Another week gone and here are the most read and most listened-to articles and Bearcasts on ShareProphets over the past seven days. The most read non-Quiz, non-Tom article last week is by Lucien Miers, Crunch Time for the Tingo Three, at No 2 or No 7 including Bearcasts.

The most read non-Quiz, non-Tom article last week is by Chris Bailey, Is hotel love peaking? And elsewhere, I still like the not particularly understood distribution and more world of SIG, at No 23 or No 23 including Bearcasts.

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its year ended 30th April 2023 and that it has confidence ahead. Is there still good upside from a current around 280p share price then?

The Pub Quiz was number one last week, and that's very satisfying even if it only happened becuase I had to reload as I screwed up on 2 of the 10 questions. But the most read non-Quiz, non-Tom article last week was  Short gold, I am by Lucian Miers at No 2 or No 8 including Bearcasts.

The most-read non-quiz non-Tom article this week is from Lucian Miers with  ‘Thoughts on the FTX scandal and a Short idea from one of the few to emerge from it with credit’ at No 3 or No 8 including Bearcasts.

September-recommended at a 180p offer price manufacturer of collagen products for the food industry Devro (DVO) has issued an update including that “current trading and the full year outlook are slightly ahead of the board's expectations, underpinned by a robust performance and foreign exchange tailwinds”… but, more significantly, has also announced a recommended offer... at 316.1p per share!

Back in May I became mildly obsessed by Sam Bankman Fried (aka SBF), now a household name as the new Bernie Madoff. This was after I read a feature on him in the weekend FT, in its Lunch with the FT column in which celebrities from all walks of life who are newsworthy at time are interviewed over a meal at the FT’s expense. The Silicon Valley tech geeks in this series tend to order the most repulsive woke food and talk the most bullshit and generally be the most dislikeable but SBF really took the biscuit in this regard, and I spent several hours trying to find a way to short anything to do with him, unfortunately with no result. Since the implosion of FTX I have been addicted to following this lurid story and all students of fraud should spend time on this case study of folly, greed and incompetance. It has everything (certainly sex and drugs and maybe even rock and roll) and gives out a great many examples as to the crazy environment that we have been living in for so long.

Speciality agriculture and engineering group Carr's (CARR) has issued an update including that “the expected completion date for the group's audit and publication of the group's FY22 audited results is now mid-January 2023, later than the 3 January 2023 deadline required” but that it “has continued to perform strongly”, so what’s going on?

On developer of “compounds to tackle obesity, cardiovascular disease and diabetes”, OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) we’ve previously noted ‘some delays in delivery but a sales recovery Buy’ – including with “product launches by Apollo Pharmacies in India and restocking by some partners with sales normalising… as in previous years, there was no contribution in this period from licence or royalty payments which tend to be received in the second half”. We’ve since again spoken to CEO Steve O'Hara.

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced results for its year ended 30^th September 2022 and that it is “well placed to build on our track record of delivery over the next three years, improving returns and creating sustainable growth in shareholder value”.

Shares in Tesco (TSCO) were above 270p as recently as August but have fallen back significantly as it faces clear macro challenges. However, it has a long track-record across economic conditions and we consider the share price fall has been too extreme.

Before the market meltup, shares in Beyond Meat (BYND) closed at an all-time low of $11.90 on Wednesday night after releasing a disastrous Q3 earnings report. Is this a chance to buy into the BBC's favourite Nasdaq stock? No! Au contraire.

BP (BP.) has announced third quarter results emphasising “net debt fell for the tenth successive quarter; we are investing with discipline; and we are delivering on our commitment to shareholder distributions - announcing a further $2.5 billion share buyback”. So what of a now slightly further higher 486.45p share price?

Sylvania Platinum (SLP) has announced “best quarterly production since the COVID-lockdowns in early 2020. This increase in production ounces and the 2% higher PGM basket price recorded in the quarter, resulted in stronger profits”. The shares have currently responded up to 92p and there looks more to go.

In my experience it is often better to short a company’s shares when they have already fallen sharply and it has indicated that its equity is worthless. After all, the upside for a short that goes to zero is 100% whether you open it at 100p or 10p.

Previously writing on early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) last month with the shares at 302p we concluded that they were still a Buy ahead of results for its half-year ended 31^st July 2022. The shares previously closed at 284p but are now 304p on the back of the results.

A couple of years ago I did a podcast suggesting that the share price of ITM Power (ITM) was truly bonkers.  In the mad rush to buy “green” investments it then got a bit more "truly bonkers". That is the problem with bubbles, they can just keep on expanding far longer than most folks think, defying all logic.  And green energy clearly is a bubble.

Shares in Amaroq Minerals (AMRQ), formerly AEX Gold (AEXG), were above 40p in August before recently falling back to below 35p. They’re now back above 35p and we look for further recovery on upcoming news flow and sentiment improving.

It has been a stockmarket darling for years but plant hire group Ashtead (AHT) is a short at a current 4230p share price, around £19 billion market cap, and here is why.

Imperial Brands (IMB) has announced year ended 30^th September 2022 “trading in line with expectations with growth in aggregate market share for top-five priority markets” and that a strengthened balance sheet and achievement of target leverage are to enable the immediate start of an ongoing share buyback programme. The shares have responded positively, up to 1940p, so what’s the detail?

In these troubled economic times, how about a proven defensive investment offering a dividend yield of above 5%?

You can sometimes get some borrow in Versarien (VRS) and if you can you should even with the shares, which were once almost 200p, having slumped to below 15p. The next collapse will happen and happen fairly soon. It is a when not an if.

Essentra (ESNT) has issued “Sale of Filters and Packaging Completion of Sale” and “Appointment of New Chief Executive”-titled announcements and the shares have responded up by more than 15% to above 210p – Mr Market says it sounds like good news then.

Some folks said that I did not give them enough notice about ShareStock 2022 so they were on holiday, could not find anywhere to stay or had accepted a prior engagement. So for 2023 I am giving you almost a year’s notice of an even more unusual event! We start with some amazing new speakers:

I start with a sort of Lucian Miers-style checklist for short candidates. How many boxes does Bidstack (BIDS) tick?

While there is disagreement among the investment experts about whether inflation, stagflation or outright recessionary deflation is on the horizon, there seems to be a consensus that times are going to be tough for a the rest of this year and 2023.

I start the podcast with a few macro musings then onto the Lucian Miers stock check list for bears and bulls before looking at Argo Blockchain (ARB) and how it could be a zero by Christmas.

Two weeks ago today at Sharestock, I spoke about Victoria Carpets Plc  (VCP) and outlined the reasons why I thought it still had the makings of a good short, despite its fall from £12 in January when I last wrote on it. Although the stock closed yesterday at just 427p, the share price gyrations of the past fortnight underline why I stated that right now might not be  a great time to open the short. The shares raced ahead post Sharestock but are now 53p below the share price then.

Previously writing on OptiBiotix Health (OPTI), earlier this month we noted prior delays in delivery from larger deals but that orders are already coming through and being booked as second half sales. Now some clear evidence of this with an announcement that the company’s GoFigure meal replacement shakes and powdered beverage shots have now been officially launched by India's Apollo Hospitals & Pharmacies.

Wood Group (WG.) has announced its results for the first half of 2022 and that it expects an improved performance in the second half, including being helped by an improvement in its Turbines joint ventures.

Essentra (ESNT) has announced results for the first half of 2022 and that it “continue to see strength in our order book, providing encouragement as we move into the second half”.

Early stage financial services businesses investor B.P. Marsh (BPM) has announced it remains confident it will continue with its historic growth trajectory and deliver attractive returns for investors, including a dividend per share “at least” maintained at last year’s 2.78p for the next two years.

In today's Bearcast, I discuss banksters’ bonuses and the evil Tories, Made.com (MADE), Checkit (CKT), musicMagpie (MMAG), Versarien (VRS) and THG (THG).

Floorcoverings distributor Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced results for the first half of 2022 and that trading resilience continues with it remaining on track to meet market expectations for the year.

Sadly, photographer C did not hang around for the cold salmon, stuffed marrows, leeks and new potatoes with mint all from the garden. Nor for the home made ice cream and for the drinking which continued until 9 PM. And for some of us even longer as home made nettle beer was opened up inside the house. Next year he must stay for that and so can you. The date is now fixed as September 23 2023 and we have a new really big name headline speaker. But back to 2022.

Folks registered in the farmyard and headed through the main barn and up onto the new 35 yard by 35 yard elevated lawn ending with a Ha Ha where Sharestock took place. In the pictures below you see the tents, folks enjoying breakfast of croissants with butterand home made damson and blackberry jams and heading to the stand manned by my son Joshua who was obtaining an early lesson in the joys of capitalism. All profits on the stand go to his ice cream fund.

Gold ended the week at $1717 – hardly moved from last week’s $1713. I, on the other hand, took a trip to Wales – by 30 yards – to attend ShareStock 2022 courtesy of ShareProphets’ esteemed leader Tom Winnifrith. It was an interesting affair - especially as Tom Winnifrith threatened to hurl Optibiotix' (OPTI) head honcho into the river Dee!

Back in November of last year the CEO of Cake Box (CBOX) sold 3 million shares at 350p to mug fund managers. That means that over the past two years he has trousered £16.4 million at 170p and 350p. Lucky him. The company, which I have called out for months as a slam dunk car crash waiting to happen, has recently served up a horrific profit warning and its shares touched 90p. But then the CEO invested £250,000 at 121p and hey presto the shares are now 142p – more than halfway back to the pre-warning 180p level. This is absurd.

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has issued an AGM update including a trading statement and that Finance Director Adrian Marsh has informed the company of his intention to retire on a successor being in place.

Shares in Cineworld (CINE) are rocketing. They were down to 2p. Today they are more than 50% ahead at just under 7p, valuing this company at £90 million. On the BBs folks are talking 10p and 20p. They have not been this excited and screamed “burn shorters burn” since they piled inro Petropavlovsk (POG) just before it went bust. Or Thomas Cook, shares in which surged from 4p to 14p in the last fortnight before it went bust!

Next time TUI (TUI) threatens to go bust the German Government will be in no position to bail it out given how many other large German companies will be on their uppers by this winter. So says Lucian Miers who is short of the stock in a material way.

Lucian Miers may have become a big fan of Cake Box’s (CBOX) egg-free mega calorie cream cakes but it seems that others are taking a different view. You have been repeatedly warned that this was a disaster in waiting and today there is a catastrophic profits warning and it is only going to get worse. How jolly glad the CEO and his Mrs who sold 3 million shares at 350 to poor dumb sheeple fund managers last November and 3.75 million 170p in September 2020 will be to have banked £16.88 million as the shares are now just 98p. And things will get worse.

Packaging group Macfarlane (MACF) has announced results for the first half of 2022 and that it expects to deliver another year of profit growth.

It is just 12 days to Sharestock when 70-80 folks will spend the day in a tent on a raised garden on the banks of the River Dee. There will be free drinks all day and up to four meals of locally produced food. There is salmon and pike fishing, prize croquet but this day is for those who want to make more money from shares. It will be fun and entertaining with no speaker, least of all me, pulling their punches.

B2B video streaming technology company Aferian (AFRN) has announced results for its half year ended 31^st May 2022 and confidence in second half prospects.

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced that it now expects half-year sales in its new structure to be materially lower than expected and, though it expects sales normalising in the second half and healthy growth next year, the current year is to now be “insufficient to make up the H1 deficit”. We profusely apologise for the short-term disappointment though, having spoken to the company, what to do now with the shares down at 20p to buy, a £17.6 million market cap?

It s just 19 days to Sharestock and I bought the big tent for it yesterday!. It will not just be about shares to short. Peter Hambro will talk about gold and how to play it. Chris Bailey will talk about making money from long only value investing in a bear market and 3 CEOs will face a 15 minute grilling from me, including Optibiotix boss Steve O’Hara and Cathal Friel of Open Orphan. But the short sellers presenting are legends.

Thungela Resources (TGA) has announced results for the first half of 2022, noting “profit for the reporting period of R9.6 billion in a volatile operating environment (H1 2021: R351 million)”. This has currently helped the shares up to around 1500p, so how does the value look now?

Bear raider Miles Dyson and I chatted the other day. Lucian Miers says that - apart from me - Miles is his new best buddy. His work on Audioboom (BOOM) suggesting fabricated user numbers is compelling as you can see here. But last night he unearthed a hammer blow which, as I shall explain below, will have devastating consequences for the share price.

A couple of weeks ago I pondered how Victoria (VCP) would or should respond to a quite devastating bear dossier from Iceberg Research. In a way it has played the attack cleverly but actually its response makes the stock even more of a sell.

Yes it is just 26 days to the most unusual event in the share calendar – ShareStock. On September 10, sixty to eighty folks will be sitting in tents on an elevated lawn by the banks of the River Dee listening to legends from the investment world give talks and them chatting to them informally, one to one, in the drinks tent.

Short selling outfit Iceberg recently published a bear dossier on carpets roll-up play Victoria (VCP), which I reposted on this website HERE. Writing to you from Greece, I am not aware if the deadwood press is taking this matter onwards as what Iceberg wrote was very punchy indeed and I am sure that Victoria’s PR spinners will be using phrases involving the dreaded L word (lawyer) to any of the spineless 4^th Estate hacks who ask questions.

“Can I do my chat with you via video link?” said the least well-known person attending Sharestock on September 10 as a CEO speaker? “No! You are uninvited” said I. He missed the point about this event, it is personal. You can listen to all the speakers on stage but then collar them in the drinks tent before or afterwards for a one to one chat

I should declare that I am a shareholder in this company. I bought 1 share a few years ago so that I could attend its AGM to quiz the management on the catalogue of lies they had told to investors.  Then covid struck. On a properly regulated market Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) would have been given the order of the boot years ago, but this is AIM.

BP (BP.) has announced second quarter and half-year results including a second quarter attributable profit of $9.26 billion and 10% increased dividend per share to $0.06006 and outlook confidence with ongoing supply disruptions in the industry and a relative lack of inventories.

Headlam Group (HEAD) has announced a “pleasing” half year performance and that it “remains on track to meet market expectations for the year”.

GSK plc (GSK) has announced a “slightly better than expected” first-half performance, and the shares have responded up to 1755.8p.

Somebody had the cheek to ask if I will record videos of ShareStock. Er, no!

After Fevertree’s (FEVR) recent profits warning, Lucian Miers says that he has closed his short. Not that he expects the shares to surge higher just that he sees greater opportunities out there for the teddies. I am not so sure.

Last year we banked a more than 40%, less than 7 months, offer-to-bid gain on Wood Group (WG.) at 300.3p. That proved good timing with the shares eventually falling back towards 150p before then recovering to above 250p again. However, they are now available at a 155p offer price and are again a Buy.

I indicated a week or so ago that I was bored by gold’s failure to run higher. Maybe that was a buy signal, as it has, since then, gone up! Is gold a barbarous relic or will it zoom as chaos descends on the West? Peter Hambro has been involved in gold for 50 years - if anyone knows, he knows.

OptiBiotix Health (OPTI) has announced an update on recent scientific and commercial activities, emphasising it is “increasing the range of products, applications, and territories creating the potential to open larger market opportunities”.

It is hard to imagine a more perfect storm than the one that now faces Cineworld (CINE). I know Lucian and I have been telling you to short it for some while, and you will be well in the money if you have followed that advice, with the shares now just 21p. But that is 21p too high, and so it is not to late to open a short or to add to your position.

Previously updating on the UK’s largest pawnbroker and a leading retailer of new and pre-owned jewellery and watches, H&T Group (HAT) we concluded that we continued to look for further news flow to drive a return to an above 350p share price. The shares have now reached further higher than that.

Lucian Miers and I both warned that this would happen as, I think, did the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. Chris Bailey is a non-drinker and disagreed. Never trust a non-drinker, as my pal Evil Knievil (not a non-drinker) would say. On 19 May Fevertree (FEVR) told us to expect flat FY EBITDA of £63 million to £66 million. Today, less than two months later…..

H&T Group (HAT), the UK's largest pawnbroker and a leading retailer of new and pre-owned jewellery and watches, has announced a half-year trading update and an acquisition.

Essentra (ESNT) has announced what it emphasises is “a significant step” to a future as a global leading manufacturer and distributor of components with a clear strategy and significant opportunities to accelerate growth and expand market share. This is with an agreed sale of its Packaging business.

As a Scottish Catholic, Lucian Miers will support Norway this Thursday. I think this is unwise, as we are sitting amongst the Northern Ireland supporters. I'll have to explain to fellow members of the GAWA that Lucian is a Fenian, hence his sudden love-in with the land of Quisling. On shares, I look at Edenville Energy (EDL) and its new board member, Paul Ryan (remember him?). Then, I discuss Central Copper Resources, Cineworld (CINE), and Purplebricks (PURP), which, ceteris paribus, will go bust in a year.

On 4 December 2020, shares in Russia PGM promote, Eurasia Mining (LSE:EUA), hit 40.55p. Morons across the interweb, spurred on by blatant market abuse, pondered what colours their Ferraris would be painted. Today, the shares are just 5p, after dire finals earlier this week. There are two questions Eurasia must answer:

Packaging company DS Smith (SMDS) has announced results for its year ended 30^th April 2022, with it emphasising “a strong improvement in profitability and high cash generation… The new financial year has started well, building on the momentum”. This sounds good.

Structural steel company, Severfield (SFR), has announced results for the year ended 26^th March 2022. Its growth strategy, the company claims, is delivering a record order book, with a broad diversity of sectors, geographies and clients, providing good earnings visibility through 2023 and beyond.

B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM), the specialist investor in early stage financial services businesses, has announced results for its year ended 31^st January 2022, emphasising its growth trajectory despite the current “headwinds for all businesses”.

As we marched on Saturday, the Rogue Bloggers discussed this and that. As he sobered up, even Lucian Miers joined in the conversation, and asked whether he should short Avacta (AVCT). The answer is yes, and here is why.

On February 18, I generated industrial-scale abuse (of me) from anonymous internet warriors. All I did was suggest Shield Therapeutics (STX) as a slam-dunk short, at 25.5p.  The savants insisted, as is usually the case in such circumstances, that I didn’t understand the maths, and should go back to working in a pizza store, etc, etc, etc. The shares are now just 14.6p, and the final collapse is almost upon us. Add to your shorts. Let me explain.