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Even a few of our detractors have now come around
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its year ended 30th April 2022, with it emphasising “a strong improvement in profitability and high cash generation… The new financial year has started well, building on the momentum”. This sounds good.
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM), the specialist investor in early stage financial services businesses, has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2022, emphasising its growth trajectory despite the current “headwinds for all businesses”.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that it still expects 2022 average production to increase to 15,500-18,500 boe/d. So what of a share price slipping to 101p in response?
Lucian Miers wrote here a couple of weeks ago about Fevertree (FEVR) where he remains short. There may be some people laughing at him as the fizzy drinks group fairly promptly served up a trading statement suggesting that it was on track to meet forecasts. But that is looking in the rear-view mirror. What is important is what happens going forward.
Floorcoverings distributor group Headlam (HEAD) has issued an AGM trading update including that it “continues to be comfortable with profit expectations for the year”. So what of a current 338p share price?
Miner in Azerbaijan, Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) states that it “is pleased to announce its final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2021”. However, the shares are down to 85p to buy in response.
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) “is pleased to announce the acquisition of PackMann Gesellschaft für Verpackungen und Dienstleistungen mbH, a protective packaging distribution business based in Eppelheim near Heidelberg, Germany”, emphasising it is to accelerate the growth of its protective packaging business in Northern Europe. Crazy name eh! German is such an amazing language. But a good deal.
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its half year ended 31st March 2022 emphasising “stabilisation of our core combustible business” and “successful consumer trials validate our approach and strengthen our confidence in our Next Generation Product strategy”. This sounds encouraging.
Gold miner in Kazakhstan, AltynGold (ALTN) states that it “is pleased to announce its 1Q22 production update” and the shares have moved up to 130p, so what’s the latest?...
Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced a performance update of its new and expanded fully integrated South African Inyoni PGM and chrome operations and its Zambian southern copper strategy. So what’s the situation, with the shares having responded up to 15.4p?
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced “a solid start to 2022, with first quarter sales and profits from continuing operations ahead of the same period in 2021… expectations for the full year are unchanged”. So what of a current 120.5p share price?
Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced quarterly results including “net profit of $21.2 million… cash balance of $138.0 million (Q2: $110.1 million)… production is expected to increase significantly during the next quarter due to progress at Lesedi and the improvements identified post quarter end at Mooinoi”. So what of a current around 90p share price?
BP (BP.) has announced a first quarter of the year $20.4 billion loss... though also reduced net debt to $27.5 billion, a maintained 5.46 cents per share dividend and a proposed further $2.5 billion share buyback. So what’s going on?
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced year ending 30th April “trading in line with management expectations… enter the next financial year with confidence”, helping the shares up to 325.6p.
Fresnillo (FRES) has announced first quarter of the year production including attributable silver production of 13.28 million ounces and gold production of 0.15 million ounces and that, despite challenges, “2022 guidance remains unchanged”.
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced 2021 calendar year results and that it “is very well placed for the year ahead and investors will have a lot of news to digest”.
Cybersecurity group Shearwater (SWG) has emphasised a “set of market-beating numbers… we remain excited for what the future holds”. What of a share price response up to 140p?
Centamin (CEY) has announced a quarterly update including “as planned, Q1 2022 production reflected the successful transition to owner mining in the underground… reiterates its 2022 full-year guidance”, so what of a share price response currently down closer to 90p?
Shares in Flowtech Fluidpower (FLO) remain below levels of earlier this year despite recent results showing encouraging recovery and noting an encouraging start to this year, with there looking to be scope for further recovery in profitability and for the share price.
In response to some dynamite exposes on Shareprophets about Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (COPL), the company released a bizarre RNS in which the sole executive, Arthur Millholland, dismissed his critics, mainly Tom Winnifrith, as snake oil salesmen and expressed “renewed confidence” about the future. Pots and kettles spring to mind here when Millholland’s track record is taken into consideration.
Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has issued a trading update announcement which is headlined “Expected performance ahead of expectations driven by increased demand”. This sounds good.
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced in a trading update “first-half adjusted group operating profit ahead of last year on constant currency basis” and full-year outlook in line with guidance.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st December 2021 which show revenue of just £21,949, cash £1.5 million lower to £3.2 million and include a warning that full-year forecasts will be materially missed – and the shares have responded down to 35p. But here’s why we retain significant confidence and see this as a buying opportunity. From here this could be a 10 bagger.
Europe’s leading floorcoverings distributor group Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced its results for the 2021 calendar year and said “trading in January and February 2022 in line with plan, with the strong margin performance in 2021 maintained into 2022”.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has issued a trading update commenting that 2021 “total invoiced sales for the group were £2.2m (2020: £1.5m) an increase of 46.7% on the previous year and in line with market expectations” and including that it “has made good progress against its stated aims of focusing on a smaller number of large partners in key strategic markets and expects to see the benefits of these in 2022 and beyond”. What does that mean at the bottom-line?
Recent Income recommendation Rio Tinto (RIO) has announced record results for 2021 and that it is “targeting disciplined investment in commodities that will see strong demand in the coming decades”.
PGMs tailings materials retreatment company in South Africa Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st December 2021, noting a net profit of $24.4 million, “cash balance at 31 December 2021 of $110.1 million (HY1 FY2021: $67.1 million)” and that it is expecting second half-year PGM ounce production improvement.
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that 2022 trading in the early months has been “encouraging” and that it is confident it will deliver further growth.
Given the hysteria surrounding the situation in Ukraine over the weekend, the falls in Western-listed Russian names were relatively muted with most being down low single digit percentages on Monday. The exception to this appeared to be FTSE 100 constituent Evraz plc (EVR), the steel producer and coal miner with major operations in Russia and Ukraine. The stock which had closed on Friday at 444p opened at 285p, showing a decline of 159p or 35%. The press was quick to latch on to this “carnage”:
Jadestone Energy (JSE) states that it “is pleased to provide its guidance outlook for 2022”, including noting that it expects to generate material incremental cash at current oil prices and premiums and may consider an increase in shareholder returns through increased dividends and/or share buy-backs later in the year. Sounds good.
BP plc (BP.) has announced fourth quarter and full year 2021 results and argues “strong progress” in its transformation to an ‘integrated energy company’.
Jubilee Metals (JLP) states that it “is pleased to announce its unaudited operational results for the six months to 31 December 2021” and that it looks forward to “the next six months with the full impact of the Inyoni facility being felt, as well as the targeted ramp-up at Roan enabling us to take another major step in our commitment to achieve annual copper production of 25 000 tonnes”. So what of a current 16.3p share price, £396 million market capitalisation?
AltynGold (ALTN) has made a “4th Quarter results” announcement and states that it is “positive that we will deliver even better numbers in the coming year”. So what’s the detail?…
Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its quarter ended 31st December 2021, including cash of $110.1 million and “significant progress in terms of access to additional chrome tailings resources at both the Eastern and Western Operations”.
Staffing group Impellam (IPEL) has announced it has agreed to sell its US-based light industrial business Corestaff for $19 million (approx. £14 million) to US private digital staffing company Swipejobs and is to subsequently pay down net debt and fund additional investment.
This has been a very good share tip for our readers but there is more to come. Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced that “2021 production averaged 12,545 boe/d, in line with expectations” and “cash balances at the end of the year are estimated at US$117.4 million, representing an increase of 30% year-on-year, even after the largest spending programme in the company’s history”. This sounds encouraging.
Lucian Miers and myself have repeatedly called out Cineworld (CINE) as a compelling short and those who have followed our calls have prospered. But the FT, the home of almost every wrong call in history from backing the UK joining the Euro to selling its gold in 1997, runs a story “Cineworld debt pile set to save cinema operator from bankruptcy.” You might think this is a reason to buy. Au contaire. A resting banksta writes to me to explain.
These shares are already lower since this article first appeared on the N50 website just yesterday but they look to have much further to fall as, at last, it seems that we might have reached a point where equity fund managers, suddenly fearful rather than greedy, are taking a look at their portfolios to have a closer look at exactly what they hold.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) was one of our tips of the year, with we anticipating financial progress as its deals for its compounds expand and further deals kick-in. It has now announced that a further human volunteer study on its cholesterol-reducing probiotic LPLDL - on a different population group of hypercholesterolemic adults – has shown “at six weeks, when volunteers taking placebo were compared to those taking LPLDL, there were statistically significant changes to clinically important cardiovascular risk”, including “34.2% reduction in total cholesterol (p=0.001)”.
Following recently a shareholding transaction in an investee company further suggesting value, B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has now announced another deal suggesting the same.
Shares in The Hut Group, THG plc (THG), listed at 500p in September 2020, then zoomed to 800p but now trade below 200p. Even so this business is still valued by the market at £2.2 billion.
This is a market where being short can be exceedingly painful. As Gabriel Grego found out the other day, even what appear to be slam dunk frauds can roof it. This is what happens at the fag end of a bull market. But in the UK, I sense that there is now real ennui among investors, both institutional and the spivs at the bucket shops, when it comes to placings.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has followed a sales agreement with Apollo Hospitals Enterprises for its GoFigure weight management product range in India with an agreement for GoFigure and SlimBiome Medical in Saudi Arabia (KSA). Is this further encouraging progress or just more flannel?
An already widespread virus mutating to what is being seen clinically as “extremely mild cases”. Not bad news then… except in Airstrip One – and a resultant very negative stock market reaction. However government response madness is gradually being revealed and travel and leisure should resultantly gradually recover, though some share prices here remain depressed. Opportunity?…
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st October 2021 and that it has “confidence to deliver a significant improvement in profitability during the second half of this year” following an increased pre-tax profit to £175 million in the first half.
Previously writing on Essentra (ESNT) we noted ‘Q3 update, adds corporate excitement potential’ with the company “reviewing the full range of strategic options for the Filters business” with it aiming to become a pure play Components business over time, targeting strategic focus and an acceleration of organic and inorganic growth. Now a further “Strategic Update” and a “Directorate Change”.
Although the S&P 500 index is still around all time highs, there have been some savage declines of late in certain names and 275 stocks are lower now than they were six months ago. This suggests to me that the health of the US markets is much more fragile and precarious than the level of the three main indices implies.
Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has announced results for its half-year ended 30th September 2021 emphasising “a strong and continuing recovery in all of our businesses”. This sounds encouraging.
Evil Knievil: “the best time to kick a man is when he is down.” The great bear raider is correct, especially in these crazy times when so many frauds or near bankrupts seem able to defy gravity as the believers still belief and continue to BOTFD, so providing share price support. But in some cases even the believers are starting to smell the coffee.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced results for its year ended 30th June 2021 emphasising “transformational” progress. So what is this?
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has published a trading update including news that it “now expects the group will exceed its previous expectations for the full year”. Sounds good!
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced the launch of a new sports nutrition product range, LeanBiome, with a supply & licensing agreement with “a leading global player in beauty & nutrition”. What of a current share price response up to 42.5p?
I write after a day in which shares rallied sharply after Friday’s big sell-off. That shakedown was on fears that the Botswana covid variant or rather the extreme over-reaction to it given the level of hospitalizations and deaths it has caused (0 & 0) could see corporate earnings hammered. I noted on Friday that the sell off was driven by a false fear. Surely even the lunatics in charge of the asylum we call Britain will soon have to accept that the Omicron (an anagram of moronic) variant is no great threat and thus the new lockdown measures will have to be reversed and thus the impact on PLC earnings will be trivial. One would hope so. That growing realisation that our leaders have blundered is what, one suspects, drove the rally.
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) states it is pleased to announce its quarterly and nine-month results for the period ended 30th September 2021, with it emphasising “another strong quarter… robust operational performance, combined with strong copper prices, has seen our EBITDA for the first nine months of 2021 more than triple from the amount generated during the same period of 2020”. So what of a now more than 400p share price?
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its year ended 30th September 2021, emphasising “operational improvements supporting growth in net revenue, profit and free cash flow”.
Having been falling from early this month, shares in SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) are currently further lower after it announced “OptiBiotix Health Plc has placed 3,636,363 ordinary shares in SkinBioTherapeutics with new and existing institutional investors at a price of 55 pence per share”. With SkinBioTherapeutics CEO Stuart Ashman though arguing “the company is going from strength to strength” and “it is important to attract new investors who are keen to come on board to support us in the next stage of the company’s development, as a commercial entity”, why the further share price fall?
‘The best time to kick a man is when he is down’ is a quote from my friend the bear raider Simon Cawkwell, aka Evil Knievil. It is not a reference to individuals who have fallen on bad times for Cawkwell is, sometimes, not that uncharitable, but to shares in companies hitting new lows.
BP (BP.) has announced third quarter of the year results, emphasising it is delivering significant cash to strengthen finances, growing distributions to shareholders and investing in strategic transformation.
Recommended at a 282.5p offer price in August, shares in Essentra (ESNT) are currently up to 289p on the back of a “Strategic Update and Q3 2021 Trading”-titled announcement. Good news.
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced for its half-year it is more than offsetting significant input cost increases, helped by continuing strong structural drivers of growth.
Since, a few weeks ago, Matt Earl launched his first bear dossier on Civitas Social Housing (CSH) its shares have fallen by 25% to 91p. The company did issue a response to the first dossier published by the bear raider known as “the Dark Destroyer”.
Gold miner in Kazakhstan AltynGold (ALTN) has made an update on the third quarter of the year, with the shares up as it noted that despite lower gold prices “strong production dynamics” still meant revenue was marginally up.
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has published a third quarter update including that it is now increasing its production guidance for the year. This sounds like good news.
You can get borrow and you should. There is a collapsing long position on margin but the real reason to go aggressively short of Chill Brands (CHLL) is the deafening sound of silence. Let me explain.
Floorcoverings distributor Headlam (HEAD) has announced that Steve Wilson has “stepped down” as Chief Executive and from the company having “been instrumental in the company’s success throughout his 30 years with Headlam, the last five years as Chief Executive”. Bad news or time for a change?
Imperial Brands (IMB) is “pleased to report the business continues to perform well… on track to deliver our full-year results in line with expectations”. That suggests upside potential from a below 1500p share price.
Following half-year results from Jadestone Energy (JSE) recently, we noted the financial improvement despite challenges and that with the growth potential suggested the 77p share price too harsh an appraisal. There is now a “Montara H6 well successfully brought onstream”-titled announcement and the shares are further higher.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced its results for the first half of 2021, reaffirming full-year production guidance of 11,500-13,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and anticipating 20,000 boe/d towards the end of the year. We are well up on this 69p offer price share tip but where do we go from here?
Early stage financial services businesses investment company B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has made a trading update for its half-year ended 31st July 2021, including that its “portfolio has performed well during the period, and we expect this to continue through the group’s current financial year”.
Gold miner in Kazakhstan, AltynGold (ALTN) has announced its results for the first half of 2021 and that the results of its capital expenditure “look promising”.
I have been a critic of Argo Blockchain (ARB) for an awfully long time. It is run by sharp promoters and backed by some nasty spivs. And it seems to me that it has failed woefully to address the issues flagged up a few weeks ago in the recent Boatman bear dossier HERE.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has delivered a “Business Update” including that the commercial launch of AxisBiotix-Ps is on track for Q4 and has further encouraging potential, that SkinBiotix manufacturing scale-up with Croda (CRDA) is progressing to schedule and 30th June year-end cash totalled £4.6 million. Sounds good.
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced a maiden JORC Mineral Resource for its Zafar polymetallic deposit in the Gedabek contract area, Azerbaijan, which it argues is “extremely encouraging and will help underpin the company’s future long-term production growth”.
On February 3 2021 I published a damning 60 Red flag dossier on a fraud called Zoetic (ZOE) with the shares at 76p. The response was utterly poisonous.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced further growth with an agreement to extend the territories of its deal with Seed Health.
BP (BP.) has announced second quarter of the year results emphasising “generating value for our shareholders today while we transition the company for the future”. Sounds good, but what’s the detail?
Early in July we noted shares in Europe’s leading floorcoverings distributor Headlam Group (HEAD) looked a recovery buy at a 495p offer price, considering there clear potential for outperformance of forecasts based on the trading momentum and the operational improvement programme being implemented. A “Pre-Close Trading Update” sees the shares currently at 528p. Is there still further upside?
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has made a “Trading and commercial update” including that sales are ahead of its expectations for the first six months of the year and that it “believes it is in a strong position to meet or exceed its full year sales forecast”. The shares have currently responded up to 49.5p but there looks much further to go.
International staffing group Impellam (IPEL) has announced results for the first half of the year and that it is seeing “increasing positivity in our customer demands for our managed service and talent solutions across our markets”. This sounds encouraging.
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has announced second quarter of the year results, including stating “strong commercial execution” and “we are likely to deliver full-year Adjusted EPS towards the better end of our guidance range”. So where now for the shares?, with they currently having responded back up to 1400p.
DS Smith (SMDS) “is pleased to announce the proposed sale of its De Hoop paper mill in the Netherlands to De Jong Packaging for a cash consideration of €50 million (c. £43 million)”. Good news from this leading provider of sustainable paper-based packaging?
Bulls and bears in tech investment company Tern plc (TERN) can at least agree on one thing: the key to the investment case is its holding in Device Authority Ltd (DA Ltd), a provider of security solutions for IOT products. Tern holds 56.8% of DA Ltd’s equity and has to date lent it £3.1 million in convertible loan stock. The stake is carried at £12.8 million on the balance sheet (valuing the whole company at £22.5 million), representing 58% of the value of the portfolio. It is DA Ltd’s perceived potential that has seen Tern’s shares trade at multiples of its book value and been the hook upon which it has hung the majority of its 16 placings to date.
We previously updated on Wm Morrison Supermarkets (MRW) including noting Apollo Global Management stating that “it is, on behalf of certain investment funds managed by it, in the preliminary stages of evaluating a possible offer for Morrisons” meant that we could still see further upside potential with a competitive bid situation developing. There has now been a further announcement from Apollo.
A trading update earlier this month from Headlam Group (HEAD) included “total revenue for the year-to-date is now in-line with the 2019 comparator, having been slightly below for the four months to 30 April 2021” and “the company’s Operational Improvement Programme delivering revenue growth opportunities and cost improvements”. This combination suggests there is further recovery value in the shares.
There are two ways of viewing IQE plc (IQE). One, mine, is correct. The other, as pushed by the share promoters, the numerous corporate brokers and financiers who see its constant demands for fresh debt and equity as something of a gravy train, is not. Let’s start with those who are wrong.
FTSE-100 pharma and healthcare company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is currently engaged in somewhat of a battle with well known activist investor Elliott Advisors. However, that is about the level of change as change is coming and Elliott is only involved as it “believes GSK has a substantial value creation opportunity – 45% upside in its share price – ahead of Consumer Health separation and greater beyond”. We concur that there is an attractive value creation opportunity here…
At 425p, shares in fully fibre-based, innovative packaging for consumer goods company DS Smith (SMDS) are well up on our 321.8p offer price November recommendation but is there more to come, particularly following results for its year ended 30th April 2021 and “accelerated opportunities a post-Covid-19 world offers”?…
Wm Morrison Supermarkets (MRW) is “pleased to announce” a recommended offer for the company from Fortress Investment Group at 252p per share plus a 2p per share dividend. That compares to a 181.75p offer price recommendation on this website just in January this year…but also a current 267.5p share price. Why the latter?…
Misguided excitement over the imminent IPO of investee company Wyld Networks has propelled the shares of Tern plc (TERN) to 27.5p, giving it a market value of £88 million and providing, in my opinion, a decent entry point for a short position.
Lucian is short of Eurasia Mining (EUA) and for a host of reasons I think he is right to be short. One of those reasons is a mystery shareholder. Lucian has written to Eurasia’s boss Christian Schaffalitzky and his letter, still not having received a response after several days, follows:
Recommending shares in J Sainsbury (SBRY) as an Income portfolio buy in November at a 199.7p offer price, we noted grocery and general merchandise sales had remained strong to date in its second half of the year and suggested a 260p+ share price achievable. Little more than 7 months later the shares are already nearly there.
Insurance businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2021, emphasising “total shareholder return of 10.1% for the year including the dividend paid in July… remain optimistic that we will be able to secure scalable and high growth investments, which will deliver substantial shareholder returns over time”. That sounds good to us.
Lucian Miers wrote about one aspect of Eurasia Mining (EUA) that smells all wrong to him the other day. My friend and colleague is yet to get any satisfactory answers on that matter. But here is another oddity.
Miner in Azerbaijan Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) “is pleased to announce its final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2020” and emphasises “exciting development opportunities”. Though don’t they all say that?
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has announced what it describes as “strong financial results achieved in Q1 and look forward to the rest of the year, with confidence”. How strong?
Kazakhstan gold miner AltynGold (ALTN) “is pleased to announce its 1Q21 production results and financial update”, and the shares have currently responded approaching 10% higher to 172.5p. So what’s the news?
On banking near 300% gains on Jubilee Metals (JLP) earlier this year, we noted still significant positives but management actions which were not comfortably supportable. On fundamentals, at 20p, Jubilee still looks to have 10% upside, or arguably more, which is why Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore remain shareholders but we cannot, in good conscience, tip shares in a company where there are such clear corporate governance issues. So, on that basis, the following looks a good replacement for it .
Of course, there are some instances when it is appropriate to take legal action against some critic. If, for instance, the attacks are against wives and children, there is a threat of actual body harm or the allegations are just so outrageous (paedophilia for example) then a company might justifiably take action. But simply to bring in lawyers, who are always expensive, to try to silence someone who criticises a company’s business model, or its valuation, is a monumental red flag.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) is pleased to announce an agreement to acquire an interest in Peninsular Malaysia – and we can understand why.
J Sainsbury (SBRY) has announced results for its year ended 6th March 2021 and that it has “carried good underlying trading momentum into the new financial year and started the year strongly”.
Given that it has lied on an industrial scale to investors, regulators and consumers and managed first half sales of just £54,000, I think it will not surprise anyone terribly that I view the fair value of shares in Zoetic International (ZOE) as 0p. But I published all the evidence of the malfeasance and parlous financials and the shares still headed to well over 100p valuing this company at more than £200 million. That was two months ago. Now they are 57p to sell and falling fast. If you can short you should do so as this should be a penny stock really very soon.
Iron ore pellet producer in Ukraine, Ferrexpo (FXPO) has announced a first quarter 2021 production report which includes it noting some ongoing pelletiser upgrade work impact though also that there has been some additional production, in terms of high-grade concentrate…
An “update on progress towards net debt target”-titled announcement from BP (BP.), which includes a claim of “earlier than anticipated delivery of disposal proceeds combined with very strong business performance during the first quarter”. This sounds good…
Noting that “there is now an extensive growing body of research demonstrating direct links between the microbiome and the immune system, and consequently skin health”, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced initiation of a research programme with the University of Manchester.
Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) announced results for the 2020 calendar year emphasising “record revenue of US$829 million… generated significant free cash flow, of US$142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of US$104 million” but also ‘impacted guidance’. A recovery buy?
Ferrexpo (FXPO) has announced results for the 2020 calendar year and that it expects to deliver a further increase in production this year. It is all looking good…
Following recent Nalunaq project development delay disappointment, AEX Gold (AEXG) has noted progress in reviewing the development plan and of exploration work.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced a “Commercial strategy update” which shows strong progress in its strategy to initially build sales and brand presence and then move up the value chain by selling more product than ingredients and commercialising further compounds. We’ve also had a catch up chat with CEO Steve O’Hara. This should be THE YEAR when profits come close to or exceed £1 million.
Biffa plc (BIFF) describes itself as “the UK’s leading sustainable waste management business”. This FTSE 250 company has, like many, suffered from the lockdown restrictions but previously not as significantly as it feared and there looks further recovery and growth potential ahead not discounted in the share price…
In July we noted on Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) a provisional agreement for a “first enterprise outside of Azerbaijan”. Now it has announced those discussions have been terminated. Is a little changed share price response correct?
In these times of unprecedented uncertainty, it is not a great idea to make bold predictions about anything related to the markets and if ever there was a good time for sitting on the sidelines it is surely now. I will therefore make two not very bold and related predictions with which I feel comfortable…
Pensana (PRE) – now to be listed solely in London after giving notice to de-list in Australia - is progressing towards establishing the world’s first fully sustainable mine to magnet metal supply chain – materials for emerging industries including electric vehicles and wind turbines. The shares reached 120p early this year, since when the company has announced further progress towards its mine-to-magnet metal goal, but the shares are now lower…
Previously updating on BP (BP.), in October we concluded with the shares currently down to below 200p (they were above 500p early this year) and yielding around 8%, we continue to see long-term recovery and income value from here. Therefore, still a long-term Income buy. They’re currently still above 250p on the back of fourth quarter 2020 results but they are still cheap.
There is an “Update on Nalunaq Development” announcement from AEX Gold (AEXG) which we apologise for and about which CEO Eldur Olafsson was also very apologetic in a chat we’ve had. He damn well should be…
Kazakhstan gold miner AltynGold (ALTN) is “pleased to announce” a fourth quarter 2020 production update – and the shares have currently responded a pleasing circa 30% higher. So what’s behind the re-rate?…
Good News! There has been a ‘special dividend’ announcement from gold, copper and silver producer in Azerbaijan Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ), with it noting that it has delivered expected strong cash generation. So what’s the detail?…
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has updated investors on the status of its three restored contract areas located in formerly occupied territories and Nagorno Karabakh following the Azerbaijan & Armenia ceasefire agreement…
A “Support from Blue Chip Institutional Investors”-titled announcement from Jubilee Metals (JLP) is actually a disappointing lack of support from directors. This is with investment by the institutional investors ‘facilitated’ not only by a partial conversion of the convertible loan note held by ACAM LP, which facilitated the acquisition of the Sable Refinery in 2019, but also by director share sales…
We’ve produced an update on a positive trading statement from J Sainsbury (SBRY) but it is not the only one in its sector that, despite recent gains, looks to offer long-term income value…
Recent recommendation packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st October 2020 and that there’s “growing momentum into H2”…
AltynGold (ALTN) has updated on the third quarter of the year, stating that it is “pleased to announce” the results. So why has the share price response been a fall?…
We tipped Jubilee Metals (JLP) at a 4.6p offer in July 2020. Ding Dong! As we approach Christmas the shares are circa 11p, making we loyal investors pretty happy. But do not even think of selling. Here’s why:
Two weeks ago Remote Monitored Systems (RMS) shares traded at 2.65p giving the company a market cap of £40 million. I warned you then in this column and have since been double vindicated. The shares are 2.25p now but that is still far too high…
In my experience there are often opportunities to be had in shorting a company’s shares in the period after a debt restructuring deal has been announced as shareholders are generally slow to grasp the effect of the dilution on their interests…
An early this month “Pre-close statement” from DS Smith (SMDS) included “corrugated box volumes in and throughout Q2 have returned to growth… The step-change in use of e-commerce is clearly established across our territories with very high demand from customers for e-commerce packaging as we head into the festive season”. The shares responded higher… but the current share price compares to approaching 400p early this year and, with also a dividend expected for the company’s half-year which ended 31st October 2020, there looks further recovery value here…
We’ve previously noted on Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) some impact from the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia “due to the conscription of a number of engineering staff and some recently encountered temporary delays due to underground rock faulting”. Now “Updated Guidance for Turnover and Production”…
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its year ended 30th September 2020 and that, despite showing resilience, “we expect to deliver a stronger financial performance in 2021”…
Recently-announced results from J Sainsbury (SBRY) included “sales (excluding VAT) down 1.1 per cent” and “loss before tax £(137) million”. The shares responded lower – but that after recently rising and they are now back on the rise again and we can see why…
Metals processing group Jubilee Metals (JLP) “is pleased to announce its audited results for the year ended 30 June 2020” and that “post the period under review… PGM and chrome operations delivered record quarterly operational earnings of £15.17 million”…
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced updated mineral resources and ore reserves and that “our ongoing exploration programme targeting five new deposits is also expected to produce additional ore sources”…
In a recent MoneyWeek article, entitled “Bargain Britain”, its writer Max King asserts:
BP (BP.) has announced its Q3 results emphasising “Performance improving despite difficult environment”…
It is not just in mining juniors where some valuations are bonkers or among those stocks that have jumped onto the Covid bandwagon, madness seems writ large across the market. But perhaps there is a madness in valuations which cannot be justified on fundamentals and that is that the market is telling you that are living through another asset bubble?…
Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has updated emphasising “the third quarter marked another solid performance”, yet the shares have dropped back to 131.3p. The reason is a reduction in guidance for 2021 but the market has over-reacted…
What would you do if you were running a PLC with almost no cash and which was burning cash? It is a position I have been in and it is not a good place to be. You cut costs perhaps? Or you just do whatever is needed to raise fresh equity whatever the cost involved in doing that…
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced half-year results emphasising that its “diversified investment portfolio has shown its resilience, delivering NAV growth despite the ongoing market uncertainty. The outlook is positive for the rest of the year”…
We recommended shares in Centamin (CEY) amidst market panic in March and they rose faster than even we expected, seeing us take a more than 60%, little more than 1 month, profit. They went on to above 230p, but are currently 160p to buy following a “Sukari Operational Update”. We believe there to have been a big over-reaction to that update and so…
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) “announces the launch of meal replacement shakes and bars containing OptiBiotix’s OptiBiome® proprietary weight management technology under the Optislim® brand with Woolworths, Chemist Warehouse and on OptiPharm Pty Ltd’s online store in Australia and New Zealand”…
Readers may recall reading the following paragraph from a letter of 27th July by junior minister Amanda Solloway to fellow MP Bim Afolami, seeking to justify the £5 million loan made by Innovate UK to Versarien (VRS):
There is a small amount of borrow available to allow you to short Standard Listed Supply@ME Capital (SYME) and after this week you should, if you can, grab it with the shares at 0.44p. The market cap is still well over £100 million and this is a zero in waiting…
OptiBiotix (OPTI) has announced that it is “pleased to have signed an agreement with UITC to distribute our award-winning medical device in Singapore”…
I am told that you can get borrow in Verditek (VDTK) and that the stock is now shortable. For the avoidance of doubt I am not short, I never am since it would allow folks who own shares in frauds, engage in frauds or promote or enable them to accuse me as having a vested interest and thus compromise my status as an investigative journalist. But if you are into shorting here’s why this company is now at the slow death or quick death point…
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) is “pleased to announce… an exclusive distribution agreement with Ayalla Marketing for the distribution of its cholesterol reducing probiotic, LPLDL®, as an ingredient and as four finished products (CholBiome, CholBiomeX3, CholBiomeBP and CholBiomeVH) within the CholBiome® portfolio for Brazil”…
Jubilee Metals (JLP) “is pleased… the company has received notification from the Minister of Mines and Mineral Development in Zambia of the approval of the company’s application for the renewal of Small Scale Mining Licence 7081-HQ-SML in Kabwe… and… appointment of Nicholas (Nick) Taylor as non-executive director”…
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) “is pleased to provide the market with an update on trading for the six months ended 31 July 2020”, including of specific developments within its portfolio of financial services businesses investments…
Wood Group (WG.) announced half-year results including “operating profit of $65.6m (June 2019: $138.8m)…considers it prudent not to pay a 2020 interim dividend” but the shares look to be at a depressed valuation and the announcement also included “recent signs of stabilisation… expect good cash generation and a further reduction in net debt in the second half. Well placed for medium term growth as markets recover and the energy transition gathers pace”…
Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced an ore supply and processing agreement which “not only significantly extends the life of the existing PGM resource but also offers the potential for Jubilee to significantly expand its Inyoni Operations”…
An early morning tweet comes to me from an investor in Directa Plus (DCTA) suggesting that, although the share is speculative it is “under the radar screens of AIM tipsters” and insanely cheap. At 83p the Italian-run company is valued at £51 million so I suspect it has already received a good bit more than zero coverage.
Previously updating on Berkeley Energia (BKY) last month with the shares at 29p we noted there remain clear bureaucratic hurdles to overcome but at least progress was being made and economics in support of the project increasing given the current macro situation. Now “Urbanism Licence Granted for Retortillo”…
A “Further Copper Tailings Resource Secured in Zambia” announcement from Jubilee Metals (JLP), with it emphasising this looking “to deliver copper units well in advance of Jubilee’s previously announced copper transaction in Zambia and is significant step towards achieving Jubilee’s stated goal of 25 000 tonnes per annum of copper production”…
Returning after a previous profitable recommendation of shares in Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ), in July with the shares at 140p we noted current mines potential but also a geological exploration programme continuing with success. Now an “H1 2020 Geological Exploration Activities” update…
BP (BP.) has announced second quarter and half-year results including “underlying replacement cost loss for the quarter was $6.7 billion, compared with a profit of $2.8 billion for the same period a year earlier… A dividend of 5.25 cents per share was announced for the quarter, compared to 10.5 cents per share for the previous quarter” ($2.1 billion)… and the shares have responded higher to nearer 300p…
Jubilee Metals (JLP), an AIM and Altx traded metals processing company, has recently followed a “pleased to announce” six month operations update with a compelling presentation at MineProphets and at a current 4.6p offer price…
I am not a great train traveller so cannot boast vast first hand experience of using the online booking service Trainline (TRN). However that does not stop me noting that at 415p the just under £2 billion market cap is quite utterly absurd…
Berkeley Energia (BKY) “notes that the Board of the Nuclear Safety Council has issued a favourable report for the extension of the validity of the Initial Authorisation for the uranium concentrate plant as a radioactive facility at the Salamanca project following a board meeting held on the 22 July 2020”…
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced a non-binding heads of terms agreement for its “first enterprise outside of Azerbaijan”...
A “Q2 & H1 2020 Production and Operations Review” from Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) including “on track to achieve forecast production for FY 2020 of 75,000 to 80,000 GEOs” (Gold Equivalent Ounces)...
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has recently been “pleased to announce the extension of terms for CTC. This agreement recognises CTC's success in building sales of SlimBiome® and extends terms to enhance further sales growth, supported by minimum sales targets. This is a first commercial step in bringing our new functional ingredient WellBiome® to global markets and building brand awareness” and “pleased to announce… a second commercial step in bringing OptiBiotix's new functional ingredient WellBiome® to global markets and building brand awareness”...
Shares in BP (BP.) closed the prior week heading down towards 300p but are currently back above 310p, particularly following an “agrees to sell petrochemicals business to INEOS” announcement...
Live performance and entertainment marketing group Reach4Entertainment (R4E) has announced results for the 2019 calendar year, including “confidence in the group's ability to withstand the current situation and… anticipates that when live venues finally reopen - at whatever capacity - the requirement to market shows should ensure that r4e quickly returns to previous levels of trading”...
Highland Gold Mining (HGM) has updated on its COVID-19 response, with its programme of measures enabling its mining, processing, sales, supply chain and capital construction projects to ‘continue as planned’...
It is self-evident that stop losses are important, particularly when it comes to short selling where potential losses are infinite but I have always set the limit high with obviously bust companies and been relatively relaxed when they have moved against me, as it is usually an opportunity to sell more...
A “revises price assumptions; expects charges at 2Q” announcement from BP (BP.), including February-commenced CEO Bernard Looney stating “in February we set out to become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner… we have been reviewing our price assumptions over a longer horizon. That work has been informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which increasingly looks as if it will have an enduring economic impact”. Loony or very clever?...
We live in mad times. In the wider world I see that cartoon Police Dog Chase, from Paw Patrol, is about to go the way of Thomas Guy and Gladstone and become a non-person. On the stockmarket we see shares in companies that had said they are in a real mess, entering Chapter 11 in the USA, or talking to an administrator in the UK, roof it. This is all sheer madness and cannot last. I offer you two UK examples...
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for it year ended 31st January 2020, including “we are pleased to be able to deliver a dividend at this time”, noting “at this juncture Covid-19 appears unlikely to negatively influence the portfolio as a whole in a material fashion”...
Previously updating on Kazakhstan-focused gold company Altyn (ALTN) last month with the shares rising above 1p, we noted emphasises “significant production increase”, still a buy. Now from the company a “Production and financing update” – and the shares currently up to 1.60p on the back of it...
More news from OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) and we’re also asked to clarify re. previous statements by the company...
Volvere (VLE), the growth and turnaround investment company, has announced results for the 2019 calendar year, that its trading, food manufacturing, businesses “are still achieving an encouraging level of output” and that it is “already seeing increased levels of distressed deal flow”...
Currently compounds to tackle obesity, high cholesterol and diabetes developer, OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced results for the 13 months to 31st December 2019 (having moved its year-end from November), emphasising it “has met a significant number of important objectives that continue to build value for shareholders”. The shares have currently responded a bit lower to 62p, but the numbers are historic and look at the trading trajectory now...
Updating on OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) earlier this week we noted interest from larger partners and shorter partner discussions as sales are significantly developing. Now “a non-exclusive license agreement for its SlimBiome® trademark with Evolution_18 and related launch of fibre gummies containing OptiBiotix's SlimBiome® proprietary weight management technology”…
We recommended shares in tobacco and ‘next generation’ products smoking company Imperial Brands (IMB) amidst the market instability in early April – noting trading performance resilience although we regarded a dividend cut as almost inevitable. The company has now announced results for its half-year ended 31st March 2020 – and there’s subsequently been a new addition to the shareholder list...
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has updated including noting first quarter of 2020 sales of £407,844 – and the shares have responded 11% higher to above 60p. Capitalising the company at around £53 million, why you may ask? Well, look at the company’s trajectory...
Kazakhstan-focused gold company Altyn (ALTN) has updated on Q1 production, emphasising “production up a significant 130% year-over-year” and also that there is presently “minimal” COVID 19 pandemic impact on the operations, with it “closely monitoring the situation while cooperating with relevant authorities”...
Since warning you not to be short as the market almost bottomed it has been painful for those who ignored my advice. But I sense that a few opportunities may be opening up again. There is something Orwellian in the way that our Government makes statements about the Corona economic mess it has created with its non-sensical policies, the MSM parrots them and then as a nation we are expected, when not applauding the NHS or snitching on our neighbours for having two walks a day, to repeat and accept. And so we are told that the housing market is “opening up again.” And that swift action in getting housebuilders back to work & allowing estate agents to go to back to lying to buyers and sellers alike, will protect the nation’s favourite obsession, house prices...
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced it’s “pleased to have signed an agreement… to commercialise our award-winning weight management technology in Taiwan”…
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced “a non-exclusive license agreement for its SlimBiome® trademark with Smart For Life, Inc. and related launch of cookies containing OptiBiotix's SlimBiome® proprietary weight management technology in the USA and Canada”...
The tug of war going on in the markets now between reality and full on Modern Monetary Theory makes the stock market all but uninvestable until it is clear which side prevails. At the moment the latter seems to have the upper hand, but it is early days and I suspect that reality is not done yet. On the short side, many zombie companies which have been propped up since the GFC with artificially low interest rates are now sensing a new lease of life as they rush to the seemingly limitless Covid trough, as moral hazard abounds. There are always exceptions however...
Shares in gold producer from Russia, Highland Gold Mining (HGM) are 5% higher at near 230p on the back of a quarterly operating update...
A “Trading Statement” from bus services provider Rotala (ROL) including that the directors believe that it “will be well placed to take advantage, when restrictions are lifted, of the increased opportunities in the bus market that were evident before the onset of the coronavirus epidemic”...
Covid-19 has changed the world. Well perhaps not the virus itself but the governmental response, which I continue to see as the biggest exercise in GroupThink madness the world has seen. But the change has come and a clear victim is Hammerson (HMSO), a heavily indebted owner of retail properties. Its last stated NAV was 601p, the shares trade at 84p. Either this is the cheapest stock going or something is so wrong that it could be horribly expensive...
What are shares in Sound Energy (SOU) trading at today? 1p, 2p? I reckon this drowning in debt POS is worthless but only time will tell. It was not that long ago that shares in Sound traded at 90p. Not one institution bought as the stock headed to a £700 million market cap driven by obscene share ramping by the then CEO James Parsons, aided by some of the less scrupulous characters on the AIM scene...
As I write the Dow is down 25% year-to-date and 28% from its all-time high struck seven weeks ago on Feb 12th. Amongst the maelstrom of opinion and statistics that surfaced in March, the fact is that none of us have a clue what the future holds – least of all the financial ‘experts’ (Ray Dalio: “cash is trash”, Steve Mnuchin: “this is not a financial crisis but we need to print 3 trillion now”). It is encouraging that the new heroes are health workers and not hedge fund managers and clueless treasury officials. My view is that the falls do not remotely reflect the severity of the economic situation, but that is beside the point…
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has followed an “Exclusive licence agreement for OptiBiome®” with a contract manufacturing agreement for SlimBiome® with Fipros A/S, emphasising “the agreement is key”…
Okay, I have been wrong with such calls before. Quindell (QPP) was a total and demonstrable fraud, running on fumes and so just had to be a zero... Then along came those Aussie poltroons from Slater & Gordon, who bought most of its worthless assets, so saving Quindell but train-wrecking their own company. It happens now and again that the corporate world throws up an even bigger fool than your average Bulletin Board Moron on the LSE Asylum. Moreover, these are “challenging” times...
A “Change of accounting year end” announcement from OptiBiotix Health (OPTI). But isn’t that a move of fraudsters or incompetents? Not in this case…
Gold is still up from around $1,300 a year ago and current uncertainty and economic responses look to create a potential perfect storm for precious metals ahead. We believe this is a geared, but lower-risk way than most, to play it… The sell off of gold in the past week is a dash for cash to cover trading losses elsewhere. But that will not last and you MUST have gold exposure.
We recently recommended shares in IndigoVision (IND) at a 210p offer price and up to 225p, noting the company had been loss-making in recent years but a January trading update which offered encouragement having been followed by a full-year results announcement suggesting further potential. Now an announcement; “Recommended cash acquisition of IndigoVision”…
Kazakhstan-focused gold company Altyn (ALTN) “is pleased to announce that significant progress has been achieved in the acquisition of mining equipment following the recent debt raising by the company”…
I have communicated with Steve O Hara. The share price of Optibiotix (OPTI) is 34p and that is freaking some folks out. The share price does not reflect what is going on. I think a formal trading statement would be useful.
The oil price tanking - for reasons I explained at the weekend HERE - and shares tumbling across the board on concerns as to what damage the Coronavirus is doing, and will do, to the real economy and thus to corporate earnings. Generally, my view is that doing nothing as an investor is something that is greatly under-rated. It is perhaps better to wait until the smoke clears. Having said that, sometimes we need to accept that facts have changed and that does fundamentally alter an investment thesis...
It may seem tasteless to consider such matters but the reality is that Covid 19 is spreading and whilst the numbers infected are still a drop in the ocean the fear is palpable and the effects on the real economy are already clear. The Fed may have slashed base rates by ½% earlier this week but, like the markets which promptly puked, I do not see this curing anything. Folks are not going to start spending again just because money is a bit cheaper, further cheap money will not solve a snagged up supply chain...
September-announced half year results from self-styled “growth and turnaround investment company”, Volvere (VLE) included “net assets per share have reached a new record of £13.56 (30 June 2018: £6.75, 31 December 2018: £12.50)”. Despite this and clear further growth potential though, the shares are still available at a meaningful discount to that NAV and so…
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has updated on a number of developments CEO Steve O'Hara emphasises “support the commercialisation of its ingredients and products”…
Updating on Fox Marble (FOX) earlier this month, we noted we retain the patience for at least continuing to hold with the shares at 2.30p with the potential arbitration and it mitigating a forced quarry operations suspension with increased focus on the sales of processed material from the factory and “further contracts for third party processing are expected to be signed in the near future”. Further updates have now helped the shares to a current 2.90p…
“The latest published Net Asset Value was £130m, or 360.9p per share, as at 31 July 2019, which represented a 3% increase, or a 4.3% increase including the dividend paid in July 2019, for the six months ended on that date. From its inception in 1990 until 31 July 2019 the group has maintained an average annual compound increase in NAV of 11.7%. The group is expected to report a positive performance for the financial year ended 31 January 2020.” What price for this track-record, current performance and ‘focussed on taking actions to reduce discount to net asset value’?... Presently, a 268p offer price and thus…
Last week we noted a licencing agreement for LPLDL, of OptiBiotix Health (OPTI), was clearly positive with the potential then significantly added to but that Uruguay itself is clearly not the largest of markets. The latter is not the case for the United States and Canada!…
Volex (VLX) has released a “Statement Regarding Current Situation in China” – it having four manufacturing plants in China…
Bus group Rotala (ROL) has updated including it “is pleased to announce that trading during FY 19 was in-line with market expectations”, that it “is well placed to capitalise on its enhanced position in a period when the bus industry continues to undergo considerable change” and that it “expects to maintain its progressive dividend policy”…
Investors love to look for signs of markets tops, a difficult task, except in hindsight. A favourite of the GFC of 2008 was the infamous comment by Citigroup’s Chuck Prince in July 2007; “As long as the music is playing you have to get up and dance." Now we have another Prince, this time Bob, co CIO of Bridgewater, who proclaimed at Davos the other day that we have seen the end of the boom bust cycle (remember the great Gordon Brown saying much the same in 2007?)...
Solid State (SOLI) was a 500p offer price, October last year, share tip. It has since updated positively and, following a share price rise to well above 600p, there’s this month been director shareholding announcements…
