Hello Share Shufflers. Happy are those who managed tickets for Tom’s Sharestock event on Saturday. The timing is impeccable with many analysts, including this very old one, predicting fit action in share prices for the rest of the year. Here’s one company which, seemingly rather surprisingly given the present circumstances, might do better than most.
If you want to speak to anyone in a pub about the housing market, then there are ten million people better qualified than me in the UK. After all, if I want a Coke Zero it is a lot cheaper to buy at a local supermarket and, with reference to house prices and the like, after we finish the rest of the 2023 price dump I reckon house punters can hope for a 0-2% per annum move over the rest of the decade. The smart thing to do with a house is to focus on owning it to live in. And, whilst some people might get a bit lucky living in one specific location rather than another, honestly you should not be perving over the Rightmove (RMV) website as there are so many better things in life to be doing. And that brings me to today’s full year numbers from Barratt Developments (BDEV).
Ten weeks ago I observed “my continued deep yawn about the world of Crest Nicholson (CRST)” HERE. Since then shares in the housebuilder have fallen by nearly 20%, partly driven by its announcement earlier today.
Hello Share Tweakers. When I was a lad, old gentlemen wore linen suits in the summer. These they changed for bowler hats and black Crombies with velvet collars in the darker days. Today, the elderly slob around in trainers, shapeless shorts, stretched tea shirts and baseball caps. While modern ladies look like an explosion in a jumble sale. And yet…
I have never been a big user of Rightmove (RMV), but I do see that a couple of homes relatively near to where I live have decided to quit trying to sell this year. That is sensible and I am sure they are not the only ones around the country to come to a similar conclusion. How is all this - and lower house prices generally - impacting Rightmove?
In today's bearcast I, again, discuss falling UK house prices as we head into a recession. Then it is onto Procook (PROC), Vast Resources (VAST), Eurasia Mining (EUA), Quadrise (QED) and Audioboom (BOOM) wondering if its fanboy Gary still feels lucky ahead of next week?
I start with some macro matters, base rates, house prices, the madness of Malcolm in buying housebuilders, etc. Then it is on to Currys (CURY) where Chris is wrong about the shares and where my experience as a customer is not good. Then its cash crisis ahoy at Colin Bird's Bezant Resources (BZT) and finally when is it a good time to stand down as CEO and what can it mean, I refer to FinnCrap (FCAP) and to Pod Point (PODP) PS I reckon that FinnCap is due another profits warning PDQ as is its proposed merger partner Cenkos (CNKS).
Nigel says that my boredom is a buy signal. But is it? Maybe it is right to be bored as something has changed. After that a bit on house prices and why I don't see a mega crash but would not buy housebuilders as Malcolm suggests I do. Finally, why not go for a quick death rather than a slow one and vote Labour? Oh, and I remind you why I may not be at liberty to bearcast on Tuesday. CORRECTION: Fellow Hammer J Price points out that Rice will be on £15 million a year not a week as I said in the podcast..
Hello Share Gatherers. You would be forgiven for giving all house builders a wide berth. We all know house prices are falling as mortgages become more pricey. But there’s always a swan among the geese. And I think you might look at my favourite home builder, Berkeley (BKG).
When it is the last day of the month as well as the quarter and the first half of the year, I generally find most institutional investors are just fiddling around with their portfolios. After all, there is bound to be at least one important portfolio appraisal that be undertaken. It is no wonder that I read that certain loved-up mega caps are kicking around all-time highs, whilst some rather iffier selections have been quietly moved away from. It is all good fun!
I start on the 0.5% hike in base rates: who is to blame? What does it mean for house prices, recession, corporate insolvencies and the next General Election? Then I look at Oracle power (OCP), Contango (CGO), Shanta Gold (SHG), More Acquisitions (TMOR) which is treating Doc Holliday very badly, Bidstack (BIDS) - target now zero - and Powerhouse Energy (PHE), ditto.
I have never owned shares in Crest Nicholson (CRST), which describes itself as an (apparently) “leading residential housebuilder operating across England with an emphasis on creating well-designed, high-quality homes in sustainable communities”. You will not be surprised to see that the shares have effectively halved since 2019 and 2021 highs but, apparently, there’s an “expansion plan on track and land acquisition support future growth” angles. Bully for it…
I still have my head in my hands regarding the concept of a voluntary agreement with major retailers to see price reductions on basic food items like bread and milk. The basic concept of competition works so much better than subsidies. In my view, prices in the average supermarket are naturally starting to edge down. It is amazing what sluggish economic growth naturally tends to lead to. If only we had a Tory Government to stop this sort of nonsense. Oh. Er. Anyhow, what I really want to talk about today is another price obsession in the UK economy: house prices.
Hello Share People. It takes a courageous analyst to recommend you look at a housebuilder in these dodgy days. But I still think the Berkeley Group (BKG) share price has some milage in it. Even if the latest numbers show sales in the industry down, rather a lot to be honest.
Hello Share Squatters. Many shares held by ordinary folks are bought like puppies should be - for life. As you’re a reader of this glittering website, you’re probably not in that lazy group. You’re here to make real money from shares. For this you’ll have a trading modus operandi. But in a fast moving market is it now out of date? Read on…
It is the last big week of the year for macroeconomic watchers, with the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank all set to raise interest rates again. How…predictable. What will interest me is how worried they are about 2023. I see the chancellor has been banging on about a UK economy which is “likely to get worse before it gets better” and “I don't know whether inflation has peaked or not”. Maybe Santa will help out 11 Downing Street? Meanwhile, let’s have a quick focus on what Rightmove (RMV) said today.
Did you see today’s UK house price index update from Halifax? Whilst I am sure some people will focus on an average house price of £292,598 following an annual change of 8.3%, the game is obviously changing. After all, whilst house prices, apparently, over the last quarter are up 0.4%, the last month has seen a 0.4% fall. Are you surprised? Of course not! And, as Lloyds Bank (LLOY) banged on about at its last set of quarterly numbers the other week, the average house price is going to fall somewhat more over the next year.
I prepare for Halloween with pumpkin carving and soup today. Photos tomorrow. Sohail says he has given up on gold "experts". I discuss this and then onto another area where there are a lot of "experts" who all talk their own book and it is the same one. I discuss house prices, volumes and stocks who I reckon will have a bad time includfing Purplebricks (PURP) which I expect to go bust in 2024, or possibly sooner
I have never admitted this publicly before, but when I was 18 and setting up a university bank account I wanted one at Lloyds Bank (LLOY). However, it never worked out and I ended up with one of its competitors (absolutely nothing to do with the extra ten quid offered as a “joining bonus”). And, funnily enough, I have never owned Lloyds Bank plc shares either during my investment life, as there was always something potentially better or more interesting or something else. Nevertheless, I listened to the group’s conference call earlier today for a bit of light corporate earnings season excitement. What did I make of the “fast evolving and uncertain environment”, where apparently “the group is performing well”?
It is always interesting times in the world’s financial markets, but sometimes it is more interesting than average. And as for sectors and stocks, Barratt Developments (BDEV) is one of the more fascinating names in the FTSE 100 at the moment given the obsession with the housing sector and the company’s over 50% share price fall year-to-date. And it is probably a good thing that I do not own the stock myself as it is down a further 5% this morning after publishing a trading update.
Hello Share Crackers. This old punter would never live in a modern house. Where’s the atmosphere, the romance, the character? However the majority of the populace don’t agree with me. They much prefer clinical, easier-to-maintain, gaffs in the modern style. And I think the demand for new homes will become even stronger, which brings me to a company that likes to build affordable homes.
Hello Share Thrashers. Some analysts are worried about the building game in these dangerous times. But my humble view is that companies in this sector shouldn't really suffer. The overriding factor is that supply continues to lag behind demand. The homes shortage is becoming more acute. And that means prices can rise even when inflation and lack of progress in GDP continues to worsen.
Hello Share Mashers. My favourite builder is still flourishing despite a few nasty headwinds currently assailing the house-making game. Higher interest rates and the galloping cost of raw materials have so far made little difference to the company’s performance. Berkeley Group (BKG) is on the way to achieving its targets for 2022.
I am certain that there are a bunch of people who are excited that the latest house prices from Halifax showed a 0.4% increase in August, meaning (apparently) average UK house prices from this source were up 11.5% year-on-year. How pleasant statistically, but it is all looking in the past and what really matters, about the housing market and so much more in life, is what happens next. And that nicely brings us onto today’s full year numbers from Barratt Developments (BDEV).
I am trying to remember if I ever owned Taylor Wimpey (TW.) shares as an institutional fund manager a decade plus ago. I don’t think I ever did as - aside from owning my own house - the property market intellectually has never really been a big thing for me. As for Taylor Wimpey shares this year, I observed just over six months ago that “if you are a total return investor for FY22 – it is not that terrible” but I was not going to buy the share myself. And even if you generously factor in the current c. 7% annual dividend yield, the stock is still down c. 14% over the last six months. Apparently though - as per today’s first half numbers - “full year Group operating profit (is) now expected to be around the top end of the current market consensus range". How exciting…or not?
In early May I observed that “The Rightmove (RMV) CEO is wise to exit stage left after over 16 years”. The rise and rise of online property porn has been such a huge focus for the average adult over the last twenty of so years. We are - after all - genius new home selectors, ranked only just below the “Location, Location, Location” presentation Gods. So why are Rightmove shares down year-to-date?
Like the complete investment obsessive I am, I spent an hour or two yesterday working out my corporate earnings season schedule for the next week. Monday is easy, Tuesday is pretty busy and then it gets mad. But it is all good fun of course.
Hello Share Moochers. There’s a perception these days that housebuilders will soon see retreating share prices because of rising interest rates, the soaring cost of living, high energy costs and so on. But my optimistic view of the bricks and mortar trade is not shaken. And that’s because supply continues to lag behind demand. And the first-half numbers from Vistry (VTY) seem to support my view.
It is the last day of June, the last day of the quarter and the last day of the first half of the year. How exciting! There is so much more to come for all active investors. As for the ‘buy a bit of everything / anything’ passive investor types…good luck, unless you really want to ignore the world of investments for a decade or two. And so much to think about, as always on a Thursday. First, I was amused to see that the latest Nationwide House Price Index for June pleased many people by still showing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% (only just below the 10.8% anticipated number).
I start with the garden, before explaining why I am driving all the way to Greece - my rational decision is a canary in the coal mine of global inflation. I defend Neil Woodford against a low-grade Sunday Times journalist, with reference to 4D Pharma (DDDD). Then, I look at bonkers house prices and when the tears will start.
Hello Share Mashers. My favourite housebuilder Berkeley Group (BKG) has released some chirpy full-year figures. The group’s house sales were well up on last time, though selling prices and costs ate into earnings. Never mind, profit before tax still rose 6.4% to £551.5 million. And as long as profits keep on rising, despite all the headwinds blowing around these days, share kickers like us should be happy.
Hello Share Pickers. I am glad that Uncle Tom kept you informed of my holiday antics and events at the Punter's Return. I am now back in the saddle myself. If, like me, you think the Jubilee celebrations are a waste of dosh, let’s turn our attention to a less trivial matter - interest rates and inflation. At present the Bank of England rate is 1%, the highest it’s been for 13 years. But nobody thinks the rate will stay there.
You all know how to think about Rightmove (RMV). As noted here in February, the average person seems to love checking out what the latest property price in their village or town might be. Even I have checked it out once or twice year-to-date (obviously purely for educational reasons). But I am not surprised that Rightmove’s shares are down 30% year-to-date and neither am I surprised that the stock is down 4% today…
I see there is more comedy occurring in the energy sector as yet another company – the wonderfully named Zog Energy – collapsed. I have never heard of it but given I recall ‘Zog’ as a 2010 children’s picture book about a young accident-prone dragon which I think both my daughters at some time read, you have to smile at the choice of its name. Yet another energy company which needs to fully understand that not being sensibly hedged means you can be materially exposed to any price volatility. Meanwhile as Ofgem put it following a collective four million household problem “under our safety net we’ll make sure your energy supplies continue…You can rely on your energy supply as normal”. Far smarter if Ofgem also tells all customers that simply trying to find the cheapest short-term company is not smart. Still, you cannot regulate everything otherwise we would not also have shares that exhibit either too much fear or (more recently) too much greed judging by their crazy multiples. At the moment I am trying to work out which side housebuilding stocks are in.
Hello, Share Slammers. This old punter has been saying for some months that Blighty’s house builders are likely to see further rising share prices as something of a boom is going on. Well, one of them Barratt Developments (BDEV) has just issued a three month trading statement that says it’s having ‘a strong and sustained start to the new financial year’.
Hello, Share Shooters. The reason Rightmove (RMV) and the like are putting on share value is that house prices are booming. August saw record rises in home values. I’ve mentioned before that housebuilders seem to be a good sector to support. But I suppose the same goes for many outfits that supply the raw materials for the building game.
Hello Share Minders. My favourite house builder is on track. It expects to make a full-year pre-tax profit of about £518 million and possibly more. For this we can thank rising house prices and tighter efficiency. The firm says future orders are now similar to levels before covid.
The last time I moved was about fifteen years ago and I bought that without a mortgage in any case. In other words, I am of no interest for mortgage names and housebuilders. Nevertheless, even I have become a bit more interested in the sector over the last eighteen months as noted most recently a couple of months ago. One name I have commented on a few times is Barratt Developments (BDEV), which has published full year numbers this morning.
Hello Share Millers. How’s this for a good set of half year numbers? Persimmon (PSN), the home builder, has seen revenues soar to £1.8 billion. That’s better by more than 54% year-on-year. House sales also soared by more than half, and there’s been just shy of a 5% increase in house prices to an average of £236,000. But as my brighter colleague Steve Moore often reminds us, that kind of boast doesn’t amount to much if profits haven’t shifted. Well, that’s not the case for Persimmon.
Back in April I wrote about Taylor Wimpey (TW.), ‘one of the largest British based housebuilding companies’. Back then the shares were above 180p, but even with a decent rise this morning after the publication of first half numbers, the shares are still ten pence or so below the level back then. So what is going on?
Hello, Share Plumpers. Shares in housebuilders are bowling ahead. One of those at the forefront of the advance is Barratt Developments (BDEV). It completed nearly 4,500 homes in the first quarter of this year. That’s up by nearly a third on this time last year. And 5.7% better than before the pandemic first struck. Plus, the group has been able to boost its cash pile to £1 billion.
Hello, Share Searchers. Mystery surrounds shares at the moment. Why aren’t they rocketing ahead? Many financiers expect a huge breaking of the damn on spending as the virus disappears. So why isn’t the Footsie on fire? After all, the Dow’s been breaking all-time records for months now. And yet the UK is still more than 10% down on pre-covid levels.
Hello, Share Stringers. Perhaps my current favourite house builder – and I own shares in more than one – has made some reassuring noises. Berkeley Group (BKG) reiterated its annual profit forecast as it benefits from pent-up demand and tax breaks for homebuyers. As previously expected, profits at are expected to be about £504 million.
Craig has been stirred up by the trolls who harass me and my family and has now repeated the defamatory remark that I am encouraging others to harm the frightful pests. The Crime Officer at the Badger Trust is now also demanding that I rewrite articles though I have committed no crime. He is not apologising for making up false allegations about what I wrote. He is picking on the wrong man on behalf of morons who own shares in Zoetic (ZOE) and Supply@ME Capital (SYME). Does the Badger Trust really think that harassing a journalist whose only “crime” is exposing fraud, at the instigation of those supporting those frauds, is a good thing to do? I discuss both companies and the failings of Standard Listings with regards to frauds which they demonstrate in spades. I also look at house prices in London and here in the boonies.
Hello, Share People. My rosy spectacles for the house building game continue to be in place. And today’s suggestion for your further investigation is Persimmon (PSN). Despite the fact that early in the pandemic its building sites were closed down, this giant has not been as affected as you might think.
Hello, Share Teasers. I still stand by my educated guess that house prices will continue to rise and that demand for new homes will increase. This should give estate agents a boost. So my choice today is Belvoir Group (BLV).
I wish you all a Happy New Year. I had a great New Year’s Eve as you can see HERE. In this podcast I look at how not all shares had a rotten 2020 then in detail at the push pull on house prices. After the best year in six in 2020, what is next?
Hello, Share Markers. You may be aware of my support for housebuilders in these odd times. Some pessimists warn that house prices will fall in a general recession. That would cause builders’ shares to slide, but I’m fairly confident, for reasons given in previous articles, that the opposite will be the case as the virus falls away…
At first blush, we have a lot to worry about when it comes to our shares. Covid cases rising in many areas, a Brexit deal not arrived at, rising unemployment and bank and oil shares still wallowing in the depths. But this old punter has seen it all before. And he knows that the sun will come shining through. Yes, you probably think the arch bull is being overbullish again. But the fact is that I have never sold fewer shares and that state of affairs will continue.
Hello, Share Seekers. My favourite housebuilder, Berkeley Group (BKG) isn’t doing too badly given the disrupted year all builders have experienced thanks to the virus. It’s announced that first-half revenue was only down by 3.8%, to £895.9 million. It could have been much worse, but the virus has, rather perversely, caused house prices to rise which offset most of the damage.
Hello, Share Trudgers. Continuing my support for housebuilders, may I bring to your attention Vistry Group (VTY). Now if this is a builder unknown to you, let me remind you that it was formed when Bovis bought the Linden Homes arm of Galliford Try. So no lack of experience, then…
Hello, Share Seekers. There’s no wonder that home builders are doing well even in lockdown periods. It’s still permitted that potential buyers can walk around show homes and buy if they want to. Also, building work is going ahead as normal. While estate agents report that house prices are not only maintained but in some areas rising fast. Take Taylor Wimpey (TW.) for instance…
Hello, Share Chasers. The great thing about my perpetually bullish stance on shares in British builders is that nothing seems to shake house prices. Not even the Covid scare has done anything to halt their unrelenting rise and rise. The main reason is that supply can’t keep up with demand, but there are other catalysts too, like low-interest rates.
Hello Share Trippers. House prices in my neck of the woods have doubled in the last year. I do live in an odd location, though. It’s a seaside town and apparently loads of top earners are selling their gaffs in the Smoke having discovered that they can work from anywhere. What does this mean for house prices generally and share prices which are linked to them?
Hello, Share Swappers. This family is thinking of moving house. A big choice must be made whether to wait until we sell our present abode while keeping our shares. Or to sell some shares to buy our new house, thus being able to afford two dwellings for the time being. It all depends on whether share prices will rise faster than house prices. And I rather think it’s safer to put more into property these days.
Hello, Share Chums. Persimmon (PSN) is one of my favourite housebuilders. Its half-year results, just out, confirm my optimism. Ok, its profit has taken a knock, this time it was a pre-tax £292 million compared to £509 million last year over the same six-month period. But the group has had a great start to the second half…
Hello, Share Bringers. You lucky members of shareprophets.com will know that I have a soft spot for Britain’s housebuilders. Supply can’t match demand and that’s the most powerful driver of share prices you can have. But what about that virus? Well, house prices hit an all-time record last
Hello, Share Twiddlers. Though I’m a supporter of most housebuilders, my favourite is probably Berkeley Group (BKG). Its latest numbers for the year ended April are out and at first blush seem discouraging. However, though revenue and profits are reduced by 35% on the last time there are a couple of good reasons for that...
Hello, Share Swappers. In better days I suggested you look at Persimmon (PSN), the big builder. Well, now the company looks as though it might be among the first Footsie players to get going again. After shutting shop on nearly all its building projects in response to the outbreak, it's now begun a gradual return to work beginning last Monday...
Hello Share Players. My favourite housebuilder operates mostly in the Smoke and the South East. Which, given the recent record of house prices in this neck of the woods, is a bit of a brave choice. But things are going so well that the company says it will return a billion oncers to us in the next 24 months...
Hello, Share Swappers. You may recall that I generally support the chances of housebuilders continuing their resurgence as reasonable investments. And I rather think that companies which make swathes of new houses in the middle price range are the way forward...
Hello Share Slakers. At first blush, the results for its half year ended 31 October from my favourite builder Berkeley Group (BKG) seemed discouraging. Profit before tax come in at £276.7 million, down by 31% compared to last time...
Hello, Share Twisters. With three offspring who may buy their own homes in the next few years, I keenly appreciate the current shortage of houses. This gap between supply and demand will benefit all builders. But probably more so those companies whose homes are at the more reasonable end of the market. Earlier this month Barratt Developments (BDEV) reported encouraging figures...
Hello Share Buyers. House building is a funny old game for poor old share shifters like us. If house prices fall, as they seem to be doing now, you can bet your last dollar that builders' share prices will go down even faster. But my feeling is that continuing demand for homes and low interest rates will keep the sector bubbling up, especially for more affordable homes...
Hello Share Topplers. Since I last commended my favourite builder to you, its share price has marched ahead. But there could be further to go for Berkeley Group (BKG). The company has done what we all seek to do, but rarely succeed. That is: it has worked out the best timing...
I start with the case of a banker Andrew Tinney who "acted without integrity" but thinks he has done nothing wrong. Discuss. Then ex banker Sajid Javid who wants to ramp up the housing asset bubble by switching stamp duty from buyer to seller. Why do you think he is oing that? Finally to Neil Woodford's Income Focus Fund and a discussion of why it should be gated now but when it will actually be gated.
Hello, Share Campers. When supply falls short of demand, or even likely demand, the happy supplier should be able to keep prices high and still make a tasty profit. That should go without saying. But those who criticise my current support for housebuilders rarely take into consideration this basic rule of o-level economics...
Hello Share Rattlers. Despite the fact that I’ve written in recent times in support of housebuilders, I hold few building shares in my portfolio. That’s because of laziness, rather than caution. But one of the few companies I’ve invested in is Berkeley Group (BKG). Many house builders have reported disappointing figures recently, as fears about Brexit, founded or not, have bit into the sector...
Spot the potential corporate problem. If there is a piece of government policy that pretty directly accounts for half of your profits, the smart thing to do as a CEO would be to try to sustain such a position for as long as possible. However as per Pete Redfern - chief executive of Taylor Wimpey (TW.) - Help to Buy is now a bad thing as it 'bought forward price growth significantly'…
Hello, Share Swipers. Home builders have performed well for me over recent years. Not because they are necessarily blisteringly good firms, but boosted by the government’s help to buy schemes which have put a lot of dosh their way. However, this family’s investment in Galliford Try (GFRD) has not done well of late...
Hello, Share Snatchers. Now might be a good time to buy shares in Taylor Wimpey (TW.). The homebuilder took a big hit this week when it warned that increasing costs of building materials would knock profits in 2019. At one stage the shares were off by 7.6%...
Hello, Share Twirlers. Twenty years ago, if you wanted to buy a house you turned up in the town and trudged around the local estate agents, of whom there were loads. Now you pop your price range and location into a website and you have all the information you want in a few minutes. You only need to visit a house personally when you're fairly sure you want to buy it.
Hello Share Plungers. Should you fancy, as I do, that house prices will not be affected much more by Brexit, however the negotiations progress, then it might be worthing taking a peek at Barratt Developments (BDEV). Do we really believe that foreigners will stop scoffing our bricks and mortar just because its becomes slighter harder for Europeans to enter the country?
In this podcast I look at the utterly useless coverage of the LCF scandal provided by the Sunday Times which seeks to blame the poor old FCA for daring to trying to stop a ponzi. I then look at the bloodbath on the high street and the madness and denial of some. There is comment on Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) and Pizza Express and also on house prices in New York and what that tells us about Brexit.
I was re-watching the movie last night and ask the question. I discuss signs that the FCA really is getting stuck in, albeit too late. I look at too good to be true investments starting with London & Capital Finance. I look at house prices and why I think that bad data gives far too rosy a view. I look at US jobs data yesterday and what that means for base rates. And I look at the big short positions in AIM stocks. Don't bet against the bears! Now off to West Ham.
I see that The Guardian and others are blaming Brexit for a fall in UK house prices. But hang on! House prices are crashing in Oz and Canada and sliding at an ever faster rate in the USA. What's that got to do with Brexit. The housing bubble in China is popping - how can you blame that on Nigel Farage? I explain why lower house prices are a good thing and what is really going on in today's podcast.
This bearcast is prompted partly by news Purplebricks (PURP) is not telling you about and partly by Malcolm's buy note on Bovis (BVS) earlier and partly on some new housing data out yesterday. Suffice to say Purplebricks is in ever deeper merde, Malcolm Stacey is wrong and there really could be a big fall in UK house prices and volumes and it is just partly linked to Brexit. It is a pin and we know there is a bubble.
Hello Share Pasters. At the risk of trampling a little bit on my brilliant colleague Nigel Somerville’s territory, it might be useful to highlight the best Footsie shares for dividends. This information becomes even more pertinent in times of a falling stock market. As we can still make good money from our divis, even after the direst of shocks.
Hello, Share Tweakers. As someone who regularly sets himself up as an Aunt Sally for Tom’s entertaining bearcasts, I hesitate to commend a home builder to you. But I really think Barratt Developments (BDEV) is worthy of your support. And I base that view on its latest trading report.
I never had Roger Lawson of Sharesoc down as a natural wit but I did chuckle when I read his comments on Telford Homes (TEF) and London/UK house prices. He is bang on the money, echoing exactly what I said in bearcast yesterday. Anyhow back to Roger “it’s the way he tell’s ‘em”
I am extending the Premaitha (NIPT) session at the 16th October UK investor event in London to allow an extended Q&A as I want folks to really grill the company. I shall. You can register and please do so HERE but hurry as the event is already 70% booked out! In this podcast I look at what really happened yesterday and why it shows the City in such a dreadful light. I also look at Tesla (TSLA) and Elon Musk where things go from bad to worse and at new US data and UK house prices.
Come home to a real fire...buy a second home in Wales. You remember the sketch. Anyhow, the Mrs and i are looking and pondering because, as you know, she wants to pursue her career and I want to rear goats. The exercise, however, throws up very real questions about house prices. Moving on I look at Bushveld Minerals (BMN), Optibiotix (OPTI), Avanti Communications (AVN), Imaginatik (IMTK), Redhall (RHL) and Mitie (MTO) another company whose former boss helps to make Jeremy Corbyn's quite insane policies seem almost desirable.
Most of what was in yesterday's bearcast on Angus Energy (ANGS) stands. The ramping is sordid and the company MUST come clean on Tidswell-Pretorious and his sordid share dealings. But I do not believe there is a placing at 6p. I was played and discuss that. Project Fear cheerleader Mark Carney says a no deal Brexit could cause house prices to fall by 35%. I explain why he is talking total cock (again). I look at Amur Minerals (AMC), Pan African Resources (PAF), Obtala (OBT), Online Blockchain (OBC) and ADVFN (AFN). I did not ask how ADVFN is affected by the new EU article 13 on copyright breaches? I cannot think that it will be a good thing for it.
Hello, Share Turners. Time was when comedians told jokes about Barratt houses. No longer. There is perky customer satisfaction. And though I have my detractors on this stupendous website, I still think Barratt Developments (BDEV) continues to go places fast. And so I fancy will the share price.
Hello Share Sighters. There are quite a few house builders to choose from and while some can't seem to go wrong, others do. One of the current factors in a builder's favour, or not, is where you operate. Persimmon (PSN) is based in York and most of its building goes on in areas which are not currently hit by a Southern fall in prices.
Hello, Share Crimpers. Many of us have made a bit of a killing with shares in Ashtead (AHT), the British company which hires out tools and plant to builders here and in the USA. Of course, it’s not the only player in what seems to be a pretty profitable game.
Hello Share Shufflers. Oh dear! I’m afraid I have to go, once again, against Uncle Tom and Chris Bailey. I’m suggesting you take a gander at another house builder. But Countryside Properties (CSP) is no ordinary home erector. It has a business plan which is truly in accord with government plans to stick new and affordable homes in urban settings.
Hello, Share Smashers. With the price of homes retreating, you might be tempted to stay away from house builders. But one company I think might continue to do well is Berkeley Group (BKG). I’ve covered this sprightly builder a few times over the last year or so and the trend has always been up. Other builders have struggled, but not this one.
To understand why 2018 will be a catastrophe, imagine a magnificent mansion built with the finest materials and craftsmanship and furnished with the most expensive furniture, carpets and decorated with finest art. Now imagine this mansion is built on quicksand. It will have a brief shining moment and then sink slowly before finally collapsing under its own weight.
Hello, Share Crunchers. As my mum and dad told me to be a modest chap, I rarely blow my own trumpet on this hallowed website. However, when my critics derided a previous tip, it has to be recorded when said recommendation goes on to rise like a rocket.
I start with a discussion on Big Sofa (BST) prompted by Cynical Bear's article today which is just wrong. CB writes HERE. Then it is onto capitalism and the useless Theresa May and then on to another reason why house prices are set to crash. Finally I discuss forward selling and whether it is wrong or illegal
Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are going to have a field day with a £650 million fat cat scandal which will explode within months at £7 billion FTSE 100 housebuilder Persimmon (PSN). Even as an ardent capitalist I am nauseated by this example of obscene fat cattery which shames capitalism,
Hello Share Mashers. It’s going to be a scary end to the week. What if Labour gets in? The Big City won’t like that and shares will dive heavily. But that will be a short-lived shocker, in my view. Because Jezzer in power will cause the pound to fall even lower. And that more than anything is keeping the Footsie at record highs.
Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.
It is the anniversary of 9/11, the Al-Qaeda attack on the twin towers in New York. I look back on that with a few thoughts notably on how we in the West have rewritten history in such an Orwellian manner as we repeat our past errors. I then look at what the market for classic cars is telling you about the stockmarket and house prices. It is not good. I've been here before and know how it will end.
I have been doing some work to show that the claims made by the left that Brexit has caused a sharp rise in hate crimes are at best academically flawed and thus unproven and at worst an outright lie. That leads me very directly onto claims made by Malcolm Stacey today on Brexit and house prices as he discussed Foxtons (FOXT) HERE. I take that article apart completely as my old friend is just wrong.
There is only one thing that Daily Mail readers love more than articles about how illegal immigrants can give you cancer and that is articles on how prices are going up. But today there is an article which warns that the Bank of England is set to try and stop Buy to Let becoming a bubble. It's too late! It is not if but when it all bursts.
Hello Share Snatchers. Building, building, building - that’s my best hope for rising share prices in 2016. I’ve highlighted a few likely house builders over the last few months, but I don’t think I’ve ever considered this famous name in the bricks and mortar game - Taylor Wimpey (TW.)
Hello Share Squeezers. I recommended a look at a few home builders last year, and here is one for 2016. Bellway (BWY) is the name of the firm this time and the price of its shares are in bargain ally compared to many of its peers.
Hello Share Scribblers. This old punter believes that house builders, some of which have been on a roll in the last six months, will continue to be on one. I’ve looked at the odd building firm on this venerable website, but I don’t think I’ve pulled a magnifying glass on Persimmon (PSN) for a long time.
Hello Share Freakies. There are those among us who feel that house prices in Britain have peeked. Uncle Tom is one. But I just can’t see it. If one thing drives demand more than anything else it is shortage of supply. And everyone knows that there are simply not enough houses and flats to go around.
Hello Share Sprigs. I become fed up with the number of people who tell me I should stop trading shares and invest in houses instead. A family member even told me this week ‘House prices never fall.’ But they jolly well do, don’t they?
Quite how a house builder manages to lose money in the current environment is a mystery to me. For the second consecutive year, £1.8 million market cap AIM tiddler Trafalgar New Homes plc (TRAF) has done just that, reporting a doubled £620,000 loss for the year (0.26p per share, a third of the bid price) to 31 Mar 2015 at no-one-is-watching o’clock on Friday (at 5.23pm). The ShareProphets RNS Translation Service has had a field day with the Chairman’s statement. Original in Bold.
Hello Share Munchers. Let’s have a look at the world economy and the British arm of it in particular. Knowing what is happening on the biggest scale helps us to make choices on the very smallest scale ie: which shares to buy or sell next.
Thank god i am not at Free Speech & Liberty pizza as every commie in London is marching past to celebrate "workers day". When is the day that celebrates the real stars: capitalists? After passing on news of Oakley's health I cover Daniel Stewart, the China frauds including Sorbic and Jiasen, Ascent Resources, Mosman Oil & Gas (joke), Coms, Mopowered, Horse Hill, Berkeley Minerals, Greville Janner, Begbies Traynor, UK house prices and the POS AIM Casino company that has sent me a lawyer's letter.
Every year back in the 1980s and 1990s the esteemed brokerage house of Wood Mac would poll institutional investors in oil stocks on where they thought oil prices were heading. The result was always the same. The consensus was that the next 12 months would be the same as the past 12 months. Maybe how that is how the human mind works. And perhaps that is why ShareProphets readers this weekend said that they were bullish on house prices. Or perhaps it is just that they like Malcolm Stacey (a bull) more than TW (a bear).
According to the Nationwide the average UK house is now worth £186,036 – an increase of 18% during the past year. Some like Malcolm Stacey see further increases due to lack of supply. Tom Winnifrith reckons that affordability ratios look stretched and that when interest rates rise many over-extended owners will be in trouble. What do you think?
Hello Share Crashers: It is worth looking at house builders again. I think some of these companies will see a hefty rise in their share prices soon.Yes, I know that house prices have stabilised lately. In fact, the cost of London homes has just dipped. But surely we all expected that in the capital: property prices there were getting out of hand.