Another tax rise, it won’t go away if oil prices fall, it will last until 2028, the sky is falling, the oil and gas business has suffered yet another blow, it’s finished, our day in the sun has gone. Or maybe not. 

It’s been a while since we’ve had a new IPO of a large oil and gas company in the UK, so Ithaca Energy (ITH) caught my attention, especially as it is a company that I had followed previously when it was listed.

I3 Energy (I3E) has enjoyed a miraculous turnaround in fortunes over the past couple of years, thanks to buying new assets at the right time and benefitting from high oil and gas prices since then.

Whilst I’m generally wary of investing in small oil and gas companies, occasionally one comes along that appears to be in the right place, at the right time, and with the right assets and management team.

The new ‘windfall’ tax on UK oil and gas producers has been all over the news this week, and whilst many of the public seem to be celebrating the fact that these ‘evil’ companies and their investors are going to take a hit, I’m not so sure the new rules are quite so great.

A real buzz seems to have returned to the oil and gas sector in recent times and with commodity prices at their strongest for several years, and that even seems to be trickling down to the lower end of the market and the explorers now with some shares on a real rip.

Serica Energy (SQZ) has seen a sizeable drop in its share price over the past couple of days, and the news that landed this morning suggests that some got wind of this before the official RNS announcement. TW Note. Surely you are not suggesting insider dealing on the AIM sewer, the “world’s most succesful growth market” – surely not?

Sometimes I look at a company and think its shares are just too cheap at the current market cap and is pretty much being priced to fail, yet in some cases there certainly doesn’t appear to be anything fundamentally wrong that suggests that to be the situation.

I3 Energy (I3E) has been a great example of why past failure doesn’t necessarily point to a continuation of that in the future – in the same way that past success doesn’t mean that a company or management team will manage the same again.

Oil has been on a bit of a charge recently and there aren’t any real signs of that strength coming to an end anytime soon, but quite a few of the producers haven’t responded as well as you would expect, in terms of share price movement.

When I covered Longboat Energy (LBE) last July there was much derision on social media and bulletin boards over my opinion that the company was well overvalued at the share price at that time, but it has just announced that it is raising funds at discount of around 40% to that level in order to complete an acquisition.

The oil and gas market is quite hard to read at the moment, particularly when it comes to individual companies which are producing, as some have seen large share price rises whilst others barely seem to have moved despite the fundamentals appearing to be strong.

Quite often ShareProphets readers contact us asking for an opinion on a particular company, and I’m always happy to take a look – although there is no guarantee that the conclusions I come to will necessarily be what they wanted to hear about the company!

EnQuest (ENQ) is a company that I have followed for a long time and have previously been invested in myself, but over the past few years its shares have performed terribly and has never really recovered from the previous oil price slump, which bottomed out in 2016.

As any regular readers here will know, I’ve been a fan of Serica Energy (SQZ) for many years and during that time have watched it grow into a mid-tier oil and gas producer, and I believe that now is the time to consider investing in the company once again.

The level of trust that you have in the management of a company can often play a big part in your willingness to invest.

Longboat Energy (LBE) is a company that I actually like and hope does well longer term but, having seen its share price double, I’m finding it hard to see where the value is up here and would be inclined to at least bank some profit...

I had been wondering when further news would come from i3 Energy (I3E) and these week two significant RNSs dropped on the same morning, which ultimately led to shares being suspended for the foreseeable future.

Tom Winnifrith highlighted my current views on the oil price in a bearcast earlier this week. As most know I can see the good in just about any investment case, it’s just that most of the time the bad is just so much more compelling. Where is the oil price going? I do not know – who does?! But after years of supply side focus, I see the risk firmly on the demand side. Could oil price go negative? – yep for some grades, and perhaps all,  I can see why that is not an outrageous statement.

I wouldn’t be rushing to buy shares in any companies at the moment, and probably even less so in anything natural resources related, unless you are prepared to take a fair amount of risk and have a very long-term time frame. The safest option is to just sit on cash and wait for not only the markets, but also the world economy, to turn around whenever we do finally see the back of this virus. You won’t get to buy in at the bottom if you wait for the trend to change, but you shouldn’t also suddenly find that the shares you bought are now another 50% lower! However...

I3 Energy (I3E) was one of the most popular oil shares on AIM last summer and autumn, but the situation is very different now after a number of failures operationally.

Making a profit on small oil and gas exploration and appraisal companies largely comes down to timing your buys and sells correctly, rather than just holding onto your shares through the ups and downs. With many of these companies the actual risk of holding for a drill often isn’t worth it, especially with exploration plays, but good money can still be made in the lead up to drilling activity, and by leaving some profit to run in the case of some of the safer appraisals. Buying when there is a general lack of interest and no immediate operational activity, and then being patient, is often the best way to get in at a good price – even if not necessarily the lowest price, as that generally comes down to a large slice of luck...

I3 Energy (I3E) is a company which I had high hopes for and have continued to keep the faith with despite being far from happy with the way that the board of directors has handled things during the current drilling campaign. Having screwed up the first Liberator pilot well, which was supposed to have determined the location for a first production well next year on its North Sea licence, and then operationally redeemed itself to some extent by striking oil during an appraisal of its nearby Serenity licence area, and proving that to be an extension of the adjacent Tain field, all eyes have been on the second Liberator pilot drill...

I3 Energy (I3E) has certainly had its share of ups and downs during its current drilling campaign, but I can still see the potential for shares in this to come good.

There seem to be a number of mid-sized oil producers which have fallen out of favour with investors for quite some time now, and I’d definitely have to include North Sea-focussed EnQuest (ENQ) high up on that list...

Any negative news on an oil drill tends to see the share price getting hammered, and that is exactly what has happened today after I3 Energy (I3E) announced that a pilot well had failed to hit the reservoir that it was targeting.

RockRose Energy (RRE) has been one of the real success stories amongst smaller oil and gas producing companies in recent times and has grown its business at an incredible rate via a number of acquisitions. It has come an awful long way since I first covered it as a buy here back in April 2018 at around the 350p level, and today it relisted following a deal which constituted a reverse takeover of the Marathon UK and Marathon West of Shetland assets for $140 million. Currently it is trading at around the 1,900p level with a market cap of circa £240 million, representing a profit of nearly 450% for anyone who followed my original buy recommendation...

I3 Energy (I3E) has had a bit of a bumpy ride of late, largely thanks to some untrue rumours which were being spread by certain individuals on social media, but the uncertainty has now been resolved following the latest news from the company...

Smaller North Sea oil and gas companies seem to be out of favour, as investors go chasing big profits in riskier, less proven parts of the world, but more often than not the outcome tends to be heavy losses on these types of outfits.

For junior resource companies which aren’t actually producing anything yet, larger movements in the share price are usually dictated by newsflow relating to the operational side of things, rather than by fluctuations in commodity prices. Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) has gone through a period where not a lot has been happening drilling-wise, and as a result it has seen its share price bouncing around within a fairly tight range for this sort of stock...

Premier Oil (PMO) has always been highly geared towards movements in the oil price, so it is hardly surprising that its share price has been dropping recently.

A brief look at Cairn Energy (CNE) would leave many wondering how on earth the company can be worth its current market cap of more than £1.15 billion. Especially when you consider that although it is an oil producer, in H1 2018 it only averaged 14,400boepd, and there are many others on the market producing those sort of quantities with much lower market valuations. What you would be missing though is the fact that this company has huge future growth potential, both from increased production from its existing Kracken and Catcher operations in the North Sea, but far more importantly from the future development of the SNE field in Senegal and Nova in Norway.

With oil prices remaining buoyant and this trend looking likely to continue going forwards, there are still plenty of opportunities to invest in companies in this sector.

Almost out of cash, Andalas Energy (ADL) is gearing up for a bucket shop placing c/o joint bucket shop brokers Novum Securities & Optiva in the usual way: a ramptastic podcast with PR genius Steffi, 2 ramptastic RNS announcements and a ramptastic paid for podcast with Vox.  The trouble is that its claims have now been directly contradicted by its partner in the North Sea Badger field, Atlantic Petroleum (see HERE). If it turns out that Andalas was making unverifiable fantasy claims, as it appears, and raises money at an artificial price on the back of that, this would be a clear case of Securities fraud. In order to stop that the shares must be suspended at once pending a statement.  I have written to the fake Sheriff of AIM, Marcus Stuttard at AIM Regulation as you can see below.

I have already flagged up comments by those close to Atlantic Petroleum, which showed that in a desperate attempt to ramp its shares ahead of yet another bailout placing, Andalas (ADL) was over-egging the Badger Pudding. Now Atlantic has gone on the record in a way that exposes Andalas big time and surely Nomad Beaumont Cornish must now force Andalas to issue a correction and stop its misleading pre-placing ramping?

Andalas Energy (ADL) has undergone a change of management and has also switched its asset focus in an attempt to turn things around from the disaster it has been ever since it changed its name from CEB Resources back in late 2015.

I do not wish to fall out with my pal Brokerman Dan or with PR Genius Steffi but I think that their enthusiasm for Andalas Energy (ADL) is misplaced because the company is just not being 100% upfront with investors about its new great hope, the Badger prospect in the North Sea.

Some positive sentiment finally seems to be returning to UK offshore oil and gas companies, and Cluff Natural Resources (CLNR) could be in a position to benefit from that. Things have been pretty dire for the North Sea focused company, and although its assets revolve around gas, which has performed badly in comparison to oil of late, any renewed interest in the area should be of benefit.

Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) hasn’t had much luck in the past, having managed to get a decent sized field into production it was subsequently hammered by the collapse in the oil price.

I can understand why longer term investors in Parkmead Group (PMG) may be somewhat unimpressed with the performance of the share price recently, but the company itself is continuing to make good progress. I hold shares in the company myself, and whilst the share price has generally been trading in the mid-30p to low-40p range, in spite of the strength that the oil price has been showing in recent months, I’m happy to remain invested and see how things unfold in the coming months and years.

Given that I have closely followed the Serica Energy (SQZ) story here closely over the last few years, and in light of the news this week, I felt that I should give my current thoughts on it.

When it comes to the AIM resources sector, any sort of delay or news which is perceived to be negative can have a negative effect on the share price which is far from justified. Of course there is a lot of junk on the market and when bad news comes and it inevitably crashes, it is of no real surprise, but there are other companies where a temporary hit to the share price can present a great buying opportunity.

Delays to the Kraken field reaching full production levels could prove costly for EnQuest (ENQ), as it will leave a large gap in expected revenues up until that point.

Usually it takes far longer for companies to move forwards operationally than the majority of investors expect, and it is at times when most people have become bored and moved on elsewhere, that opportunities can present themselves.

Hello Share Crunchers. I hold stock in an awful lot of oil producers, perhaps too many. But one company which has never lit my fire is Cairn Energy (CNE). Maybe I should dip in, though.

The last couple of years have been a torrid time for those holding shares in small oil and gas exploration companies in general, with very few exceptions.

Oil has been enjoying a good run over the past couple of months and many producers have seen that rise reflected in the share price of those companies.

This morning brought news that the covenant test for Premier Oil (PMO) has been delayed for the third time. While the support from the lending group is to be welcomed, the continuing need for deferral proves that the company's equity holders remain on a financial tightrope.

Premier Oil (PMO) has just released its interim results, but I’m not convinced they are quite as rosy as they might initially appear at first glance.

I am often left struggling to find smaller oil companies that actually look a good investment, as opposed to just a gamble on a single big drill, or where all of the potential future value is in the ground with no actual plan or finance in place to get it out!

I previously noted the importance of a successful conclusion to Premier Oil’s (PMO) bank lender discussions, and made the case that a very large equity raise was probably needed to put the company back on a sound footing. This morning finally sees some news on those lender discussions, made necessary by Premier’s inability to satisfy its covenants.

Yesterday in Part 1, I outlined the gravity of the situation facing Premier Oil’s (PMO) equity investors. In that piece, I presented my view that the purchase of E.ON’s North Sea assets was an attempt to temporarily fix a covenant breach situation, but that any profits it generates are unlikely to be material against Premier’s debt pile.

Anyone lucky enough to buy independent exploration and production company Premier Oil (PMO) around the January lows achieved a two-bagger in quick time as the shares rallied rapidly from around 20p to achieve a high of 75p last month. It is currently capitalised at £360 million ($500 million) and is a favourite on the bulletin boards. Sadly, it’s not yet clear that Premier has its house in order. There could be some serious pain yet to come.

North Sea oil and gas producer Ithaca Energy (IAE) provided an interim report this morning which has reassured investors that long-awaited production in the Stella oil field will be coming soon. But the shares still carry an extraordinary amount of risk.

I continue the theme of what capitalism really means from yesterday's bonus bearcast on the news that North Sea oil companies want Chancellor George Osborne to use your hard earned cash to bail them out. I explain why the Chancellor needs to ignore this completely even if it means that the North Sea basically goes bust taking a number of listed companies - I mention XCite (XEL) specifically - with it. Sorry, I don't care if Aberdeen becomes a ghost town. Taxpayers from the profitable part of the economy should NEVER subsidise loss making sectors, be they milk farmers, oil companies or the Yorkshire coal miners that the great and much missed Maggie Thatcher quite rightly put on the dole.

Shares in Xcite Energy (XEL) are up 6.25% this morning on news of the company’s farm-in with Azinor Catalyst Limited. Under the terms of the deal, Azinor has the opportunity to earn into the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Licence P.1979, held by Xcite’s subsidiary Xcite Energy Resources. In return for completing a technical evaluation and then possibly an Induced Polarization survey of P.1979, Azinor could receive as much as 50% of the licence’s equity. On the face of it this looks like decent enough news for Xcite. The deal should enable progress at this non-core asset, allowing the company to focus on its flagship Bentley project. However, Xcite is giving up a significant proportion of P.1979 in return. The question now is, can this deal deliver value to shareholders?

This is a question close to my heart as in The Steam Oil Production Company we have a good few barrels of undeveloped reserves, so I do pay attention to how the AIM market seems to value undeveloped barrels in the ground, especially those in the UK & Ireland.

North Sea oil is hardly something that I would generally be rushing to put money into at the moment. The collapse in the price of Brent has led to lots of job cuts recently and cutbacks in the development of new assets – some of which are no longer viable at current oil prices. But some companies might be, including possibly Faroe Petroleum (FPM).

Underground coal gasification (UCG) and North Sea gas play Cluff Natural Resources (CLNR) has called for drastic changes in the planning regime for UCG projects and in the tax treatment of exploration for resources in the UK North Sea. The AIM-quoted company, with licences in Scotland, north-west England and Wales, wants to establish a pilot UCG plant at Kincardine in the the Firth of Forth and is seeking partners to drill two appraisal gas wells in licences in the north-western Lytham Field ‘at no cost to ourselves’, having reduced interim losses nearly 8% to £745,000.

I wrote before about my calculations of the breakeven point for some recent and some upcoming North Sea projects, but time marches on and cost estimates and reserve estimates change so I thought it worth updating the picture.

Last week the Chancellor offered some relief to a North Sea industry suffering from high costs and low oil prices. He didn't do it out of the kindness of his heart but rather to keep new projects coming online and to make investment in old fields that bit more attractive.

I have posted before on the breakeven oil price for some North Sea developments and then in this follow-up post I extended that analysis to make rough and ready estimates of how the net present value per barrel varied with oil price for most of those projects.  

When the oil price is in three figures there isn't too much angst about what price it takes to payback the investment in a project, but flirt with forty dollars a barrel for a fortnight and suddenly breakeven price is the metric in vogue.

At oil prices of less than $50/bbl not many North Sea projects look very profitable, especially when you evaluate the investments with the costs operators have become accustomed to paying over the last three or four years. But in a low oil price environment demand for services will fall and when demand falls, prices will fall too. But how far and how fast?

 Given how oil stocks have been slaughtered recently it might seem as bit silly to even be considering buying any. Especially when some commentators are forecasting Armageddon with oil prices slipping even lower to previously unimaginable levels – I’ve even seen mention of $40 per barrel being seen! 

It seems that OPEC is willing to keep production at the same level 30 million barrels per day as before. The oil price has duly tanked so is this bad news for all oil companies? 

Ithaca Energy (IAE) is definitely one of the more stable oil companies listed on AIM and its shares look set for a good rise from 132p. 

For my first article on ShareProphets I highlight as a buy Hurricane Energy (HUR) where the upside is massive and risks less than almost any other oil exploration and production company listed on AIM

There are currently two technical issues and one fundamental issue of note regarding North Sea focused Oil & Gas group Xcite Energy (XEL). The technicals in terms of the charting picture remain flattered as they have been for the past 6 weeks by the way that new support for the stock has started to come in at and above the former January 110p intraday peak.