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Keyword results: Lucian Miers

MTW
MTW
PREMIUM CONTENT

Mattioli Woods – full-year results, remains a recovery Buy

Wealth and asset management company Mattioli Woods (MTW) has announced its results for its year ended 31st May 2023 and says that it “remains well positioned for the year ahead with a strong platform and integrated model”.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – solid AGM trading statement, still a value and income Buy

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has issued an AGM trading statement emphasising that trading is in line with expectations and that it is positioned well for the remainder of its year and beyond. Sounds reassuringly solid then.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – further commercial progress, Strong Buy, target 78p

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has issued a “Commercial update” announcement, noting commercial progress of its first-generation products range and reiterating plans for each business unit to reach operational profitability by the end of this year. What of this with the shares currently responding up towards 30p?
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Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending 26 August

Another week gone and here are the most read and most listened-to articles and Bearcasts on ShareProphets over the past seven days. The most read non-Quiz, non-Tom article last week is by Lucien Miers, Crunch Time for the Tingo Three, at No 2 or No 7 including Bearcasts.

RWS
RWS

RWS Holdings – recovery value?...

Half year results from company describing itself as a “world-leading provider of technology-enabled language, content and intellectual property services” RWS Holdings (RWS) included some weaker demand in the current macroeconomic climate and planned investments. However, there looks good reason for some confidence looking ahead and, including with the shares down from above 400p as recently as early this year, we now consider there to be clear value.
Crime-Scene
PREMIUM CONTENT

Crunch Time for the Tingo Three

Having missed its Q2 earnings release date on 10th August, brazen fraud Tingo Group (NASDAQ:TIO) has undertaken to file on 21st along with producing an independent report commissioned by its non-executive directors into the serious allegations made against it in June by Hindenburg Research.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – interims, an expected second half further progress Buy

Industrial components manufacturer and distributor Essentra (ESNT) has announced results for the first half of the 2023 calendar year “in line with expectations” and that it expects to make further progress in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, we look for progress from a current around 150p share price.
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CGS
CGS

Castings – AGM trading statement, still further upside on this winning share tip?

Foundry and Machining company Castings (CGS) has issued an AGM trading statement including that “schedules are starting to reflect the underlying demand in the market” and “input prices appear to have stabilised in the current year”. Good news?
FUM
FUM
PREMIUM CONTENT

Some real research on Futura Medical – a stonking short

No we have not tried its product Eroxon nor indeed felt the need to do so although Lucian Miers is a grandpa these days. Eroxon is a supposed treatment for Erectile Dysfunction and recently Futura Medical (FUM) followers have got terribly excited about gaining regulatory approval in Saudi Arabia.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Is Ocado a screaming short?

Ocado (OCDO) has been the most shorted stock in the FTSE 100 over the past few years and the bears have been roasted. Is there still a bear case?
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Crime-Scene
PREMIUM CONTENT

BREAKING: Tingo postpones results, Chris Cleverley's biggest fraud yet enters its final weeks

Last week the fraud run by Chris Cleverly of African Potash infamy, that is to say Tingo (TIO) said that it would publish its Q2 numbers and host a conference call today, 10th August. Bears like Hindenburg Research were ready to pounce with 38 questions Tingo could not answer. So what to do? Late last night Tingo said it was postponing its results to 21 August.
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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: By Jove, Lucian Miers is bang on the money

In today's podcast I discuss Alien Metals (UFO), Hydrogen Utopia (HUI), Optibiotix (OPTI) and an email exchange with Steve O'Hara, inflation, Iconic (ICON), Futura Medical (FUM), Haleon (HLN) and Lucian's research into curing erectile dysfunction among men of his age. 
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TTG
TTG
PREMIUM CONTENT

TT Electronics – interims, a continuing strong trading momentum Buy

‘Provider of engineered electronics for performance critical applications’ TT Electronics (TTG) has announced results for the first half of the 2023 calendar year, emphasising “strong organic growth in revenue and profit” and “continued strong momentum”. What of a share price currently responding up above 155p?
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Vesuvius – interims, still earnings and income value on this winning share tip

Molten metal flow engineering and technology company Vesuvius (VSVS) has announced its results for the first half of 2023 and says that it feels confident to modestly increase full year expectations. Good news.
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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – Q4 report, value and income Buy

Platinum group metals producer from South Africa Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has issued its fourth quarterly report for its year ended 30th June 2023, noting its production exceeded forecasts and “strong cash reserves to allow funding of expansion and process optimisation capital and upgrading of the group's exploration and evaluation assets with the potential to return value to shareholders”. So what of the shares currently around 70p in response?
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Optibiotix – sells SkinBioTherapeutics shares, price target cut from 82p to 78p but still a STRONG BUY as de-risked a bit more

“TR-1” (shareholding) announcement on the holding of Optibiotix Health (OPTI) in SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX). So what’s this news?
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Tom

Tom Winnifrith video ShareShow Number 27 featuring Steve O'Hara of Optibiotix and Lucian Miers

I am back with these bonus video shows. I am still re-adjusting myself to zoom so if my face looks a bit funny there is a reason. In this show I interview Steve O'Hara of Optibiotix (OPTI) and short seller Lucian Miers on 4 short ideas. I also comment on Versarien and the inevitability of Neill Ricketts dumping his shares. I hope you enjoy the show.
CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – interims, still a production-improving Buy

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has announced results for the first half of the 2023 calendar year emphasising “Improved results driven by strong operating performance and stringent cost management” and “in a robust position to deliver the next stage of growth including further optimisation at Sukari and continued development of the Doropo project”. Sounds good, and the shares have currently responded higher.
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XPS
XPS
PREMIUM CONTENT

XPS Pensions – disposal and “strategic partnership” agreement further boosts shares, but still further upside

Pension consulting and administration group XPS Pensions (XPS) has announced an agreement to sell principal employer and scheme funder of the National Pensions Trust, XPS Pensions (Nexus) Limited, to SEI and for a strategic partnership between the organisations. What’s the detail and what of a current share price response up further to around 190p?
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TTG
TTG
PREMIUM CONTENT

TT Electronics – a recovery BUY

Shares in ‘engineered electronics for performance critical applications’ company TT Electronics (TTG) were above 200p as recently as April, but are now available at a 153p offer price. Following an AGM trading update in May and with half year results scheduled for 3rd August, we now consider the shares a recovery Buy.
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VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Versarien – another placing at just 1p, death merely postponed!

Just 1p! Yes you read that right. Gone are the days when Neill Ricketts was dumping shares at almost £2 and mug punters used to discuss whether fair value was £10 or £100 and how to get myself and Lucien Miers killed. That is in the past. Today Versarien (VRS) has raised just £650,000 gross to keep the lights on for another three months. But it is still screwed.
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MTW
MTW

Mattioli Woods – full-year trading update, we are ahead on this tip but still a recovery Buy

UK wealth and asset management company Mattioli Woods (MTW) has issued a trading update including that inflationary pressures continue to impact wages and other costs but also “profit for the year in line with expectation… expect the current macroeconomic conditions and recent legislative changes to drive continued demand for advice”. So what does this suggest from a current 620p share price?
PREMIUM CONTENT

J Sainsbury – Q1 trading statement, a current trading momentum Buy

J Sainsbury (SBRY) has issued a trading statement for the 16 weeks ended 24th June 2023, emphasising “continued strong Grocery momentum” and “General Merchandise growth driven by further Argos market share gains, with strong Consumer Electronics sales offsetting weaker early Summer seasonals performance”. So what of this with a now 269.6p share price?
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Black-Swan

Tom Winnifrith: Are you coming to Sharestock this September 23?

I am writing as ShareStock is now 78 days away but already more than two thirds of the seats have been reserved for September 23. There have been a few more changes since last year…
PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – full-year results, still a value and income Buy

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its year ended 30th April 2023 and that it has confidence ahead. Is there still good upside from a current around 280p share price then?

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XPS
XPS
PREMIUM CONTENT

XPS Pensions – full-year results, an ahead of expectations Buy

Pensions advisory and administration group XPS Pensions (XPS) has announced results for its year ended 31st March 2023 and that it “has made a strong start to the new financial year with continued high levels of demand”. Sounds good, and so is there further upside from a 173.5p share price?
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SFR
SFR
PREMIUM CONTENT

Severfield – positive full-year results, still a growth and value Buy

Structural steel company Severfield (SFR) has announced its results for a year ended 25th March 2023 that it describes as “very successful” and that, given its performance to-date and the strength of its order books, it is confident of delivering further progress.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

A graphic display of why Cakebox will struggle over the next year

I realise that the cakes made by CakeBox (CBOX) are not strictly comparable with those you can buy at Tesco, Aldi, or for metropolitan elitists like my pal Jonathan Price, Waitrose. Cakebox cakes contain no eggs so are great for Hindus (1.7%of the population) and vegans ( 4.5%). And there are some with a sweet tooth and, almost certainly type 2 diabetes, like Lucian Miers who really dig the taste. But...
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CGS
CGS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Castings – positive full-year results, still further upside?

Foundry and Machining company Castings (CGS) has announced results for its year ended 31st March 2023 and that “customers continue to increase schedules”. So more good news from a now above 400p share price?
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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh & Partners – full-year results, shares further up but still value? You bet!

Investor in early stage financial services businesses B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2023 and emphasised a three year strategy to return £13 million to shareholders and that it is looking forward to reporting further progress for the current financial year.
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Woodlarks

UPDATED: 13 hours to go another thank you from Woodlarks & the Rogue Bloggers – 1 last ask & some bad news as we hit £26,000

June 17th and the 34 mile walk from Winchester Cathedral to the amazing Woodlarks camp in Surrey is now just ONE day away. It looks like the 12 ( no 11) of us walking will be sweating under a hot sun on what will be our last trek for Woodlarks. We are all very grateful that so many of you have donated allowing us to reach, with gift aid, £26,000 raised. Thank you to all who have given Woodlarks much needed funds. But…
Woodlarks

Tom Winnifrith: This is my last walk for Woodlarks and the last time I shall ask all Shareprophets readers to donate a tenner – PLEASE ADD TODAY to the £16,000 now raised

We have three new volunteers for June 17th and the 34 mile walk from Winchester Cathedral to the amazing Woodlarks camp in Surrey so 12 of us will be there on the day and we have now raised more than £16,000. I shall set off at 4.15 AM and aim to arrive by 8 PM having spent 16 hours at the back with my great friend Jonathan being lectured by him, for the whole walk, on why I was so wrong, stupid and Xenophobic to vote for Brexit. Think of my suffering but read on to find out what a great cause this is and please consider why each of you yet to donate should give a tenner today HERE.

Crime-Scene
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tingo is such an obvious Norfolk, it is just a zero, its free money as a bear, its when, not if, Deloitte pulls the plug

Why bother shorting companies which are just stock market promotes or have severe balance sheet issues. They might struggle on for a while. Instead you can short Nasdaq listed Tingo (US:TIO) which is now a demonstrable fraud its still, on a fully diluted basis, worth almost a billion bucks – at $1.34 – and which is a nailed down zero.
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VP
VP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vp plc – full-year results, a trading resilience value Buy

Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has announced results for its year ended 31st March 2023 and that, whilst some macro-economic volatility remains, it is confident that it will continue to deliver on its objectives of driving demand for products and services and increasing revenues and profitability.
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JLP
JLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jubilee Metals – chrome/PGM new partnership agreement, Strong Buy

Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced a new partnership agreement for its PGM and chrome operations, emphasising it is progress towards expanding its South African operational footprint by 65% over the next 24 months to reach nearly 2 million tonnes of chrome concentrate annually as it continuously strives to enhance earnings.
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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh & Partners – proposed sale proceeds update, Buy

Investor in early stage financial services businesses, B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced that, “subject to completion and receipt of the Kentro proceeds”, it is pleased to confirm a special dividend, new dividend policy and a further share buyback as well as providing an update on its ongoing strategy.
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Crime-Scene
PREMIUM CONTENT

The billion dollar fraud Tingo – the weakest rebuttal in history & an explicit warning for US investors from Tingo itself

Yesterday, bear raiders Hindenburg weighed into the battle with Tingo (US:TIO), the billion dollar fraud masterminded by Chris Cleverly, the cousin of foreign secretary James. The dossier HERE showed that Tingo’s claimed operations either did not exist or had a skeletal presence which shows that its claimed revenues and profits are just bogus as, almost certainly, is its claimed cash. Tingo has responded with what Lucian Miers calls “one of the most feeblest rebuttals I have seen ( and I have seen a lot)”. Meanwhile Tingo itself has a warning for American investors.

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Woodlarks

Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks – 90%+ of you yet to donate: c’mon how about just a tenner as 11 prepare to walk

We have two new volunteers for June 17th and the 34 mile walk from Winchester Cathedral to Woodlarks. The far more photogenic of the two is pictured below.
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vesuvius plc – a markets recovering Buy?

Describing itself as “a global leader in molten metal flow engineering and technology”, a recent trading statement from Vesuvius plc (VSVS) included that its end-markets recovery pace “remains slow and uncertain”, but that they have started to recover from a low level of the end of last year and that its current trading is ‘ahead of initial expectations’. With this adding to confidence of its performance as its end markets recover and a good dividend yield whilst we wait, at a 417.8p offer price and up to 420p, we consider the shares a Buy.
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XPS
XPS
PREMIUM CONTENT

XPS Pensions – positive full-year trading update, Buy

Recommended in May at a 167p offer price, UK pensions consulting and administration group XPS (XPS) has since stated that it “is pleased to provide its post-close trading update (unaudited) for the year ending 31 March 2023 ahead of its full year results expected to be released on 22 June”. With the shares currently slightly up, how ‘pleasing’ was the announcement?
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BREAKING: Now Gabriel Grego goes short Tingo - he knows about companies claiming "net cash"

Gabriel Grego has just tweeted that he has shorted Tingo (US:TIO) joining other bears such as Fraser Perring, Lucian Miers and a stack of US bears who all see this as a zero. Natch mug punters have responded with abuse as they always know better, especially as Tingo is drowning in cash and auditors never get that wrong do they? Er..
  • 111 days ago
Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Detailed Dossier: Tingo Part 2 Mmobuosi and Mercer. A Marriage Made in Heaven

I realise the shares are up sharply today thanks to an announcement which is a real spoof. I shall expose that later this week on the N50 site. As I wrote in Part 1 two weeks ago, its difficult to know where to start with Tingo Group (NASDAQ: TIO) -formerly MICT, which has acquired the Nigerian Agri-Fintech firm Tingo Inc (pinksheet USOTC: TMNA ) via an RTO- so let’s be charitable and start with the bull case. This dossier is long and detailed, beware!

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BPM
BPM

B.P. Marsh & Partners – Kentro sale agreement looks to further highlight value, Keep Buying

Early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) “is pleased to announce the disposal of its entire 18.7% shareholding in Kentro, subject to FCA approval being granted”. With the shares currently up to 334p to buy in response, how ‘pleasing’ is the prospective disposal?
EZJ
EZJ
PREMIUM CONTENT

easyJet – interims, an “enter the summer with confidence” Buy?

EasyJet (EZJ) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st March 2023 and emphasised that it enters the summer “with confidence”.
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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

TINGO Part 1: The Rogues Gallery

I have never thought that the theory “there is no such thing as bad publicity” holds much water. The company I shall expose in a two part series supports my belief. It is currently valued at more than $500 million, or, arguably, far more on a fully diluted basis, and is shortable. This is a zero and one should be short.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – AGM trading update, an improving trends Buy

Industrial components company Essentra (ESNT) has issued an AGM trading update including noting distributor destocking but that it “is seeing improved trends since the start of the second quarter”.
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BEN
BEN
PREMIUM CONTENT

Up the Bens Creek without a paddle

The FCA always tells us, when not lecturing us on climate change or the need of the financial services industry to employ more lesbians of colour, that past performance is no guide to the future. But the thing is that it very often is an excellent guide to the future. And that is one of the reasons why I have always regarded Bens Creek (BEN) as an accident waiting to happen.
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MTW
MTW
PREMIUM CONTENT

Mattioli Woods – a value and income BUY

UK wealth and asset management company Mattioli Woods (MTW) recently announced an initial £8.78 million and up to £15.048 million acquisition of one of the largest financial planning and wealth management businesses in Northern Ireland, Doherty Pension & Investment Consultancy. This is expected to be earnings enhancing in the first full year of ownership and looks to add to an attractive value and income position here.
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IMB
IMB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Imperial Brands – interims, still income value

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st March 2023 and that it is “on course to meet… full-year guidance, with improving returns in line with five-year strategy”.
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Tom

129 days to go, but already almost TWO THIRDS of seats gone for Sharestock on September 23, BOOK NOW!

It is still 129 days to ShareStock 2023 but already ALMOST TWO THIRDS of the seats for September 23rd are booked out. If you attended the first ever Sharestock event up at the Welsh farm where my family live you may know why this will be sold out well before the event. If not, let me explain why this years show will be even bigger and better than that in 2022 and so why you should book your seat early.

PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – SkinBiotix additional formal studies, a short-term delay but enhanced outlook: STRONG BUY

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced on its AxisBiotix-Ps (psoriasis) product that it has commenced sales in Spain aided by the launch of a regional website and on its skin care active ingredient SkinBiotix that partner, cosmetics business of FTSE-100 Croda (CRDA), Sederma has noted ‘exciting’ additional benefits which means delays in monetisation. Is that good news or bad?
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CEL
CEL
PREMIUM CONTENT

Celadon Pharma is on a nutso valuation, it is dangerous but surely it is a short

Back on March 23 I did a bearcast on Celadon Pharma (CEL) HERE which initially saw the shares marked lower from 125p to c105p. But the company fought back with private briefings. It did not draw attention to my well founded misgivings by issuing an RNS “refuting” what I said. That was a smart move. Instead someone roped in the serial liar John Story to do a mass new media spam pushing the shares, the CEO also did a Proactive interview and, for a while it worked. The shares hit 180p. Ouch. But then they started slipping.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Carr’s Group – interims, still a ‘strong prospects’ BUY!

Agriculture and engineering group Carr’s (CARR) has announced its results for its half-year ended 4th March 2023 and that it “anticipates full year adjusted profit before tax of c.£10m and remains confident in the prospects of both divisions in the medium term”.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Macfarlane – solid trading update, still a value Buy

Packaging designer, manufacturer and distributor Macfarlane Group (MACF) has issued a trading update headlined “Solid start to 2023 - on course to meet full year expectations”, so what does that mean relative to a now 114.5p share price, £181.3 million market cap?
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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – Q3 report and share buyback, value and income Buy

Platinum group metals producer from South Africa, Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has followed third quarter of its year results with that it intends an up to $10 million share buyback programme.
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CGS
CGS

Castings – anticipates full-year “ahead of market expectations”, Buy

Iron castings and machining operations company Castings (CGS) has announced it now anticipates year ended 31st March 2023 performance to be ahead of market expectations and that forward demand schedules continue to reflect strong order books across its customer base.

J Sainsbury – full-year results, trading great momentum?

J Sainsbury (SBRY) has announced results for its year ended 4th March 2023 and said that it’s starting the new financial year with great momentum.
PREMIUM CONTENT

Macfarlane – another acquisition, still a value Buy

Packaging designer, manufacturer and distributor Macfarlane Group (MACF) has announced the acquisition of A & G Holdings, owner of Gottlieb Packaging Materials – a North-West of England-based supplier of protective packaging products to customers across a wide range of sectors.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – full-year trading update, a growth and income Buy?

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has issued a trading statement noting “strong growth in profitability and financial performance”, in line with expectations, and that it is well positioned entering its new year.
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Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending 29 April

The Pub Quiz was number one last week, and that's very satisfying even if it only happened becuase I had to reload as I screwed up on 2 of the 10 questions. But the most read non-Quiz, non-Tom article last week was  Short gold, I am by Lucian Miers at No 2 or No 8 including Bearcasts.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Fresnillo – Q1 production report, still a growth and recovery from 2022 challenges Buy

Metals producer from Mexico, Fresnillo (FRES) has issued a first quarter of the year production report including that it is “well on track to meet our full year production guidance”.
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JLP
JLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jubilee Metals – Q3 update, still a risk reward Buy

Jubilee Metals (JLP) has issued a third quarter of its year update, including stating that it “remains on track” and emphasising various routes to growth potential.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Canadian Overseas Petroleum – yet more death spiral vicar?

It is only seven days since the last time that $400,000 of death spiral bonds were converted into shares after a good bout of forward selling. But Arthur Millholland of Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) is king of the shareholder dilute so here we go again. At this rate we might get a similar announcement once a week for 83 weeks before we are done. What do you reckon the share price will be by then?
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ASC
ASC

Matt Earl’s new short – big news at the Sunday Times this weekend: Meet him in person on September 23

The Dark Destroyer has built up a sizeable short in ASOS (ASC) the Sunday Times blasted yesterday Perhaps he’s been reading ShareProphets as we’ve been bearish for a long while. I discussed this in bearcast  yesterday. But would you like to meet Matt in person as he is a lead speaker at ShareStock on September 23. But there is more.

CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – first quarter 2023 report, a good start and further potential: BUY

Gold producer in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has announced “a good start” to 2023 and that it “look forwards to reporting later in the year on several additional projects which will deliver growth and underpin returns”. Good news from a current 105.3p share price?
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Gold
PREMIUM CONTENT

Short gold, I am

In these somewhat turbulent times in the market there is a great deal of noise and disagreement about where we are. Is inflation an ongoing problem or is a deflationary recession on the way? Should we buy or sell bonds? What about equities? Is the US dollar toast or a good place to hide?
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IMB
IMB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Imperial Brands – half-year trading update, still value and income attractive?

Imperial Brands (IMB) has issued a trading update emphasising that it is on track to meet full-year guidance including growing revenue and operating profit after first half robust tobacco pricing and stable aggregate market share across its top combustible markets against a strong comparator and a step-up in 'next generation products' launches.
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WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – shares up as now talking to Apollo re. takeover: what to do?

Previously writing on 155p offer price July last year tip Wood Group (WG.), earlier this month with the shares at 200p we noted that, although the share price suggested that the market did not believe takeover proposals would succeed, it looked to us like the major shareholders were open to a deal and that anyway there looked medium term upside so continue to hold. Now there’s been a further announcement on the possible takeover from the group – and the shares are up to above 226p.
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Tom

Off to mow the ShareStock lawn - more than half the seats for September 23 now booked, here’s why!

The grass on the elevated lawn above the river is looking green but too long. So today I start work on getting it under control for the shares event with a difference. It is still more than five months days to ShareStock 2023 but already more than half the seats for September 23rd are booked out. If you attended the first ever Sharestock event up at the Welsh farm where my family live you may know why this will be sold out well before the event. If not, let me explain why this years show will be even bigger and better than that in 2022 and so why you should book your seat early. As was the case last year the whole day will be irreverent, relaxed and fun! In fact with my new guest speakers it will be even more irreverent and controversial. That I can promise.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Amaroq Minerals – completes strategic minerals joint venture, Strong Buy

Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ) has announced that all resolutions have been met meaning its Strategic Minerals joint venture transaction with GCAM has now closed, with approval from the Greenland government. An “exciting milestone”?
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Carr's Group – full-year results emphasise strong prospects, a Buy?

Agriculture and engineering group Carr's (CARR) has announced delayed results for its year ended 3rd September 2022, emphasising it is “now focused on higher-margin, differentiated, international Speciality Agriculture and Engineering businesses with strong growth prospects” and its shares have been restored to trading.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

J Sainsbury – targeting comfortably above a 300p share price and some decent dividends

J Sainsbury (SBRY) recently concluded its financial year. However, there look to be good reasons to look forward to the 27th April-scheduled numbers and beyond with confidence with the resilient nature of its core business in a currently highly uncertain macro environment.
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WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – Apollo slightly increases possible offer, stating this its “Final Proposal”

Writing on Wood Group (WG.) last month we noted a Takeover Panel extension until 5pm on 19th April including the group stating “following engagement with shareholders” suggested to us that the major shareholders are open to a deal. Now a 'Final Proposal' announcement from private equity bidder Apollo and a response from Wood Group.
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WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – 2022 results, trading and possible offer potential?

Wood Group (WG.) has announced results for the 2022 calendar year and that the “transformed” group is already delivering – noting it has “started 2023 with good momentum… order book for delivery in 2023 is up 10%”.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – 2022 results, a trading resilience and growth Buy

Industrial components manufacturer and distributor Essentra (ESNT) has announced its results for the 2022 calendar year and that it considers it has now laid the foundations to capture exciting growth opportunities.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Amaroq Minerals – prospective debt financing and Iceland Nasdaq main market listing, upgrade to Strong Buy

Gold and strategic metals development and exploration company in Greenland, Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ) has announced that it has agreed heads of terms for $49.5 million of financing to enable trial mining, processing and production of gold doré at its flagship Nalunaq project and we’ve subsequently spoken to CEO Eldur Olafsson.
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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Banking Déjà vu

On March 15th 2008, almost exactly fifteen years ago, the Federal Reserve railroaded JP Morgan into the rescue of Bear Stearns, which had gone from being solvent to insolvent in a couple of days. The consensus was that this drew a line under a rocky period and that normality had been restored. Six months later we all know what happened.
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GDR
GDR
PREMIUM CONTENT

Genedrive – I smell a placing underway

You can just smell it. All the signs are there and the company has stated that it will be placing before its year-end which is now just over three months away. At 40.75p, the market cap is £36.7 million and if you can short Genedrive (GDR) you should. So here’s why.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – Q3 update, a continuing to trade well Buy

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has issued a Q3 trading statement including that “the positive trends in profitability experienced in H1 have continued” and “positions us well for the remainder of the year and into our next financial year”. So what of a recently falling share price?
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JLP
JLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jubilee Metals – some interims disappointment, but improvement from here?

Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st December 2022, noting impact from South Africa and Zambia power outages and water disruptions but arguing that it has now taken actions to address these.
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WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – Takeover Panel extension, including “following engagement with shareholders”

Wood Group (WG.) has announced that it has requested and been granted an extension from the Takeover Panel until 5pm on 19th April for Apollo to announce a firm intention to make an offer or not.
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CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – 2022 results, growth and dividend upside potential: BUY

Centamin (CEY) has announced its results for the 2022 calendar year and that it maintains a current year gold production guidance range of 450,000-480,000 ounces and remains on track to consistently return its Sukari mine in Egypt to production levels towards 500,000 ounces per annum from 2024.
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SFR
SFR
PREMIUM CONTENT

Severfield – agreement to acquire Voortman Steel, Buy

Structural steel company Severfield (SFR) has announced an agreement to acquire Voortman Steel Construction for a net €24 million, emphasising it will provide it with further market and geographical diversification and is anticipated to be earnings-enhancing in its first full year of ownership.
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Fresnillo – full-year results, a growth and recovery from 2022 challenges Buy

The world's largest primary silver producer and Mexico's largest gold producer, Fresnillo (FRES) has announced results for the 2022 calendar year and said that it is excited about its growth pipeline.
PREMIUM CONTENT

Macfarlane – “earnings enhancing” acquisition, remains a value Buy

Macfarlane Group (MACF) has announced the acquisition of A.E. Sutton, including that the move is being funded from the existing bank facility and will be earnings-enhancing.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Buy Supermarket Income REIT

Wanting some secure income with some future upside potential? How about inflation-linked, long income from grocery property? This and a share price currently down below 90p suggest to us that shares in Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) are a Buy.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Cineworld and the last rites, no need to close shorts yet

This column has been calling Cineworld (CINE) as a short for absolute ages. It hardly seems credible but three years ago the shares were 170p. Today they are 2.9p and so anybody who has gone short as we advised all along has done well. You know where to send the “thank you” bottles of ouzo.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Ouzo for Pete Brailey and the bears, another Pantheon disaster as its cash rapidly runs out!

The big bear call from Pete Brailey at ShareStock 2022 last September was Pantheon Resources (PANR) at 122p and its shares are now 31p after another disastrous operational update. To have presented such data if you were drowning in cash would be alright, but Pantheon is not, it is rapidly running out of other folks moolah.
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Beggar

One last time, Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks Annual 34 mile walk – we are on!

This will be the sixth walk and we have agreed the last. Maybe Lucian and I will do something different next year, maybe not. The old boy did turn 60 last year. The date is now set for June 17 and we will walk the 34 miles from Winchester to the Woodlarks camp. So far those signed up are:
RIO
RIO

Rio Tinto – 2022 results, how ‘resilient’?

Mining major Rio Tinto (RIO) has announced its calendar 2022 results emphasising “despite challenging market conditions, we remain resilient”, but what of a now 5983p share price?

Macfarlane – 2022 growth ahead of expectations and 2023 confidence, BUY

Protective packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced results for the 2022 calendar year which are ahead of both the prior year and market expectations and that it expects to deliver further growth in 2023.
WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – rejected possible offer proposals highlight the prospects we noted, what now?

Re-recommended at a 155p offer price in July after we previously banked a more than 40%, less than 7 months, offer-to-bid gain on the shares, Wood Group (WG.) has noted “recent speculation” and confirmed that it has received three possible cash offer proposals from Apollo Global Management, the most recent of which was at 230p per share and unanimously rejected by the board as it considers it “significantly undervalued the repositioned group's prospects”.
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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – interims, still a value and income Buy

Platinum group metals in South Africa company Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st December 2022 and that it has increased its full-year production guidance.
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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Could Cineworld be a zero by the end of next week?

I end by thanking the kind reader whose gift of a bottle of Metaxa has just arrived. The Mrs says thank you as well. Elsewhere I chat to Lucian Miers and discuss Cineworld (CINE) - after yesterday's legal hearing - and Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL). then it is onto Tern (TERN), Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV) and what Versarien (VRS) is so desperate to hide. The references in that section are to the great film Zulu.
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BP
BP
PREMIUM CONTENT

BP – Q4 & full-year 2022 results, how much upside remaining?

BP (BP.) has announced a fourth quarter $4.8 billion underlying Replacement Cost profit, a 10% increased quarterly dividend per share of $0.0661 and that it sees “tremendous opportunity to create value”.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Canadian Overseas – Liquidity has gone, the shares can only go one way

A two million share trade went through at just 5.5p earlier. Natch the Bulletin Board Morons saw this as great news, arguing that a big stock overhang had gone and that the shares would now rocket. To be fair they have bounced back but this just shows what happens when Liquidity is gone and we know that there are massive sellers coming at almost any price.
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BPM
BPM

B.P. Marsh and Partners – full-year trading update, continuing positive performance: BUY

Early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced that during its year to 31st January 2023 the majority of its investee companies continued to perform well and that it remains positive regarding its ongoing performance and the outlook for the insurance market.
PREMIUM CONTENT

The Wandisco share price is insane

I have a lot of time for Wandisco (WAND) boss David Richards and his tech business clearly has some traction. But the valuation is surely insane.
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CGS
CGS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Castings plc – a value and income Buy

Shares in Castings plc (CGS) have recently recovered to above 350p after positive trading and results statements towards the end of last year. However, they remain well down on levels achieved in prior years despite a positive outlook and look to be a value and income Buy at current levels.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Canadian Overseas Petroleum – deliberately confusing release as death spiral shares issued at just 7.3p

I cannot remember the last time that I saw such a duplicitous dishonest company, this has to be one of the easiest shorts out there at the moment!” says Evil Banksta of Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL). He is not alone, Lucian Miers has also called in from the grim North today, outraged as to how the FCA allows Canadian to publish the sort of misleading piffle it has today.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Death Spiral Finance. What Can Possibly Go Wrong?

Providers of loans to small cash- strapped publicly listed companies, (usually, but not always AIM) which are convertible into equity linked to the average prevailing share price (VWAP) tend to get a bad rap in the same way that the loan shark or the “usurer” gets a bad rap. The type of finance which they purvey is known as “death spiral” which says it all. They normally have websites which provide the bare minimum of detail and describe themselves as “investors” or “growth facilitators” or some sort of misleading handle.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – proposed special dividend and share buyback, Buy

Essentra (ESNT) has now announced how it intends to structure a previously noted £150 million return to shareholders following the disposals of its Filters and Packaging divisions to focus on being a leading global manufacturer and distributor of components.
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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Doubling down on Argo Blockchain and Canadian Overseas Petroleum

Both Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) and Argo Blockchain (ARB) have featured here as shorts. Let’s start with the undoubted success.
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SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – Q2 report, production guidance increased

Platinum group metals in South Africa company Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its quarter ended 31stDecember 2022 and that “FY2023 production guidance increased, targeting 70,000 to 72,000 4E PGM ounces” (up from 68,000-70,000 ounces). Good news from a current 106p share price we suggest.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Fresnillo – Q4 report, a recovery from production challenges: Buy

The world's largest primary silver producer Fresnillo (FRES) has issued a fourth quarter production report and 2023 guidance for 104-115 million ounces of silver equivalent production.
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Tom

9 Months away – Sharestock now more than 40% booked out! Grab your seat now

The big tent is now booked for ShareStock on September 23 this year. It will seat around 100 folks but already more than 40 of those seats have been reserved. And it is now wonder given who is speaking and all the other attractions. We might even have a jetty for you fisherman to try to grab a salmon or a pike on the day. That project is in hand. But the speakers are lining up.
Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Revealed:Lucian Miers’s UK shorts, big and small – 1 a zero by end February

Yesterday, as I am in the grim North, I met up for a quick pint with Lucian Miers at a boozer which had the most abominable customer service I have encountered in years. Hell’s teeth they made Darren Atwater’s approach to customer service and that of the entire French population, seem Nobel prize winning. I digress. After discussing historic abuse at public schools we moved on to Ukraine and then to Lucian’s portfolio of shorts.
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AVO
AVO
PREMIUM CONTENT

Advanced Oncotherapy – is the funding farce about to end, prompting a share price collapse? This company could well go bust!

Each month, Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) needs between £1 million and £2 million to keep the lights on. And to date, each month Odey Asset Management has been writing a cheque, buying shares at 25p (par value) to keep the show on the road. But the shares are slipping and is this farce about to end prompting a share price collapse?
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Tom

Sharestock September 23 2023: two more returning speakers to join the four new stars

This morning I met a man who organises tents. We wandered to the elevated lawn behind my barns and worked out how he can supply a big tent and chairs for ShareStock 2023. Things are now underway. Next in, I will get a friend of mine in to manage catering so that we have everything from morning coffee to home grown supper supplied on time. And I am working hard to get an amazing speaker line-up organised as soon as possible.
WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – 2022 trading update, “attractive growth prospects”?

Wood Group (WG.) has issued a trading update for the 2022 calendar year, including emphasising “underlying revenue growth… led by Operations and Consulting with a return to growth in H2 in Projects” and that it has “attractive growth prospects”.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Calm Down Gary Newman: Audioboom is still a sell

I see that, on twitter, comrade Gary Newman of this parish is suggesting that he is tempted by Audioboom (BOOM) largely because he sees there being more and more demand for podcasts.as his friend and colleague I urge him to sit down in a dark room, dream about kissing poisonous spiders in the jungle, and think again. Today’s 2022 trading update adds to the bear case as outlined by Lucian Miers in his tip of the year HERE, it is no reason to buy.
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TUI
TUI
PREMIUM CONTENT

TUI may be flying but it is still a short

Shares in TUI (TUI) have risen around 35% since December when it announced that it intends to pay back the German Government the expensive emergency funding it secured during the pandemic and there has been general relief amongst investors in the travel space ( and with travellers themselves) that normality has returned. So it is worthwhile examining whether the bear case is still intact.
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CEY
CEY
PREMIUM CONTENT

Centamin – Q4 and full-year update, a progressing gold BUY

Centamin (CEY) has issued an update on the fourth quarter and full-year of 2022, including emphasising that it is now looking forward to further increasing gold production while continuing to manage cost pressures and progressing the multiple identified opportunities across its portfolio.
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ITM
ITM
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vindicated Again, ITM Power – is the warning a kitchen sink or is there more to come?

A long call with Lucian Miers has just ended. As you may know he has moved from leafy Hampshire to the grim North of Yorkshire and has blundered out for a walk only to find himself in the middle of a snowstorm. Let us pray that he makes it back safely to his new home, without the need for the local Moors rescue team to unleash the whippets. We talked of ITM Power (ITM) where the great bear has increased his short position after today’s dire warning. But is that right?
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – 2022 pre-close trading update, still a relatively lower-risk Buy?

Essentra (ESNT) has issued a full year 2022 pre-close trading update including that its “resilience is supported by its breadth of customers, market categories, geographies and acquisition momentum” and confirming an intention to return approximately £150 million to shareholders this quarter. So what of a current 218p share price?
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Buy Fresnillo ( one of our share tips of the year and its already flying)

Fresnillo (FRES) has seven operating mines all of them in Mexico. This impacted it in 2022 with Mexican labour reform challenges adding to the wider ones such as supply chain bottlenecks and cost inflation. In October a third quarter report concluded “remain on track to meet our 2022 full year guidance of 50.5 to 56.5 moz of attributable silver... and 600 to 650 koz of attributable gold production” and just yesterday the company was “pleased to confirm the final testing of the downstream power distribution and control systems at the Juanicipio project is now complete… commissioning of the project has formally begun. Ramp up will now be conducted at pace”.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

Canadian Overseas – more bond conversions, easy cash for the death spirial providers, but far worse to come: do the math!

Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL) talks of its “bonds” as if it is a proper grown up company. Its Bonds” are a death spiral and today we have more evidence of how the (unnamed) provider is coining it in. Lovely jubbly for it.
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US-Flag-Blonde
PREMIUM CONTENT

AMC Entertainment – I have become an APE

As most people know, AMC Entertainment (NYSE - AMC), the US based cinema chain, would be bankrupt now (like its rival Cineworld) but for its status for the last couple of years as a meme stock which has allowed CEO Adam Aron to issue stock like confetti to the self-proclaimed Apes and keep the creditors at bay.
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JLP
JLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Jubilee Metals – Zambia and Corporate Update, making further progress

Jubilee Metals (JLP) has issued a ‘Zambia and Corporate Update’, including noting “successful completion of the water infrastructure upgrade at its Roan Project and continued advances in the production of cobalt and copper from waste at its Sable Refinery in Zambia”. So what with the shares currently at 10.25p in response?
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Father Christmas
PREMIUM CONTENT

The ShareProphets 20 tips of the year 2023 – No 12 a SELL from Lucian Miers

Between Christmas Eve and the start of the trading year 2023 we will be serving up 20 tips – 2 from each of our writers but four (all sells but that may not be true) from me. Twelfth up is a SELL from the Bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers. In his new residence in the grim North, Lucian writes:
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Father Christmas
PREMIUM CONTENT

The ShareProphets 20 share tips of the year 2023 – No 8 is a SELL from Lucian Miers

Between now and the start of the trading year 2023 we will be serving up 20 tips – 2 from each of our writers but four (all sells but that may not be true) from me. Eighth up is a SELL from the bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers
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KLR
KLR
PREMIUM CONTENT

Keller Group – income and growth value?

A trading update last month from Keller Group (KLR) included that “since the half year results, trading has continued at record levels” and that it is to “recommend a further 5% increase in the final dividend to 24.5p (2022: 23.3p). This would bring the 2022 total dividend payable to 37.7p (2021: 35.9p)”. We see income and growth value from a 747p offer price.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – interims, still a Buy

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st October 2022 and that, with also current momentum in the business, it now expects full-year performance to be ahead of expectations. Good news.
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PREMIUM CONTENT

SkinBioTherapeutics – no-one watching o’clock results and equity raise, what’s the outlook from here?

SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced no-one watching o’clock (4:30pm) results for its year ended 30th June 2022, with CEO Stuart Ashman stating “this financial year has been a mixed one for the group”. With the results coming with a potentially £3.5 million equity raise (albeit including an up to £1 million “retail offer”) at 16p per share, we’ve got some other words for it but where does this all leave the company now?
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VCP
VCP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Victoria plc – The Signs are There!

I have just finished reading Tim Steer’s excellent book, The Signs Were There (The clues for investors that a company is heading for a fall), which I thoroughly recommend. It contains chapters on many old favourites such as Connaught, Quindell/Slater & Gordon, Autonomy, Carillion and the Woodford Equity Income Fund. I hope that the book will be updated in the near future, and when it is I fully expect a chapter on Victoria plc (VCP).
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EZJ
EZJ
PREMIUM CONTENT

easyJet – full-year results, now return to profit potential?

easyJet (EZJ) has announced results for its year ended 30th September 2022, including emphasising “achieved record headline EBITDAR in Q4 of £674 million” and “peak holiday weeks this winter, such as October half term and Christmas week in the UK, are back to normal levels of volume. Through these key periods, ticket yields are showing strength on the prior year, with the Christmas period's ticket yield currently up c. 18%”. Is this overall good news?
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SWG
SWG

Shearwater – interims and traditionally weighted second half “has started strongly”, still a Buy?

Technology security services group Shearwater (SWG) has announced results for its half-year ended 30th September 2022 and that it remains “confident, based on delivering the existing pipeline of opportunities”. So what’s the half-year detail and what of a current 95.5p share price?
VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Versarien Loan Rescheduled: another £5m of Tory sleaze vicar?

Make no mistake, today’s news from Versarien (VRS) is a £5 million dollop of sleaze from the Tories. It also suggests that the bailout discounted placing is coming soon. To what seems wholly corrupt, first.
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Top-10

Notes from Underground – Most read articles for the week ending 3 Dec 2022

The most-read non-quiz non-Tom article this week is from Lucian Miers with  ‘Thoughts on the FTX scandal and a Short idea from one of the few to emerge from it with credit’ at No 3 or No 8 including Bearcasts.

VP
VP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Vp plc – interims, a “sustained demand”: Buy

Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has announced its results for its half-year ended 30th September 2022 and that “reflecting these results and our view of the future prospects of the group, the board is declaring an interim dividend of 11.0 pence per share an increase of 5%”. This sounds encouraging.
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DVO
DVO
PREMIUM CONTENT

Devro – recommended offer, now a little more than 2 months, near 71% gain!

September-recommended at a 180p offer price manufacturer of collagen products for the food industry Devro (DVO) has issued an update including that “current trading and the full year outlook are slightly ahead of the board's expectations, underpinned by a robust performance and foreign exchange tailwinds”… but, more significantly, has also announced a recommended offer... at 316.1p per share!

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Thoughts on the FTX scandal and a Short idea from one of the few to emerge from it with credit

Back in May I became mildly obsessed by Sam Bankman Fried (aka SBF), now a household name as the new Bernie Madoff. This was after I read a feature on him in the weekend FT, in its Lunch with the FT column in which celebrities from all walks of life who are newsworthy at time are interviewed over a meal at the FT’s expense. The Silicon Valley tech geeks in this series tend to order the most repulsive woke food and talk the most bullshit and generally be the most dislikeable but SBF really took the biscuit in this regard, and I spent several hours trying to find a way to short anything to do with him, unfortunately with no result. Since the implosion of FTX I have been addicted to following this lurid story and all students of fraud should spend time on this case study of folly, greed and incompetance. It has everything (certainly sex and drugs and maybe even rock and roll) and gives out a great many examples as to the crazy environment that we have been living in for so long.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Carr's Group – audit delay, shares set for short suspension but trading “has continued to perform strongly” BUY

Speciality agriculture and engineering group Carr's (CARR) has issued an update including that “the expected completion date for the group's audit and publication of the group's FY22 audited results is now mid-January 2023, later than the 3 January 2023 deadline required” but that it “has continued to perform strongly”, so what’s going on?

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – after update from management, we continue to look for 100p+ for shareholders ahead

On developer of “compounds to tackle obesity, cardiovascular disease and diabetes”, OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) we’ve previously noted ‘some delays in delivery but a sales recovery Buy’ – including with “product launches by Apollo Pharmacies in India and restocking by some partners with sales normalising… as in previous years, there was no contribution in this period from licence or royalty payments which tend to be received in the second half”. We’ve since again spoken to CEO Steve O'Hara.

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IMB
IMB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Imperial Brands – full-year results, we’re well ahead but still income and earnings value?

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its year ended 30th September 2022 and that it is “well placed to build on our track record of delivery over the next three years, improving returns and creating sustainable growth in shareholder value”.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Tesco – a 250p+ share price target after recent interims?

Shares in Tesco (TSCO) were above 270p as recently as August but have fallen back significantly as it faces clear macro challenges. However, it has a long track-record across economic conditions and we consider the share price fall has been too extreme.

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Bear
PREMIUM CONTENT

Beyond Meat is Beyond Redemption.

Before the market meltup, shares in Beyond Meat (BYND) closed at an all-time low of $11.90 on Wednesday night after releasing a disastrous Q3 earnings report. Is this a chance to buy into the BBC's favourite Nasdaq stock? No! Au contraire.

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BP
BP

BP – Q3 results, continued positive trading and shareholder returns

BP (BP.) has announced third quarter results emphasising “net debt fell for the tenth successive quarter; we are investing with discipline; and we are delivering on our commitment to shareholder distributions - announcing a further $2.5 billion share buyback”. So what of a now slightly further higher 486.45p share price?

SLP
SLP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Sylvania Platinum – improved production and prices, remains a growth and income Buy

Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced “best quarterly production since the COVID-lockdowns in early 2020. This increase in production ounces and the 2% higher PGM basket price recorded in the quarter, resulted in stronger profits”. The shares have currently responded up to 92p and there looks more to go.

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ARB
ARB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Kicking two men who are down

In my experience it is often better to short a company’s shares when they have already fallen sharply and it has indicated that its equity is worthless. After all, the upside for a short that goes to zero is 100% whether you open it at 100p or 10p.

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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh and Partners – shares up on interims, but much more to come? In short: YES!

Previously writing on early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) last month with the shares at 302p we concluded that they were still a Buy ahead of results for its half-year ended 31st July 2022. The shares previously closed at 284p but are now 304p on the back of the results.

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ITM
ITM
PREMIUM CONTENT

ITM Power, the best time to kick a man is when he is down

A couple of years ago I did a podcast suggesting that the share price of ITM Power (ITM) was truly bonkers.  In the mad rush to buy “green” investments it then got a bit more "truly bonkers". That is the problem with bubbles, they can just keep on expanding far longer than most folks think, defying all logic.  And green energy clearly is a bubble.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Amaroq Minerals – shares to recover following recent news flow and more ahead: BUY

Shares in Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ), formerly AEX Gold (AEXG), were above 40p in August before recently falling back to below 35p. They’re now back above 35p and we look for further recovery on upcoming news flow and sentiment improving.

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AHT
AHT
PREMIUM CONTENT

Ashtead – stockmarket darling for many years, now a short

It has been a stockmarket darling for years but plant hire group Ashtead (AHT) is a short at a current 4230p share price, around £19 billion market cap, and here is why.

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IMB
IMB
PREMIUM CONTENT

Imperial Brands – full-year trading statement, further shareholder returns ahead

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced year ended 30th September 2022 “trading in line with expectations with growth in aggregate market share for top-five priority markets” and that a strengthened balance sheet and achievement of target leverage are to enable the immediate start of an ongoing share buyback programme. The shares have responded positively, up to 1940p, so what’s the detail?

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DVO
DVO
PREMIUM CONTENT

Devro – a defensive Buy?

In these troubled economic times, how about a proven defensive investment offering a dividend yield of above 5%?

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VRS
VRS
PREMIUM CONTENT

Slashing (already dire) Versarien forecasts ahead of Q4 share price meltdown

You can sometimes get some borrow in Versarien (VRS) and if you can you should even with the shares, which were once almost 200p, having slumped to below 15p. The next collapse will happen and happen fairly soon. It is a when not an if.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – corporate excitement really kicking off, still a Buy

Essentra (ESNT) has issued “Sale of Filters and Packaging Completion of Sale” and “Appointment of New Chief Executive”-titled announcements and the shares have responded up by more than 15% to above 210p – Mr Market says it sounds like good news then.

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Tom

BREAKING: Jim Mellon, Matt Earl and Malcolm Burne join the fun – Sharestock 2023 now open for bookings

Some folks said that I did not give them enough notice about ShareStock 2022 so they were on holiday, could not find anywhere to stay or had accepted a prior engagement. So for 2023 I am giving you almost a year’s notice of an even more unusual event! We start with some amazing new speakers:

PREMIUM CONTENT

Bidstack ticks all the boxes for the bears

I start with a sort of Lucian Miers-style checklist for short candidates. How many boxes does Bidstack (BIDS) tick?

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RTN
RTN
PREMIUM CONTENT

Restaurant Group: My 2022 Short Tip (as a sell) Update.

While there is disagreement among the investment experts about whether inflation, stagflation or outright recessionary deflation is on the horizon, there seems to be a consensus that times are going to be tough for a the rest of this year and 2023.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - could Argo be a zero by Christmas? Hell yeah!

I start the podcast with a few macro musings then onto the Lucian Miers stock check list for bears and bulls before looking at Argo Blockchain (ARB) and how it could be a zero by Christmas.

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VCP
VCP
PREMIUM CONTENT

Gyrations at Victoria Carpets

Two weeks ago today at Sharestock, I spoke about Victoria Carpets Plc  (VCP) and outlined the reasons why I thought it still had the makings of a good short, despite its fall from £12 in January when I last wrote on it. Although the stock closed yesterday at just 427p, the share price gyrations of the past fortnight underline why I stated that right now might not be  a great time to open the short. The shares raced ahead post Sharestock but are now 53p below the share price then.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – Apollo Hospitals and Pharmacies launch, Sales recovery Buy

Previously writing on OptiBiotix Health (OPTI), earlier this month we noted prior delays in delivery from larger deals but that orders are already coming through and being booked as second half sales. Now some clear evidence of this with an announcement that the company’s GoFigure meal replacement shakes and powdered beverage shots have now been officially launched by India's Apollo Hospitals & Pharmacies.

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WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group – interims, now improving operational momentum and more to come

Wood Group (WG.) has announced its results for the first half of 2022 and that it expects an improved performance in the second half, including being helped by an improvement in its Turbines joint ventures.

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Essentra – interims, corporate excitement upcoming

Essentra (ESNT) has announced results for the first half of 2022 and that it “continue to see strength in our order book, providing encouragement as we move into the second half”.

BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh – half-year trading update, ‘performing well’

Early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh (BPM) has announced it remains confident it will continue with its historic growth trajectory and deliver attractive returns for investors, including a dividend per share “at least” maintained at last year’s 2.78p for the next two years.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Talking with Lucian Miers, THG and Versarien, both possible zeros

In today's Bearcast, I discuss banksters’ bonuses and the evil Tories, Made.com (MADE), Checkit (CKT), musicMagpie (MMAG), Versarien (VRS) and THG (THG).

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Headlam – interims, still a trading resilience Buy?

Floorcoverings distributor Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced results for the first half of 2022 and that trading resilience continues with it remaining on track to meet market expectations for the year.

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Bear

Picture Article Sharestock 2022, Two Till Very late Indeed

Sadly, photographer C did not hang around for the cold salmon, stuffed marrows, leeks and new potatoes with mint all from the garden. Nor for the home made ice cream and for the drinking which continued until 9 PM. And for some of us even longer as home made nettle beer was opened up inside the house. Next year he must stay for that and so can you. The date is now fixed as September 23 2023 and we have a new really big name headline speaker. But back to 2022.

Tom

Picture Article Sharestock 2022, 9 AM to 10 AM

Folks registered in the farmyard and headed through the main barn and up onto the new 35 yard by 35 yard elevated lawn ending with a Ha Ha where Sharestock took place. In the pictures below you see the tents, folks enjoying breakfast of croissants with butterand home made damson and blackberry jams and heading to the stand manned by my son Joshua who was obtaining an early lesson in the joys of capitalism. All profits on the stand go to his ice cream fund.

Gold
PREMIUM CONTENT

From Montana To ShareStock In Wales (By Thirty Yards) As Gold Hangs Around

Gold ended the week at $1717 – hardly moved from last week’s $1713. I, on the other hand, took a trip to Wales – by 30 yards – to attend ShareStock 2022 courtesy of ShareProphets’ esteemed leader Tom Winnifrith. It was an interesting affair - especially as Tom Winnifrith threatened to hurl Optibiotix' (OPTI) head honcho into the river Dee!

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Ignore director spoof share purchases, fundamentals will out: ref Cake Box

Back in November of last year the CEO of Cake Box (CBOX) sold 3 million shares at 350p to mug fund managers. That means that over the past two years he has trousered £16.4 million at 170p and 350p. Lucky him. The company, which I have called out for months as a slam dunk car crash waiting to happen, has recently served up a horrific profit warning and its shares touched 90p. But then the CEO invested £250,000 at 121p and hey presto the shares are now 142p – more than halfway back to the pre-warning 180p level. This is absurd.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – trading statement and director change, reasons for confidence

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has issued an AGM update including a trading statement and that Finance Director Adrian Marsh has informed the company of his intention to retire on a successor being in place.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Cineworld – a shorters nightmare or a shorters wet dream?

Shares in Cineworld (CINE) are rocketing. They were down to 2p. Today they are more than 50% ahead at just under 7p, valuing this company at £90 million. On the BBs folks are talking 10p and 20p. They have not been this excited and screamed “burn shorters burn” since they piled inro Petropavlovsk (POG) just before it went bust. Or Thomas Cook, shares in which surged from 4p to 14p in the last fortnight before it went bust!

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TUI
TUI
PREMIUM CONTENT

TUI will be the next Thomas Cook, a zero: Lucian Miers

Next time TUI (TUI) threatens to go bust the German Government will be in no position to bail it out given how many other large German companies will be on their uppers by this winter. So says Lucian Miers who is short of the stock in a material way.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Cake Box Told y’all! Disastrous warning and it will get worse

Lucian Miers may have become a big fan of Cake Box’s (CBOX) egg-free mega calorie cream cakes but it seems that others are taking a different view. You have been repeatedly warned that this was a disaster in waiting and today there is a catastrophic profits warning and it is only going to get worse. How jolly glad the CEO and his Mrs who sold 3 million shares at 350 to poor dumb sheeple fund managers last November and 3.75 million 170p in September 2020 will be to have banked £16.88 million as the shares are now just 98p. And things will get worse.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Macfarlane – interims and set for another year of profit growth

Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced results for the first half of 2022 and that it expects to deliver another year of profit growth.

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Tom

Tom Winnifrith: New shorts, old shorts, no recordings no holds barred in just 12 days

It is just 12 days to Sharestock when 70-80 folks will spend the day in a tent on a raised garden on the banks of the River Dee. There will be free drinks all day and up to four meals of locally produced food. There is salmon and pike fishing, prize croquet but this day is for those who want to make more money from shares. It will be fun and entertaining with no speaker, least of all me, pulling their punches.

Aferian – interims, difficult half but confidence in second half prospects - BUY

B2B video streaming technology company Aferian (AFRN) has announced results for its half year ended 31st May 2022 and confidence in second half prospects.

PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – current trading disappointment, but highly favourable risk/reward here?

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced that it now expects half-year sales in its new structure to be materially lower than expected and, though it expects sales normalising in the second half and healthy growth next year, the current year is to now be “insufficient to make up the H1 deficit”. We profusely apologise for the short-term disappointment though, having spoken to the company, what to do now with the shares down at 20p to buy, a £17.6 million market cap?

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Bear

New shorts, old shorts, no recordings no holds barred in 19 days time

It s just 19 days to Sharestock and I bought the big tent for it yesterday!. It will not just be about shares to short. Peter Hambro will talk about gold and how to play it. Chris Bailey will talk about making money from long only value investing in a bear market and 3 CEOs will face a 15 minute grilling from me, including Optibiotix boss Steve O’Hara and Cathal Friel of Open Orphan. But the short sellers presenting are legends.

TGA
TGA

Thungela Resources – interims - we are 80% up here so what next?

Thungela Resources (TGA) has announced results for the first half of 2022, noting “profit for the reporting period of R9.6 billion in a volatile operating environment (H1 2021: R351 million)”. This has currently helped the shares up to around 1500p, so how does the value look now?

PREMIUM CONTENT

BOOM BOOM - when is the lack of profits warning at Audioboom which will expose its painfully thin balance sheet?

Bear raider Miles Dyson and I chatted the other day. Lucian Miers says that - apart from me - Miles is his new best buddy. His work on Audioboom (BOOM) suggesting fabricated user numbers is compelling as you can see here. But last night he unearthed a hammer blow which, as I shall explain below, will have devastating consequences for the share price.

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VCP
VCP
PREMIUM CONTENT

How Victoria did respond to the bear dossier, Sam Antar would be proud

A couple of weeks ago I pondered how Victoria (VCP) would or should respond to a quite devastating bear dossier from Iceberg Research. In a way it has played the attack cleverly but actually its response makes the stock even more of a sell.

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Tom

Just 26 days to go: Book Now!

Yes it is just 26 days to the most unusual event in the share calendar – ShareStock. On September 10, sixty to eighty folks will be sitting in tents on an elevated lawn by the banks of the River Dee listening to legends from the investment world give talks and them chatting to them informally, one to one, in the drinks tent.

VCP
VCP
PREMIUM CONTENT

How does Victoria respond to the Iceberg bear dossier?

Short selling outfit Iceberg recently published a bear dossier on carpets roll-up play Victoria (VCP), which I reposted on this website HERE. Writing to you from Greece, I am not aware if the deadwood press is taking this matter onwards as what Iceberg wrote was very punchy indeed and I am sure that Victoria’s PR spinners will be using phrases involving the dreaded L word (lawyer) to any of the spineless 4th Estate hacks who ask questions.

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Tom

ShareStock – No Video Links this is a personal experience!

“Can I do my chat with you via video link?” said the least well-known person attending Sharestock on September 10 as a CEO speaker? “No! You are uninvited” said I. He missed the point about this event, it is personal. You can listen to all the speakers on stage but then collar them in the drinks tent before or afterwards for a one to one chat

AVO
AVO
PREMIUM CONTENT

Advanced Oncotherapy is a slam dunk short

I should declare that I am a shareholder in this company. I bought 1 share a few years ago so that I could attend its AGM to quiz the management on the catalogue of lies they had told to investors.  Then covid struck. On a properly regulated market Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) would have been given the order of the boot years ago, but this is AIM.

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BP
BP

BP – strong second quarter results and outlook confidence, Buy

BP (BP.) has announced second quarter and half-year results including a second quarter attributable profit of $9.26 billion and 10% increased dividend per share to $0.06006 and outlook confidence with ongoing supply disruptions in the industry and a relative lack of inventories.

PREMIUM CONTENT

Headlam – half-year trading statement, a value Buy?

Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced a “pleasing” half year performance and that it “remains on track to meet market expectations for the year”.

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GSK
GSK
PREMIUM CONTENT

GSK: half-year update - what now after consumer health business demerger?

GSK plc (GSK) has announced a “slightly better than expected” first-half performance, and the shares have responded up to 1755.8p.

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Boom

ShareStock – Final speaker announced, and there will be no videos

Somebody had the cheek to ask if I will record videos of ShareStock. Er, no!

PREMIUM CONTENT

Made.com and Fevertree and others – don’t wait for the coup de grace!

After Fevertree’s (FEVR) recent profits warning, Lucian Miers says that he has closed his short. Not that he expects the shares to surge higher just that he sees greater opportunities out there for the teddies. I am not so sure.

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WG
WG
PREMIUM CONTENT

Wood Group - a Buy (again)?

Last year we banked a more than 40%, less than 7 months, offer-to-bid gain on Wood Group (WG.) at 300.3p. That proved good timing with the shares eventually falling back towards 150p before then recovering to above 250p again. However, they are now available at a 155p offer price and are again a Buy.

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Gold

ShareStock – Final Main stage speaker announced: gold guru Peter Hambro

I indicated a week or so ago that I was bored by gold’s failure to run higher. Maybe that was a buy signal, as it has, since then, gone up! Is gold a barbarous relic or will it zoom as chaos descends on the West? Peter Hambro has been involved in gold for 50 years - if anyone knows, he knows.

PREMIUM CONTENT

OptiBiotix Health – ‘commercial and scientific update’, remains a strong buy

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced an update on recent scientific and commercial activities, emphasising it is “increasing the range of products, applications, and territories creating the potential to open larger market opportunities”.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Why Cineworld just has to be your number one short, target price 0p

It is hard to imagine a more perfect storm than the one that now faces Cineworld (CINE). I know Lucian and I have been telling you to short it for some while, and you will be well in the money if you have followed that advice, with the shares now just 21p. But that is 21p too high, and so it is not to late to open a short or to add to your position.

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HAT
HAT
PREMIUM CONTENT

H&T Group – shares further up ahead of scheduled interims, bank gains?

Previously updating on the UK’s largest pawnbroker and a leading retailer of new and pre-owned jewellery and watches, H&T Group (HAT) we concluded that we continued to look for further news flow to drive a return to an above 350p share price. The shares have now reached further higher than that.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Fevertree warns – told y’all, worse still to come

Lucian Miers and I both warned that this would happen as, I think, did the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. Chris Bailey is a non-drinker and disagreed. Never trust a non-drinker, as my pal Evil Knievil (not a non-drinker) would say. On 19 May Fevertree (FEVR) told us to expect flat FY EBITDA of £63 million to £66 million. Today, less than two months later…..

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HAT
HAT
PREMIUM CONTENT

H&T Group – positive trading update and acquisition

H&T Group (HAT), the UK's largest pawnbroker and a leading retailer of new and pre-owned jewellery and watches, has announced a half-year trading update and an acquisition.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Essentra – Packaging business sale agreement a “significant step” for the future?

Essentra (ESNT) has announced what it emphasises is “a significant step” to a future as a global leading manufacturer and distributor of components with a clear strategy and significant opportunities to accelerate growth and expand market share. This is with an agreed sale of its Packaging business.

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Bearcast
PREMIUM CONTENT

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Will Lucian Miers survive Thursday Night?

As a Scottish Catholic, Lucian Miers will support Norway this Thursday. I think this is unwise, as we are sitting amongst the Northern Ireland supporters. I'll have to explain to fellow members of the GAWA that Lucian is a Fenian, hence his sudden love-in with the land of Quisling. On shares, I look at Edenville Energy (EDL) and its new board member, Paul Ryan (remember him?). Then, I discuss Central Copper Resources, Cineworld (CINE), and Purplebricks (PURP), which, ceteris paribus, will go bust in a year.

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EUA
EUA
PREMIUM CONTENT

As Eurasia shares slide, 2 questions it MUST answer

On 4 December 2020, shares in Russia PGM promote, Eurasia Mining (LSE:EUA), hit 40.55p. Morons across the interweb, spurred on by blatant market abuse, pondered what colours their Ferraris would be painted. Today, the shares are just 5p, after dire finals earlier this week. There are two questions Eurasia must answer:

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PREMIUM CONTENT

DS Smith – full-year results, ‘building on the momentum’

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its year ended 30th April 2022, with it emphasising “a strong improvement in profitability and high cash generation… The new financial year has started well, building on the momentum”. This sounds good.

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SFR
SFR
PREMIUM CONTENT

Severfield – full-year results, a clear trading resilience: Buy

Structural steel company, Severfield (SFR), has announced results for the year ended 26th March 2022. Its growth strategy, the company claims, is delivering a record order book, with a broad diversity of sectors, geographies and clients, providing good earnings visibility through 2023 and beyond.

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BPM
BPM
PREMIUM CONTENT

B.P. Marsh and Partners – full-year results, a value Buy

B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM), the specialist investor in early stage financial services businesses, has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2022, emphasising its growth trajectory despite the current “headwinds for all businesses”.

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PREMIUM CONTENT

Avacta – an aide memoire for Lucian Miers

As we marched on Saturday, the Rogue Bloggers discussed this and that. As he sobered up, even Lucian Miers joined in the conversation, and asked whether he should short Avacta (AVCT). The answer is yes, and here is why.

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STX
STX
PREMIUM CONTENT

Each morning, I am disappointed by Shield Therapeutics

On February 18, I generated industrial-scale abuse (of me) from anonymous internet warriors. All I did was suggest Shield Therapeutics (STX) as a slam-dunk short, at 25.5p.  The savants insisted, as is usually the case in such circumstances, that I didn’t understand the maths, and should go back to working in a pizza store, etc, etc, etc. The shares are now just 14.6p, and the final collapse is almost upon us. Add to your shorts. Let me explain.

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