I have received a number of comments about yesterday's Bearcast. I address some of those cultists, speaking out from the last redoubt. Then, prompted by Three Brains, I look at what a PE of 5 means as a guide to value, and why it can so often mean nothing at all.
Ahead of that, I describe triumph in the garden. Then, I discuss the accelerating Bitcoin crash, Argo Blockchain (ARB) and Cineworld (CINE).
Bitcoin is crashing once again, and now trades well below $19,000. According to Peter Schiff, the charts point to $10,000 as the next stop. Therefore, shares in Argo Blockchain (ARB) should be suspended first thing Monday; here is why.
After the crypto crash here is a handy summary of how the industry works, all in just one tweet. It is not a ponzi.
I start with Pure Gold (PUR) and today's utterly misleading release; the red flags do flutter in force here. The onto Kefi Minerals (KEFI), where 'arry bloody Adams does not understand why his NEDs are 100% discredited. Finally, I have two challenges for loathsome Neill Ricketts, as he steers Versarien (VRS) towards a crash landing.
Writer Jesse Felder warns that equities have NEVER been more overvalued but that gold offers a … golden opportunity to get rich
Asset manager, Egon von Greyerz does not mince his words. There is no fence sitting here. He argues that systemic risks are increasing but the general investor does not appear concerned. No one knows the size of the derivatives markets but it’s likely in the quadrillions. Egon points out that sovereign bonds make no sense for investors since the only way they can be paid back is with more money printing, hence they are extremely poor investments especially when you consider the dismal returns.
Analyst and silver bug David Morgan warns of the excessive risk created by the use of margin in markets. Excessive leverage led to the 1929 crash and the great depression. Investors can be wiped out if they are not careful.
Equity strategist Gareth Soloway is as bullish on gold as he is bearish on equities, He claims one should balance news with chart technicals. I guess he is half right. Gareth says that you want to be aware of new economic data even though his focus is primarily on the charts.
There may be no limit to the stupidity of the lunatic fans of AIM-listed jam-tomorrow IoT investment company Tern plc (TERN) but the market’s early reaction to this morning’s FY20 results – a drop of 18% – suggests that you can’t fool all of the market all of the time. In short, the numbers are a calamity.
Investor Michael Gentile started out during the Tech Boom’s final phases and has always taken a contrarian investment approach. He says that he has learned it’s best to get involved in a sector when it’s hated and that commodities tend to bounce between extremes of sentiment.
You would need a Nomad without any morals whatsoever to sign off on junk like this. Luckily Versarien (VRS) employs SP Angel of the fraud MySquar infamy so that’s alright then. These, delayed, numbers for the six months to 30 September 2020 are just piss poor, and also deceptive.
You think the marketr meltdown of the past six weeks has been bad. You ain't seen nothing yet! that is the belief of analyst Michael Pento who is Michael is convinced that we are heading into “The Greater Depression” as the world is awash in 17 trillion dollars in negative-yielding debt. He says, “We are no longer living in reality; this is a fantasy created by massive monetization of debt from central banks.”
It is a big question: where can you make money now? More to the point, with economic uncertainty the order of the day, perhaps not making money but just preserving capital as best you can should be the focus. Are shares going to go up? In general, I doubt it – at least for the time being. With interest rates at historic lows and therefore bond prices sky-high it is hard to see much progress there too. Perhaps we should all just move into cash? But central banks are printing, governments are borrowing so the threat of devaluing currencies makes that option unattractive too. What to do?
This time it is far, far worse...
Don't worry the sun will still rise tomorrow and we are not ALL going to die of Coronavirus. I discuss the oil price crash and stockmarket slump and look in particular at: Tern (TERN), Carnival (CCL), Bidstack (BIDS), Versarien (VRS), the antics of market makers, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Bahamas Petroleum (BPC), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Tullow (TLW), Optibiotix (OPTI) and Premier Oil (PMO)
Analyst David Hunter is sticking to his target of $1550-$1600 for gold, which he predicts will be reached around early September. For silver, he feels that $26 is still a definite possibility. He says, “When people become more interested in gold silver will head higher. Silver usually underperforms on the downward moves in gold and outperforms when gold rallies.”
Hello Share Chewers. As its the non-trading weekend, let’s take the opportunity of searching the pros and cons of investing in companies with high dividends. As poor interest rates continue to rule, does it not make more sense to buy shares for the yield than to hold loads of cash in the building society?
Neil Woodford has had another rotten week. Netscientific, which it seems he’s not going to fund any further, saw its holding in PDS listed on Nasdaq via a merger at $10 a share and the shares promptly headed south to close last night at just $7.65 – a drop of 23.5% which won’t help Netscientific keep the lights on much.
Oh dear – things are going from bad to worse at AIM-listed Haydale. The bailout refinancing had to be repriced down to just 2p and the open offer raised less than half the amount wanted. And now the shares have fallen below the bailout price – which was set at 2p, the nominal (or par) value of the shares which make raising any more cash a tad difficult.
The BBC has run a story suggesting that fully listed Interserve (IRV) is going to raise cash from its shareholders and quoted a former shareholder suggesting that it won’t survive. The media picked up on it and the shares crashed again. Of course, I’ve been a bear of Interserve for an age, as regular readers will know (and been proved 100% right so far)...
Most of us reading this superb website are bears. Not many people have anything to do with shares at all. And what makes us different is that we are optimists while most people aren’t. And if you are a pessimist, you won't be interested in shares. End of. That’s why traders like us are a minority.
Looking for a safe haven in the stockmarket storm? How about gold? On the day the Nasdaq tanked 5% the yellow metal started to rally and Adam Turkeman of Palisade Capital put the bull case for a much bigger rally below.
Well, maybe I am. Or maybe just misinformed, or I just don’t understand. I see that there has been a bit of bulletin board excitement over reports that the Share Centre is backing Woodford – in particular his Patient Capital Trust – “despite Brexit” but the logic seems to my simple mind a bit wayward.
Most of what was in yesterday's bearcast on Angus Energy (ANGS) stands. The ramping is sordid and the company MUST come clean on Tidswell-Pretorious and his sordid share dealings. But I do not believe there is a placing at 6p. I was played and discuss that. Project Fear cheerleader Mark Carney says a no deal Brexit could cause house prices to fall by 35%. I explain why he is talking total cock (again). I look at Amur Minerals (AMC), Pan African Resources (PAF), Obtala (OBT), Online Blockchain (OBC) and ADVFN (AFN). I did not ask how ADVFN is affected by the new EU article 13 on copyright breaches? I cannot think that it will be a good thing for it.
You have been warned (see HERE) that AIM-listed Haydale (HAYD) is a nailed-on certainty for a discounted placing. We also know that the last placing was at a mammoth 32% discount (at 120p!) and the CEO has recently stepped aside following a (lack of) sales warning. Since then, the shares have been a one-way bet southwards, and we reckon a placing at 50p was on the cards.
Hello Share Flingers. Against the flow, and my learned friend David Scott, I think shares will continue to rise. I’ve recently said that we should always be prepared for a crash because common sense says there will be one eventually. But sense is rarer than budgie teeth in Shareland where one philosophy over-reaches all others.
I guess the journalist smearing bastards at Citigate Dewe Rogerson might be about to lose another retainer. Their response to my probing of the financial woes of their poxy client FastJet (FJET) was to threaten and smear me. Fuck you Citigate. Now Fastjet has ‘fessed to just how grim things are. It could be tits up time by the weekend. Crack out the ouzo, let’s celebrate. I shed no tears for a company that stands by the actions of scum like Citigate. And I warned shareholders often enough what financial fate lay in store for FastJet.
On 29 June last year Israeli tech-company Ethernity (ENET) joined the AIM Casino at 140p. Today the shares sit at just 30.5p after a profit warning and dire results yesterday. What’s not to like?
The pain of the 2008 crash will seem like a mere flesh wound compared to the devastation the next deflationary wave will wreak...
Hello, Share Carriers. Even a raging bull like myself has to accept that sooner or later shares will crash to more realistic levels. There was a scare in that unhappy direction a couple of weeks back, but it seems to have been a false alarm. That doesn’t mean that the real thing - a proper crash - doesn’t continue to threaten us. So what should we do to preserve our assets now?
Warren Buffett always tells us that his intended investment holding period is forever, that he buys stocks he would be happy to hold if the market closed down for five years. I guess, then, if you’re Warren Buffett then the market travails of the last few days won’t bother you. If you’re not Mr Buffett I offer a few thoughts.
Hello, Share Changers. I know a lot of you worry about this Wall Street mini-crash. But your fears are probably unfounded. We’ve had a bull market lasting eight years. A correction was necessary. But it’s not been as bad as some writers on this magnificent website have been predicting. Neither will the big sell-off last.
Hello, Share Pilots. There is so many predictions of a earth-shattering share crash on this lively website, that we must all be feeling nervous. We all remember a few black days, only nine years ago, when it began to look as all shares would be worth hardly anything at all. Picture your mind’s desolation if that were to happen again. Here are a few precautions you might take.
I start with a discussion on Big Sofa (BST) prompted by Cynical Bear's article today which is just wrong. CB writes HERE. Then it is onto capitalism and the useless Theresa May and then on to another reason why house prices are set to crash. Finally I discuss forward selling and whether it is wrong or illegal
The August edition of the UK Investor Show Magazine is live featuring six share tips, the one gold share that all must own, and six reasons why the stock market may crash in 2017 and much more.
Okay I have called the top before but the house price crash is underway. I explain why and it involves cutting off the supply of dodgy foreign buyers in London, changes in Buy to Let Tax and new costs for landlords, it involves external shocks and an over-borrowed British consumer. It is already underway and this crash will be brutal. I look at what to invest in and what to short. I do a short section on Purplebricks (PURP) which is one of THE top stocks to short in the UK.
Hello Share Suckers. You’ve may have noticed, but probably haven’t, that I’ve been selling shares in some companies which I am heavily invested in. This is because times are uncertain and success with a few of my favourites, have left them a little top heavy in their pricing territory.
“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” – Napoléon Bonaparte
The chart below is fascinating and not just for bearded craft beer loving hispters such as pizza Hardman Darren Atwater. It tells you everything you need to know about capitalism as we come to the end of the bull market era of funny money. You can read across from this to so many other parts of the economy.
The stage is set for the possible collapse of the world’s largest economy, the European Union and the trigger will be Italy’s exit from the euro currency. The Financial Times recently put it this way: "An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the Eurozone within a very short period. It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash."
Hello Share Grinders. The falling pound always seems like a disaster. And It is to holidaymakers and students who are studying broad, like my daughter at the moment. But there is no need to be glum if you are a shareholders. There’s no doubt in my mind that the current soaraway Footsie is because we have brilliant companies over here. Not!!
Hello Share Spinners. Well, that was a dismal end to the week. All caused by problems with the German banks. It seems however fast the Footsie goes up, there is always another whammy waiting round the corner. But let’s not be too despondent. This could be another of those things the City does so well - the nine day wonder. Soon the German bank crisis will be forgotten and we should see our shares rising stoically once more.
Yesterday I served up pictures of four Welsh folks and asked for the odd one out and - to the suprise of some readers, as you can see HERE, it had nothing to do with sheep. The four pictured taffies were: Cerys Matthews the gorgeous lead singer with the uber-Welsh group Catatonia ( part of the cool Cymru scene of the 1990s), Welsh windbag Neil Kinnock, Welsh soccer star Gareth Bale and David Williams the uber Welsh CEO of Avanti Communications (AVN) who had a rather bad day at the office yesterday and is going to have another shocker today
Death spiral providers Bergen are vultures. They are not nice folks. They are not long term investors. But they are not dumb either. They know that shares in African Potash (AFPO) are set to crash and so today Bergen has exercised 63.7 million warrants at 0.3p under some old deal it had. Oh dear. The shares will be admitted to trading on Wednesday but Bergen won't be waiting for then. Oh no.
Etai Friedman has been digging deep into the causes behind the widening of the spread in the credit markets. The 2008 crisis was caused by too much mortgage debt and debt in general and the federal Reserve has propagated even more debt this time. The world is not able to service any more debt.
Back in the 1970’s as recession gripped the world for a decade, stocks stagnated and commodities crashed, investor Jim Rogers made a fortune and his understanding of markets, capital flows and timing is legendary. As crisis struck in late 2008, he did it again, often recommending gold and silver to those looking for wealth preservation strategies and warned that the crash would lead to massive job losses, dependence on government bailouts, and unprecedented central bank printing on a global scale. Now, Rogers says that investors around the world are realizing that the party is over and Stocks are over bloated and central banks will have little choice but to take action again.
I gave this presentation in Clerkenwell last night. I am not predicting a crash but I am suggesting that the debt and QE bubble is only starting to unwind and will go much further
Peter Schiff is a libertarian hero of mine. He called the 2008 crash brilliantly - its causes and what would happen. Now he calls the great crash of 2016. This interview with Schiff is frightening and compelling and what he says about the US also applies to Britain. Schiff thinks we are sleepwalking to insolvency. Show me how he is wrong!
Let’s have another look at China. I was talking at length the other day with an economist from Shanghai. It was not a vital meeting between high power financiers, like myself, and a top moneyman from the Communist party.
Hello Gaag… Well, there’s always something to worry about, isn’t there? It used to be sub-prime mortgages, followed by crumbling UK banks. Then it was Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. Then, when we thought it had all gone quiet, it seems that Greece was still in a mess. It threatened to pull European shares down - but compromise was worked out and nothing happened.
Hello Share Freakies. May I offer a few opinions on the way the world economies are going - and, to adapt the famous line from Harold Wilson - their effect on the shares in our pocket.
Hello Share Snappers. You may remember that, in the film China Syndrome, with Jack Lemmon, a nuclear power plant in America starts to disappear into the earth. There is a fear that it will get a long way down, hence the title.
Hello Share Swingers. One of the earliest saying of Warren Buffet, the world’s second richest man who did it all with shares, was this. It doesn’t matter if the stock markets are falling - as long as you don’t want the money in a hurry.
Hello Share Milkers. In the classic 'sixties Batman movie - the one before they started to get dark and boring - the caped crusader was seen charging around a harbour trying to find a safe place to throw a smoking big black ball.
I am a gold bull on fundamentals but apparently the charts say that precious metals are about to take a nosedive. Well that is what my colleague at Palisade Capital, Jordan Roy Byrne said in our weekly podcast this week. Oh dear, could it get worse? Er..yes. As a bonus Jordan also thinks that shares are set to crash.
Tom Winnifrith moves to his back garden underneath the fig tree to record a video postcard on bubbles: The IPO market and residential property.