on the odd behaviour of crony capitalist PR man Reg Hoare of TrakM8 (TRAK) and explain why its shares are still a sell. Then it is onto the deadlines for Solo Oil (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) going under as Neil Ritson tries his hand at Leni-Maths. And I also have a trivial pursuit question for you all.

How many macro-economic forecasters does it take to change a lightbulb? None. You get someone who knows what they are doing to do it. In that vein I offer up my six big macro calls for 2016. I am a bottom up investor - my share tips of the year will follow - so this is not really my forte but I have views - and did study economics at university - and these shape my investment calls. So here goes.

Despite the recent sell off my BTI (sentiment indicator) is still rising (bullish divergence), an indication that the FTSE will rally. But the rally must start now otherwise there is a risk the BTI will turn down. Sentiment is affected by stock market declines, if the market falls and the decline lasts too long people turn bearish. 

I first suggested a three-times leveraged ETF with the ticker code SEU3 as a trading idea back in July (see HERE). It was not suitable for everyone due to the complexity and wild volatility of the product, but it has been profitable. The following updates as I consider banking gains and where to get ideas for what to do now.

I actually was not going to write-up Thursday’s quarterly update from the world’s best larger cap gold mining stock Randgold Resources (RRS).  The numbers showed good progress: rising production at an attractively low cash cost, a building net cash balance and exciting prospective exploration development opportunities.

In today's podcast I look at the Portugal Coup and what it means for the EU and the Euro. Then onto profits warnings and where I see equities going and finally a note on Mark Carney, UK base rates and UK house prices.

The latest Financial Orbit Speaks reviews the past week's financial news including thoughts on the Federal Reserve, 5,000 year lows in interest rates, whether QE will be expanded or not and why we should not fear a structural fall in corporate profitability over the next generation.  

I got this piece written by a fellow called Simon Black, who runs the Sovereign Man website, today. Yes we live in la la land as Mr Black explains

In today's podcast I look at the Greek Election next week. The voting is irrelevant, Angela Merkel will remain in charge whoever wins. Greece is still fucked and I explain why. Then it is onto interest rates in the US and UK - the FOMC meets on Thursday. Then asset bubbles and crowdfunding - an en passant mention for Vitesse Media. Finally to Hotel Corp (HCP) and the disgraceful smear compaihn by crony capitalist motherfucker Derek Short and Shore Cap against Marcus Yeoman. I have some bad news for Short & Shore Capital. Warning: this section contains some bad language.

Hello Share Pushers. As the old shares lose more and more value, the reasons given for the slide back become ever more bizarre.

Hello Share Trundlers. The great Warren Buffet said that it doesn’t matter if shares fall. As long as we don’t need money straight away.

The Fed, QE4, Interest Rate Hikes, and THE FED! Peter Schiff thinks the Fed has finally reached the end of the rope and the so called recovery is about to come to an end. Schiff called the 2008 crash spot on. And – as you may have gathered here – he is a bit of a hero of Tom. 

Much has been made in the media that US equity markets have had their worst period since late summer 2011. This morning, the burgeoning crisis has abated in response to the People’s Bank of China’s 0.25% interest rate cut. China’s baseline rate is now 4.6% and global markets have rallied strongly in response. However, it would be a surprise if this were anything other than a temporary reprieve, not least because of the spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX). The VIX tracks the volatility in the constituent stocks of the S&P500 and its latest reading is clear warning of a bumpy ride to come. Even so, if played correctly, this could prove to be extremely profitable.  

My father is at Church and the the pub and so I am able to record a quick podcast covering three themes. First the snearing and dying deadwood press - something prompted by THIS. Then interest rates. And then Wandisco. For more on Wandisco, as mentioned in the bearcast, and on many other matters including why Rob Terry of Quindell (QPP) infamy will go to prison, read the latest Uk Investor Show magazine out this weekend HERE

Greece is getting interesting again and in this podcast I explore who will be the big losers from Grexit and it won't be Greece. The fallout threatens many aspects of the Western financial markets but the bigger threat is interest rates which are going to rise sooner than you think. Warning: this podcast contains extreme bearishness