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Even a few of our detractors have now come around
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its year ended 30th April 2022, with it emphasising “a strong improvement in profitability and high cash generation… The new financial year has started well, building on the momentum”. This sounds good.
Structural steel company, Severfield (SFR), has announced results for the year ended 26th March 2022. Its growth strategy, the company claims, is delivering a record order book, with a broad diversity of sectors, geographies and clients, providing good earnings visibility through 2023 and beyond.
B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM), the specialist investor in early stage financial services businesses, has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2022, emphasising its growth trajectory despite the current “headwinds for all businesses”.
As we marched on Saturday, the Rogue Bloggers discussed this and that. As he sobered up, even Lucian Miers joined in the conversation, and asked whether he should short Avacta (AVCT). The answer is yes, and here is why.
On February 18, I generated industrial-scale abuse (of me) from anonymous internet warriors. All I did was suggest Shield Therapeutics (STX) as a slam-dunk short, at 25.5p. The savants insisted, as is usually the case in such circumstances, that I didn’t understand the maths, and should go back to working in a pizza store, etc, etc, etc. The shares are now just 14.6p, and the final collapse is almost upon us. Add to your shorts. Let me explain.
The next target is lunch which is 3 miles away. We are, I calculate, now on track to catch up with Brian Basham at c 3pm. My fellow rogue bloggers, even hungover Lucian Miers and reader N who has an incredibly heavy backpack, are on fine form. I am not. Something is not right and I am not eating just taking on more liquids. I have confessed to Nick Richards at Woodlarks that I might not make it to the finishing line this year. But I try to think about the next three miles which takes us, just, past halfway. Master Miers,a barking mad commie is staying at the back of the group to help me along and entertaining me with his bonkers world view. He makes our in house Euro loon Jonathan Price who normally is at the back with me seem quite sane. Think of my suffering as Master Miers explains why houses belonging to rich people should be nationalised and donate to Woodlarks HERE
There are two late dropouts: reader Sam and Andrew Bell; Fleet Street legend, Brian Bashan, has gone AWOL. So, it is just me, reader N, Steve Moore, and a very hungover Lucian Miers (along with his communist son). Lucian's hangover has delayed us by 35 minutes, but now, we are off! If you have yet to donate, please do so HERE.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that it still expects 2022 average production to increase to 15,500-18,500 boe/d. So what of a share price slipping to 101p in response?
Lucian Miers wrote here a couple of weeks ago about Fevertree (FEVR) where he remains short. There may be some people laughing at him as the fizzy drinks group fairly promptly served up a trading statement suggesting that it was on track to meet forecasts. But that is looking in the rear-view mirror. What is important is what happens going forward.
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced first-quarter results, emphasising that its strategy remains to bring the Nalunaq gold project back into production, and use it as a platform for strategic mineral assets in Greenland.
I am pleased to announce the 5th of our six main stage speakers. Do join us for Sharestock, the share show with an all-day bar, held in North Wales (by 30 yards). Joining me, Gabriel Grego, Chris Bailey, Lucian Miers and 4 CEOs is…
Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced two new appointments: Manuel Lino Silva de Sousa (Ollie) Oliveira as Chairman, and Berenberg as joint corporate broker. That is good news for institutional interest, with the market cap now £390 million, at a 14.85p share price.
Floorcoverings distributor group Headlam (HEAD) has issued an AGM trading update including that it “continues to be comfortable with profit expectations for the year”. So what of a current 338p share price?
Miner in Azerbaijan, Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) states that it “is pleased to announce its final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2021”. However, the shares are down to 85p to buy in response.
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) “is pleased to announce the acquisition of PackMann Gesellschaft für Verpackungen und Dienstleistungen mbH, a protective packaging distribution business based in Eppelheim near Heidelberg, Germany”, emphasising it is to accelerate the growth of its protective packaging business in Northern Europe. Crazy name eh! German is such an amazing language. But a good deal.
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its half year ended 31st March 2022 emphasising “stabilisation of our core combustible business” and “successful consumer trials validate our approach and strengthen our confidence in our Next Generation Product strategy”. This sounds encouraging.
Gold miner in Kazakhstan, AltynGold (ALTN) states that it “is pleased to announce its 1Q22 production update” and the shares have moved up to 130p, so what’s the latest?...
Jubilee Metals (JLP) has announced a performance update of its new and expanded fully integrated South African Inyoni PGM and chrome operations and its Zambian southern copper strategy. So what’s the situation, with the shares having responded up to 15.4p?
Lucian Miers’ (the bear raider) top three UK short positions are:
AEX Gold (AEXG) is pleased to announce its addition of mineral exploration licences No. 2020-41 and 2021-11, covering areas in South Greenland.
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced “a solid start to 2022, with first quarter sales and profits from continuing operations ahead of the same period in 2021… expectations for the full year are unchanged”. So what of a current 120.5p share price?
I suspect that very few investors and surprisingly few PLC directors have any idea what a recession looks like. For starters most folks in both camps are rich but in a recession, it is the poor or lower middle classes who get whacked hardest. That is especially so when it is an inflationary recession as those lower down the order tend to have the least ability to “play catch up” by forcing through pay rises. And secondly you have to be of a certain age to remember a savage inflationary recession as an adult – the last one was ended with some fairly painful medicine by the blessed Lady Thatcher forty years ago.
BP (BP.) has announced a first quarter of the year $20.4 billion loss... though also reduced net debt to $27.5 billion, a maintained 5.46 cents per share dividend and a proposed further $2.5 billion share buyback. So what’s going on?
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced year ending 30th April “trading in line with management expectations… enter the next financial year with confidence”, helping the shares up to 325.6p.
Fresnillo (FRES) has announced first quarter of the year production including attributable silver production of 13.28 million ounces and gold production of 0.15 million ounces and that, despite challenges, “2022 guidance remains unchanged”.
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced 2021 calendar year results and that it “is very well placed for the year ahead and investors will have a lot of news to digest”.
Shares in equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) closed at 820p before the latest news. However, they are now up to 940p on news that it is now considered “appropriate to investigate the sale of the company and is therefore launching a formal sale process”. So what now?
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has announced its first quarter of the year results and that it reconfirms its full-year 2022 guidance. We are well ahead on this share tip where we are also drinking our own medicine so what to do now?
Cybersecurity group Shearwater (SWG) has emphasised a “set of market-beating numbers… we remain excited for what the future holds”. What of a share price response up to 140p?
Iron ore pellet producer, Ferrexpo (FXPO), has announced results for the 2021 calendar year, and that it has continued to operate, launching a significant humanitarian programme to assist those directly impacted by the Russian invasion.
Centamin (CEY) has announced a quarterly update including “as planned, Q1 2022 production reflected the successful transition to owner mining in the underground… reiterates its 2022 full-year guidance”, so what of a share price response currently down closer to 90p?
Shares in Flowtech Fluidpower (FLO) remain below levels of earlier this year despite recent results showing encouraging recovery and noting an encouraging start to this year, with there looking to be scope for further recovery in profitability and for the share price.
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced it “is pleased to provide a production, sales and operations review for its Gedabek contract area in western Azerbaijan, for the three months to 31 March 2022”. So, what of the shares responding slightly higher to 95p?
Iron-ore pellets producer, Ferrexpo (FXPO), has announced - despite operational constraints following Russia's invasion of Ukraine - “production of 2.7 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022, representing a figure in line with the same period in 2021, and 11% below the previous quarter… Sales in 1Q 2022 of 2.6 million tonnes… net cash position of approximately US$159 million”.
Cybersecurity group, Shearwater (SWG), has announced a “new contract win, to the potential value of up to c.£21.0m, with a leading telecommunications and media company”, helping its shares more than 25% higher, to 138p, in response.
In response to some dynamite exposes on Shareprophets about Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (COPL), the company released a bizarre RNS in which the sole executive, Arthur Millholland, dismissed his critics, mainly Tom Winnifrith, as snake oil salesmen and expressed “renewed confidence” about the future. Pots and kettles spring to mind here when Millholland’s track record is taken into consideration.
Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has issued a trading update announcement which is headlined “Expected performance ahead of expectations driven by increased demand”. This sounds good.
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced exploration drilling results from its Nalunaq project, which, it emphasises, verify that the Valley Block, unrecognised by previous operators, is a new high-grade zone and supports its 'Dolerite Dyke Model'. This, it says, has been used to predict the location and extent of five new high-grade zones.
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced in a trading update “first-half adjusted group operating profit ahead of last year on constant currency basis” and full-year outlook in line with guidance.
As Q1 limps to a close, it is difficult to see clearly through the fog of war. Mindful, doubtless, of the Covid aftermath – which bottomed almost exactly two years ago and led to a spectacular rally in stocks – investors have returned, and the sell-off seems to have petered out.
Shares are now ‘ex-dividend’ for Optibiotix’s ‘ProBiotix Health’ business, which will be spun off onto the AQSE Growth Market – with an associated fundraise – at the end of this month. Additionally, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX), in which it has a 20.73% stake, has just announced half-year results – that the market did not like. So, how does the valuation stack up now?
Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced an update on its actions and impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concluding on Russia “an orderly transfer of our business as a going concern would be in the best interests… have begun negotiations with a local third party about a transfer”.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced that it intends to seek admission of its ProBiotix Health business onto the AQSE Growth Market with an associated fund raise of approximately £2.5 million at an indicative premoney valuation of £22.5 million and a distribution in specie. With, at a 35.5p share price, OptiBiotix as a whole currently capitalised at £31.3 million, is this good news? You bet!
Cybersecurity group Shearwater (SWG) has announced a three-year contract with a global financial organisation, totalling $4.1 million, to provide the customer with security software across the breadth of its operations.
There now seem to be serious peace talks in Ukraine with both sides, apparently, prepared to give a little to stop the bloodshed. I know too many folks are beating the war drums and bursting with pride every time a British missile takes out a Russian tank but they are mistaken as I explained in a podcast HERE. As a human being I pray for peace and an end to the killing. If there is peace all stocks will melt up, but especially the big caps.
Europe’s leading floorcoverings distributor group Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced its results for the 2021 calendar year and said “trading in January and February 2022 in line with plan, with the strong margin performance in 2021 maintained into 2022”.
Fresnillo (FRES) has announced 2021 results and on-going challenges but also confidence in its prospects. Really?
I see that amid some optimism that we might see peace in Ukraine the FTSE 100 is staging a bit of a rally as I write. And with that all sorts of stocks among the small and mid-caps are heading higher. Of course, I pray for peace. If we get it then all stocks will be marked higher but for how long?
H&T Group (HAT) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that looking ahead it “is well positioned”. Is it?
The gardening photos from the Welsh hovel will appear later on my own site. Before then I review the 4 retail stocks of the Lucian Miers apocalypse: Versarien (VRS), Supply@ME Capital (SYME), Eurasia (EUR) and Chill Brands (CHLL) and then my 10 stocks to collapse by Christmas. One has fallen so far it is probably not a short now though I would not buy it while three look set to go to zero, possibly as soon as next week in one case. My 10 are Supply, Chill Brands, Versarien, Avacta (AVCT), Wildcat Petroleum (WCAT), Amigo (AMGO), Cineworld (CINE), Argo Blockchain (ARB), Verditek (VDTK) and Tern (TERN). I also look at the oil price and consider whether those sitting on gains might bank a few profits.
Early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced it has completed a sale of its 77.25% shareholding in Summa Insurance Brokerage for £8.1 million after all associated costs, with also a further £1.5 million in full for its loan, emphasising this “once again demonstrates the success of our investment approach over a number of years”.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has issued a trading update commenting that 2021 “total invoiced sales for the group were £2.2m (2020: £1.5m) an increase of 46.7% on the previous year and in line with market expectations” and including that it “has made good progress against its stated aims of focusing on a smaller number of large partners in key strategic markets and expects to see the benefits of these in 2022 and beyond”. What does that mean at the bottom-line?
Recent Income recommendation Rio Tinto (RIO) has announced record results for 2021 and that it is “targeting disciplined investment in commodities that will see strong demand in the coming decades”.
PGMs tailings materials retreatment company in South Africa Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st December 2021, noting a net profit of $24.4 million, “cash balance at 31 December 2021 of $110.1 million (HY1 FY2021: $67.1 million)” and that it is expecting second half-year PGM ounce production improvement.
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced results for the 2021 calendar year and that 2022 trading in the early months has been “encouraging” and that it is confident it will deliver further growth.
I start with Ukraine, Russia and all that macro shite and say afew things which challenge the Western narrative and which some of you may disagree with violently. I cover Ferrexpo (FXPO),Amur (AMC) and Eurasia (EUA) in this section. I mention Cineworld (CINE) and then discuss today’s news from Optibiotix (OPTI) and, en passant, Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) where I am buying more shares this afternoon.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has published a “Business update” announcement including that it has now progressed to the second phase of its AxisBiotix-Ps food supplement for psoriasis product commercialisation strategy and that the SkinBiotix active ingredient project with Sederma is on track. Sounds good!
Can we all agree that the Covid bubble/lets all WFH bubble has burst and also that the tech bubble is bursting. I will write up the top way to cash in on this on the N50 website this weekend. Meanwhile here is some more free money for the bears.
Given the hysteria surrounding the situation in Ukraine over the weekend, the falls in Western-listed Russian names were relatively muted with most being down low single digit percentages on Monday. The exception to this appeared to be FTSE 100 constituent Evraz plc (EVR), the steel producer and coal miner with major operations in Russia and Ukraine. The stock which had closed on Friday at 444p opened at 285p, showing a decline of 159p or 35%. The press was quick to latch on to this “carnage”:
Jadestone Energy (JSE) states that it “is pleased to provide its guidance outlook for 2022”, including noting that it expects to generate material incremental cash at current oil prices and premiums and may consider an increase in shareholder returns through increased dividends and/or share buy-backs later in the year. Sounds good.
BP plc (BP.) has announced fourth quarter and full year 2021 results and argues “strong progress” in its transformation to an ‘integrated energy company’.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has made what it describes as a “Commercial and strategy update”, including arguing “look forward with confidence to further commercial progress of the group in the current year and beyond”. What does that though mean tangibly?
Jubilee Metals (JLP) states that it “is pleased to announce its unaudited operational results for the six months to 31 December 2021” and that it looks forward to “the next six months with the full impact of the Inyoni facility being felt, as well as the targeted ramp-up at Roan enabling us to take another major step in our commitment to achieve annual copper production of 25 000 tonnes”. So what of a current 16.3p share price, £396 million market capitalisation?
AltynGold (ALTN) has made a “4th Quarter results” announcement and states that it is “positive that we will deliver even better numbers in the coming year”. So what’s the detail?…
Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for its quarter ended 31st December 2021, including cash of $110.1 million and “significant progress in terms of access to additional chrome tailings resources at both the Eastern and Western Operations”.
This has been a very good share tip for our readers but there is more to come. Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced that “2021 production averaged 12,545 boe/d, in line with expectations” and “cash balances at the end of the year are estimated at US$117.4 million, representing an increase of 30% year-on-year, even after the largest spending programme in the company’s history”. This sounds encouraging.
Lucian Miers and myself have repeatedly called out Cineworld (CINE) as a compelling short and those who have followed our calls have prospered. But the FT, the home of almost every wrong call in history from backing the UK joining the Euro to selling its gold in 1997, runs a story “Cineworld debt pile set to save cinema operator from bankruptcy.” You might think this is a reason to buy. Au contaire. A resting banksta writes to me to explain.
Today we were told that the COO of Cake Box (CBOX) had bought £50,000 of shares yesterday. Compared to the £10.5 million dump by his boss in November it is peanuts. Showing rather poor form, Dr Jaswir Singh made the purchase BEFORE rather than AFTER the company put out a weedy and patronising RNS trying to refute the bear case as explained HERE on Sunday. Surely the good Dr was aware that a refutation was coming and thus had price sensitive information? While Dr Singh was dealing like a dervish, Lucian Miers went to visit the franchise stores in Eastleigh and Southampton. The photo below is from Eastleigh.
Components and (currently) Packaging and Filters company Essentra (ESNT) has announced fourth quarter like-for-like revenue up 12.7% on the prior year (+11.1% v. Q4 2019) and that it “expects to deliver FY 2021 operating profit in the range of analysts’ forecasts” (£80.7m-£84.3m) and “order book trends remain strong”. The shares are now 340p, a just shy of £1 billion market cap, but is there still further to go here?
Shares in cyber security group Shearwater (SWG) are down from more than 200p reached early last summer and more than 140p as recently as November to currently 99p to buy. There is clear trading expectations risk, but also reasons for optimism that the shares will spark again and they now look a risk/reward Buy.
October share tip at a 279p offer price, UK pawnbroking group H&T (HAT) has announced that “trading performance during the second half remained consistently strong and the group expects to report profit before tax for the full year within the range of current market expectations”.
If the share price of a company is in sharp decline and the CEO walks it is for one of two reasons and neither is good. It could be that the CEO knows that things can only get worse and wants to put as much clear blue water between him and a ship that is bound to sink. Or the rest of the board know that stakeholders will only do what is needed to try to keep the ship afloat if there is a change of captain, it is an admission that the ship is in deep trouble. Either way it is always a sign to sell or short or add to shorts and that brings me to Omega Diagnostics (ODX) where I have been a long term bear.
I start with a weather report from Chez Atwater, refer to this article, and ask any cultists to explain. Then there is a fake sheikh (or not)-hunting competition regarding ADM Energy (ADM). Finally I ask if we bears really will have a long promised tea party in 2022 as slimmer of the month Lucian Miers suggests. Heck, he is even thinking of shorting Tesla again.
Centamin (CEY) has announced “the final quarter delivered what was a highly successful 2021” and that it is now looking forward to delivering on a clear roadmap to growing and unlocking further value from the Sukari gold mine in Egypt and its exploration portfolio. The shares have responded up to 93.425p and look to have much further to go.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) was one of our tips of the year, with we anticipating financial progress as its deals for its compounds expand and further deals kick-in. It has now announced that a further human volunteer study on its cholesterol-reducing probiotic LPLDL - on a different population group of hypercholesterolemic adults – has shown “at six weeks, when volunteers taking placebo were compared to those taking LPLDL, there were statistically significant changes to clinically important cardiovascular risk”, including “34.2% reduction in total cholesterol (p=0.001)”.
Following recently a shareholding transaction in an investee company further suggesting value, B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has now announced another deal suggesting the same.
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has published a fourth quarter update, including noting an underway technical study to determine the commercial viability of adding to its production from an existing underground mine, Vejnaly, in the second half of this year.
Shares in The Hut Group, THG plc (THG), listed at 500p in September 2020, then zoomed to 800p but now trade below 200p. Even so this business is still valued by the market at £2.2 billion.
I start with a few minutes on Woodlarks. This may be my last year doing the Rogue Bloggers Walk but myself, Lucian Miers, and Jonathan Price are minded to do it once more in May or June. On the basis that it could be a last hurrah and that you may want to consider a way of shifting that Christmas belly bulge how about you join us in 2022? Then onto Optibiotix (OPTI) where its NEDs have behaved in a most disgraceful way with free money share option troughing. As a loyal shareholder this is another kick in the gonads for me and I urge Steve O’Hara to sack three of the four of them and replace them with one new, less greedy, individual. Actually I’d go for all four booting out chairman Neil Davidson as well.
Gold ended the year at $1830 – up $20 in a shortened week, but down almost $70 on the year. So much for my belief that anything to do with Gold would have a good year – and so much for my $2000 at year-end prediction. But I sense things are swinging back in favour for the yellow metal.
Between Boxing Day and January 3 all of our writers will be serving up their share tips of the year for 2022 – and now a new occassional contributor has stepped up to the plate so that will be 24 tips. Twenty second in our series is a SELL from Lucian Miers. Over to the Bard of the Boleyn…
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced that it “is pleased to provide shareholders with an end of year update”, with it noting a revised mine plan will be driven by drilling results in the Valley Block where the early signs are “very encouraging”.
Specialist investor in early stage financial services businesses B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced it has sold its stake in UK Courier and Taxi fleet motor insurance specialising business Walsingham (WMIL), emphasising the transaction is another example of it being able to identify niche opportunities to back successful management teams and to successfully realise value for shareholders.
This is a market where being short can be exceedingly painful. As Gabriel Grego found out the other day, even what appear to be slam dunk frauds can roof it. This is what happens at the fag end of a bull market. But in the UK, I sense that there is now real ennui among investors, both institutional and the spivs at the bucket shops, when it comes to placings.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has followed a sales agreement with Apollo Hospitals Enterprises for its GoFigure weight management product range in India with an agreement for GoFigure and SlimBiome Medical in Saudi Arabia (KSA). Is this further encouraging progress or just more flannel?
Video streaming technology company Aferian (AFRN) has announced year ended 30th November 2021 performance “ahead of the prior year, and in line with board expectations” and confidence looking ahead including increased exit run rate annual recurring revenue of approximately $15 million and further visibility as customers place orders up to 60 weeks in advance in response to extended lead times in the supply chain.
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced that 2021 average annual production is expected to be around the midpoint of the 11,500-13,500 boe/d guidance range and that it “now expect to reap the benefits of higher production and attractive pricing, given ongoing oil price strength, our unhedged position and recent improvements in the Tapis differential”.
I trust that numerous warnings from myself and Lucian have allowed you to make good money from shorting Cineworld (CINE) all the way down. The shares have collapsed this week on news that it has lost a Canadian court case and is on the hook for C$1.23 billion but that merely accelerates the end game here. Do not even think of closing your short at 31p. My target is buttons. Post an inevitable debt for equity swap and bailout placing this is a penny share.
An already widespread virus mutating to what is being seen clinically as “extremely mild cases”. Not bad news then… except in Airstrip One – and a resultant very negative stock market reaction. However government response madness is gradually being revealed and travel and leisure should resultantly gradually recover, though some share prices here remain depressed. Opportunity?…
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st October 2021 and that it has “confidence to deliver a significant improvement in profitability during the second half of this year” following an increased pre-tax profit to £175 million in the first half.
Previously writing on Essentra (ESNT) we noted ‘Q3 update, adds corporate excitement potential’ with the company “reviewing the full range of strategic options for the Filters business” with it aiming to become a pure play Components business over time, targeting strategic focus and an acceleration of organic and inorganic growth. Now a further “Strategic Update” and a “Directorate Change”.
Although the S&P 500 index is still around all time highs, there have been some savage declines of late in certain names and 275 stocks are lower now than they were six months ago. This suggests to me that the health of the US markets is much more fragile and precarious than the level of the three main indices implies.
Equipment rental company Vp plc (VP.) has announced results for its half-year ended 30th September 2021 emphasising “a strong and continuing recovery in all of our businesses”. This sounds encouraging.
Evil Knievil: “the best time to kick a man is when he is down.” The great bear raider is correct, especially in these crazy times when so many frauds or near bankrupts seem able to defy gravity as the believers still belief and continue to BOTFD, so providing share price support. But in some cases even the believers are starting to smell the coffee.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced results for its year ended 30th June 2021 emphasising “transformational” progress. So what is this?
Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has published a trading update including news that it “now expects the group will exceed its previous expectations for the full year”. Sounds good!
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced the launch of a new sports nutrition product range, LeanBiome, with a supply & licensing agreement with “a leading global player in beauty & nutrition”. What of a current share price response up to 42.5p?
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced third quarter results and an update including that a Nalunaq project engineering study is on track to be completed by the end of the year and that it is extremely excited by the wider exploration potential of its assets and looks forward to also being able to demonstrate the potential value of its non-gold, strategic mineral assets in due course.
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) states it is pleased to announce its quarterly and nine-month results for the period ended 30th September 2021, with it emphasising “another strong quarter… robust operational performance, combined with strong copper prices, has seen our EBITDA for the first nine months of 2021 more than triple from the amount generated during the same period of 2020”. So what of a now more than 400p share price?
Shares in the fraud Chill Brands (CHLL) have raced ahead today by 53% to 17.25p on the back of news of a new distribution deal. Yup, the market cap has gone up by c£12 million on the back of a transaction worth £275,000 or less. Insane. You bet. But of course Chill does not give any numbers in its release and morons buying this stock have not done the maths or checked out Google Earth. I have, as you can see below.
Having been falling from early this month, shares in SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) are currently further lower after it announced “OptiBiotix Health Plc has placed 3,636,363 ordinary shares in SkinBioTherapeutics with new and existing institutional investors at a price of 55 pence per share”. With SkinBioTherapeutics CEO Stuart Ashman though arguing “the company is going from strength to strength” and “it is important to attract new investors who are keen to come on board to support us in the next stage of the company’s development, as a commercial entity”, why the further share price fall?
‘The best time to kick a man is when he is down’ is a quote from my friend the bear raider Simon Cawkwell, aka Evil Knievil. It is not a reference to individuals who have fallen on bad times for Cawkwell is, sometimes, not that uncharitable, but to shares in companies hitting new lows.
Until recently the playbook for activist short sellers was relatively straightforward. You spend a lot of time and money researching your target. You write a punchy report explaining your thesis in a manner designed to persuade even the most mentally challenged fund manager that they are holding a ticking bomb. You release your report at a time of your choosing and in the resulting share price fall you maybe take a bit off the table to cover your costs. If the report is well researched, accurate, and compelling, it is a reasonable and, in my view, perfectly respectable way of making a living which is beneficial to the integrity of the market in an age where regulators and enforcement agencies are greatly enfeebled.
BP (BP.) has announced third quarter of the year results, emphasising it is delivering significant cash to strengthen finances, growing distributions to shareholders and investing in strategic transformation.
Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced for its half-year it is more than offsetting significant input cost increases, helped by continuing strong structural drivers of growth.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced it has commercially launched its probiotic food supplement to help alleviate the symptoms associated with psoriasis, AxisBiotix-Ps.
I am all for patience when it comes to investing, but the forbearance of small retail investors when it comes to continual promises made and broken by small and disreputable companies never ceases to amaze. Amazon and Apple are two examples, often cited by dreamers, of plucky minnows which struggled for years before exploding into being behemoths. If they can do it, the thinking seems to be, why not anyone? Give them more time and money.
Platinum group metals recovery company in South Africa, Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced results for the first quarter of its year, including “net profit of $8.6 million… Cash balance of $132.7 million”. Good news?
Since, a few weeks ago, Matt Earl launched his first bear dossier on Civitas Social Housing (CSH) its shares have fallen by 25% to 91p. The company did issue a response to the first dossier published by the bear raider known as “the Dark Destroyer”.
The latest results from pawnbroker H&T Group (HAT) noted Covid-19 related trading restrictions and reduced high street footfall impact but they still showed profitable resilience and noted growing confidence. We can understand why, given the strains raging inflation will put on household budgets, and predict a return to the 380p+ share price levels of early 2020. At a current 283p offer price (279p when we tipped it two weeks ago) and up to 290p, this is a recovery BUY.
Early stage financial services businesses investment company, B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for its half-year ended 31st July 2021 and that it “continue to believe in our strategy of investing in people with ambition, and a track record of delivering within their sectors, and this again has been borne out by these results”.
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has published a third quarter update including that it is now increasing its production guidance for the year. This sounds like good news.
Oh dear oh dear. AIM-listed jam-tomorrow IoT investment company Tern (TERN) principal investee Device Authority has just posted amended FY20 accounts at Companies House. Given that the original accounts were signed off back in January but not posted until 21 September 2021, that looks like carelessness – as do the missing Notes to the Accounts. And then there is an increased £4.6 million liability, apparently owed to nobody!
You can get borrow and you should. There is a collapsing long position on margin but the real reason to go aggressively short of Chill Brands (CHLL) is the deafening sound of silence. Let me explain.
Floorcoverings distributor Headlam (HEAD) has announced that Steve Wilson has “stepped down” as Chief Executive and from the company having “been instrumental in the company’s success throughout his 30 years with Headlam, the last five years as Chief Executive”. Bad news or time for a change?
Imperial Brands (IMB) is “pleased to report the business continues to perform well… on track to deliver our full-year results in line with expectations”. That suggests upside potential from a below 1500p share price.
Life sciences compounds developer OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced results for the first of calendar 2021, emphasising “sales of LPLDL and SlimBiome of £1.076m, a 44.5% increase over H1:2020… pleasing given the continued uncertain global economic environment and challenges of the subsequent waves of COVID-19, particularly in countries like India and the USA”. The shares have currently responded slightly higher, to 50p.
In the last week shares in Cineworld (CNE) rose 25% from 66p to 83p, adding around £230 million to its market cap. To put that number in perspective it represents more that its entire profit before tax in 2019, the last full year without Covid.
Following half-year results from Jadestone Energy (JSE) recently, we noted the financial improvement despite challenges and that with the growth potential suggested the 77p share price too harsh an appraisal. There is now a “Montara H6 well successfully brought onstream”-titled announcement and the shares are further higher.
As things stand at 69p, we are 289% ahead on this share tip but there is much more to come. SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced its probiotic food supplement to help alleviate the symptoms of psoriasis, AxisBiotix-Ps, is to launch on 29th October, following highly positive results from its consumer study in May and key commercialisation activities since.
I sart with a chat I had with my friend Lucian Miers on Demetri Kofinas and financial nihilism. Honest, it is more interesting than it sounds. Then to gold and why one might be losing faith. Lucian has. Then to two stocks I own Kefi (KEFI) and MyHealthchecked (MHC) and one that I do not and which is on its way down the plughole: the fraud Chill Brands (CHLL).
Two or three weeks ago I clambered off the fence and explicitly told you to short Eurasia Mining (EUA) at 28p. The shares are now 23.6p in the middle. So far so good for we bears but the company is still valued by the market, on a fully diluted basis as there are loads of in the money options, at well over £700 million which is insane. A placing announced yesterday is the cue to add to your shorts.
Miner in Azerbaijan, Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced results for the first half of 2021 and that “FY 2021 Production guidance of between 64,000 to 72,000 gold equivalent ounces remains unchanged”.
I have identified Tern (TERN) previously as a compelling short as nothing it says makes sense, the stated NAV is about 9p at best and the shares are 19.25p. But that NAV is bogus! The main component of NAV ,just over 50% is a holding in Device Authority but there is a bombshell out there Tern is not telling folks about. Device looks to be insolvent.
I am up early thanks to a new nightmare. Can anyone interpret it? Are you out there Joseph? I then look at saint Vin Murria and Summerway Capital (SWC). Then I discuss Lucian Miers big Joe Retail toxic four (Chill Brands, Supply@ME Capital, Tern and Eurasia), why things are going his way, which will crack first and why and what the fallout will be. A regular bearcast will follow later.
This weekend’s short letter on the N50 website will look at a company whose shares you can trade. Today, I am feeling pretty proud of my take-down of Standard Listed Umuthi (UHS) whose March 4 IPO was to have valued it at £368 million. A series of articles HERE has seen its sole NED resign and nobody now seems to doubt that this is a complete fraud with no business and that the revelations are truly shocking. Sadly, as it is an obvious zero, its shares are suspended but there are lessons. Here are 10 signs that this was a fraud:
Jadestone Energy (JSE) has announced its results for the first half of 2021, reaffirming full-year production guidance of 11,500-13,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day and anticipating 20,000 boe/d towards the end of the year. We are well up on this 69p offer price share tip but where do we go from here?
Early stage financial services businesses investment company B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has made a trading update for its half-year ended 31st July 2021, including that its “portfolio has performed well during the period, and we expect this to continue through the group’s current financial year”.
Yesterday I was reviewing Lucian Miers’ big 5 small cap shorts with the great bear over breakfast. Breakfast BTW was porridge with homemade stewed apples (from the Welsh Hovel) in cinnamon. In the podcast, I discuss last night’s culinary fare but then probe Lucian on what he sees as critical mid and end points for each of his 5 UK small cap big shorts: Tern (TERN), Versarien (VRS), Chill Brands (CHLL), Supply@ME Capital (SYME) and Eurasia Mining (EUA).
This is my shortest bearcast ever. Having picked Lucian’s brains, I promise you two tomorrow.
On each of the four there is borrow and Lucian is short. There is a 5th where he has a small short but borrow is hard to obtain. I go through all five and explain why they will all see a share price collapse if not a total wipeout.
I start with what should have been Joshua’s first day at school but for the utterly inexcusable laziness of the teachers. Then I mention Versarien (VRS) before moving onto the fraud Chill Brands (CHLL), a bt of CV analysis at Nanosynth (NNN) and a discussion of the latest nonsense from Eurasia Mining (EUA) where again I compare it with Jubilee Metals (JLP).
A half-year results announcement last month from Essentra plc (ESNT) included “we are now trading ahead of 2019 levels with Q2 revenue up by 2.5% LFL”. The market cap at the end of 2019 was £1.13 billion. At a current 287.5p offer price, it is £870 million. It may not be the most exciting company on Earth but that is usually not a bad thing. We regard it as a recovery buy.
Two dogs, covered extensively on Shareprophets.com where i am short are leaving it rather late to come up with the goods. Chill Brands Group (CHLL), formerly Zoetic, has until Tuesday to publish its results to March 2021 (and that’s after a Covid extension) and Supply@Me Capital (SYME) has stated that a trading update is “expected” this month.
I have been a critic of Argo Blockchain (ARB) for an awfully long time. It is run by sharp promoters and backed by some nasty spivs. And it seems to me that it has failed woefully to address the issues flagged up a few weeks ago in the recent Boatman bear dossier HERE.
A “Guidance and Operations Update” from Jadestone Energy (JSE) notes work necessary to restore production from the Skua subsea wells and the revised cost of the H6 infill well at Montara, where the well has been sidetracked due to mechanical equipment issues, as well as that it is still awaiting clarity on Maari offshore New Zealand government approvals timing. However, “average full-year 2021 production guidance of between 11,500-13,500 boe/d remains unchanged”.
I preface this by saying that Verditek (VDTK) is a company that can lie about winning take or pay contracts just to get a placing away. In the end, the “customer” – and I use the word loosely – neither takes or pays. So anything it says in an RNS, even its cash balance, is not something that I would necessarily believe. But to make life simple, I give it the benefit of the doubt and assume its stated cash balances are, more or less, correct.
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has delivered a “Business Update” including that the commercial launch of AxisBiotix-Ps is on track for Q4 and has further encouraging potential, that SkinBiotix manufacturing scale-up with Croda (CRDA) is progressing to schedule and 30th June year-end cash totalled £4.6 million. Sounds good.
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) has announced a maiden JORC Mineral Resource for its Zafar polymetallic deposit in the Gedabek contract area, Azerbaijan, which it argues is “extremely encouraging and will help underpin the company’s future long-term production growth”.
On February 3 2021 I published a damning 60 Red flag dossier on a fraud called Zoetic (ZOE) with the shares at 76p. The response was utterly poisonous.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced further growth with an agreement to extend the territories of its deal with Seed Health.
BP (BP.) has announced second quarter of the year results emphasising “generating value for our shareholders today while we transition the company for the future”. Sounds good, but what’s the detail?
The good news is, and I thank so many generous Shareprophets readers, that Ian Westbrook has – as you can see here – raised £20,000 and so, in January, the loathsome pig Neill Ricketts will get to sweat in Court. I shall be preparing my deposition for Ian’s barrister next week. Natch the Bulletin Board cultists were driven to a frenzy of rage by this.
Early in July we noted shares in Europe’s leading floorcoverings distributor Headlam Group (HEAD) looked a recovery buy at a 495p offer price, considering there clear potential for outperformance of forecasts based on the trading momentum and the operational improvement programme being implemented. A “Pre-Close Trading Update” sees the shares currently at 528p. Is there still further upside?
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has made a “Trading and commercial update” including that sales are ahead of its expectations for the first six months of the year and that it “believes it is in a strong position to meet or exceed its full year sales forecast”. The shares have currently responded up to 49.5p but there looks much further to go.
International staffing group Impellam (IPEL) has announced results for the first half of the year and that it is seeing “increasing positivity in our customer demands for our managed service and talent solutions across our markets”. This sounds encouraging.
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has announced second quarter of the year results, including stating “strong commercial execution” and “we are likely to deliver full-year Adjusted EPS towards the better end of our guidance range”. So where now for the shares?, with they currently having responded back up to 1400p.
DS Smith (SMDS) “is pleased to announce the proposed sale of its De Hoop paper mill in the Netherlands to De Jong Packaging for a cash consideration of €50 million (c. £43 million)”. Good news from this leading provider of sustainable paper-based packaging?
Bulls and bears in tech investment company Tern plc (TERN) can at least agree on one thing: the key to the investment case is its holding in Device Authority Ltd (DA Ltd), a provider of security solutions for IOT products. Tern holds 56.8% of DA Ltd’s equity and has to date lent it £3.1 million in convertible loan stock. The stake is carried at £12.8 million on the balance sheet (valuing the whole company at £22.5 million), representing 58% of the value of the portfolio. It is DA Ltd’s perceived potential that has seen Tern’s shares trade at multiples of its book value and been the hook upon which it has hung the majority of its 16 placings to date.
As I predicted it would in my last piece, Tern plc (TERN) came back to the trough last week with yet another placing (its 16th since it emerged from the ruins of Silvermere Energy in 2014) and the shares predictably sold off, causing a few rumblings of discontent among its shareholders, 100% of whom (bar management) are retail. But before I lay into the company and its management, let me present you with a fun fact regarding dilution, a dirty word for most equity investors.
We previously updated on Wm Morrison Supermarkets (MRW) including noting Apollo Global Management stating that “it is, on behalf of certain investment funds managed by it, in the preliminary stages of evaluating a possible offer for Morrisons” meant that we could still see further upside potential with a competitive bid situation developing. There has now been a further announcement from Apollo.
A trading update earlier this month from Headlam Group (HEAD) included “total revenue for the year-to-date is now in-line with the 2019 comparator, having been slightly below for the four months to 30 April 2021” and “the company’s Operational Improvement Programme delivering revenue growth opportunities and cost improvements”. This combination suggests there is further recovery value in the shares.
It is time for yet another ouzo! As long suggested on this fine website, AIM-listed jam-tomorrow IoT investment company Tern plc (TERN) has done yet another discounted placing to raise c.£2 million (before expenses) at 18.8p per share – and launched a PrimaryBid offer (which you should definitely ignore) in an attempt to raise the same again. But the joke is that it seems it was the Bears to the rescue!
FTSE-100 pharma and healthcare company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is currently engaged in somewhat of a battle with well known activist investor Elliott Advisors. However, that is about the level of change as change is coming and Elliott is only involved as it “believes GSK has a substantial value creation opportunity – 45% upside in its share price – ahead of Consumer Health separation and greater beyond”. We concur that there is an attractive value creation opportunity here…
At 425p, shares in fully fibre-based, innovative packaging for consumer goods company DS Smith (SMDS) are well up on our 321.8p offer price November recommendation but is there more to come, particularly following results for its year ended 30th April 2021 and “accelerated opportunities a post-Covid-19 world offers”?…
AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced an update on progress at its flagship Nalunaq project and that it has also applied for a new exploration licence in Greenland.
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has made AGM and Reserves statements, including emphasising “substantial, unexploited mineral resources in the vicinity of our modern 15 Mtpa mill and related infrastructure, together with a very prospective land package with world class exploration potential, offer compelling opportunities for continued growth of our company”. So what’s led to this statement?
When Chris Bailey returns to the non-Tom leaderboard, he reurns in style. Bid discussions at Morrison Chris Bailey is number one or number two if you include the Bearcast and Tom’s new shareshow. The Pub Quiz also sneaks onto the list at number ten. Just saying. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.
The latest results from staffing group Impellam (IPEL) included it emphasising “we are well placed to take advantage of a return to growth”. We have longer-term macroeconomic concerns, added to by the response to Covid-19, but do accept there is strong upcoming macroeconomic recovery potential. Many stocks in the recruitment sector have already responded, doubling and much more but here a current 294p to buy compares to a low of 220p and we see recovery potential back to 375p+. That makes the shares a recovery buy.
Lucian is short of Eurasia Mining (EUA) and for a host of reasons I think he is right to be short. One of those reasons is a mystery shareholder. Lucian has written to Eurasia’s boss Christian Schaffalitzky and his letter, still not having received a response after several days, follows:
Recommending shares in J Sainsbury (SBRY) as an Income portfolio buy in November at a 199.7p offer price, we noted grocery and general merchandise sales had remained strong to date in its second half of the year and suggested a 260p+ share price achievable. Little more than 7 months later the shares are already nearly there.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced its 2020 calendar year results, emphasising improving financials and that it is well placed to exploit a now established low overhead, sustainable business model. It is what we learned in a chat with Steve O’Hara that makes us flag this up as such a STRONG BUY.
Insurance businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) has announced results for its year ended 31st January 2021, emphasising “total shareholder return of 10.1% for the year including the dividend paid in July… remain optimistic that we will be able to secure scalable and high growth investments, which will deliver substantial shareholder returns over time”. That sounds good to us.
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, sparky interviews with two great bears and some thoughts from myself. First up is the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers followed by David Scott of Andrews Gwynne. Stocks to short and buy, asset allocation, macro-economics, it is all covered You can access the show HERE
Lucian Miers wrote about one aspect of Eurasia Mining (EUA) that smells all wrong to him the other day. My friend and colleague is yet to get any satisfactory answers on that matter. But here is another oddity.
The most read non-Tom article is Who owns Queeld Ventures which has a stake valued at £73m in Eurasia Mining? by Lucien Miers at number four, or number 11 including Bearcasts and Tom’s new shareshow. Which one is the best of the week? Tell me in the comments.
Even in these crazy times when shares in insolvent frauds go up, some things just have to be a slam dunk short. The good news with this one is that there is borrow. Lucian Miers is already short so I suggest you join him in taking free money off morons who are buying Tern (TERN).
SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced the results of the AxisBiotix-PsT consumer study of patients suffering from psoriasis and it says that it will now be seeking regulatory approval for the product as a food supplement in parallel in the UK, US and Europe… targeting a commercial launch of theAxisBiotix-Ps™ product in Q4 2021”. Do the maths! This is going to be massive.
They say that the best way to rob a bank is to own one and it is with a slight feeling of queasiness that I have been recommending buying the shares of Ferrexpo (FXPO), whose founder, Kostyantyn Zhevago, has been accused in some quarters of doing just that (fortunately the shares have done quite well). For balance however, I am short the shares of Eurasia Mining (EUA), which also appears to have connections with a party accused of the same skulduggery.
I start with thoughts about yesterday’s walk, especial thanks to Jonathan Price, Steve Moore, Robert Lewis and Lucian Miers and his son, the other five rogue bloggers who managed all 34.2 miles. Lucian as the logistics meister who also got another stack of relatives to join us deserves especial credit. Thank you to all who sponsored us, it is not too late to donate here. Then onto what I see as corruption, the misuse of taxpayer cash by so many in the corporate world. It is legal but immoral but I sense no one really cares which saddens me.
I seem to have pulled some muscles in my back and shoulder and am in a bit of pain which will make tomorrow’s 34.2 mile walk from Winchester Cathedral to Woodlarks even more “fun”. But walk I shall as the quite amazing charity said that it needed to cover its costs in this year when its revenues have been eliminated by lockdown by us raising £48,000. So I will walk and I will finish. I won’t be alone but ask that you do your part and sponsor me as we seek to raise that £48,000. To those who have already done so I say thank you, to the rest of you…
Being a bear over the past year has, as I have noted many times before, been painful. You expose a company for being a fraud and its shares go up. You reveal that it has lied to investors and…its shares go up. You demonstrate that it is trading poorly and is running out of cash, its shares dip but then, post an oversubscribed placing, start to roof it again. It is unnatural. But it is the way of life in the last blow off stages of a bull market.
Miner in Azerbaijan Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) “is pleased to announce its final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2020” and emphasises “exciting development opportunities”. Though don’t they all say that?
Shares in the Standard Listed fraud that is Zoetic International (ZOE) are, at 56p mid, almost 50% off their all-time highs achieved at peak pump earlier this year. To have suffered such slippage amid a bull market for pot and small cap stocks takes some doing and is, in itself, something of a red flag. The posh but extremely dim and morally bankrupt PR man for this firm, Mr. Henry Harrison-Topham, tried to steady the nerves of the fools invested here with a trading update but it was no good. It was a case study in where what the company did NOT say serves as a red flag.
Atalaya Mining (ATYM) has announced what it describes as “strong financial results achieved in Q1 and look forward to the rest of the year, with confidence”. How strong?
With Gift Aid, we are either at £30,000 or just £1500 short of that on Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks. Lucian is walking the 34 mile course today so think of the rain and please donate HERE. My friend Malcolm Stacey is a naughty old bull. I discuss his column today HERE and why he is just wrong.
Kazakhstan gold miner AltynGold (ALTN) “is pleased to announce its 1Q21 production results and financial update”, and the shares have currently responded approaching 10% higher to 172.5p. So what’s the news?
On banking near 300% gains on Jubilee Metals (JLP) earlier this year, we noted still significant positives but management actions which were not comfortably supportable. On fundamentals, at 20p, Jubilee still looks to have 10% upside, or arguably more, which is why Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore remain shareholders but we cannot, in good conscience, tip shares in a company where there are such clear corporate governance issues. So, on that basis, the following looks a good replacement for it .
Of course, there are some instances when it is appropriate to take legal action against some critic. If, for instance, the attacks are against wives and children, there is a threat of actual body harm or the allegations are just so outrageous (paedophilia for example) then a company might justifiably take action. But simply to bring in lawyers, who are always expensive, to try to silence someone who criticises a company’s business model, or its valuation, is a monumental red flag.
I wrote as a slightly miffed shareholder: AEX Gold (AEXG) has announced its full year 2020 results and a further strategic update and I have had a good long chat with CEO Eldur Olafsson. Previously-announced project development delay disappointment looks to be in the price and the potential of the project to still commence initial production by the end of next year does not. Then there is the possibility of equity dilution.
Noting that “there is now an extensive growing body of research demonstrating direct links between the microbiome and the immune system, and consequently skin health”, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) announced, a couple of weeks ago, initiation of a research programme with the University of Manchester. This is good news but not the elephant in the room!
Jadestone Energy (JSE) is pleased to announce an agreement to acquire an interest in Peninsular Malaysia – and we can understand why.
J Sainsbury (SBRY) has announced results for its year ended 6th March 2021 and that it has “carried good underlying trading momentum into the new financial year and started the year strongly”.
On the whole, it probably does make sense to avoid investing in companies run by rogues but if one is to break that rule, it pays to back a rogue who knows how to generate cash. Perhaps rogue is too strong a term for Kostyantyn Zhevago, founder and majority shareholder of Iron ore miner Ferrexpo PLC (FXPO), so let us just say he is a colourful Ukrainian entrepreneur, one of the original oligarchs who, finding himself in the right place at the right time, acquired some promising assets for a song and listed his company in London in 2007.
Given that it has lied on an industrial scale to investors, regulators and consumers and managed first half sales of just £54,000, I think it will not surprise anyone terribly that I view the fair value of shares in Zoetic International (ZOE) as 0p. But I published all the evidence of the malfeasance and parlous financials and the shares still headed to well over 100p valuing this company at more than £200 million. That was two months ago. Now they are 57p to sell and falling fast. If you can short you should do so as this should be a penny stock really very soon.
Verditek (VDTK) is a company that I have exposed as a serial liar and warned about many times before and my bearishness has been vindicated. Last August, at peak ramp, the shares stood at 18p. Egged on by disgraced share tipster Mike Walters, some folks paid almost 20p a pop. Today the spread is 3.7p-3.9p but even that values this business at £12.8 million which is insane as fair value is clearly zero. The valuation tells you everything you need to know about the insane market in which we operate.
Precious metals companies investor Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPM) has announced 2020 results including emphasising that, with now a higher metal pricing environment, “the precious metal miners… look cheaper on a P/NAV basis than they did pre COVID” (explorers only constituting 11.2% of this fund). So, despite a current 48.5p share price comparing to a 27.6p offer price March 2020 share tip, still an opportunity? Of course it is!
Iron ore pellet producer in Ukraine, Ferrexpo (FXPO) has announced a first quarter 2021 production report which includes it noting some ongoing pelletiser upgrade work impact though also that there has been some additional production, in terms of high-grade concentrate…
An “update on progress towards net debt target”-titled announcement from BP (BP.), which includes a claim of “earlier than anticipated delivery of disposal proceeds combined with very strong business performance during the first quarter”. This sounds good…
Noting that “there is now an extensive growing body of research demonstrating direct links between the microbiome and the immune system, and consequently skin health”, SkinBioTherapeutics (SBTX) has announced initiation of a research programme with the University of Manchester.
We are now up to eight rogue bloggers for Woodlarks with J, the son of reader Jonathan Price joining the party. That means one more person for the “having to talk to Dan Levi rota” so spreading the misery of hearing about the evils of Brexit and why disgraced Guardian fantasist Carole Cadwalladr is a genius, more widely. That is all good news. But think of how we will suffer on the day, even if it is now for less than 2 hours each and make a donation HERE. Meanwhile we continue with our training walks. As I look at the snow falling here in Wales I am glad I did my weekly walk yesterday. But here is a photo from Robert in Cornwall as he made it up to 15 miles.
As Q1 draws to a close, I have few regrets about having been inactive in the market particularly on the short side.
Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) announced results for the 2020 calendar year emphasising “record revenue of US$829 million… generated significant free cash flow, of US$142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of US$104 million” but also ‘impacted guidance’. A recovery buy?
I discuss Joshua’s future career, gooseberry planting and two discussions and missives to regulators. Then the three UK shorts of Lucian Miers: TUI (TUI), Cineworld (CINE) and Versarien (VRS). then a five figure sell in my SIPP and how the cash was redeployed with a buy to treble!
Ferrexpo (FXPO) has announced results for the 2020 calendar year and that it expects to deliver a further increase in production this year. It is all looking good…
Following recent Nalunaq project development delay disappointment, AEX Gold (AEXG) has noted progress in reviewing the development plan and of exploration work.
To those folks who have made out like bandits in the current bull market, I ask you to be especially generous. Woodlarks needs your help. This year’s rogue bloggers walk is planned and is on a new route. We will go the extra mile with our walking and we ask you to do the same with your donations.
Notwithstanding the lock-in shenanigans with Optibiotix (OPTI) discussed HERE, I am more bullish than ever. The results from Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) for the six months to 31 December 2020 came out on Monday. I apologise for the delayed update but I needed to ponder a while. What we read a few days ago was just excellent. Hence this upgrade.
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced a “Commercial strategy update” which shows strong progress in its strategy to initially build sales and brand presence and then move up the value chain by selling more product than ingredients and commercialising further compounds. We’ve also had a catch up chat with CEO Steve O’Hara. This should be THE YEAR when profits come close to or exceed £1 million.
